低碳压力下中国核电产业发展及铀资源保障分析

发展核电是减轻我国当前碳排放压力的现实选择。通过分析世界和中国核电发展的历程、技术水平和规模，结果显示：尽管我国在20世纪70年代就开始发展核电，但是我国核电装机容量和发电总量仅占我国电力总装机容量和发电量的1.1%和1.9%，与发达国家仍有很大差距；在技术水平上，发达国家已经开始研发第三、第四代核反应堆，而我国正在运行和多数拟建核电站都是压水堆技术为主的二代核电技术；在空间分布上，尽管我国很多省份都有需求，但我国核电站主要集中于沿海经济发达、能源短缺地区；从铀资源基础来看，我国仍属于贫铀国。鉴于世界铀资源分布和供给十分不均衡的状况，要保障我国核电产业持续发展不仅要加大国内资源的勘探开发，同时还需加紧拓展海外市场、建立资源储备和发展快堆技术等     

低碳约束下中国核电发展及其规模分析

面对能源紧缺和环境约束问题,世界各国纷纷投入到新能源开发中来。核电因其清洁、高效、低碳、经济等特性逐渐受到各国的青睐。福岛核事故后,世界核电发展进入低潮,中国于2012年11月重新启动核电项目建设。在国际低碳发展背景和约束下,分析中国核电发展情况及发展空间与规模显得十分有必要。本文根据中国发展核电的政策形势,结合当前国际低碳发展背景和国内能源情况,阐述了在降低碳排放和优化能源结构保障能源安全方面,中国发展核电的积极作用。其次,在借鉴国内外研究数据的基础上,讨论和比较了在基于碳价的基础上核电项目的经济性,得出在考虑碳排放的环境外部性情况下,核电经济优势明显,同时当贴现率为5%时,核电极具竞争力。再次,在电力行业碳排放约束下,采用情景分析方法,分析中国核电发展中长期的适宜规模:2020年装机容量为0.5-0.7亿k W,发电量为3 750-5 250亿k Wh(设备年利用小时数按7 500h计算),总发电占比为5%-7%;2030年装机容量为1.2-1.4亿k W,总发电占比为7%-10%。最后,针对未来核电发展规模的扩大,提出了健全核安全文化,加大安全管理监督力度;建立铀矿储备保障体系;注重核电产业链建设,提升核电设备国产化水平;激励核电企业自主创新,参与国际竞争等政策建议。     

美国内陆核电取水量与水资源保障条件浅析

随着我国核电建设步伐加快,核电规划由滨海逐步向内陆延伸,且主要分布在长江流域,加强与完善核电水资源管理体系势在必行。以美国内陆核电站为研究对象,针对核电建设对水资源量的需求,分别对内陆核电站历史取水量情况和电站冷却水水源地水资源保障条件两个方面进行了探讨。数据计算结果显示内陆核电站在施工建设期的取水量较小,正常运行期的取水量主要与核电机组冷却方式有关,直流冷却方式取水量远大于循环冷却方式,且三代核电技术与二代相差不大;另一方面,美国内陆核电站冷却水水源地的水文特征计算结果对我国的内陆核电选址建设和低放废液储存罐容量设计可以起到参考作用     

三峡水库入库污染负荷研究（Ⅱ）——蓄水后污染负荷预测

在文献\[1\]基础上，预测三峡水库2010年和2015年的入库污染负荷。采用包络线法预测排污得到有效控制的低负荷水平（最佳状态），排污继续恶化到一定限度的高负荷水平（最坏状态），以及按正常排污介于高、低负荷水平之间的中负荷水平（一般状态）。在预测入库污染负荷时，把长江、嘉陵江、乌江进入的背景水质污染负荷分为天然背景负荷和上游贡献负荷，天然背景负荷保持不变，上游贡献负荷根据上游水污染控制规划按高、中、低负荷水平预测。预测表明，库区内的污染负荷占入库总污染负荷的比例较小。中负荷水平下，库区污染源占入库总负荷的比例为8.50%～22.93％。污染负荷主要来自长江、嘉陵江、乌江上游的贡献和天然背景负荷。在低、中、高三种负荷水平下，扣除天然背景值时，2010年低负荷水平时BOD5库区负荷占28.8％、中负荷占32.5％、高负荷占35.04％。总磷出现反常，库区的总磷的污染负荷在低负荷水平下，所占入库负荷的比例高于中负荷水平、但小于高负荷水平。2010年、2015年库区的主要污染物质和污染负荷排放分布与现状（1998年）基本相同。主要排污区域为重庆主城区，2010年预测重庆主城区CODCr负荷占库区总负荷的比例，高、中、低负荷水平分别为：39.6%、36.2％、21.6％，低负荷比高负荷降低18％。库区的主要污染源为农业面源，2010年库区农业面源中CODCr负荷占总负荷的比例在高、中、低负荷水平下分别为：38.9%、47.5％、70.4％。同时，随着库区社会经济发展，污染负荷有逐步增大的趋势，到2015年所有污染物及负荷水平，均大于2010年和1998年。     

苏南太湖地区水资源价值补偿对物价水平的影响研究

对水资源进行价值补偿是解决我国现阶段水资源短缺和水污染问题的重要手段之一，解决好水资源价值补偿问题是实现资源，环境、社会可持续发展的前提。实施水资源价值补偿政策可能导致的物价水平上升是关系到人民群众生活稳定的重要问题。在实施水资源价值补偿政策之前，对实施这一政策可能引起的物价上涨幅度进行定量分析是十分必要的。本文运用投入产出模型计算苏南太胡地区水资源价值按一定比例（分别为１％、２％、３％、４％、５     

我国确立21世纪能源工业发展目标

据来自国家发展计划委员会的消息 ,我国确立的 2 1世纪初能源发展重点是 :以电力为中心 ,以煤炭为基础 ,大力开发石油和天然气 ,积极发展核电以及其它新能源和可再生能源。据悉 ,2 1世纪初 ,我国能源工业将解决一系列重大战略问题 :着重解决好煤炭开发中心西移的问题 ,重点抓好神府、东胜等重点煤矿及其外运通道的建设 ;适当加快水电的流域梯级开发和煤电的坑口电站建设 ;集中力量加快新疆油气资源和海洋石油的勘探开发。在 2 1世纪初形成以山西、陕西、内蒙古西部、黑龙江、贵州等产煤省区为重点的煤炭基地 ;以黄河上游、长江中下游为重点…     

我国可持续能源工业发展思考

中国一次能源消费结构严重滞后于世界能源工业发展，但中国具有发展天然气、核电、水电等洁净能源的巨大前景，因此大力发展天然气、核电等能源是中国建立可持续能源工业的重要选择。     

低碳经济形势下江西省发展核产业链的潜力和对策

围绕民用核电的发展，核能利用的产业链存在着很大的发展空间。江西省是全国最大的铀矿资源基地，有较齐备的核技术产业体系、国内核学科门类最全的高校、丰富的核电厂址资源等优势，其应加深认识，充分发挥该省铀矿基地优势，通过积极与国家有关涉核单位协作、完善促进核产业链形成的政策措施、加大核领域人才培养力度、加强核技术在农业及农产品加工中的运用、适当发展核供热产业等具体措施培育和发展核产业链，为该省经济增长提供能源支持，实现江西经济的跨越式发展，并能改变该省目前以煤炭为主的能源消费结构，降低碳排放，保护其清洁环境，实现低碳目标     

一次能源消费结构变化对我国单位GDP能耗影响效应研究

基于1980—2004年能源统计数据，首先和用通径分析法测算了一次能源消费结构、技术、管理医素与单位GDP能耗强度的关系。定量分析了各一次能源消费构成比例（煤，石油，天然气，水电等消耗比例）对单位GDP能耗的直接、闻接和总影响程度；结果表明：技术水平及管理水平等不可测因素对我国单位GDP能耗起决定作用，石油消耗比例为单位GDP能耗变化的主要限制性因素，故在煤的消费比例下降幅度较小的情况下，要想达到节能降耗的目的，必须首先重视技术的进步及管理水平的提高，同时提高石油的使用比例，尤其要重视水电的发展。然后利用通径分析结果消除了多重共线性的影响，建立了单位GDP能耗同一次能源消费结构及其它相关因素间的多元回归模型，分析了能源消费结构的调整和优化对节能降耗的影响途径及影响效应。     

从"低碳经济"谈江西发展核电的必要性和可行性

近年来随着全球气候的变化，“低碳经济”概念应运而生，并备受国际社会关注。核电以其高效、清洁及供能的稳定性而成为各国追求“低碳经济”的必然选择。江西省位于长江中游，改革开放以来其经济发展长期落后于东部沿海地区，自“十五”后江西有了快速发展，但随之也带来了巨大的电力能源缺口及环境污染的加重。江西省尚未发现油气资源，煤炭及水能资源产量严重不足，一次能源主要靠外省调入,但江西有着较为稳定的地质构造、较为发达的水系和充沛的雨水、丰富的铀矿资源、以及象东华理工大学这样的核工业人才储备基地，因此,江西既有发展核电的必要性也有其可行性,发展核电既能为江西经济发展提供稳定的能源后盾又能保护环境、减少环境污染，从而实现江西省经济的跨越式发展。     

The accounting method and application of CO2 emissions responsibility by the electricity sector at the provincial level in China

When accounting the CO₂ emissions responsibility of the electricity sector at the provincial level in China,it is of great significance to consider the scope of both producers’ and the consumers’ responsibility,since this will promote fairness in defining emission responsibility and enhance cooperation in emission reduction among provinces.This paper proposes a new method for calculating carbon emissions from the power sector at the provincial level based on the shared responsibility principle and taking into account interregional power exchange.This method can not only be used to account the emission responsibility shared by both the electricity production side and the consumption side,but it is also applicable for calculating the corresponding emission responsibility undertaken by those provinces with net electricity outflow and inflow.This method has been used to account for the carbon emissions responsibilities of the power sector at the provincial level in China since 2011.The empirical results indicate that compared with the production-based accounting method,the carbon emissions of major power-generation provinces in China calculated by the shared responsibility accounting method are reduced by at least 10%,but those of other power-consumption provinces are increased by 20% or more.Secondly,based on the principle of shared responsibility accounting,Inner Mongolia has the highest carbon emissions from the power sector while Hainan has the lowest.Thirdly,four provinces,including Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Hubei and Anhui,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity outflow- 14 million t in 2011,accounting for 74.42% of total carbon emissions from net electricity outflow in China.Six provinces,including Hebei,Beijing,Guangdong,Liaoning,Shandong,and Jiangsu,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity inflow- 11 million t in 2011,accounting for 71.44% of total carbon emissions from net electricity inflow in China.Lastly,this paper has estimated the emission factors of electricity consumption at the provincial level,which can avoid repeated calculations when accounting the emission responsibility of power consumption terminals（e.g.construction,automobile manufacturing and other industries）.In addition,these emission factors can also be used to account the emission responsibilities of provincial power grids.     

Regulation of nuclear radiation exposures in India

India has a long-term program of wide spread applications of nuclear radiations and radioactive sources for peaceful applications in medicine, industry, agriculture and research and is already having several thousand places in the country where such sources are being routinely used. These places are mostly outside the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) installations. DAE supplies such sources. The most important application of nuclear energy in DAE is in electricity generation through nuclear power plants. Fourteen such plants are operating and many new plants are at various stages of construction. In view of the above mentioned wide spread applications, Indian parliament through an Act, called Atomic Energy Act, 1964 created an autonomous body called Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) with comprehensive authority and powers. This Board issues codes, guides, manuals, etc., to regulate such installations so as to ensure safe use of such sources and personnel engaged in such installations and environment receives radiation exposures within the upper bounds prescribed by them. Periodic reports are submitted to AERB to demonstrate compliance of its directives. Health, Safety and Environment Group of Bhabha Atomic Research Centres, Mumbai carries out necessary surveillance and monitoring of all installations of the DAE on a routine basis and also periodic inspections of other installations using radiation sources. Some of the nuclear fuel cycle plants like nuclear power plants and fuel reprocessing involve large radioactive source inventories and have potential of accidental release of radioactivity into the environment, an Environmental Surveillance Laboratory (ESL) is set up at each such site much before the facility goes into operation. These ESL's collect baseline data and monitor the environment throughout the life of the facilities including the decommissioning stage. The data is provided to AERB and is available to members of the public. In addition, a multi-tier system of AERB permissions is in place to ensure that all aspects of safety have been considered before permission to operate is granted. The stages where permission of AERB is essential are site selection, design data, and several stages during construction and operation. The details required by AERB include provision for treatment and storage of radioactive waste, de-commissioning procedures and provision of costs. In addition to AERB, nuclear power plants have to comply with the requirements of Ministry of Environment and Forests and get their clearance. This is given on the basis of Environmental Impact Assessment Report which should satisfy the authorities that no ecological damage will be caused and the facility will not have adverse effect on the environment. In addition, the State Pollution Control Board where the facility is to be located has to permit the site of the plant for its proposed discharges into the environment. It is largely due to the above comprehensive regulatory controls that none of the plants in India had any accident during the last 34 decades of operation. The type of measurements carried out by the ESL's and results from a few typical ESL's will be presented.     

含外来电的崇明县能源碳排放核算研究

能源消耗是中国最主要的碳排放源，而地方政府是碳管理的基层行政单元，因此，有效控制区域的能源碳排放是碳减排工作的重中之重。区域消耗的能源中，外来电是缓解当地用电压力的重要措施，但一般外来电引起的碳排放易被忽视。将外来电导致的碳排放纳入区域能源碳排放核算体系内，利用部门分析和范围分析法建立了包含外来电分析的能源碳排放核算系统，以上海市崇明县为例进行了应用。研究表明：（1）2000～2009年崇明的能源碳排放增长较快，由181万t增至477万t（CO2当量）；(2）碳排放总量的8212%来自3个部门：工业、建筑业和生活部门;(3）2009年，购买电力导致的间接碳排放达2316%，体现了实施碳管理时考虑外来电力的必要性     

控制中国燃煤发电污染的构想

控制中国燃煤发电污染的思路是,从中国主要大中型燃煤发电厂的容量和其用煤数据出发,考察中国燃煤发电的SO_2排放情况。结合对发电新技术开发评价研究的投资数据,估计为达到不同环境控制标准所需要的投资费用。设想通过征收电价附加费的办法积累燃煤电站的技术改造和采用新技术重建的资金。考虑研究开发和示范这些新技术所需要的时间,在估计累积这笔资全的时间为15年的假设下,附加费的变动范围(取决于不同技术组合的选择)大约为每度电增加0.005～0.01元。本方案的可行之处在于,为改善环境对电费所做的轻微提价,中国的全社会是可以接受的。而且这一方案又同时给出发展和应用新技术所需要的时间,它允许中国在多数燃煤发电技术上可以开展具有自己特点的研究开发工作。这些新技术在解决中国燃煤电站的改造和重建的同时,必然也会走向更广阔的世界市场。     

中国电力系统低碳转型的路径探析——基于社会技术转型思路

社会技术转型的多层视角(MLP)是转型理论的最新进展,它认为转型是由三个层面——微观层的技术利基,中观层的社会技术体制和宏观层的大环境——相互作用引起的一个非线性的演化过程。该思路通过分析技术和社会因素之间的互动关系,寻求理解社会技术体制的长期变化。本文以MLP为分析思路,研究我国电力系统现行体制已经发生的动态变化;并从短期,中期和长期三个时间维度,对我国低碳电力系统转型路径提出一个概念性的分析框架。短期的转变路径,延续和发展现有体制结构和治理模式,通过体制内行为主体有意识地调整创新活动和发展的方向,来解决体制内部矛盾和压力,实现政府2020年的减排目标和可再生能源目标。中期的重构路径,基本实现电源结构实质性改变,火力发电比例逐步下降,可再生能源发电对其主导地位形成冲击和挑战,电力系统呈现百花齐放百家争鸣之势态。长期的重置路径通过新的低碳能源技术创新的质的突破和飞跃,实现高煤高碳的电力体系由新的低碳体制取代这一长期目标。本文从理论和方法上丰富了目前我国低碳转型的讨论,对政策制定者和相关的行为主体也可提供一种有益的参考。     

“十二五”及2020年电力需求预测研究

准确地把握未来10年的电力需求走势是做好电力规划、安排电力建设的重要基础.考虑到不同部门电力需求具有不同的决定因素和机制,本文把全社会用电量分为居民生活用电、农业用电、工业用电、建筑业用电和服务业用电等五个部分,构建、拟合不同的电力需求方程,预测电力需求.预测的主要结果是:“十二五”期间全社会用电量年均增长率约为7.8%,2015年用电量超过6万亿kWh,“十三五”期间的年均增长率为6.1%,2020年用电量接近8.2万亿kWh.未来10年,单位产值用电量将逐步下降,电力消费增长率将低于GDP增长率,电力需求弹性分别为0.84和0.72.电力需求结构将发生显著变化,到2020年居民生活用电占全社会用电比重为20%左右,工业用电比重将从当前的73%下降到2020年的63%.     

Energy revolution:for a sustainable future

The discovery and use of fossil fuels have not only helped the evolution of human society from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization,but also caused serious environmental and climate problems.The earth is calling for a sustainable future,and a change from industrial civilization to ecological civilization based on the new"energy revolution".A macroscopic quantitative analysis of China’s environmental capacity and climate capacity shows that China is in urgent need of changing the extensive developing mode and having an energy revolution.It is foreseeable that fossil fuels will remain the most consumed source of energies in China now and in the next few decades.Although the efficient and clean use of fossil fuels are very important,this is not an energy revolution or the fundamental solution to environmental and climate problems.Unconventional gases including shale gas play an important role in the mitigation of environmental problems and climate change,but"shale gas revolution"or"shale gas era"is not suitable to China since the proportion of natural gas in primary energy structure in China can only be increased by a maximum of 20%.The transition of Chinese energy structure from fossil-fuels-dominating stage to multiple-energy-sources stage and then to a nonfossil-fuels-dominating stage is the inevitable future,with the help of great contribution from renewable energy and nuclear energy.Among renewable energies,the proportion of non-hydro renewable energies will gradually increase.Improvement of their market competitiveness(economic efficiency)relies on technological innovation.Renewable energies will be the main energy source for the earth in future.Despite the impact of the Fukushima nuclear disaster,the whole world,including China,will not give up nuclear energy development.Safe,steady,and large-scale development of nuclear power is a rational choice of China.Transition from nuclear fission power plant to nuclear fusion power plant is the inevitable future.Nuclear energy will be a sustainable energy source and another main energy source of the earth in future.China needs to enhance energy security consciousness,promote energy saving,and change the energy supply-demand patterns,that is the transition from"meet a too-fast-growing demand with an extensive supply"to"meet a reasonable demand with a rational supply".All countries need to work together to address global environmental problems and climate change.Energy revolution is the foundation for a sustainable future.With a wide range of international cooperation,the win-win cooperation is the only way of overcoming these challenges.