Use of kriging models to predict 12-hour mean ozone concentrations in Metropolitan Toronto-A pilot study

Ozone concentrations exhibit spatial variability within metropolitan areas, resulting in significantly different personal exposures among individuals. This paper uses the statistical technique, kriging, to explore the 12-h daytime (8am–8pm) ozone spatial variation and to predict mean outdoor ozone levels at home sites within the Toronto metropolitan area. Outdoor ozone measurements taken in the Toronto metropolitan area between June and August 1992 are used in kriging models to predict outdoor ozone concentrations. The performance of the model is evaluated by comparing actual home outdoor measurements with predicted values. Results indicate that kriging predictions are more accurate than using only the closest stationary ambient site measurements for determining home outdoor ozone concentrations within the metropolitan area. The average variogram obtained from pooling data throughout the entire sampling period shows a clear spatial trend in the outdoor ozone variation. Kriging predictions using the parameters from the average variogram perform as well as those using variograms from individual days. An approach for minimizing sample bias can be used to increase the accuracy of the predictions; cross-validation suggests that it is a reasonable procedure.     

Optimal design of additional sampling pattern for drinking-water quality control

A crucial step in complementary studies of the water quality determination is to design the additional sampling pattern or, in other words, to determine the number and location of the additional samples. Since location and number of samples highly affect decisions’ uncertainties, and because sampling process is quite costly and time-consuming, optimization of the sampling pattern will enhance the efficiency and productivity. Solution of such an optimization problem requires defining an objective function and constraints. There exist many previous studies regarding locating additional samples in other environmental problems wherein the objective function is defined as the minimization of the kriging variance (based on the problem nature), but the point is that kriging variance is not sensitive to local variability. Since manner and extent of small-scale variations are both important and necessary in water quality studies, it is required to resolve this shortcoming of the traditional objective function. Solution is to make use of the combined variance consisting of kriging and local variances. In this study, the applicability and efficiency of the minimization of combined variance as the objective function of the additional sampling was adopted and proved for a salt marsh (east of Iran) on the basis of a simulated annealing-based algorithm. It was shown, practically, that the locational distribution of additional sampling points is quite logical and more compatible with experts’ proposed methods using this objective function (compared to the traditional one).     

三峡库区消落带农用坡地氮素流失特征及其环境效应

三峡库区消落带坡地的自发农用较为常见，消落带的这种利用方式可能加剧养分流失并对库区水环境造成影响。通过对库区2011~2013年3个落干期消落带农用坡地的地表径流、壤中流中氮素形态与浓度进行定位监测，研究消落带农用坡地氮素流失特征及其环境效应。结果表明：常规施肥下，消落带农用坡地侵蚀模数为1 443 kg/（hm2·a），落干期内坡地平均径流量为230 mm，径流系数为0.58，其中壤中流流量占总径流量的77%。历次降雨产流事件中常规施肥处理时，地表径流、壤中流中TN平均浓度分别是4.85±0.85、20.73±2.05 mg/L，落干期地表径流（泥沙）和壤中流的TN流失量分别为6.63±1.19、35.22±3.38 kg/hm2，分别占当季施肥量的2.2%、11.7%。可见，随壤中流流失是三峡库区消落带农用坡地氮素流失的主要途径。与常规施肥处理相比，减量施肥处理使地表径流（泥沙）、壤中流TN流失通量分别显著降低了25%、48%，表明减少氮肥用量可以显著降低消落带农用带来的环境风险，建议消落带农用地氮肥进行减量施肥，使其既不影响作物产量，也显著降低氮流失。 关键词： 三峡水库；消落带；地表径流；壤中流；氮负荷；减量施肥     

环鄱阳湖区农田土壤有机碳影响因素空间分布格局分析及制图研究

利用地理加权回归(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)模型,对环鄱阳湖区农田土壤有机碳(Soil Organic Carbon, SOC)影响因子的空间分布格局进行系统分析,结合克里格插值方法进行土壤有机碳制图研究,同时综合比较了地理加权回归方法(GWRK)与回归克里格(Return Kriging,RK)方法在预测土壤有机碳储量结果之间存在的差异。结果表明:(1)根据Pearson相关性分析结果,所选取的各环境影响因素均与土壤有机碳具有相关性(P0.01)。(2)通过GWR模型对各影响因素空间分布格局的分析,发现SOC与坡向、年均温度和年均降水呈正相关,与坡度、植被覆盖度呈负相关。(3)GWRK法得到的土壤有机碳含量变化范围为6.35～31.93g·kg~(-1),接近采样点的实测值;RK方法得到的土壤有机碳含量变化范围在7.41～25.76 g·kg~(-1),总体空间分布特征与GWRK的结果相似,但RK方法预测的结果较为平滑,与SOC储量实际状况还存在一定差异。(4)GWR的拟合优度R~2(0.50)明显高于RK中的R~2(0.20); GWRK方法的均方根误差(RMSE)为4.58,小于RK方法的均方根误差5.35,且通过GWRK方法得出的预测结果在制图上结合采样点位置信息,使成图效果更加精细。     

Prediction of RF-EMF exposure levels in large outdoor areas through car-mounted measurements on the enveloping roads

Knowledge of spatial and temporal trends in the environmental exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) is a key prerequisite for RF-EMF risk assessment studies attempting to establish a link between RF-EMF and potential effects on human health as well as on fauna and flora. In this paper, we determined the validity of RF exposure modelling based on inner-area kriging interpolation of measurements on the surrounding streets. The results vary depending on area size and shape and structural factors; a Spearman coefficient of 0.8 and a relative error of less than 3.5 dB are achieved on a data set featuring a closed measurement ring around a decently sized area (1 km², with an average minimum distance of the encircled area to the ring of less than 100 m), containing mainly low, detached buildings. In larger areas, additional inner-area sampling is advised, lowering the average minimum distance between sampled and interpolated locations to 100 m, to achieve the same level of accuracy.     

Ecological Zoning of Forests in Areas Exposed to Industrial Air Pollution

Morphometric characteristics of the growth of forest stands located at different distances from a large copper-smelting plant were estimated. The set of diagnostic parameters obtained was used for calculating summary parameters of the state (SPSs) of the forest stands and to grade their values for zoning the forests. The results of using semivariance analysis demonstrated the appropriateness of kriging, a method of spatial interpolation, for mapping the surfaces of the state of forests. The map-scheme of the zones differing in the state of forest stands (made on the basis of summary parameters) was compared with the topographic map of the area, which made it possible to estimate the effect of large forms of relief on the location and configuration of the zones.     

江西省耕地土壤氮素空间变异特征及其影响因素

为定量探讨省域尺度下土壤氮素空间变异特征及其影响因素。以江西省2012年测土配方施肥项目采集的16 582个耕地表层(0~20 cm)土壤样点数据，运用普通克里格、单因素方差分析与回归分析方法，对土壤氮素空间变异特征及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）江西省土壤全氮(TN)含量在026~375 g/kg之间，平均值为158 g/kg，变异系数为3101%；碱解氮(AN)含量值域范围为1160~39970 mg/kg，平均值为16431 mg/kg，变异系数为3460%；二者均呈中等程度的变异性。（2）经半方差分析，TN与AN的变程分别为31489和3030 km，TN的空间自相关范围大而AN较小。（3）在空间分布上，高值区主要分布在新余市、抚州市与景德镇市。（4）回归分析与单因素方差分析结果表明，地形因子、耕地利用方式、成土母质、土壤类型和秸秆还田方式对土壤氮素空间变异影响极显著(P<001)。秸秆还田方式对土壤TN与AN空间变异的独立解释能力最高，分别为271%与42%，是影响江西土壤氮素空间变异的主要因素。     

MEAD (part I)--a mathematical model of the long-term dispersion of radioactivity in shelf sea environments

A mathematical model (MEAD) that simulates the transport of radioactivity in shelf-sea environments is presented. In the model it is assumed that the radioactivity can be present in three phases and transport both within and between the phases is captured. The set-up of the model for the Irish Sea is described and results from a simple discharge scenario are presented for (137)Cs and (239)Pu. From these results it appears that MEAD provides a good representation of the transport of radionuclides in the Irish Sea.     

The Polluter-Pays Principle and its Environmental Consequences for Industrial Waste Management

The paper maintains that, as a means toward achieving the ideal of a sustainable development, industrial waste should best be regarded in business-economic terms as having the same basic status as regular products. It is shown how an approach to proportioning industrial costs to waste that is described can be applied to the Polluter-Pays Principle in a way incorporating this principle into a company's internal estimation system. In two case studies presented, use of this approach is found to generate a waste-reducing incentive through showing waste to have a negative impact on estimates of profit.     

Arsenic in Drinking Water and Its Removal

Superfluous arsenic in drinking water can do harm to human health. In this paper, a broad overview of the available technologies for arsenic removal has been presented on the basis of literature survey. The main treatment methods included coagu- lation-sedimentation, adsorption separation and ion exchange, membrane technique, which have both advantages and disadvan- tages. It concluded that the selection of treatment process should be site specific and prevailing conditions and no process can serve the purpose under diverse conditions as each technology has its own limitations. In order to gain good results, some methods should be improved.     

基于地理加权回归克里金的降水数据融合及其在水文预报中的应用

地理加权回归克里金(GWRK)是在地理加权回归(GWR)基础上扩展得到的一种既能考虑回归关系的空间非平稳性又能考虑回归变量空间自相关性的降水数据融合方法。以赣江流域为例,在评价TRMM卫星数据精度的基础上,分别以GWRK和GWR方法构建了站点-卫星降水数据融合模型,然后采用降水融合数据驱动GR4J水文模型进行水文预报。根据站点尺度降水融合数据精度及水文预报表现,对GWRK和GWR构建的降水融合模型效果进行评价,结果表明:较之GWR方法,GWRK方法能较明显的提高降水融合数据在站点尺度上的精度,但是由于输入到水文模型中的数据为面降水数据,受空间均化的影响,对水文预报精度的提高不如对站点尺度降水融合数据精度的提高明显。     

Arsenic in Drinking Water and Its Removal

Abstract

Superfluous arsenic in drinking water can do harm to human health. In this paper, a broad overview of the available technologies for arsenic removal has been presented on the basis of literature survey. The main treatment methods included coagulation-sedimentation, adsorption separation and ion exchange, membrane technique, which have both advantages and disadvantages. It concluded that the selection of treatment process should be site specific and prevailing conditions and no process can serve the purpose under diverse conditions as each technology has its own limitations. In order to gain good results, some methods should be improved.     

Indicators to identify the agricultural pressures on environmental functions and their use in the development of agri-environmental measures

The effects of agricultural activities on the environment can be presented by suitable pressure indicators. These pressure indicators can also be used as control variables to achieve a desired environmental state. Therefore, pressure indicators can play a decisive role in the elaboration of agri-environmental measures. This paper deals with the use of pressure indicators to assess the sustainability of agricultural land use on the one hand, and their contribution to the development of agri-environmental measures on the other hand. After the illustration of the general political background on the CAP evolution and the information needed for monitoring, control and ex-post assessment, the methodological approach of the AEMBAC project to provide this information is presented. Experiences in applying pressure indicators in assessing the agri-environmental measures are discussed and their applicability for the identification of environmental impacts, management and monitoring is evaluated.     

Israeli Water Achievements Today and Enlightenment to China

Despite the endemic drought, arid climate and associated limited freshwater resources, as well as difficult geopolitical realities, Israel can provide a reliable supply of high quality water to a rapidly growing population. The achievements of water supply in Israel can be summarized as water technologies （like water transportation and purification, desalination, wastewater treatment, effluent reuse, storm water catchment, control systems, rain enhancement and drip irrigation, etc.）, water management and legislation as well as water industry. In view of the national concern regarding the quality and quantity of the water, the skills, technologies and know-how that Israel has accumulated in water supply and irrigation can give us enlightenment that is also presented in this paper.     

Ecological economics: themes, approaches, and differences with environmental economics

This article provides a short overview of the main themes of ecological economics (EE). It is argued that EE provides a platform that fosters multidisciplinary environmental research by bringing together the core contributing disciplines – economics and ecology. In addition, EE is regarded as a pluralistic approach to environmental research that can be set opposite to, and has indeed developed as a response to, traditional environmental and resource economics. A comparison of the two fields is presented to clarify the essential differences between them. In addition, specific themes are examined in more detail. These include: sustainable development; the growth debate; international trade; dynamic processes; and behaviour and policy. Electronic Publication     

Israeli Water Achievements Today and Enlightenment to China

Abstract

Despite the endemic drought, arid climate and associated limited freshwater resources, as well as difficult geopolitical realities, Israel can provide a reliable supply of high quality water to a rapidly growing population. The achievements of water supply in Israel can be summarized as water technologies (like water transportation and purification, desalination, wastewater treatment, effluent reuse, storm water catchment, control systems, rain enhancement and drip irrigation, etc.), water management and legislation as well as water industry. In view of the national concern regarding the quality and quantity of the water, the skills, technologies and know-how that Israel has accumulated in water supply and irrigation can give us enlightenment that is also presented in this paper.     

On sensitivity analysis: Let’s use it more!

The key factors that influence the population growth rate can be identified with sensitivity analysis. Caswell presented an algorithm based on vector calculus that speeds up, and improves the practicality of the application of the sensitivity analysis, by calculating the derivatives of the explicit elements from the population Leslie matrix. Despite the usefulness of the sensitivity analysis, it is still barely applied to empirical data, partially due to requirements of high quality demographic data and failure of compatibility between time intervals of field data collection and organism’s life stage timing. This can result in the absence of a certain vital rate as a separated element in the population projection matrix, and thus intricacy in obtaining its sensitivity. In this note we call the attention for the applied value of sensitivity analysis, and also we point to a simple formula that is easily implemented in Caswell Matlab algorithm, to calculate the sensitivity of a vital rate that is not explicit as a matrix element.