Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Abstract

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated. The results show that, in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario, climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration, and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. By the end of the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk; Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term. Northwest China will become an area of high risks, and deciduous coniferous forests, temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

Sound, cost efficient management strategies in developed coastal zones can be reinforced by a thorough understanding of risks associated with the combination of anthropogenic and natural drivers of change. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in the Tunisian coastal zone of the Gulf of Gabes. It is based on the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques and Geographic Information Systems and is designed to support the development and prioritization of adaptation strategies. The RRA focuses on sea-level rise and storm surge flooding impacts for human and natural systems, i.e., beaches, wetlands, urban areas, agricultural areas, and terrestrial ecosystems. Results suggest that for both of the studied climate change impacts, i.e., sea-level rise and storm surge flooding, the area potentially exposed is limited to a narrow, low elevation region adjacent to the shoreline. However, the exposed areas showed a high relative risk score, obtained by the integration of exposure and susceptibility factors. Beaches have the lowest relative risk scores, while wetlands and terrestrial ecosystems have the higher relative risk scores. The final outputs of the analysis (i.e., exposure, susceptibility, and risk maps) can support end-users in the establishment of relative priorities for intervention and in the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities, thus providing a basis for coastal zoning and land-use planning.     

The long-term effects of carbon dioxide on natural systems: issues and research needs

Research on the responses of plants to increasing levels of carbon dioxide has largely assessed physiological, phenotypic, and community-level effects. Little attention has been directed to investigating the possibility that escalating levels of carbon dioxide may serve as a selection pressure altering the genetic diversity of plant populations. Plant populations exposed to elevated levels of heavy metals or ozone have been shown to undergo selection, and it is reasonable to consider that populations experiencing long-term exposure to escalating levels of carbon dioxide may show similar responses. Selection of this nature could be particularly significant because of the global extent of the effect.Genetic selection occurs when plants are subject to an agent of selection and three conditions for a property responsive to the agent are satisfied at the population level. In the population, variation must exist in the property, part of the variation must be genetically controlled, and variation in the property must affect reproductive fitness. If these conditions are satisfied, the frequency distribution of the property, and the gene frequency associated with it, will change over time in response to the agent of selection.Research on the selection pressure effects of carbon dioxide involves assessments that integrate across temporal, spatial, and biological scales, and embrace variation in the environment and genetics. To be effective, the research will have to adopt approaches that have not been commonly employed in previous air quality studies. The questions posed are biologically complex, and new research approaches and methods are required to answer them. Some of the new approaches that can be used to assess changes in gene frequency include use of natural carbon dioxide gradients, model plant systems, molecular markers, and DNA microarray technology.     

Ecological issues related to N deposition to natural ecosystems: research needs

There has and continues to be concern about the effects of elevated nitrogen (N) deposition on natural ecosystems. In this paper, research on natural ecosystems, including wetlands, heathlands, grasslands, steppe, naturally regenerated forests and deserts, is evaluated to determine what is known about nitrogen cycling in these ecosystems, the effects of elevated nitrogen on them and to identify research gaps. Aquatic ecosystems are not included in this review, except as they are part of the larger ecosystem. Research needs fall into several categories: (1) improved understanding and quantification of the N cycle, particularly relatively unstudied processes such as dry deposition, N fixation and decomposition/mineralization; (2) carbon cycling as affected by increased N deposition; (3) effects on arid ecosystems and other "neglected" ecosystems; (4) effects on complex ecosystems and interactions with other pollutants; (5) indicators and assessment tools for natural ecosystems.     

Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: an example for plant species in Europe

Climate change is one of the main factors that will affect biodiversity in the future and may even cause species extinctions. We suggest a methodology to derive a general relationship between biodiversity change and global warming. In conjunction with other pressure relationships, our relationship can help to assess the combined effect of different pressures to overall biodiversity change and indicate areas that are most at risk. We use a combination of an integrated environmental model (IMAGE) and climate envelope models for European plant species for several climate change scenarios to estimate changes in mean stable area of species and species turnover. We show that if global temperature increases, then both species turnover will increase, and mean stable area of species will decrease in all biomes. The most dramatic changes will occur in Northern Europe, where more than 35% of the species composition in 2100 will be new for that region, and in Southern Europe, where up to 25% of the species now present will have disappeared under the climatic circumstances forecasted for 2100. In Mediterranean scrubland and natural grassland/steppe systems, arctic and tundra systems species turnover is high, indicating major changes in species composition in these ecosystems. The mean stable area of species decreases mostly in Mediterranean scrubland, grassland/steppe systems and warm mixed forests.     

Toxicology and detection methods of the alkaloid neurotoxin produced by cyanobacteria, anatoxin-a

Freshwater resources are under stress due to naturally occurring conditions and human impacts. One of the consequences is the proliferation of cyanobacteria, microphytoplankton organisms that are capable to produce toxins called cyanotoxins. Anatoxin-a is one of the main cyanotoxins. It is a very potent neurotoxin that was already responsible for some animal fatalities. In this review we endeavor to divulgate much of the internationally published information about toxicology, occurrence and detection methods of anatoxin-a. Cyanobacteria generalities, anatoxin-a occurrence and production as well as anatoxin-a toxicology and its methods of detection are the aspects focused in this review. Remediation of anatoxin-a occurrence will be addressed with a public health perspective. Final remarks call the attention for some important gaps in the knowledge about this neurotoxin and its implication to public health. Alterations of aquatic ecosystems caused by anatoxin-a is also addressed. Although anatoxin-a is not the more frequent cyanotoxin worldwide, it has to be regarded as a health risk that can be fatal to terrestrial and aquatic organisms because of its high toxicity.     

Integrated and comprehensive estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from land systems

Exchanges of carbon and nitrogen between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems involve a complex set of interactions affected by both natural and management processes. Understanding these processes is important for managing ecosystem productivity and sustainability. Management processes also affect the net outcome of exchanges of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In developing a national carbon accounting system (NCAS) for Australia to account for emissions and removal of greenhouse gases to and from the atmosphere, a carbon:nitrogen mass balance ecosystem model (FullCAM) was developed. The FullCAM model is a hybrid of empirical and process modelling. The approach enables application to a wide range of natural resource management issues, because it is at land-management-relevant spatial and temporal resolution and captures the main process and management drivers. The scenario-prediction capability can be used to determine the emissions consequences of different management activities. Because, in Australia, emissions of greenhouse gases are closely related to the retention of dead organic matter and the availability of nitrogen for plant growth, the carbon and nitrogen cycling as modelled are good indicators of ecosystem productivity and condition. The NCAS also emphasizes the advantages of a comprehensive and integrated approach to developing a continental scale ecosystem-modelling system that has relevance both to estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable management of natural resources.     

青海省近20年森林植被碳储量变化及其现状分析

基于林业生态功能和青海省森林资源清查数据,采用森林植被生物量换算因子连续函数法,系统估算与分析青海省森林植被碳储量、碳密度,研究其近20 a碳储量变化并进行现状分析。结果表明：(1)青海省森林碳储量为11 182 64222 t,占同时期全国总碳储量的198%,青海省森林生态系统中面积占较大比重的中龄林,其碳储量尚未达到最大,有较大发展空间;(2)青海省近20 a天然林类型中碳储量较大的前4种分别是：柏木（Cupressus funebris）、桦木（Betula）、杨树（Populus）、云杉（Picea asperata）天然林,表明这几种天然林在青海省森林植被中占有重要的地位,其集中分布对区域生态功能的发挥起主导作用;(3)所采用的碳储量估算方法尚存不足,在以后计算中应考虑根据不同林分类型的含碳量进行计算     

基于水生态功能区的巢湖环湖带生态服务功能评价

水生态功能区被认为是流域生态环境保护、治理与修复的基本单元,以其为基础进行生态服务功能评估对于流域内的土地利用结构优化配置、生态环境保护、治理与修复等都有重要的意义。选取巢湖环湖带,采用物质量的方法,对其12种生态服务功能进行评价,其中陆域生态系统4种,水域生态系统8种。研究结果表明:(1)研究区生态系统服务功能空间差异明显,南部和东北部较高,西北部和东南部较低;而研究区单位面积生态服务功能西部较高,东部较低;(2)生态服务功能总量较高的区域,其单位面积生态服务功能并不一定高;(3)环湖带生态系统服务功能的管理和恢复既要考虑生态服务功能总量的大小,也要考虑单位面积生态服务功能的大小,依据实际情况区别对待,生态服务功能较强的地区,应积极发挥其生态功能的优势,在保护与治理并重的情况下充分发挥其生态服务功能;生态服务功能较弱的地区,应采取一定的措施,在保护的基础上对其生态服务功能进行恢复。     

The influence of urbanization on vegetation carbon pools under a tele-coupling framework in China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Carbon emissions will exacerbate the process of global warming, and urbanization can cause carbon loss from terrestrial ecosystems by occupying...     

Ecological issues related to ozone: agricultural issues

Research on the effects of ozone on agricultural crops and agro-ecosystems is needed for the development of regional emission reduction strategies, to underpin practical recommendations aiming to increase the sustainability of agricultural land management in a changing environment, and to secure food supply in regions with rapidly growing populations. Major limitations in current knowledge exist in several areas: (1) Modelling of ozone transfer and specifically stomatal ozone uptake under variable environmental conditions, using robust and well-validated dynamic models that can be linked to large-scale photochemical models lack coverage. (2) Processes involved in the initial reactions of ozone with extracellular and cellular components after entry through the stomata, and identification of key chemical species and their role in detoxification require additional study. (3) Scaling the effects from the level of individual cells to the whole-plant requires, for instance, a better understanding of the effects of ozone on carbon transport within the plant. (4) Implications of long-term ozone effects on community and whole-ecosystem level processes, with an emphasis on crop quality, element cycling and carbon sequestration, and biodiversity of pastures and rangelands require renewed efforts.The UNECE Convention on Long Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution shows, for example, that policy decisions may require the use of integrated assessment models. These models depend on quantitative exposure-response information to link quantitative effects at each level of organization to an effective ozone dose (i.e., the balance between the rate of ozone uptake by the foliage and the rate of ozone detoxification). In order to be effective in a policy, or technological context, results from future research must be funnelled into an appropriate knowledge transfer scheme. This requires data synthesis, up-scaling, and spatial aggregation. At the research level, interactions must be considered between the effects of ozone and factors that are either directly manipulated by man through crop management, or indirectly changed. The latter include elevated atmospheric CO(2), particulate matter, other pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, UV-B radiation, climate and associated soil moisture conditions.     

Photochemical smog effects in mixed conifer forests along a natural gradient of ozone and nitrogen deposition in the San Bernardino Mountains

Toxic effects of photochemical smog on ponderosa and Jeffrey pines in the San Bernardino Mountains were discovered in the 1950s. It was revealed that ozone is the main cause of foliar injury manifested as chlorotic mottle and premature needle senescence. Various morphological, physiological and biochemical alterations in the affected plants have been reported over a period of about 40 years of multidisciplinary research. Recently, the focus of research has shifted from studying the effects of ozone to multiple pollutant effects. Recent studies have indicated that the combination of ozone and nitrogen may alter biomass allocation in pines towards that of deciduous trees, accelerate litter accumulation, and increase carbon sequestration rates in heavily polluted forests. Further study of the effects of multiple pollutants, and their long-term consequences on the mixed conifer ecosystem, cannot be adequately done using the original San Bernardino Mountains Air Pollution Gradient network. To correct deficiencies in the design, the new site network is being configured for long-term studies on multiple air pollutant concentrations and deposition, physiological and biochemical changes in trees, growth and composition of over-story species, biogeochemical cycling including carbon cycling and sequestration, water quality, and biodiversity of forest ecosystems. Eleven sites have been re-established. A comparison of 1974 stand composition with data from 2000 stand composition indicate that significant changes in species composition have occurred at some sites with less change at other sites. Moist, high-pollution sites have experienced the greatest amount of forest change, while dryer low-pollution sites have experienced the least amount of stand change. In general, ponderosa pine had the lowest basal area increases and the highest mortality across the San Bernardino Mountains.     

Linking Ecological Sustainability and World Food Needs

Ecological approaches to agriculture can provide useful guidelines for addressing world food needs, while avoiding adverse environmental and social impacts. Experiments in both natural and agricultural ecosystems suggest that systems with high plant diversity may be more productive, more stable and more resilient than species-poor systems. In addition, systems with high plant diversity support higher levels of biodiversity in other functional groups, which may enhance the productivity of the plant component. Given these benefits of diverse systems, various approaches for converting conventional high input agricultural systems to more sustainable systems are addressed. Andow and Hidaka's (1989) concept of production syndromes is considered in the context of conversion to sustainable agriculture.     

The ecological effects of trichloroacetic acid in the environment

Trichloroacetic acid (TCAA) is a member of the family of compounds known as chloroacetic acids, which includes mono-, di- and trichloroacetic acid. The significant property these compounds share is that they are all phytotoxic. TCAA once was widely used as a potent herbicide. However, long after TCAA's use as a herbicide was discontinued, its presence is still detected in the environment in various compartments. Methods for quantifying TCAA in aqueous and solid samples are summarized. Concentrations in various environmental compartments are presented, with a discussion of the possible formation of TCAA through natural processes. Concentrations of TCAA found to be toxic to aquatic and terrestrial organisms in laboratory and field studies were compiled and used to estimate risk quotients for soil and surface waters. TCAA levels in most water bodies not directly affected by point sources appear to be well below toxicity levels for the most sensitive aquatic organisms. Given the phytotoxicity of TCAA, aquatic plants and phytoplankton would be the aquatic species to monitor for potential effects. Given the concentrations of TCAA measured in various soils, there appears to be a risk to terrestrial organisms. Soil uptake of TCAA by plants has been shown to be rapid. Also, combined uptake of TCAA from soil and directly from the atmosphere has been shown. Therefore, risk quotients derived from soil exposure may underestimate the risk TCAA poses to plants. Moreover, TCE and TCA have been shown to be taken up by plants and converted to TCAA, thus leading to an additional exposure route. Mono- and di-chloroacetic acids can co-occur with TCAA in the atmosphere and soil and are more phytotoxic than TCAA. The cumulative effects of TCAA and compounds with similar toxic effects found in air and soil must be considered in subsequent terrestrial ecosystem risk assessments.     

New international long-term ecological research on air pollution effects on the Carpathian Mountain forests,Central Europe

An international cooperative project on distribution of ozone in the Carpathian Mountains, Central Europe was conducted from 1997 to 1999. Results of that project indicated that in large parts of the Carpathian Mountains, concentrations of ozone were elevated and potentially phytotoxic to forest vegetation. That study led to the establishment of new long-term studies on ecological changes in forests and other ecosystems caused by air pollution in the Retezat Mountains, Southern Carpathians, Romania and in the Tatra Mountains, Western Carpathians on the Polish-Slovak border. Both of these important mountain ranges have the status of national parks and are Man & the Biosphere Reserves. In the Retezat Mountains, the primary research objective was to evaluate how air pollution may affect forest health and biodiversity. The main research objective in the Tatra Mountains was to evaluate responses of natural and managed Norway spruce forests to air pollution and other stresses. Ambient concentrations of ozone (O(3)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) as well as forest health and biodiversity changes were monitored on densely distributed research sites. Initial monitoring of pollutants indicated low levels of O(3), SO(2), and NO(x) in the Retezat Mountains, while elevated levels of O(3) and high deposition of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) have characterized the Tatra Mountains. In the Retezat Mountains, air pollution seems to have little effect on forest health; however, there was concern that over a long time, even low levels of pollution may affect biodiversity of this important ecosystem. In contrast, severe decline of Norway spruce has been observed in the Tatra Mountains. Although bark beetle seems to be the immediate cause of that decline, long-term elevated levels of atmospheric N and S depositions and elevated O(3) could predispose trees to insect attacks and other stresses. European and US scientists studied pollution deposition, soil and plant chemistry, O(3)-sensitive plant species, forest insects, and genetic changes in the Retezat and Tatra Mountains. Results of these investigations are presented in a GIS format to allow for a better understanding of the changes and the recommendations for effective management in these two areas.     

基于RRM的市级土地利用总体规划生态风险评价

以乐山市土地利用总体规划为研究对象,应用相对风险模型(Relative Risk Model,RRM),对其生态风险进行了分析和评价。评价结果表明,在规划执行期间,全市生态风险总体呈下降趋势,但在区域内的空间分布上却具有不平衡性,局部地区的生态环境会出现波动甚至恶化;作物种植、交通运输和人口负荷是规划生态风险的3个最主要来源;而林地和牧草地在所有生境类型中所受到的生态压力最大;对于生态风险结果,主要表现为区域生态系统及其组分在功能与结构上的损害。研究结果能够为乐山市土地资源开发利用和规划成果的科学决策提供理论依据,同时具有开展区域生态风险防控与管理的参考价值。     

Aggregated Estimation of the Basic Parameters of Biological Production and the Carbon Budget of Russian Terrestrial Ecosystems: 1. Stocks of Plant Organic Mass

The data presented were obtained at the first stage (1993–1999) of studies on evaluating the basic parameters of biological production in Russian terrestrial ecosystems in order to provide information for assessing and modeling the carbon budget of the entire terrestrial biota of the country. Stocks of phytomass (by fractions), coarse woody debris, and dead roots (underground necromass) were calculated by two independent methods, which yielded close results. The total amount of phytomass in Russian terrestrial ecosystems was estimated at 81800 Tg (=10¹² g = million t) dry matter, or 39989 Tg carbon. Forest ecosystems comprise a greater part (82.1%) of live plant organic matter (here and below, comparisons are made with respect to the carbon content); natural grasslands and brushwoods account for 8.8%; the phytomass of wetlands (bogs and swamps), for 6.6%; and the phytomass of farmlands, for only 2.5%. Aboveground wood contains approximately two-thirds of the plant carbon (63.8%), and green parts contain 9.9%. For all classes of ecosystems, the proportion of underground phytomass averages 26.7% of the total amount, varying from 22.0% in forests to 57.1% in grasslands and brushwoods. The average phytomass density on lands covered with vegetation (1629.9 million hectares in Russia) is 5.02 kg/m² dry matter, or 2.45 kg C/m². The total amount of carbon in coarse woody debris is 4955 Tg C, and 9180 Tg C are in the underground necromass. In total, the vegetation of Russian terrestrial ecosystems (without litter) contains 54124 Tg carbon.     

Aggregated Estimation of Basic Parameters of Biological Production and Carbon Budget of Russian Terrestrial Ecosystems: 3. Biogeochemical Carbon Fluxes

The biogeochemical cycle of organic carbon in Russian terrestrial ecosystems in 1990 is considered. Its components have been estimated as follows: net primary production, 4354 million metric tons of carbon (Mt C); annual amount of plant detritus, 3223 Mt C; heterotrophic soil respiration, 3214 Mt C; biomass utilization, 680 Mt C; damage to vegetation caused by fire and pests, 140 Mt C; and removal by surface and ground waters, 79 Mt C. Anthropogenically regulated fluxes of organic carbon (820 Mt C) are comparable to its amount involved in the natural cycle.