The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Public Participation and Effective Water Governance at the Local Level: A Case Study from a Small Under-Developed Area in Chile

The concept of participation in rural development has been evolutionary for the past two decades with those involved, such as development agencies and governments, particularly in rural water supply, re-evaluating their active role. The move towards effective community participation has encouraged a shift from the traditional top-down to a bottom-up approach whereby there is a decentralisation of unevenly distributed resources and power to empower a community and allow mobility of ‘people participation’. The Molinos water project is the first large-scale development project of its kind introduced into the village of Molinos in an under-developed area of Chile, where there has been no tradition of people participation. The project objective was to implement a low technology, low budget water treatment plant to the village of Molinos. Various aspects have hindered the continued development of the project including both technical and financial. In terms of people participation, the initial approach used was the top-down approach. There was a failure to fully integrate the community or inform the community in a formal manner about the project and consult them regarding key project issues. This case study illustrates that the lack of comprehensive consultation and the low level of participation of the community on the participatory scale does not achieve much in terms of people-centred benefits. For governance at the local level to be effective, participation should be inclusive and communicative so as to enhance transparency throughout the project lifetime. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Farming dynamics and social capital: A case study in the urban fringe of Mexico City

Urban development has important implications for farmland preservation and natural resource management in local peri-urban communities. Social science research on recent changes in rural landscape of mega-cities tends to be limited to case studies in Latin-American nations. This study analyses the socioecomic dynamics of farming land use and the interactions between multiple cultural variables and the environment. Fieldwork was carried out during the 2002–2003 period in rural livelihoods of the five high mountain towns of south Mexico City. Data obtained from participatory survey and ethnographic techniques were integrated to assess changes in rural landscape and resource management and how urbanization, deforestation and market oriented agricultural production result in different livelihoods within a similar urban fringe context. The dynamic of mixture of urban and rural landscapes is based on farm productivity and social capital factors. The study concludes that policy support for regional agricultural production systems through enhancing ecosystems services, environmental protection and economic development is needed for sustainable development of local communities. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

水权市场研究述评与中国特色水权市场研究展望

水权水市场改革是我国水资源管理改革的重要内容,也是当前我国资源环境研究领域的热点之一。我国水权市场尚未发育完成,水权交易还未成体系,更缺乏水权交易的制度体系和技术支撑。国内外的研究表明,有效运作的水权市场,需要具备产权明晰、计量监测技术支撑、监管制度完善等多方面的条件,同时也会受到交易成本、第三方效应、社会文化等多方面的影响;从已有的水权交易模型来看,国内学者基本上是沿用了西方发展起来的水权交易模型,很少考虑中国国情因素。总体来看,国内水权水市场研究目前存在三个方面的主要缺陷。第一,在水权市场发展的规律研究方面,过于强调市场的作用和市场制度本身,对水权市场运作的内在机制认识不足;第二,在水权市场的国际经验借鉴方面,过于强调个别国家的"先进经验",对水权市场发展的教训和伴随的问题认识不足;第三,在水权交易和市场制度建设过程中,过于强调理想意义上的自由市场模式,对国情条件的制约和中国特色的因素认识不足。当前亟需开展更为深入的研究,系统探索中国国情因素对水权市场构建的影响,重点揭示中国特色的水权市场制度体系特征,提出中国情境下的水权交易模式、交易规则、水权监管制度以及与国情条件相适应的水价政策。通过理论集成和知识创新,增进对中国特色水权市场制度的理解,为水资源管理体制改革和水资源的可持续利用提供研究支撑。     

中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异及其格局演变:1995—2014

利用"自下而上"法核算1995—2014年中国大陆30个省(市、区)旅游业碳生产率,采用标准差、变异系数等指标衡量旅游业碳生产率区域差异,并通过空间自相关分析探讨中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异格局演变特征。结果表明:1995—2014年中国旅游业碳生产率总体呈增长趋势,但增长幅度不大,其年均增长率为2.07%,旅游业碳生产率具体数值由1995年的1.120 1万元/t增长至2014年的1.653 0万元/t;旅游业碳生产率区域差异明显,但区域绝对差异和区域相对差异均逐步缩小;旅游业碳生产率空间分布不均,总体呈东高西低的空间格局;旅游业碳生产率的空间分布存在显著正空间自相关性,以及局部的不连续性;旅游业高碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在华北地区,以北京、天津、河北为主要代表;旅游业低碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在西北地区,以新疆、青海和陕西为主要代表;中国旅游业碳生产率整体水平较低,多数省区位于旅游业低碳生产率行列,研究期内旅游业低碳生产率的区域重心逐渐由西部向中部转移。基于上述结论,本文提出针对性建议:政府应制定低碳旅游相关的系列标准规范、行动方案以及保障性政策等,同时应加大对先进低碳技术和低碳设备的引进与推广;各省区应秉持低碳发展理念并将其融入目的地开发与管理之中;旅游企业应积极利用新能源、新材料和新技术,研发低碳旅游系列产品与服务;加大宣传生态环保理念,引导旅游者树立低碳旅游意识,优先选择低碳旅游景区和低碳出行方式,自觉抵制高碳排旅游活动。     

老年人旅游消费与影响因素关联度分析——基于京津冀地区2006-2013年面板数据

我国现阶段65岁以上老年人享有较好的社会保障体系,具有一定的物质基础和精神需求,对出行旅游具有强烈的欲望.在我国人口老龄化趋势逐渐加重的驱使下,刺激老年人出行旅游能够极大的促进消费,带动内需增长.为了科学制定拉动老年人旅游的政策措施,本文从《中国统计年鉴》(2006-2013年)中选取65岁以上人口比、老年抚养比、城镇人口比重、城镇基本养老保险基金支出、文盲人口占15岁及以上人口、接受高等教育人数、以及地区最终消费支出作为主要的比较指标;从《中国旅游统计年鉴》(2006-2013年)中选取65岁以上旅游人数比与65岁以上人口旅游消费支出作为主要参考指标,分别对相关数据进行了灰色关联分析.分析结果显示,选取的比较指标与参考指标之间呈现了中等以上强度的关联性,关联度均在0.6以上,65岁以上人口、老年抚养比、城镇人口比重相对2个参考指标关联度最强,城镇人口数量与受教育情况业是影响65岁以上旅游人数的重要因素,分析结论可以作为国家和地方政府在制定养老产业相关政策时的重要参考.本研究的最后,提出了完善社会福利保障体系和旅游业法律法规,提高养老保险水平,保障老年人旅游市场安全及制定差异化价格战略等措施.     

遗产廊道旅游价值评价体系构建及其应用研究——以古运河江苏段为例

遗产廊道是目前保护线性文化遗产的一种新趋势。我国拥有丰富的线性文化遗产，准确地评价其旅游价值，对于有效保护和合理开发利用文化遗产资源，具有重要意义。本文基于遗产廊道自身的特殊性和整体性，尝试从廊道资源条件、区域社会条件、廊道生境条件和旅游保障条件及发展潜力等方面建立遗产廊道旅游价值评价指标体系，旨在从廊道整体效应出发评价其旅游价值。并运用层次分析法（AHP）和德尔非法（Delphi）相结合的方法，确定指标体系各因子的权重。并以古运河江苏段为例进行实证研究。评价结果与古运河江苏段实际情况基本吻合，说明本文构建的评价指标体系具有一定的科学性和可信度。     

Study on the Comprehensive Tourism Development Pattern in Periphery Minority Area: A Case Study of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province,China

Abstract

The paper took the human-land relations as a basic point, and the theories of tourism industry system and sustainable development as the guidance, with Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (Gannan) as the case study area. From microcosmic and macroscopic viewpoints, the author carried out function orientation and evaluation to the tourism industry development, and research on the comprehensive tourism industry development pattern of Gannan. Results show that the fragile ecological environment and the traditional economic growth pattern have restricted regional sustainable development, and made Gannan to become a representative of the periphery minority areas in Northwest China. Tourism development of Gannan is at the primary phase, with the characteristics of short industry chain and low economic efficiency. It is an inevitable choice to transform the way of regional economic growth and the development pattern of tourism industry from the traditional pattern to the pattern of sustainable development. Simultaneously, Gannan's natural, national and religious culture makes Gannan a broad prospect on the comprehensive tourism development. Gannan should choose the comprehensive tourism industry as its scientific pattern to realize sustainable development, promote harmonious social, economic and ecological development, alleviate the human-land contradictory, and realize dual goals in terms of ecology construction and economical development. For Gannan and the similar areas in China, studies on the sustainable development pattern of tourism have extremely important strategic sense with respect to tourism development and the sustainable development of regional economy.     

Study on the Comprehensive Tourism Development Pattern in Periphery Minority Area： A Case Study of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Gansu Province, China

The paper took the human-land relations as a basic point, and the theories of tourism industry system and sustainable development as the guidance, with Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture （Gannan） as the case study area. From microcosmic and macroscopic viewpoints, the author carded out function orientation and evaluation to the tourism industry development, and research on the comprehensive tourism industry development pattern of Gannan. Results show that the fragile ecological environment and the traditional economic growth pattern have restricted regional sustainable development, and made Gannan to become a representative of the periphery minority areas in Northwest China. Tourism development of Gannan is at the primary phase, with the characteristics of short industry chain and low economic efficiency. It is an inevitable choice to transform the way of regional economic growth and the development pattern of tourism industry from the traditional pattern to the pattern of sustainable development. Simultaneously, Gannan＇s natural, national and religious culture makes Gannan a broad prospect on the comprehensive tourism development. Gannan should choose the comprehensive tourism industry as its scientific pattern to realize sustainable development, promote harmonious social, economic and ecological development, alleviate the human-land contradictory, and realize dual goals in terms of ecology construction and economical development. For Gannan and the similar areas in China, studies on the sustainable development pattern of tourism have extremely important strategic sense with respect to tourism development and the sustainable development of regional economy.     

Connotation and principles of ecological compensation in water source reserve areas based on the theory of externality

Understanding the connotation and principles of ecological compensation in water source reserve areas is the basis and guarantee for establishing and improving the ecological compensation mechanism of water source reserve areas. First, this paper reviews the three stages of ecological compensation research progress. Based on the review, using the theory of externality, the ecological environment system of water source reserve areas is then analyzed. This paper argues that the connotation of ecological compensation in water source reserve areas is a kind of institutional arrangement, which is designed to internalize externalities. Finally, based on the understanding of the connotation of ecological compensation in water source reserve areas, five principles for establishing and improving the ecological compensation mechanism are proposed, including the principle of fairness and justice, the principle of equivalence of equality and responsibility, the principle of flexibility and effectiveness, the principle of “earmark funds, and implementation by law,” and the principle of government compensation supplemented with market compensation.     

西南岩溶区生态安全评价研究 ——以广西为例

西南岩溶区是举世公认的典型的生态环境脆弱系统之一,也是我国典型的极贫困代表区域之一.广西处于西南岩溶地区,岩溶面积为9.8×104km2,占广西土地总面积的41%.本文以广西为例,采用生态足迹的理论和方法来测算广西区域生态安全状况,对1990～2003年广西岩溶生态环境的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏及生态压力指数进行测算分析并提出预测模型.研究结果①广西生态足迹呈不断增加趋势,从1990年的0.601 7 hm2增加到2003年的1.137 8 hm2;②生态承载力呈不断下降趋势,从1990年的0.820 4 hm2减少到2003年的0.653 7 hm2;③生态盈亏从1990年生态盈余的0.218 8 hm2下降到2003年的生态赤字达-0.484 8 hm2,出现严重的生态赤字;④1990～2003年生态足迹压力指数由0.7334增加到1.7406,增长幅度巨大,从临界安全状态到不安全状态.     

地方政府生态环境治理注意力研究——基于30个省市政府工作报告(2006—2015)文本分析

注意力代表着政府决策者对特定事务的关注,注意力的变化是政府决策选择变化的直接原因。环境治理注意力是环境治理进入议程设置,进而出台政策、实施治理的前提。政府工作报告是政府进行资源配置与精力投入的指挥棒,也是"政府将重视什么、哪些领域得到更多投入资源"的通知书和承诺书,它是政府注意力分配或者变化的重要载体。本文收集了30个省市地方政府自2006年到2015年共300份工作报告,通过文本分析方法,试图发现地方政府生态环境治理注意力的变化规律。分析结果呈现:1从时间轴上看,地方政府对于生态环境的注意力强度逐渐增加;2从地域轴上看,东、中、西部政府生态环境注意力差距并不明显,相比而言,中部处于一个稍低的位次;3从生态环境的范畴看,具体领域得到进一步扩展,中央与地方对环境具体事务保持了较高的一致性,注意力的变化与决策环境和中央宏观政策有重要相关关系。尽管在某些时间点,某些地域存在离散点,但总体而言,在中央政府强调经济发展需要与当地环境资源承载能力相协调的大背景下,地方政府将注意力大幅转向民生事务和生态环境。鉴于地方领导人任期以及注意力本身的"易变性",要保持地方政府环境治理注意力的强度和持续性,1增加制度供给,使环境治理成为法治常项;2将环境治理在公共事务治理的排序中前置,将环境治理放在突出位置;3提升环境事件的信息强度,向地方政府传导积极的环境治理压力。     

Characteristics of Rural Labor Emigration in Minority Areas of Honghe, Yunnan and Its Impact on New Socialist Countryside Construction in the 21st Century

China is a country with multinationalities. The political, social, and economic significances of the economic and social development in the minority areas have a very close connection with the modernization of the whole China's politics, society, and economy. The movement of minority rural migrants to the urban areas or to the nonagricultural industries is one of the key issues in the economic and social development in the minority rural areas. The rural population migration in the minority areas was taken as the important research topic, hoping to be of benefit to the deeper understanding of the current migration movement in China.     

Mutual Conversion of Land Use between Urban and Rural Area in the Process of Urbanization: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Urbanization is one of the driving forces for the land use change in type and structure, and its prominent effect is to convert rural land to urban land. This paper takes Shan-dong Province as an example to analyze the current situation of the mutual conversion between the urban and rural areas from the aspects of the structure of land use, the decreasing tendency of the cultivated land, the changes of land use in urban and rural residential areas. It points out that cultivated land is converted to residential area land, industrial and/or mining area land. The relationship between the urban area land and the cultivated land is more direct; meanwhile, the changes of rural residential area lag behind obviously. The decrease of the cultivated land and the decline of soil quality will be the two difficult problems in the process of urbanization.     

A multidisciplinary study on the effects of climate change in the northern Adriatic Sea and the Marche region (central Italy)

An integrated analysis of recent climate change (including atmosphere, sea and land), and social reaction and adaptation, was conducted in central Italy and the northern portion of the Adriatic Sea. The collected environmental data included meteorological, oceanographic, and river gauges stations, covering the time period 1961–2009. Social data included 800 questionnaires and interviews carried out on selected samples of residents, decision-makers, and emergency managers. The trend analysis of air temperature data detailed an overall increase in all seasons, whereas rainfall data showed decrease in winter, spring, and summer, and increase in autumn, influencing river flow changes. Marine data showed a warming of the water column after the year 1990, particularly relevant in the cold season. Surface salinity increased in spring and summer and strongly decreased in autumn and also in winter (due to the spreading over the basin of the increased autumnal river runoff). These changes, combined with anthropogenic effects, appear to influence the northern Adriatic marine environment and ecosystems. Impacts in the coastal areas are also evident inland; the analysis of Aridity index, and potential water deficit, suggests negative impacts in terms of soil deterioration and agricultural productivity, particularly in the area near the coastline. At the same time, the analysis of social data revealed awareness among local residents of these impacts and associated risks connected to climate change. Yet, this awareness is not currently translated into preventive and protective actions; among the main reasons for this delay is also ineffective information exchange among citizens, public administrators, and the scientific community.     

产业资源相对承载力视角下民族地区产业发展与经济增长路径研究

使用1996—2014年我国民族8省区的面板数据,构建产业资源相对承载力模型及产业发展库兹涅茨曲线模型,对区域产业发展、经济增长、产业资源相对承载能力三者之间的关系及其动态变化进行分析。研究发现,我国民族地区三次产业综合资源相对承载力约为32 784.7万人,状态均小于0,呈富裕状态,平均富裕人口约13 817.53万人,平均富裕率高达72.82%。其中第一产业资源相对承载力对区域综合产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为46.18%,第二产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为44.38%,第三产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为9.43%;第三产业资源相对承载力增长速度最快,增长率高达32.68%。产业发展初期,第一产业经济拉动效果最为显著。从产业持续发展与经济增长动态关系来看,第一产业发展呈"倒U型"库兹涅茨曲线关系;第二产业发展呈二次曲线正相关上升部分关系;第三产业发展呈"U型"曲线的关系。基于产业资源相对承载力视角,民族地区产业发展应当遵循如下发展路径:第一产业应当在保证粮食等必要初级产品供给安全的前提下,调整结构,以特色资源为引导,进一步扩大产业特色资源的规模效益;第二产业必须以转变发展方式为主要任务,走集约发展路线,以产业资源承载能力及生态承载力为红线,保持产业适度规模;第三产业发展应当以扩大规模,提高质量,提升产业资源承载能力为主要任务,充分释放产业资源的资本化能力,推动经济发展。     

黄河流域县域经济密度测算及空间分异研究

县域经济是国民经济的基本单元,科学评估县域经济的空间分异、影响因素和形成机理,可以为区域经济分析和区域发展政策制定提供科学决策依据。本文以黄河流域504个县域为研究单元,采用熵权灰色模型、Jenks最佳分类法和Kernel分析等方法,基于人均、地均组成的经济密度综合指数构建经济密度评价指标体系和经济密度综合评价模型,从空间分布特征、空间集聚状态两个维度对2000年、2014年黄河流域县域经济密度的空间分异的特征状态和影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)流域经济密度的空间分异主要受人均密度系统影响,地均密度系统只是强化或减弱人均系统的分异强度。(2)黄河流域东部与中西部之间的经济密度差异明显。东部经济密度水平高,且形成了以郑州、济南为中心的高级别集聚状态,中东部以西安为中心形成了次一级集聚状态,而中西部经济密度整体水平低且仅有少量的弱集聚核心和集聚影响区。(3)流域中西部内部经济空间分异也发生变化。内蒙古、河南的经济密度水平较高,而其他省区的水平相对较弱;流域中西部高水平、中高水平经济密度区域及实力较强的集聚核心和扩展轴带分布在内蒙古中部、河南中部、陕西南部、山西中部,其他省区的集聚核心和扩展轴带较弱。     

Rural women and agrotourism in the context of sustainable rural development: A case study from Turkey

As in many developing countries also in Turkey, agriculture is on the center of rural development and rural women are on the center of agriculture. Although they are main part as a major labor force at every stage of agricultural activity and undertake responsibilities such as domestic task and childcare, women do not profit from social and economic benefits proportionate to the responsibilities they have undertaken.Agrotourism is an alternative activity in the rural development process, which combines agriculture and tourism, improves natural resources, contributes the rural area socially and economically.The aim of this study is to examine the participation conditions of rural women to the agrotourism activities, which is considered as an option in the context of sustainable rural development, and to identify the possible social and economic implications of agrotourism on the rural womens life, after determining the situation and importance of rural women in the agricultural activity. This research was carried out in three villages of Kalecik district of Ankara and data gathered from group meetings and surveys.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.