洞庭湖稻作区褐家鼠种群数量预测

1986年10月至1990年9月对洞庭湖稻作区褐家鼠的种群数量进行了逐月调查的基础上，对影响褐家鼠种群数量变动的因子(种群基数、种群年龄结构和气候等因子)进行了逐一分析和筛选。再从简单性、实用性考虑，确定了和预测月份(7月、9月)相关系数显著的主要影响因子，3月份农舍褐家鼠的夹捕率、3月农舍夹捕褐家鼠群体中的成功比和3月份月平均气温。根据洞庭湖稻作区农业耕作制度以及褐家鼠对该地区农业生产危害的特点，建立了2个农田褐家鼠种群数量预测模型：Y1=0.4590X1 0.6523X2-0.4194X3-7.4563和Y2=0.2773X1 0.3978X2-0.2459X3-4.5693,Y1模型预测当年7月农田褐家鼠种群的数量，Y2模型预测当年9月农田褐家鼠种群的数量。实际运用该预测模型对湖南省汉寿县1997年7月、9月，1998年7月、9月，1999年7月、9月，2000年7月农田褐家鼠种群的发生数量进行预报，发生数量级预测值与实测值吻合程度良好。     

气候变化对长江干流区径流量的影响

长江干流区在我国经济发展中有举足轻重的地位,是我国东西经济联系的纽带和桥梁。气候变化是当今气象界讨论的重要课题,其对全球日益紧张的水资源影响已引起各国政府、学者的关注。以重庆、万县、汉口、宜昌、贵池五站为代表,通过长江干流区近８０年观测资料和每站对应的气温、降水资料,分析了气候变化对长江干流区径流量的影响。以分组频率法找出了各站的枯水年、平水年、丰水年。丰枯水年降水量距平百分率分别为２２．６％～３０．８％及－２２．１％～－２９．４％,径流量为６．４～９．６％及－２．７～－７．０％。     

三峡库区柏木林降雨的再分配及养分循环研究

以三峡库区柏木林为对象,定量研究了雨季（７月）林分中降雨的再分配及Ｎ、Ｐ两种养分元素的循环过程。研究结果表明：１）穿透雨量占总降雨量的７９．７０％,树干茎流占总降雨量的１．１７％,树冠截留量占总降雨量的１９．１３％,地表径流系数平均为１９８％;２）由于淋溶作用,实际进入林地的穿透雨和树干茎流中总Ｎ和总Ｐ的含量均升高了较大的幅度。降雨时总Ｎ和总Ｐ含量的相对平衡值分别为０４６１ ｍｇ／Ｌ和０．０７５ ｍｇ／Ｌ,淋溶系数为１．８６和２．９４,迁移系数为０．５７和０．２９;３）柏木林生态系统中,Ｎ的总贮量为３６． ００ ｘ１０３ｋｇ／ｈｍ２,Ｐ的总贮量为２．５１２ Ｘ １０３ｋｇ／ｈｍ２,其绝大部分（Ｎ为 ９９． ５％, Ｐ为 ９８． ８％）贮藏在土壤库中; ４）在有燃料输出的情况下,系统中的 Ｎ和 Ｐ循环效率分别为０．４３和０．４１。燃料的输出导致系统Ｎ和Ｐ循环效率降低,土壤中养分减少,从而导致系统养分的缺乏,生产力下降。     

气候变化对我国亚热带地区柑桔生态环境影响的研究

分析了柑桔的品质和产量与气候因子的关系，确定负积温（日最低气温＜０℃）∝≤－９０℃和极端最低气温≤－８℃为柑桔严重减产的低温指标；７～８月份平均降水量＜２０Ｏｍｍ是引起柑桔大量落果和影响果实膨大的水分条件。提出柑桔严重冻害周期在长江流域地区间差异大，预测到本世纪末，长江中、下游平原柑桔存在严重冻害；干旱和严重干旱在长江中、下游地区出现频率１２％～４５％以上。因此，避冻、抗冻、抗旱是本区柑桔生态环境中一个长期战略问题．     

长江三峡花岗岩地区土壤流失时间分布特性

长江三峡花岗岩地区坡面土壤流失以耕地砂砾化面蚀和有部分植物覆盖坡面的鳞片状面蚀为主，该地土壤流失研究结果表明，由以上两类面蚀导致的土壤流失量月分布与月降雨量的分布基本趋势一致，二者呈现较为明显的线性相关关系。地面坡度＞３０°的裸地土壤流失量达５０００ｔ／ｋｍ３·ａ以上，覆盖度≥０．７０的林地土壤流失量＜５００ｔ／ｋｍ２·ａ，该流域土壤流失量为１５４４．１４ｔ／ｋｍ２·ａ，产沙量为６９４．８６ｔ／ｋｍ２·ａ     

气候变化对长江干流流区径流量的影响

长江干流区在我国发展中有举足轻重的地位,是我国东西经济联系的纽带和桥梁。气候为化是当 象界讨论的重要课题,其对全球日益紧张的水资源影响已引起各国政府学者的关注。以重庆,万县,汉口,宜昌,贵池五站为代表,通过长江干流区近８０年观测资料和每站对应的气温,降水资料,分析了气候变化对长江干流区径流量的影响,以分组频率 找出了各站的枯水年,平均水年,丰水年。丰枯水年降水量距平百分率分别为２２．６％－３０．８     

长江流域月降水的多尺度随机特征及其分区

提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解的多尺度信息熵方法来分析长江流域138个气象站1961～2016年的月降水在不同时间尺度下的随机性,然后,采用模糊C均值聚类(FCM)算法对流域月降水进行空间区划,最后,探讨各区平均月降水序列与厄尔尼诺1+2区的平均海表温度(NINO1+2)之间的时滞相关性.结果表明:(1)长江流域月降水存在明显的季节、年际和年代际变化特征;(2)流域月降水在不同时间尺度下的随机性均呈现出东部高-西部低的空间分布模式,并且流域月降水的IMF分量的随机性随时间尺度的增大而降低,且不同地区间其随机性的差异越来越大;(3)流域月降水在各IMF分量上的随机性沿纬向自西向东逐渐增大,而沿经向呈现出拟均匀性;(4)流域月降水在空间上可划分为6个一致性子区域:西部高原区、西南部横断山区、北部低山盆地区、南部低山丘陵区、东南部鄱阳湖平原区和东部长江三角洲区;(5)流域各区平均月降水对NINO1+2的最佳响应时滞自东南沿海向内陆地区依次由2个月延长至4个月.     

长江八里江江段江豚种群数量、行为及其活动规律与保护

1989－1999年，在长江八里江江段对江豚进行了28次往返观察和8次定点观察。结果表明，近10年八里江江段江豚种群数量遥感量逐年呈明显递减趋势，平均每年以7．3％速率递减；1996年后，枯水季节江豚不再进行江一湖迁移，其活动范围仅限于约20km长的八里江江口上下江段，较1993年以前缩短了约40km。江豚在八里江江段的行为多种多样，通过对江豚种群在八里江江段的集群、摄食、逃避、发情与交配、抚幼、歇息和玩耍行为的描述、比较和分析，认为长江八里江江段是江豚典型的摄食和抚幼场所，同时也是江豚大规模集群的适宜栖居地。提出了加强八里江江段江豚种群常年监测的必要性，并对八里江江段江豚种群的就地保护提出了建议。     

长江湖北新螺江段长江江豚数量、分布和活动的研究

在物种保护实践中，对濒危物种的生态及行为进行监测至关重要。长江新螺段白鱀豚国家级自然保护区是长江江豚仅有的3个国家级原地保护区之一，然而较系统的监测至今还未见报道。2001年7月～2003年6月，采取常年监测与临时重点监测相结合，定点监测与流动监测相结合的方式对该保护区内长江江豚的种群数量、分布、活动规律及栖息地选择等作了研究，并提出了相应的保护建议。结果显示，保护区可能有长江江豚50～64头，多以2～3头为群生活，主要集中在沿岸浅水区；动物集群出现在3～6月，次数和规模远不如20 a前；长江江豚的集群和栖息地选择可能与觅食、休息和交配繁殖有关。建议控制过往船只速度，打击非法渔业，对近岸区要加强监测力度，尤其是在交配繁殖季节，对江豚活动频繁的团洲站、土地洲站、龙口站和腰口站要重点监测保护。
     

长江流域月降水的EEMD多时间尺度遥相关分析

基于长江流域138个气象站1961~2016年的逐月降水观测资料，应用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法，分别对各站点的月降水序列进行EEMD分解，然后，运用时滞相关分析和逐步变量选择的方法，以识别长江流域月降水周期振荡和长期趋势的显著影响因子，并构建多元线性回归模型对长江流域月降水进行预测。结果表明：（1）近50多年来，长江流域各站点的月降水呈现出显著的季节、年际和年代际尺度振荡特征。（2）流域内各站点月降水的长期变化趋势存在着较大的空间差异性，表现为金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河以及鄱阳湖流域是月降水长期趋势显著增加的集中区，而岷江中游以及洞庭湖流域的南部是月降水长期趋势显著减少的集中区。（3）厄尔尼诺1+2区的平均海表温度（NINO1+2）的过去模式是影响长江流域月降水周期振荡的主要气候因子，而全球平均气温距平（GlobalT）是影响长江流域月降水长期趋势的主要气候因子。（4）基于已识别的影响因子构建的月降水量预测模型在旱季的预报性能高于雨季，并在长江上游地区的预报性能高于其中下游地区。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Human exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE), as evidenced by data from a duplicate diet study, indoor air, house dust, and biomonitoring in Germany

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) are used as flame retardants in a wide variety of products. As part of the Integrated Exposure Assessment Survey (INES), this study aimed to characterize the exposure of an adult German population using duplicate diet samples, which were collected daily over seven consecutive days, and indoor air and house dust measurements. Our study population consisted of 27 female and 23 male healthy subjects, aged 14–60 years, all of whom resided in 34 homes in southern Bavaria. In these 34 residences the air was sampled using glass fiber filters and polyurethane foams and the dust was collected from used vacuum cleaner bags.The median (95th percentile) daily dietary intake of six Tetra- to HeptaBDE congeners was 1.2 ng/kg b.w. (3.3 ng/kg b.w.) or 67.8 ng/day (208 ng/day) (calculated from the 7-day median values of each study subject). Concentrations in indoor air and dust (cumulative Tri- to DecaBDE congener readings) ranged from 8.2 to 477 pg/m³ (median: 37.8 pg/m³) and 36.6 to 1580 ng/g (median: 386 ng/g), respectively. For some congeners, we identified a significant correlation between air and dust levels.The median (95th percentile) blood concentration of total Tetra- to HexaBDE congener readings was 5.6 (13.2) ng/g lipid. No significant sex differences were observed, but higher blood concentrations were found in younger participants. Using a simplified toxicokinetic model to predict the body burden from exposure doses led to results that were of the same order of magnitude as the measured blood concentrations.Based on these measurements and given our exposure assumptions, we estimated for the total tetra- to heptabrominated congener count an average (high) comprehensive total daily intake of 1.2 ng/kg b.w. (2.5 ng/kg b.w.). Overall, our results suggest that dietary exposure is the dominant intake pathway at least in our study population, responsible for 97% (average intake) and 95% (high intake) of the total intake of an adult population.     

A new general mechanistic river model for radionuclides from single pulse fallouts which can be run by readily accessible driving variables

This paper presents a new general, process-based river model for substances such as radionuclides from single pulse fallouts. The new model has been critically tested using data from 13 European rivers contaminated by radiocesium from the Chernobyl accident. This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases; and also concentrations in sediments and fish, but the latter aspects are not discussed in this paper) at defined river sites. The model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the upstream catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow ( approximately wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment. The catchment area sub-model is based on a previous catchment model, which has been tested with very good results for radiocesium, radiostrontium and Ca-concentrations (from liming operations). The new river model is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, continentality, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, soil type (percentages or organic and sandy soils), fallout and month of fallout. Modelled values have been compared to independent empirical data from 10 rivers sites (91 data on radiocesium in water) covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 4000 to 180 000 km(2), precipitation from 500 to 960 mm/yr and fallout from 1700 to 660 000 Bq/m(2)). The new model predicts very well--when modelled values are compared to empirical data, the slope is perfect (1.0) and the r(2)-value is 0.90. This is good giving the fact that there are also uncertainties in the empirical data, which set a limit to the achieved predictive power, as expressed by the r(2)-value.     

The influence of hot particle contamination on Sr and Cs transfers to milk and on time-integrated ingestion doses

Most models for transfers of radionuclides through the food chain typically assume that the radioactivity is initially deposited in chemically available forms. It is known, however, that releases of radionuclides in the form of hot particles may significantly influence their environmental transfers and uptake to the food chain. This study presents models for time changes in ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs in milk which incorporate hot particle contamination using observed rates of hot particle dissolution following the Chernobyl accident. A general equation is presented for the influence of hot particles on overall ingestion doses. As expected from previous work, fallout of hot particles significantly influences time changes in radionuclide activity concentrations in foodstuffs. It is also shown that incorporation of radionuclides in hot particles influences time-integrated ingestion doses. For a situation in which a large proportion (90–100%) of fallout is in slowly dissolving hot particles, time-integrated ingestion doses from ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs are reduced by a factor of approximately two compared to the case where all radioactivity is deposited in bioavailable forms. However, the influence of rapidly dissolving hot particles on time-integrated ingestion doses is relatively minor. Remaining significant uncertainties in dose estimates are discussed.     

Narratives,Rhetorical Genres,and Environmental Conflict: Responses to Schwarze's “Environmental Melodrama”

The appearance of Steven Schwarze's essay, “Environmental Melodrama” (Schwarze, 2006) as the lead article in a recent issue of The Quarterly Journal of Speech marks an important moment of recognition for environmental communication scholarship. Schwarze's essay demonstrates how studies of environmental rhetoric can contribute to rhetorical theory more generally, while addressing practical questions regarding the rhetorical aspects of environmental conflict. The contributors to this forum respond to Schwarze's arguments, drawing in part upon their own case studies of rhetorical action and narrative in environmental conflict.     

The Phenomenon of Pseudoviviparity in Alpine and Arctomontane Grasses (DeschampsiaBeauv., FestucaL., and PoaL.)

It is known that pseudoviviparous plant taxa are most numerous in the Arctic and high mountain regions, where they sometimes account for a noticeable part of the local flora and play an important phytocenotic role. The complex of pseudoviviparous taxa is an interesting model for investigating the processes of hybridogenic speciation, as various mechanisms stabilizing the hybrid genetic systems proved to be effective in them. In particular, this concerns vast and taxonomically complex groups such as the genera Deschampsia, Festuca, and Poa.In this paper, published data on the taxonomy, chromosome numbers, and distribution of pseudoviviparous grasses in the Arctic regions and subarctic mountain systems are reviewed.     

Communities of hydrobionts developing at the water-rock interface in Lake Baikal

Development of benthic communities on rocks from the interdisciplinary test site near Cape Berezovyi (southern Baikal) is analyzed. Rock plates were placed on the bottom in the shallow-water zone of Baikal for six months, and a community consisting of microorganisms, microphytobenthos, and meiobenthos developed on them. The development and activity of hydrobionts depended on the chemical composition and structure of the rock. Marble and granite plates were populated by them more selectively than amphibolite plates. It is supposed that the biota plays an important role in destruction of rocks in the shallow-water zone of Baikal.