Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of ?1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the ‘most’ appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.     

Dynamic simulation of a decentralized polygeneration plant providing SNG,steam and power

The behaviour of a decentralized polygeneration plant providing synthetic natural gas (SNG), steam and electrical power is simulated in three scenarios in this study. The plant size is based on an assumed capacity of decentralized polygeneration plants processing 1070 m³ h^?1 (STP) of syngas. 396 m³ h^?1 (STP) of raw SNG, 0.4 t h^?1 of steam at 5 bar and 670 kW of electrical power can be generated by the plant at the reference scenario. Methanation reactor and steam generator are modelled in detail. Further results indicate that such a polygeneration plant can provide positive and negative operation reserves for the electricity network to the extent of 100% of the reference power output, while the amount of generated steam varies by less than 40%. At the same time, the generated SNG quality keeps constant. Lower variations in the amount of generated steam are applicable when reducing the operation reserve capacity.     

Quantitative assessment of the Japanese “local production for local consumption” movement: a case study of growth of vegetables in the Osaka city region

This study aimed to assess Japan’s recent “local production for local consumption” (LPLC) movement, with a special focus on vegetables in the Osaka city region of central Japan. After collecting statistics and spatial data, we conducted a multi-scale analysis of vegetable production and consumption along with the associated energy consumption, using geographical information system software at three spatial scales along the vegetable flow paths: national, regional, and local. Vegetables consumed in the Osaka city region came from prefectures throughout Japan, and we mapped the foodshed within this region at 1-km spatial resolution, as well as the distribution of farmland, farmers’ and other markets. We also conducted a scenario analysis for reduced energy consumption through organic farming and the utilization of abandoned farmland near a city to replace food imports from distant areas. We found that the large majority of vegetables consumed in the Osaka city region currently come from remote prefectures, and that this is associated with a high level of energy consumption. Inside the Osaka city region, peri-urban vegetable farming contributes to regional vegetable provision, resulting in an approximately 70 % production/consumption ratio within an 80-km radius of the urban center; if all of the area of abandoned farmland were restored to production, this ratio would increase to approximately 75 %. Organic farming activities that bring together farmers and urbanites are emerging in many parts of the study area, contributing to increased LPLC. Scenario analysis suggested that a decrease of more than 1 × 10⁶ GJ of energy inputs could be achieved through wider adoption of local organic farming for local consumption and complete utilization of abandoned farmland in the Osaka city region.     

Latitudinal pattern in species diversity and its response to global warming in permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains, China

Permafrost wetlands are one of the most sensitive plant communities in response to global warming. Global warming could induce natural plant communities to shift into cooler climate zones, or extirpate. To understand how plant communities in permafrost wetlands are affected by global warming, we examined the patterns of plant species diversity in the 24 permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains along a latitudinal gradient. This gradient was characterized by a northward decline in mean annual temperature (Δ = 3.5°C) and mean annual precipitation (Δ = 38.7 mm). Our results indicated that latitudinal patterns in species diversity existed in the permafrost wetlands. The numbers of family, genus and species, the Gleason index and Shannon-Wiener index for shrubs decreased linearly with decreasing latitude, but increased for herbaceous plants. The latitudinal patterns in species diversity had influenced strongly by temperature. Simple linear regression yielded about 2 decreases in shrub number and 9 increases in herbaceous species number with an increase of mean annual temperature by 1°C, with 0.33 decreases in shrub diversity and 0.29 increases in herbaceous species diversity. If temperature warms 3.7°C by 2100, herbaceous plants might increase in the permafrost wetlands, with species number increasing 48% or 6 times and species diversity increasing 40% or 2 times; and some shrub species might decrease and even disappear in part of the areas with lower latitude, with species number decreasing 50–100% and species diversity decreasing 69–100%. The permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains might continue degenerating and shift northward with global warming over the next century.     

Local knowledge about dugout canoes reveals connections between forests and fisheries

Dugout canoes are traditional boat types made from a single tree trunk. This type of boat can reveal unique connections between forest and fisheries in coastal areas: their construction and the species used depend on the local ecological knowledge of artisans and the plant resources available and are also influenced by the type of fisheries in which the canoe will be used. Our objective was to analyze how dugout canoes are constructed, maintained, and currently used in the central coastal region of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The study emphasizes the interaction between the use of forest resources and artisanal fishing in this coastal environment. The data collected were based on interviews with 30 artisans and participant observation. Schizolobium parahyba (Vell.) Blake, Ocotea porosa (Nees & Mart.) Barroso, Ocotea Aubl../Nectandra Roll. Ex Rottb., and Aspidosperma Mart. & Zucc. are the main taxa used to construct the canoes. Many canoe sizes are used, and based on the boat type, the trunk diameters needed to construct them varies from 0.6 to 2.9 m and trunk heights from 4 to 10 m. Different types of canoe are used according to the type of fishing and especially to the environment conditions. The construction of canoes in the region has decreased due to difficulties in acquiring wood, changes in fishing activities, and reasons related to labor and apprenticeship, all causes related to modernization of the society and urban growth. The knowledge of plant species used can contribute to shape policies to improve forest management. The survival of cultural practices in artisanal fishing communities should be stimulated in sustainable development programs, and it involves maintaining ecological and technical knowledge related to fishing and the plant resources used to manufacture and maintain fishing equipment.     

Ethnobotany in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique: Use of Medicinal Plants

Communities in Cabo Delgado have a long tradition of using medicinal plants. In Mozambique, rural populations in general are highly dependent on natural resources. One example is the use of surrounding vegetation by people from Cabo Delgado. They use plants for food, handicrafts, construction, as a primary energy source and even for medicine purposes. In this survey, we examined the diversity of plant usage for medicinal purposes by 146 individuals, including adults and youth living in the Cabo Delgado province. This community quoted 16 species of plants, belonging to 13 families. Utilisation by different categories of people based on sex and age was compared and differences were found among some groups. In general, older people show a deeper knowledge of medicinal plants than younger people. Men and women show similar knowledge of medicinal plants.     

Environmental externalities in relation to agricultural sector in Thailand with trade-linked analysis

Thailand plays an important role in the international trade of food and agricultural products, which is in alignment with its national strategy of serving as the “kitchen of the world.” When looking at its agricultural promotion and export policies, the country only counts the value gains from exports while neglecting environmental externalities related to plantation practices. The purpose of this study was to perform a trade-off analysis between consumptive water, land, and fertilizer use together with the economic values of major crops for export and consumption in the country. The results show that to gain income from agricultural exports, the country has exploited various natural resources. The area used to harvest rice, sugarcane, cassava, and rubber adds up to approximately 15.3 million ha: 7.2 million ha of which is for domestic consumption and 8.1 ha for export. To produce Thailand’s agricultural exports, total water use is estimated to be 49.8–67.5 billion m³ per year (61–65 %), while the amount used to produce crops for domestic consumption is 26.5–43.7 billion m³ per year (35–39 %). Meanwhile, 1,056–1,826 thousand tons (54 %) of fertilizer was used on crops for domestic consumption, and 1,222–1,370 thousand tons (46 %) of fertilizer was used on export crops. The best crop choice for export in terms of its export value, land use, fertilizer use, and water consumption is rubber. The worst crop choices for export are rice and cassava. More sustainable agricultural practices are needed to effect improvements such as increased yields and reduced fertilizer and water use.     

Bushmeat consumption and its implications for wildlife conservation in the semi-arid region of Brazil

Hunting plays an important socioeconomic role in the semi-arid region of Brazil, by supplying meat and other products. Nevertheless, there is a lack of information on which species are most used by the local populations and what are the implications for conservation of exploited animals. This paper explores the bushmeat consumption in the Brazilian Caatinga region, where wild animals comprise an important protein source. A questionnaire was used to gather information from hunters, and the consumption of bushmeat by their families was monitored. Interviews revealed that 58 vertebrate species could potentially be consumed as bushmeat, but the samples provided by the monitored families comprised only 28 species. Birds were the animals most consumed, followed by mammals, although the biomass of both groups was similar. The consumption of bushmeat was not correlated with hunters’ socioeconomic data (income, age or schooling). Hunters recognized that the populations of some game species appeared to be declining, showing that bushmeat consumption, together with the cultural, economic and social aspects of the human populations involved in hunting, should be considered when discussing the conservation of animal resources in the Caatinga region.     

Contribution of the sugar cane industry to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector: the case of Mauritius

The aim of this paper was to present the contribution of the sugar cane industry to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. Mauritius is taken as a case study. Sugar cane was introduced in Mauritius during the seventeenth century and production of sugar started around 60 years later. Since then, the cane industry has been one of the economic pillars of the country. Bagasse, a by-product of sugar cane, is used as fuel in cogeneration power plants to produce process heat and electricity. This process heat and the generated electricity are used by an annexed sugar mills for the production of sugar, while the remaining electricity is exported to the national grid. In fact, Mauritius is a pioneer in the field of bagasse-based cogeneration power plant; the first bagasse-based cogeneration power plant that was commissioned in the world was in Mauritius in 1957. The contribution of the cane industry in the electricity sector has been vital for the economic development of Mauritius and also in terms of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions by displacing fossil fuels in electricity generation, as bagasse is classified as a renewable source. Data obtained from Statistics Mauritius on electricity production for the past 45 years were analysed, and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated based on international norms. It is estimated that savings on heavy fuel oil importation were by 1.5 million tons of oil—representing a value of 2.9 billion dollars—thus avoiding 4.5 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This figure can be further increased if molasses, a by-product of sugar cane juice, is used to produce bio-ethanol to be used as fuel in vehicles.     

陕南化龙山珍稀濒危植物的保护和利用

化龙山是大巴山系在川陕境内的最高山峰,海拔２９１７．２ｍ,植物资源丰富,有野生维管植物１９７７种,隶属１８６科８１５属。化龙山是陕西省珍稀濒危植物资源最丰富的地区,共有国家保护的珍稀濒危植物２２科３０属３３种,其中属一级保护１种,二级保护１１种,三级保护２１种,属濒危２种,稀有１４各,渐危１７种,珍稀濒危植物古老成分较多,并以第三纪孑遗成分为主单少型属和中国特有属分别是１６属和１０属。这些珍稀濒危     

Anishnaabe Aki: an indigenous perspective on the global threat of invasive species

Conservation discourses tend to portray invasive species as biological entities temporally connected to colonial timelines, using terms such as “alien”, “colonizing”, “colonial”, and “native”. This focus on a colonial timeline emerges from scientific publications within conservation biology and invasion ecology and is enacted through invasive species management by state and NGO actors. Colonialism is influential for indigenous nations in myriad ways, but in what ways do indigenous understandings of invasive species engage with colonialism? We conducted ethnographic research with indigenous Anishnaabe communities to learn about the ways Anishnaabe people conceptualize invasive species as a phenomenon in the world and were gifted with three primary insights. First, Anishnaabe regard plants, like all beings, as persons that assemble into nations more so than “species”. The arrival of new plant nations is viewed by some Anishnaabe as a natural form of migration. The second insight highlights the importance of actively discovering the purpose of new species, sometimes with the assistance of animal teachers. Lastly, while Anishnaabe describe invasive species as phenomenologically entangled with colonialism, the multiple ways Anishnaabe people think about invasive species provide alternatives to native–non-native binaries that dominate much of the scientific discourse.     

Experimental investigation of energy properties for Stigonematales sp. microalgae as potential biofuel feedstock

Microalgae has been considered potential biofuel source from the last decade owing to its versatile perspectives such as excellent capability of CO₂ capture and sequestration, water treatment, prolific growth rate and enormous energy content. Thus, energy research on microalgae is being harnessed to mitigate CO₂ and meet future energy demands. This study investigated the bioenergy potential of native blue-green microalgae consortium as initial energy research on microalgae in Brunei Darussalam. The local species of microalgae were assembled from rainwater drains, the species were identified as Stigonematales sp. and physical properties were characterised. Sundried biomass with moisture content ranging from 6.5% to 7.37% was measured to be used to determine the net and gross calorific value and they were 7.98 MJ/kg-8.57 MJ/kg and 8.70 MJ/kg-9.45 MJ/kg, respectively. Besides that, the hydrogen content, ash content, volatile matter, and bulk density were also experimented and they were 2.56%-3.15%, 43.6%-36.71%, 57–38%-63.29% and 661.2 kg/m³-673.07 kg/m³, respectively. Apart from experimental values, other physical bioenergy parameters were simulated and they were biomass characteristic index 61,822.29 kg/m³-62,341.3 kg/m³, energy density 5.27 GJ/m³-5.76G J/m³ and fuel value index 86.19–88.54. With these experimental results, microalgae manifested itself a potential source of biofuel feedstock for heat and electricity generation, a key tool to bring down the escalated atmospheric greenhouse gases and an alternation for fossil fuel.     

Sustainable cooking energy options for rural poor people in India: an empirical study

Currently, energy consumption for cooking in rural households of India is mostly based on fuelwood used in traditional stoves. This paper presents results of a study carried out in a forest fringe area of India on cooking energy use. The concept of calculating levelized cost as cost per unit of useful energy is applied on source–device combinations of cooking and validated in Bargaon Community Development Block of Sundergarh District in Odisha, India. About 92 % of the households in the study area use fuelwood as the only energy source for cooking; the total use of fuelwood for only cooking, in the Block is nearly 1.8 times the total sustainable wood supply showing an urgent need for promoting alternative cooking energy options. This paper also presents an assessment of different cooking options in terms of cost per unit of useful cooking energy. LPG, biogas and gasifier stoves are found to be far too expensive for the local people. Briquette-fired improved stoves appear to be a promising cooking energy option in the study area. Government support and intervention are recommended for promoting this option.     

Observed climate-induced changes in plant phenology in the Netherlands

We determined whether climate change in the Netherlands has caused phenological changes since 1868. We analysed over 150,000 plant phenological observations of 320 plant species, obtained by four volunteer networks and one series collected by Mr. Braaksma. With the network data, we compared the timing of life cycle events in three different periods: 1894–1932 (Period 1), 1940–1968 (Period 2) and 2001–2010 (Period 3). For the Braaksma series, we compared the periods 1953–1968 (Period A) with 1969–1992 (Period B). We conclude that until the beginning of the 1990s, there have been no significant changes in the timing of life cycle events. The timing of life cycle events in Period 3 showed an average advance of flowering, leaf unfolding and fruit ripening of 14 days compared with Period 1 and 13 days compared with Period 2. Some species have advanced up to over 35 days. Autumn events occurred up to an average of 7 days later in Period 3 compared to earlier periods. This study shows that, based on network data, changes in climate explain on average 66 % of the variation in timing of phenological events from year to year. For the Braaksma data, this is 38 %. The expected future changes in climate will undoubtedly result in a further lengthening of the growing season. We believe that phenological networks, supported by thousands of volunteers, are needed to quantify, analyse, predict and communicate these phenological changes so various sectors in society can adapt to these changes and prevent significant socio-economic impacts.     

Which crop production system is more efficient in energy use: wheat or barley?

Efficient use of energy helps to achieve increased production and productivity and contributes to the economy, profitability, and competitiveness of agricultural sustainability of rural communities. Evaluation of wheat and barley production systems in view of energy balance was conducted in Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran. Data were collected by using a face-to-face questionnaire from wheat and barley fields in 2011. Results revealed that total energy input for wheat was 51,040 MJ ha^?1 and for barley 44,866; in wheat and barley systems, renewable energy was consumed by 25.43 and 23.53 %, while non-renewable energy was consumed by 74.57 and 76.47 %, respectively. Energy use efficiency, energy productivity, and net energy were 1.7 kg MJ^?1, 0.088 kg MJ^?1, and 35,987 MJ ha^?1 in wheat system and 1.83 kg MJ^?1, 0.092 kg MJ^?1, and 33,833 MJ ha^?1 in barley system, respectively. Energy intensiveness in wheat fields (61.84 MJ $^?1) was higher than in barley fields (58.71 MJ $^?1). Also, benefit-to-cost ratio in wheat system (1.59) was higher than in barley system (1.35). In general, production in barley fields was more sustainable than wheat production because, in view of ecological indices such as amount of energy use and renewable energy consumption, it was more environment-friendly production.     

江西大余县荡坪钨矿尾矿区自然植物组成及其重金属富集特征

研究江西大余县荡坪国有钨矿尾砂库区自然植物组成分布及其重金属富集特征，旨在为今后矿区植被重建与植物修复重金属污染土壤提供科学依据。结果表明：库区共出现了20种植物，隶属15科20属，其中草本植物14种，木本植物6种；这些植物明显生长不良，且主要分布在库区湿润或有水出现的沙土地区。尾砂库区中，不同重金属含量在同一植物体内大小趋势为Zn>Pb>Cu>Cd。库区没有发现重金属的超富集植物，大部分为Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd的耐性植物。荡坪尾砂库区土壤Cd污染严重，木贼与蜈蚣草为Cd的避性植物，可用于库区Cd污染土壤的植被重建先锋物种；土荆芥与香附子为Cd的积累植物，可以用于库区Cd污染土壤的植物修复；其它植物为Cd的排斥植物，可用于库区Cd污染土壤的植物固化.     

Sand dunes management: a comparative analysis of ecological versus economic valuations applied to the Coastal region in Israel

Mobile coastal dunes are of significant ecological importance both globally and locally. Yet a large portion of these dunes are disappearing due to encroachment of local shrubs and exotic plants, resulting in changes of floristic and faunal composition, and an overall decrease in biodiversity of coastal systems. Active management is therefore required to maintain mobile dune presence. This study focuses on economic valuation of coastal dunes in Israel, based on public and professional ecological perspectives. This comparison allows reflection on the suitability of a contingent valuation method (CVM) to assess ecological restoration and conservation projects. The CVM was applied in Nizzanim LTER nature reserve in Israel, and concurrently, data of plant species composition on stabilized and mobile dunes were used to calculate the ecological value index (EVI) of the different dune states. The EVI was then transformed into monetary terms by combining the public valuation and the relative proportion of the various species to the total coverage. The monetary values derived from the general public and the ecological assessment were then compared and used to estimate the expected change in economic value resulting from a state shift from mobile to stabilized dunes. According to the CVM, the total value of the Nizzanim coastal dunes would drop from 344 to 197 million Israeli Shekels (NIS) (1 Shekel = $0.39) if active management does not take place, a reduction of 42 % in value. However, results from the EVI indicate only a 33 % decrease in ecological value (in monetary terms) in the absence of active management. We suggest that in this case, general public perception is strong enough to justify conservation decisions, even though they are not professional ecologists. However, we still recommend the use of both measures for land use decision making.     

Variation among chlorine concentration ratios for native and agronomic plants

Variation among plant/soil concentration ratios (CRs) for important radionuclides requires attention because it is a major source of uncertainty in nuclear environmental safety assessments. For agronomic plants, variation among plant species is easy to deal with because there are relatively few species. In natural settings, there are vastly more species and the question becomes how to develop representative statistical distributions of CRs. Chlorine (Cl) is a good element with which to address this problem, because ³⁶Cl is a key radionuclide in nuclear waste disposal and yet stable Cl is easily measured in the environment. We measured CRs (dry weight basis) for Cl among edible parts of agronomic plants at one site, and found a geometric mean (GM) of 10, a geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 1.9 and a range of 5–66. When the GM was weighted by the relative contributions of the various plants to the human diet, it rose to 16. Among native plants at five sites, each site representative of a specific environment, the GMs were 4.0–13 and the GSDs were 2.9–6.2. The CRs for individual species ranged from 0.8 to 170. However, when weighted by relative contributions of the plants to selected animal diets, the GMs were as high as 50. The conclusions are that: the variation in CR for agronomic plants is a subset of the variation among native or all plants, variation among species (the GSD) can be sixfold, and variation among species is large enough that typical diets of specific animals could expose them to several-fold higher amounts of Cl (or ³⁶Cl) than expected from generic CR values.     

Depictions of sustainability in children’s books

Images in children’s books can leave a more lasting impression in young learners’ minds than text. Therefore, it is important for children’s books to use images as a teaching tool, especially regarding global issues such as environmental sustainability. This study examined how the images in nonfiction children’s books approach the topic of sustainability and whether these images support the overall goals of environmental education. We selected seven easy-to-access trade books which yielded 384 images for analysis. Two coders analyzed the images according to the following categories: (a) gender and age, (b) actions of people, (c) depictions of nature, (d) depictions of objects, (e) structures, and (f) habitation. Results show that nearly half of the images (48 %) depicted non-natural objects (16 %) or humans (31 %). One half of the images portrayed humans as consumers. Gender bias was evident, with 33 % of females portrayed as consumers and only 16 % of males portrayed as consumers. Similarly, 12 % of the images with males showed them engaged in recycling behavior, while only 4 % of the images showed females recycling. Of the 32 % of images depicting nature, individual plants rather than ecosystems were portrayed. Depictions of man-made systems predominated the images, a surprising finding. No images established the connection between consumerism and the depletion of natural resources or pollution, and further sustainable actions or lifestyles were not portrayed, implying that consumption is a societal norm. We conclude with recommendations for the use of images in children’s literature focusing on environmental education and sustainability.     

Assessment of vulnerability of the eastern Cretan beaches (Greece) to sea level rise

Beaches are both sensitive and critical components of the coastal systems, as they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change (e.g., the sea level rise) and form valuable coastal ecosystems and economic resources. The objective of the present study has been to record the spatial characteristics and other attributes (e.g., topography, sediments and accessibility) of the 71 beaches of the E. Crete (Eastern Mediterranean) that are either already developed or have a reasonable development potential and assess their erosion risk under sea level rise. Beach retreats are predicted by ensembles of six cross-shore (1D) analytical and numerical morphodynamic models, set up/forced on the basis of collected/collated information and three sea level rise scenarios (0.26, 0.82 and 1.86 m); these retreats are then compared with the recorded maximum (dry) beach widths. Projections by the unified ensemble suggest that, in the case of a 0.26 m rise, 80 % of the examined beaches are to retreat by more than 20 and 16 % by more than 50 % of their maximum dry width. In the case of a 0.82 m rise, 72 % of the tested beaches are predicted to retreat by more than 50 % of their dry width and 21 % by a distance at least equal to their observed maximum dry widths. A sea level rise of 1.86 m represents a ‘doom’ scenario, as 75 % of the beaches are predicted to retreat by more than their maximum width. These results may be conservative, as other significant beach erosion factors (e.g., decreasing beach sediment supply) have not been considered.