Australian approaches to coastal vulnerability assessment

The Australian coastline is one of the longest and most diverse of any in the world, and Australian researchers have developed preliminary models of the behaviour of major coastal systems such as beaches and reefs. The Australian population is particularly focused along the coastline, especially in metropolitan centres; however, the population of regional centres along the coast is increasing steadily in response to a phenomenon termed seachange. Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by potential impacts as a result of climate change, as indicated by the successive assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although Australia played a central role in applying a common methodology (CM), developed from IPCC guidelines in the 1990s, and in devising alternative approaches, which were initially trialled at nine sites on the Australian coast, there has not been a nationally co-ordinated approach to assessing the coastal vulnerability of Australia, and such an approach is only emerging now. Instead, there have been a series of different approaches adopted to look at the different parts of the Australian coast, including wetland mapping in northern Australia; geomorphic unit mapping in South Australia; storm surge vulnerability modelling in Queensland; probabilistic approaches to beach erosion in New South Wales; indicative mapping of potential coastal retreat in Tasmania. Additionally, there have been methods proposed by insurers and coastal engineers to meet their requirements. Since 2005, the Australian government has once again seen the need for a national coastal vulnerability assessment, and a series of studies are planned or under way to achieve the aims of a National Climate Change Adaptation Framework.     

Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market

The concept of relative vulnerability allows for comparisons between analogous units in a regional context. It is utilised within tourism studies to consider how climate change might affect demand and perceived attractiveness of destinations relative to their competitors. This paper examines Australian tourists travelling to New Zealand’s ski fields, responding to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) assertion that, “tourist flows from Australia to New Zealand might grow as a result of the relatively poorer snow conditions in Australia” (Hennessy et al. 2007: p 523). This travel flow is not a new phenomenon; however, it is forecast to increase as climate change impacts upon Australia’s natural and man-made snowmaking capacity with implications for the viability of the ski industries in both Australia and New Zealand. The Queenstown Lakes Region (South Island, New Zealand) serves as the field area for this study. The empirical research utilises a qualitative methodology for which in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with New Zealand ski industry representatives and Australian tourists during the southern hemisphere winter season of 2011. Findings suggest that the social context of vulnerability creates difficulty in forecasting the outcomes and behaviours associated with relative vulnerability. While tourism representatives’ focus on snow reliability and availability to conceptualise relative vulnerability, Australian tourists are influenced by a broader range of factors including their own travel experience. This paper demonstrates a clear need to move beyond a focus on snow reliability to consider the broad range of factors that contribute to regional variations in vulnerability. In doing so, it confirms the critical importance of situating relative vulnerability within a social context.     

The relationship between climate and streamflow in the Namoi Basin

The Namoi River Basin (42 000 km²) is located in the Murray-Darling Basin, west of the Great Australian Dividing Range in northeast New South Wales (NSW), and includes some of the most fertile agricultural lands in Australia. One of the environmental concerns for this basin is erosion and its effects on downstream water quality. Models that relate climate, land use, and these concerns require measurements of climate (rainfall and temperature) and streamflow. These measurements were examined as a preliminary to the modelling. The residual mass technique was used to examine the temporal variation of annual rainfalls over the approximately 100 years of available data, and significant spatial variations were found in annual rainfall trends over the catchment. Streamflow was examined at key river gauging stations. The impact of recent large-scale irrigation operations was clearly observed. The impact of changing land use and land management on runoff ratios was examined for eight subcatchments. Temperature variations were examined for the four major towns in the catchment. The duration of the temperature data is too short to make any comments about long-term trends. Significant variations were observed in an east to west direction.     

The South Australian lobster fishery management model

Modelling the rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) fishery in South Australia was the focus of a three-year data gathering program. In collaboration with fishers, a tool for assisting in the sustainable management of the resource was developed. The goal was to test management policies to allow increases in reproductive output while enhancing economic yield. The model's user interface was developed to an ease of use comparable to commercial software for use by fishers in comanagement of the resource. This paper describes the modelling framework, user interface, and results for management strategies under consideration. The framework is comprised of five principle submodels: catch, effort, growth, economics, and population reproduction, with the lobster population divided into 8 mm length classes by sex and spatial cell. The mortality of lobsters occurs by commercial harvest, natural mortality, incidental release mortality, predation inside pots before retrieval, illegal harvesting, and recreational catch. Five categories of management control scenario were simulated: catch quota, effort regulation (as total pot retrievals), size regulations (allowing minimum, maximum, and mid-range slice length protection), and seasonal and area closures. Model outputs imply that size strategies have limited potential compared with effort limitations and quota.     

Integrated and comprehensive estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from land systems

Exchanges of carbon and nitrogen between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems involve a complex set of interactions affected by both natural and management processes. Understanding these processes is important for managing ecosystem productivity and sustainability. Management processes also affect the net outcome of exchanges of greenhouse gases between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. In developing a national carbon accounting system (NCAS) for Australia to account for emissions and removal of greenhouse gases to and from the atmosphere, a carbon:nitrogen mass balance ecosystem model (FullCAM) was developed. The FullCAM model is a hybrid of empirical and process modelling. The approach enables application to a wide range of natural resource management issues, because it is at land-management-relevant spatial and temporal resolution and captures the main process and management drivers. The scenario-prediction capability can be used to determine the emissions consequences of different management activities. Because, in Australia, emissions of greenhouse gases are closely related to the retention of dead organic matter and the availability of nitrogen for plant growth, the carbon and nitrogen cycling as modelled are good indicators of ecosystem productivity and condition. The NCAS also emphasizes the advantages of a comprehensive and integrated approach to developing a continental scale ecosystem-modelling system that has relevance both to estimation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable management of natural resources.     

Prediction of the fate of radioactive material in the South Pacific Ocean using a global high-resolution ocean model

We investigate the release of radioactive contaminants from Moruroa Atoll in a global high-resolution off-line model. The spread of tracer is studied in a series of simulations with varying release depths and time-scales, and into ocean velocity fields corresponding to long-term annual mean, seasonal, and interannually varying scenarios. In the instantaneous surface release scenarios we find that the incorporation of a seasonal cycle greatly influences tracer advection, with maximum concentrations still found within the French Polynesia region after 10 years. In contrast, the maximum trace is located in the southeast Pacific when long-term annual mean fields are used. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal cycle in models of pollution dispersion on large scales. We further find that during an El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event reduced currents in the region of Moruroa Atoll result in increased concentrations of radioactive material in French Polynesia, as direct flushing from the source is reduced. In terms of the sensitivity to tracer release time-rates, we find that a gradual input results in maximum concentrations in the near vicinity of French Polynesia. This contrasts the instantaneous-release scenarios, which see maximum concentrations and tracer spread across much of the South Pacific Ocean. For example, in as little as seven years radioactive contamination can reach the east coast of Australia diluted by only a factor of 1,000 of the initial concentration. A comparison of results is made with previous studies. Overall, we find much higher concentrations of radionuclides in the South Pacific than has previously been predicted using coarser-resolution models.     

Environmental exposure to organophosphorus and pyrethroid pesticides in South Australian preschool children: A cross sectional study

Organophosphorus (OP) and pyrethroid (PYR) compounds are the most widely used insecticides. OPs and PYRs are developmental neurotoxicants. Understanding the extent of exposure in the general population and especially in young children is important for the development of public health policy on regulation and use of these chemicals. Presented here are the results of the first investigation into the extent of environmental exposure to neurotoxic insecticides in preschool children in South Australia (SA).Children were enrolled from different areas of SA and assigned into urban, periurban and rural groups according to their residential address. Residential proximity to agricultural activity, parental occupational contact to insecticides and use of insecticides within the household were investigated as potential indirect measures of exposure. We used liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry to measure the following metabolites of OPs and PYRs in urine samples as direct indicators of exposure: dialkylphosphates, p-nitrophenol, 3-methyl-4-nitrophenol, 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol, cis- and trans-3-(2,2-dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethyl-cyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid, cis-3-(2,2-dibromovinyl)-2,2-dimethyl-cyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid, 2-methyl-3phenylbenzoic acid and 3-phenoxybenzoic acid. Results were analysed to assess factors affecting the risk and level of exposure. Results were also compared to the published data in similar age groups from US and German studies.The results of this study demonstrate that there was widespread chronic exposure to OPs and and PYRs in SA children. OP metabolites were detected more commonly than PYR. Exposure to more than one chemical and contemporaneous exposure to chemicals from both OP and PYR groups was common in the study population. There were some differences in risks and levels of exposure between the study groups. Exposure to some restricted use of chemicals, for example, fenitrothion, was higher in periurban and rural children. There was no difference among the study groups in exposure to chlorpyrifos, used commonly in agriculture and in domestic settings and most frequently found OP pesticide in food in Australia. South Australian children appear to have higher levels of exposure compared their peers in US and Germany.     

The net ecosystem carbon exchange of human-modified environments in the Australian Capital Region

As part of a larger study to quantify and map ecosystem services in southeast Australia, we estimated carbon stored in biomass and soils and the net ecosystem carbon exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere in the Australian Capital Region (ACR). Our aim was to understand and quantify how different human-modified landscapes provide an essential ecosystem service: the exchange and storage of carbon in the landscape. Using a remote sensing based modelling methodology, we obtained values of Net Primary Productivity (NPP), total carbon in soil and biomass and carbon turnover from meteorological and terrain inputs and vegetation attributes. We obtained a set of maps of NPP, total carbon (C) storage and C-turnover for the ACR. We superimposed a land use/cover map to assign the uptake, storage and release of carbon to different land use/cover types. Our results support the hypothesis that human-intensive land uses significantly affect the ability of terrestrial ecosystems to provide an important ecosystem service in the form of carbon storage.     

Did socio-ecological factors drive the spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)?

BackgroundPandemic influenza A (H1N1) has a significant public health impact. This study aimed to examine the effect of socio-ecological factors on the transmission of H1N1 in Brisbane, Australia.MethodologyWe obtained data from Queensland Health on numbers of laboratory-confirmed daily H1N1 in Brisbane by statistical local areas (SLA) in 2009. Data on weather and socio-economic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between variation of H1N1 and independent factors and to determine its spatiotemporal patterns.ResultsOur results show that average increase in weekly H1N1 cases were 45.04% (95% credible interval (CrI): 42.63–47.43%) and 23.20% (95% CrI: 16.10–32.67%), for a 1 °C decrease in average weekly maximum temperature at a lag of one week and a 10 mm decrease in average weekly rainfall at a lag of one week, respectively. An interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on H1N1 incidence was found (changes: 0.71%; 95% CrI: 0.48–0.98%). The auto-regression term was significantly associated with H1N1 transmission (changes: 2.5%; 95% CrI: 1.39–3.72). No significant association between socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA) and H1N1 was observed at SLA level.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that average weekly temperature at lag of one week and rainfall at lag of one week were substantially associated with H1N1 incidence at a SLA level. The ecological factors seemed to have played an important role in H1N1 transmission cycles in Brisbane, Australia.     

Perceptions of climate change risk in four disaster-impacted rural Australian towns

Australia, a country which has regularly experienced various natural disasters, is now set to face more intense and frequent disasters in the twenty-first century as a result of climate change. Prior research indicates that in Australia, the perceived risks of climate change are mixed and becoming less prevalent across rural and urban locations, posing a threat to the public’s adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Research was conducted in four disaster-impacted rural Australian towns to investigate whether prior disaster experience, trust in climate change risk communications and specific location predicted climate change risk perceptions. Four case study sites were chosen exemplifying communities impacted by different types of disaster events. The case study towns were Beechworth (wildfire, 2009) and Bendigo (drought, 2002–2008) in Victoria; Ingham (flood, 2009) and Innisfail (cyclone, 2006) in Queensland. Structural equation modelling analyses of surveys returned by a sample of 1,008 householders across the four towns showed that prior disaster experience had no impact upon climate change risk perceptions. Instead climate change risk perceptions were predicted by trust in climate change communications, climate change knowledge and the geographical location of the sample, suggesting the need for targeted, place-specific contextual communication interventions that consider the needs and socioeconomic characteristics of the community in question.     

Airborne reduced nitrogen: ammonia emissions from agriculture and other sources

Ammonia is a basic gas and one of the most abundant nitrogen-containing compounds in the atmosphere. When emitted, ammonia reacts with oxides of nitrogen and sulfur to form particles, typically in the fine particle size range. Roughly half of the PM(2.5) mass in eastern United States is ammonium sulfate, according to the US EPA. Results from recent studies of PM(2.5) show that these fine particles are typically deposited deep in the lungs and may lead to increased morbidity and/or mortality. Also, these particles are in the size range that will degrade visibility. Ammonia emission inventories are usually constructed by multiplying an activity level by an experimentally determined emission factor for each source category. Typical sources of ammonia include livestock, fertilizer, soils, forest fires and slash burning, industry, vehicles, the oceans, humans, pets, wild animals, and waste disposal and recycling activities. Livestock is the largest source category in the United States, with waste from livestock responsible for about 3x10(9) kg of ammonia in 1995. Volatilization of ammonia from livestock waste is dependent on many parameters, and thus emission factors are difficult to predict. Despite a seasonal variation in these values, the emission factors for general livestock categories are usually annually averaged in current inventories. Activity levels for livestock are from the USDA Census of Agriculture, which does not give information about animal raising practices such as housing types and grazing times, waste handling systems, and approximate animal slurry spreading times or methods. Ammonia emissions in the United States in 1995 from sources other than livestock are much lower; for example, annual emissions are roughly 8x10(8) kg from fertilizer, 7x10(7) kg from industry, 5x10(7) kg from vehicles and 1x10(8) kg from humans. There is considerable uncertainty in the emissions from soil and vegetation, although this category may also be significant. Recommendations for future directions in ammonia research include designing experiments to improve emission factors and their resolution in all significant source categories, developing mass balance models, and refining of the livestock activity level data by eliciting judgment from experts in this field.     

Planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk: a case study from the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia

Australian coastal areas have been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change, with major projected impacts including sea level rise, extreme weather events, increased erosion, and a change in coastal processes and wave patterns. Such impacts would cause coastal settlements and ecosystems to face increasingly uncertain conditions. In response to increased risk, effective coastal management at local and regional scales is needed, with governing bodies providing significant leadership. This research explores the challenges of applying effective adaptation responses to projected climate change in vulnerable coastal systems on the South Coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia. In particular, the option of planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk is critically examined, with the incorporation of learning from Byron Bay, NSW. A mixed methods approach was undertaken by integrating documentary interrogation with the analysis of interview responses from key coastal managers. It was determined that despite the increase in adaptation planning and development of management strategy options to manage sea level rise on the Fleurieu Peninsula, there is a lack of implementation of adaptation responses. In addition, planning seems to focus largely on the implications of sea level rise on infrastructure, often overlooking other risks and possible ecological impacts. Inconsistencies in governance are reflected at all levels, indicating a need for comprehensive improvements to ensure the incorporation of appropriate risk responses into planning decisions.     

Age as a determinant of phosphate flame retardant exposure of the Australian population and identification of novel urinary PFR metabolites

The demand for alternative flame retardant materials such as phosphate flame retardants and plasticizers (PFRs) is increasing, although little is known of their possible effects on human health and development. To date, no information on the exposure of children or general Australian population to PFRs is available. The objectives of this study were to characterize the average levels and age-related patterns of PFR metabolites in urine in the general Australian population and to identify novel hydroxylated PFR metabolites in urine. Surplus pathology urine samples from Queensland, Australia were stratified and pooled by age and sex (3224 individuals aged 0 to 75 years into 95 pools) according to two different pooling strategies at two different time periods. Samples were analyzed by solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry following enzymatic treatment. Nine PFR metabolites were measured in the Australian population, including the first report of a hydroxylated metabolite of TCIPP (BCIPHIPP). Diphenyl phosphate (DPHP), BCIPHIPP and bis(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BDCIPP) were detected in > 95% of samples. DPHP, a metabolite of aryl-PFRs, was found in several samples at levels which were one order of magnitude higher than previously reported (up to 730 ng/mL). Weighted linear regression revealed a significant negative association between log-normalized BDCIPP and DPHP levels and age (p < 0.001). Significantly greater levels of BDCIPP and DPHP were found in children's urine compared with adults, suggesting higher exposure to PFRs in young children. BCIPHIPP was identified for inclusion in future PFR biomonitoring studies.     

Demographic structure of Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus Pall.) population in central Yakutia

The dynamics of the sex and age structure of Siberian roe deer in central Yakutia has been analyzed over the period from 1998 to 2011. In the snowy winter of 2004, mass migration and high mortality of the animals were recorded. The following shift of the adult sex ratio in favor of females and increase in the proportion of calves provided for rapid population recovery. Climate warming, accompanied by increase in the amount of snow, has impaired living conditions for Siberian roe deer. Realization of the species reproductive potential is restrained by natural and anthropogenic elimination factors, and prospects for future population growth are poor.     

Australia and Russia: How do their environmental policy processes differ?

This paper focuses on comparative review and analysis of the systems of environmental protection, national environmental strategies and fundamentals of environmental legislation in Australia and the Russian Federation. These countries have many socioeconomic similarities, such as low population densities and richness in natural resources which are largely exported. The main disparity between Australia and Russia is in the types of economy. This paper ‘continues’ the sequence of recent scholarly publications on comparison of various features of environmental policies in the countries from all over the world. Comparative analysis in this research has been based on examination of scholarly publications, legislation, government documents, mass media sources and NGO responses. The analysis has revealed a number of differences including top-down implementation of policies in Russia whereas in Australia, each State (Territory) implements policies with significant independence from the Commonwealth Government. At the same time, similarities between the countries have been identified: for example, in deficits in the budget of local environmental authorities and in the presence of contradictions in legislation at national and regional levels of government. Suggestions resulting from this analysis include further integration of sustainable development strategies at all levels of Australian government to encourage further protection of the environment and, for Russia, creating a separate Ministry of Environmental Protection. These approaches should assist facilitation of sustainable development for both nations. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

The challenge of adapting centralised electricity systems: peak demand and maladaptation in South East Queensland,Australia

South East Queensland’s (SEQ’s) centralised electricity system is under great pressure to adapt. Climate change is converging with socio-economic, demographic and technological changes to create a ‘perfect storm’ for the region’s electricity system. Distribution networks are particularly affected, with these factors contributing to tremendous peak demand growth, about double the rate of growth in average demand in recent years. This paper reviews how Australia’s electricity system is adapting to multiple drivers of peak electricity demand. We use socio-technical transitions theory to understand the temporal interconnected social and technical dimensions of adaptation in this setting. Specifically, we present an historical narrative of the emergence of centralisation in Australia and outline the peak demand problem in SEQ and review adaptation options from the international literature. We also analyse the interactions between key social groups and their adaptation responses over the past decade. Our analysis shows that adaptation has become a contested process between supply-chain actors and end-users, each with different economic objectives, adaptation needs and capacities. The resulting adaptation dynamic that is emerging shows worrying signs of maladaptation. Implications for market governance and urban policy and research are discussed.     

长江源区夏季径流量变化及其与高原夏季风和南亚夏季风的关系

基于长江源区直门达水文站1957～2016年夏季径流量实测资料、1957～2016年的青藏高原夏季风指数及南亚夏季风指数等资料，利用小波分析、突变检验、滑动相关系数等方法分析了长江源区夏季径流量的变化特征及与高原夏季风和南亚夏季风的关系。研究发现：近60年长江源区夏季平均流量呈增加趋势，在1957～1997年夏季平均流量整体偏少，1998～2016年流量开始增多；长江源区夏季平均流量在1995年前后发生了一次由减少趋势转为增多趋势的显著突变。长江源区夏季平均流量在年际变化上与高原夏季风和南亚夏季风存在显著的正、负相关关系，并且高原夏季风和南亚夏季风存在显著的负相关关系。高原夏季风和南亚夏季风通过大气环流变化来影响源区夏季降水，进而影响其径流。因此对高原夏季风以及南亚夏季风的研究可为预测长江源区流域内水文过程以及水资源的变化提供一定的科学参考。     

Foreign,Domestic, and Cultural Factors in Climate Change Reporting: Swedish Media’s Coverage of Wildfires in Three Continents

This study examines domestic media’s coverage of foreign wildfires from a climate change perspective. It explores Swedish newspapers’ coverage of wildfires in Australia, the Mediterranean region, and the USA during a three-year period (February 2013–March 2016), focusing on how and to what extent climate change is viewed as an underlying cause. A central result is that climate change is mentioned far more often in the case of Australian wildfires than of fires in the other two regions. Another finding is that the climate change issue became more prominent after a severe domestic wildfire in 2014. These observations are also examined qualitatively through a combined frame and discourse study where the importance of foreign news values, the use of foreign sources, cultural proximity/distance, and domestication procedures are analysed. In conclusion, foreign, domestic, and cultural factors in climate change reporting in relation to extreme events are further discussed.     

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of ?1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the ‘most’ appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.