Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

The WTO,ecology, and Russia: The time to make decisions

The relationship between the principle of free trade and nature conservation is one of the most acute and multifaceted problems in international business. The diversity of WTO activities implies the necessity of interdisciplinary studies utilizing the expertise and experience of specialists in international law and ecologists. In this paper, provisions of the WTO set of agreements and procedures for dispute settlement within the WTO framework are considered as applied to environmental protection.     

Closing remarks: novel approaches to complex societal change and sustainability

This paper summarizes some personal impressions of the 7th conference of the International Complex Systems Society, co-organized with “Future Earth”, held in Stockholm on August 24–26, 2017. The main point is that it is urgent and important to consider the sustainability conundrum as long-term, society-driven one, and to place societal dynamics at the core of how we, as a global society, came to this point, how ongoing dynamics are driving us towards a tipping point, and which role the Information and Communication Technology revolution plays in that process. A much wider involvement of the social sciences is essential. This also requires major changes in our thinking about sustainability—we need to develop an approach in which change is the natural state of affairs and societies attempt to impose stability on the dynamics involved. We need to focus on learning from the past, about the present, but above all for the future. And we need to shift from an entity-focused approach to a relational one, which pays more attention to contexts and networks. Other issues raised by such a shift in our thinking are about the role of science, the adoption of complex systems approaches and a few others that the paper points to.     

Watershed development in India. 1. Biophysical and societal impacts

This paper recommends a revision of watershed development policy in India in relation to the planning of development interventions involving agricultural intensification and rainwater harvesting following biophysical and societal impact studies carried out on two watershed development projects in Karnataka. A need for changes in policy has arisen in response to progressive catchments closure at the basin level and declining volumes of water flowing into village level reservoirs (known locally as tanks). Flow reductions have occurred largely as a result of increased agricultural intensification over the past 10–15 years. Field levelling, field bund construction, soil water conservation measures, farm ponds, the increase in areas under horticulture and forestry and the increased abstraction and use of groundwater for irrigation are all contributing factors to reduced flows. Planning methodologies and approaches, which may have been appropriate 20 years ago for planning water harvesting within watershed development projects, are no longer appropriate today. New planning approaches are required which (1) take account of these changed flow conditions and (2) are also able to take account of externalities, which occur when actions of some affect the livelihoods of others who have no control or influence over such activities and which (3) contribute to the maintenance of agreed minimum downstream flows for environmental and other purposes.

Competing societal and ecological demands for groundwater: boundary judgments and convergence mechanisms in the Netherlands

Conflicts between human demands for clean water and terrestrial ecosystems’ needs for water are increasing. Such conflicts are stronger in the case of groundwater, as one of the cleanest forms of drinking water, and are expected to increase in frequency, in the context of population growth and climatic changes. This paper argues that behavioral approaches are essential not only toward understanding how socio-ecological conflicts emerge, but also how they could be overcome. A theoretical the framework is proposed, which suggests that the behaviors/actions of actors who sustain such conflicts can be understood by examining their ‘boundary judgments’ regarding natural resources and sustainability, in interaction with their powers/resources to implement the preferred behaviors. The concept of boundary judgements is rarely used in investigating sustainability conflicts. This concept is operationalized in relation to nature-society conflicts and applied empirically to illuminate the conflict in a case study from the Netherlands. Further, the theoretical framework suggests a parsimonious, yet comprehensive, typology of mechanisms that can be used to change/‘converge’ the behaviors and actions of the actors contributing to the problem, toward conflict closure. These are referred to as convergence mechanisms and can be persuasive, enabling or constraining. The paper concludes with reflections on the practical usefulness of the framework and concretes suggestions for further research, drawing on these convergence mechanisms and their interactions with boundary judgments on natural resources and sustainability.     

Environments,Risks, and the Limits of Representation: Examples from Nuclear Energy and Some Implications of Fukushima

This essay examines examples from the field of nuclear energy, including the 2011 disaster at Fukushima-Daiichi, through perspectives drawn from phenomenology, social systems theory, and constitutive communication theory. The essay argues that although prevailing approaches to nuclear risk analysis and risk communication seek to represent a world of preexisting phenomena, they also fundamentally constitute the world on which decision-makers, organizations, and communities act. Representations of nuclear risk are inevitably and problematically limited, with important implications for policy, practice, and communicative action.     

Attributable risk, probability of causation, assigned shares, and uncertainty

Calculations of attributable risks, probabilities of causation, and assigned shares attracted increasing interest recently, particularly since the enactment of the Orphan Drug Act. Although efforts have been limited mostly to radiation as the toxic agent, the concept is general to all toxicants. In this paper, the systematic and random uncertainties in calculations of assigned shares are reviewed globally, and possibilities for their reduction are discussed. In addition, an algebraic study is made of the influence of random uncertainties in the input parameters on the random error of the assigned shares. Three dose-effect functions, appropriate for the low-dose, low-effects regions that are of interest here, are chosen for this investigation, and the algebraic properties of the random errors of the assigned shares are discussed. For shares near 0 and 1, the errors are shown to be small and to depend linearly on the value of the shares; the errors are largest for values of the shares near 50%, that is, in the region of almost equal or equal shares.     

Ozone and natural systems: understanding exposure,response, and risk

Research aimed at understanding the response of plants to ozone has been conducted for over four decades but little of it has addressed intact natural systems. Even so, there is sufficient scientific information at this time to support air quality standards that will protect natural terrestrial ecosystems from ozone. What is unknown is the risk associated with continued exposure of natural systems, including both above- and below-ground components, in combination with other stresses including changing temperature and precipitation, elevated carbon dioxide, pests and pathogens, invasive species, and other activities that may fragment the landscape. Research to support an assessment of the ecological risk associated with ozone as it exists, in a milieu of stresses, must include endpoints beyond those addressed in the past, primarily productivity and species composition. To estimate the risk to society of ozone impacts on natural systems, endpoints such as the integrity of soil food webs, the quantity and quality of water supplied from terrestrial ecosystems, wildlife and recreational values, and the transfer and fate of carbon, nutrients, and water within the systems must be quantified. Not only will this research provide the basis for a sound estimate of risk, but also it will improve our understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes.     

Achieving the promise of transdisciplinarity: a critical exploration of the relationship between transdisciplinary research and societal problem solving

Transdisciplinarity is often presented as a way to effectively use scientific research to contribute to societal problem solving for sustainability. The aim of this paper is to critically explore this statement. This is done in two ways. First, a literature survey of transdisciplinary research is used to identify the assumptions that underlie the positive relationship between transdisciplinarity and societal problem solving for sustainability. This mapping identifies the claim that in-depth participation of users and the integration of relevant knowledge from both practice and research in real-world problem contexts produce socially robust results that contribute to sustainability. Second, the ability to live up to this claim is presented and discussed in five case study projects from Mistra Urban Futures, a transdisciplinary center in Göteborg, Sweden. The conclusions show that transdisciplinary processes, which fulfill the above conditions, do produce different types of socially robust knowledge, but this does not necessarily result in the ability to influence change in a sustainable direction. This instead creates a paradox in that the participation of stakeholders and the integration of knowledge from diverse sources require spaces that are both embedded in and insulated from practice and science proper. Such spaces produce results that are not easily aligned with sector-based target groups and formal policy processes. Institutionalizing transdisciplinarity in a boundary organization therefore solves some problems regarding participation and balanced problem ownership. However, it also creates new, hybrid problems, regarding knowledge transfer and scalability, which bridge the boundaries and challenge the praxis of planning and policy making.     

国家战略经济区风险和对策

近2年国家批准了20个国家发展战略经济区.在这些地区,随各自自然环境的变化其自然灾害风险有所不同.该文基于对国家战略发展区域的历史(1949-2009年)灾情调查统计,构建了以人均损失、地均损失、损失占GDP的比重及人均GDP、地均GDP等5个指标为主的自然灾害风险评价体系.研究结果表明:天津市滨海新区、上海浦东新区为低度风险区;深圳市综合配套改革试验区、珠江三角洲地区、长江三角洲地区、辽宁沿海经济带、江苏沿海地区、沈阳经济区、武汉城市圈、黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为中度风险区;关中-天水经济区、海峡西岸经济区、广西北部湾、中部地区、长吉图开发开放先导区、海南国际旅游岛综合试验区为较高度风险区;成渝统筹城乡发展综合配套改革试验区、甘肃省、长株潭城市群、鄱阳湖生态经济区为高度风险区.该文针对各区域自然灾害风险特点提出了发展对策.     

Landslide hazard,vulnerability, and risk assessment (HVRA), Mussoorie township,lesser himalaya,India

Environment, Development and Sustainability - In the present study, landslide hazard, vulnerability and the risk assessment of the Himalayan township Mussoorie, located in the lower part of the...     

旅游需求波动、风险管理与非线性减贫效应研究

旅游发展能够有效匹配贫困人口的资源禀赋,是产业扶贫的重要支撑。为更好地发挥旅游的减贫效用,本文基于旅游波动和风险管理视角对旅游发展与贫困减缓的多样化关联进行了逻辑统一,在使用HP滤波方法测度旅游需求波动的基础上,使用门限面板模型对2000-2013年中国旅游发展的非线性减贫效应进行了实证检验。实证结果显示:旅游波动是影响旅游发展减贫效应的重要因素,但国内旅游波动和入境旅游波动的减贫效应存在异质性。国内旅游波动主要体现为上行波动,能够在增长的稳定预期下,有助于旅游企业和包括贫困人口在内的旅游从业者进行专业化供给,从而有助于减贫。旅游发展的减贫效应体现出双门限的非线性特征,在旅游发展的初始阶段,并未能体现出显著的减贫效果,越过第一个门限值后,旅游减贫效应开始凸显,但在第二门限值之后,处于第三阶段旅游发展减贫弹性递减。因此,旅游产业具备成为阶段性重要减贫动力来源的潜力,但在旅游扶贫政策的制定和实施中,应秉持辩证和动态视角,当意识到旅游减贫效应已经步入递减区间时,要进行主动、系统、综合的风险管理。理解外部环境变化对旅游发展冲击的潜在结果,通过旅游需求结构和产业结构的调整提升贫困人口应对风险冲击的韧性,并通过互助、保险等风险应对手段,促进资源在不同风险状态之间的转移,提升旅游减贫绩效。     

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.     

Environmental hazards and health risk of common liquid perfluoro-n-alkanes, potent greenhouse gases

This article aimed at introducing the main physical properties and commercial/industrial uses of common liquid perfluoro-n-alkanes (including perfluoropentane, perfluorohexane, perfluoroheptane, perfluorooctane, and perfluorononane) and the environment and health hazards posed by their toxic decomposition products (especially in hydrogen fluoride and perfluoroisobutylene) because these perfluorocompounds are potent greenhouse gases, which have been blanketed into the Kyoto Protocol, but was rarely described in the National Inventory Reports by Annex I Parties. The environmental properties (including octanol-water partition coefficient, water solubility and Henry's law constant) of liquid perfluoro-n-alkanes were evaluated, and further discussed were its atmospheric implications according to the predicted properties and possible proposal for the formation of trifluoroacetic acid (CF(3)COOH) in the atmosphere by the ionized photolysis. These predicted values revealed that liquid perfluoro-n-alkanes tend to be hydrophobic and partitioned into organic matter, and they have exceptionally low solubility in water and extremely high vaporization from the water bodies, suggesting that it will sink into the atmosphere if it is released into the environment.     

Agroforestry environment,potentiality and risk in India: a remote sensing and GIS understanding

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The study utilized the tree covers per cent, agroforestry suitability, present and future (2050) climate, agriculture vulnerability (2050), percentage...     

Heredity and risk of disease

Mathematical modeling of competing risks often uses a single risk function for all individuals within a population. In this paper we use several specific examples to argue that such representations remain approximations until account is taken of the existence of genetic variability within and between populations, and the impact of this upon liability to disease. The extent of human genetic variability is also indicated.     

The practical societal problem of pollution and public health as the source of a variety of problems regarding chance mechanisms operating in living organisms

The essence of the societal problem which justifies the expenditure of large sums on studies of pollution and health is illustrated by three figures included in this paper. The first two of these figures illustrate the contemporary publicity favoring the two competing energy-producing technologies, the nuclear and the conventional fossil-burning technologies. The very existence of this costly publicity demonstrates that the decisions affecting public health are now frequently made without due regard to the relevant scientific findings. The third figure illustrates the most laudable effort of the Environmental Protection Agency to establish a relationship between hoped-for decreases in mortality and the dollar cost of removing from the environment any one of the several investigated pollutants, e.g., “particulates”, krypton-85, tritium, etc.The subsequent parts of this presentation tend to document the fact that the reliability of the EPA chart published in 1973 is illusory. The same applies to the large number of other official publications, including those of the National Academy of Sciences. The results of more modern studies brought to the fore a variety of biological chance mechanisms, such as competing risks, dose-rate effects, synergisms, etc., which make the problem attacked by EPA much more difficult than was originally anticipated.The basic research, combining the laboratory experimentation on animals and theoretical considerations, results in a better understanding of a variety of phenomena. However, this better understanding seems to imply that the solution of the practical societal problem requires a large multipollutant and multilocality epidemiological study.     

Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: Challenges,opportunities and recommendations

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA.     

Diversity of Television Exposure and its Association with the Cultivation of Concern for Environmental Risks

Cultivation theory claims that individuals who watch a greater amount of television are more likely to accept the representation of reality as presented on television. This study introduces the variable of exposure diversity and attempts to investigate if the diversity of television channels viewed plays a significant role beyond the amount of television viewed in the cultivation of concern about environmental risks. Data from the 2002 annual Life Style Study conducted by Synovate for DDB-Chicago was paired with a corresponding content analysis of environmental television coverage. Ordinary-Least-Squares regression suggests that exposure diversity is associated with concern of environmental risks above and beyond both the effects of the amount of television watched and individual differences, suggesting the variable of exposure diversity holds promise for further explicating cultivation theory.     

Community vulnerability and resilience in disaster risk reduction: an example from Phojal Nalla,Himachal Pradesh,India

International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks and Indian Plans advocate shared responsibility for reducing disaster risk, in which community vulnerability and resilience conditions are central. This paper presents a case study from the Indian Himalaya (Kullu District) of community vulnerability and resilience conditions following damaging floods, primarily the 1994 Phojal Nalla flood, through the concepts of community heritage and capital. Data were collected in the period 2013–2016, using semi-structured interviews (n?=?129), village reconnaissance and archival/contemporary data searches. The connections between heritage, capital, vulnerability and resilience are complex, but results demonstrate ‘knowledge’ is the principal driver of resilience conditions, via facets of heritage (e.g. religious infrastructure and activities, traditional architectural vernacular, and multi-generational attachments to place) and capital (e.g. income diversification, access to communication technologies, societal welfare measures and positive interactions with water). Persisting vulnerabilities stem from differential access to and implementation of best practice knowledge, governed by social, economic and political conditions. Further improvements in risk reduction require greater consideration of the following: (1) the integration of community local knowledge into the overall disaster management process; (2) the opportunities offered by mobile phone and other technologies for generating and sharing knowledge across society; and (3) the value of under-utilised knowledge of past disaster events, assembled from a systematic evaluation of oral, documentary and landscape evidence, to risk reduction.