The role of environmental and fisheries multi-controls in white seabream (Diplodus sargus) artisanal fisheries in Portuguese coast

Evaluating the effects of fishing and environmental factors on fish populations are fundamental tenets of fisheries science. In this study, we assess associations between environmental variables (sea surface temperature; North Atlantic Oscillation index; upwelling; wind magnitude; westerly winds; northerly winds; river discharge) and fishing variables (fishing effort) in Diplodus sagus catch rates accounting for regional analyses (northwest coast; southwest coast and Algarve—Algarve south coast). Different time series models for data fitting (multi-model approach) were used. The models were lagged, according to species fishing recruitment age based on the hypothesis that fisheries catches depend on larvae recruitment and survivorship. D. sargus catch rates across areas were unrelated to fishing effort but correlated to environmental variables, with seasonal events explaining much of the variability in trends. On the northwestern coast, the catch rates were mainly set by sea surface temperature (SST) and wind magnitude; however, southwestern coast catch rates were set by NAO winter. On the south coast, only one statistical model (SST, upwelling and westerly winds) associated spring conditions with D. sargus catch rates. The multi-model approach revealed autumn, winter and spring seasonal effects to be related with northwest, southwest and Algarve coastal catch rates, respectively, indicating a possible coastal longitudinal gradient related with given periods of spawning and larval availability. The metadata analysis yielded different results from the regional analyses. In summary, marine resource management should take regional environment characteristics and variability into account when determining sustainable catch rates in given areas for species with high habitat site fidelity.     

Teleconnections,midlatitude cyclones and Aegean Sea turbulent heat flux variability on daily through decadal time scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958–2001 and identify four distinct “cyclone states,” corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc) and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deepwater formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern, showing that the area of influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.     

Low-frequency variability of storms in the northern Black Sea and associated processes in the ocean–atmosphere system

Monthly anomalies of stormy wind–wave heights and return periods are evaluated using secular routine observations in the coastal zone of the northern Black Sea. It is shown that wind–wave anomalies in this region are characterized by high-amplitude quasi-periodical variability with typical timescale of about 50 years. This timescale is determined by temporal variability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system and coincides with periodicity of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Atmospheric re-analysis data show that cyclonic activity over the Black Sea basin intensifies when North Atlantic is relatively cold and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are more frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region. This leads to generation of more frequent Black Sea storm events and enhanced recurrence of extreme waves and results in profound (and mostly negative) environmental consequences. When North Atlantic is relatively warm and meridional forms of atmospheric circulation are less frequent in the North Atlantic-Eurasian region, environmental conditions in the Black Sea region are calmer. Thus, statistics of dangerous events can be wrongly estimated even if relatively long-term (~30 years) time series are considered and interdecadal variability of wind–wave anomalies must be taken into account when the risk assessment is accomplished.     

Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007

This study aims mostly at understanding seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal. For this purpose, selected precipitation indices that mainly focus on extremes were calculated at the seasonal scale for daily data recorded in the period 1941–2007 at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area. These indices were explored for trends at the local and regional levels. The results show that there are marked changes in precipitation indices at the seasonal scale. Trends in spring and autumn precipitation have opposite signals. In spring, statistically significant drying trends are found together with a reduction in extremes. In autumn, wetting trends are detected for all indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5 % level. In addition, the relationship between seasonal extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric large-scale modes of low-frequency variability is analysed by means of a seasonal correlation analysis. Four modes of low-frequency variability are explored. Results confirm that, over mainland Portugal, the North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in any season and the mode of variability that has the greatest influence on precipitation extremes in the area, particularly in the winter and autumn.     

Spatial variability of precipitation in Spain

The spatial variability of annual and seasonal precipitation in the conterminous land of Spain has been evaluated by using correlation decay distance analysis (CDD). The CDD analysis essentially explores how the correlation between neighbouring stations varies according to distance. We analysed CDD independently for the decades 1956–1965, 1966–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1995, and 1996–2005 using only those stations with no missing values for each decade. To this end, 972, 1,174, 1,242, 773 and 695 complete series were used for each decade, respectively. In particular, for each station and decade, we calculated the threshold distance at which the common variance between target (i) and neighbour series is higher than 50 % (r ²  = 0.5) to evaluate whether current density of the climate data set captures the spatial variability of precipitation within the study area. Results indicate that, at an annual scale, neighbouring stations with 50 % of common variance are restricted on average to about 105 km, but this distance can vary from 28 to 251 km within the study area. The lowest variability is located to the SW and in winter, while the higher spatial variability is found to the north, in the Cantabrian area, and to the east, in the Mediterranean and Pyrenees, during summer. Our results suggest that current density of climate stations (those operating in 2005) is good enough to study precipitation variability at an annual scale for winter, spring and autumn, but not enough for summer.     

中国春季降水与南印度洋偶极子的关系研究

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局海温资料和1951~2010年中国160站月降水量资料，分析了前期冬季（12~2月）印度洋海表温度与中国160站春季降水的关系及其影响机制。研究表明：冬季印度洋海温异常的空间模态主要有两种：符号一致的单极和东、西符号相反的南印度偶极。将第2模态的时间系数定义为南印度洋偶极子指数。该指数与中国次年春季降水关系较好，并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行机制分析，发现主要南印度洋偶极子通过以下途径影响中国春季降水：中高纬，SIOD的影响主要引起低纬度的海温及对流异常，通过中低纬度间的相互作用，在中高纬产生较强的遥响应，从而影响同期冬季欧亚大陆的环流变化，这种扰动在西风气流的作用下引起后期春季北太平洋地区对流活动异常，通过中低纬度间的相互作用，加强中高纬地区的遥响应，表现为欧亚大陆EUP波列；低纬，SIOD的影响主要引起南海-海洋性大陆的海温及对流异常，引发经向环流异常，导致黄河至长江中下游地区垂直运动异常和气流辐合异常     

Characterizing heat stress on livestock using the temperature humidity index (THI)—prospects for a warmer Caribbean

There is an urgent need to mitigate climate change-induced heat stress in livestock and poultry in the Caribbean, given the deleterious effects it has on food and nutrition security. The temperature humidity index (THI) was used to assess the potential for heat stress on four types of livestock and poultry (broiler and layer chickens, pigs and ruminants) for three different agro-ecological locations in Jamaica. The THI was formulated specifically to each livestock type and was examined for 2001–2012 for seasonal and annual patterns of variability. Differences in THI were observed between summer (July to September) and winter (December to February) with some moderation due to agro-ecological location. Our results suggest that animals in ambient field conditions in Jamaica may already be experiencing considerable periods of heat stress even during the relatively cooler northern hemisphere winter months. Future patterns of heat stress relative to a 1961–1990 baseline were derived from a regional climate model when mean global surface air temperature is 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.5 °C, marked increases were noted in THI and almost persistent year-round heat stress is projected for Caribbean livestock. Conditions will be exacerbated at the higher global warming states. Possible response strategies such as cooling technologies are discussed.     

Significant rainfall decreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean (1950–2000)

This paper aims at identifying the link between significant rainfall decreases (1950–2000) in the Mediterranean basin and the atmospheric circulation at the 500 hPa level. The months and seasons of the subregions with significant rainfall decrease during this period have been identified previously (Norrant and Douguédroit, Theor Appl Climatol 83(1–4):89–106, 2006): October in the Mediterranean Iberia, March in the Atlantic Iberia, January and winter in Greece, and winter in the Near East. Canonical Correlation Analyses based on the monthly and daily data records from 62 rainfall stations and 138 grid points at the 500 hPa level over a Euro-Atlantic window were first calculated to define the TeleConnection Patterns explaining significant regional rainfall decreases. Then, 500 hPa level weather types (ZWTs) of the rainy days with important or little rainfall associated with each Teleconnection Pattern were identified in each subregion. Rainfall-causing disturbances from the Atlantic reach Iberia directly; some of them are regenerated if they reach the Mediterranean. Other disturbances are generated locally near Greece and the Near East (Meteorological Office in Weather in the Mediterranean I: general meteorology, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, London, 1962). The relationship between significant rainfall decreases and the corresponding 500 hPa level appears to be a nonlinear phenomenon. In all of the studied subregions, a break during the 1970s separates two subperiods differing significantly from each other. Rainfall decrease is due to the higher frequency of important rainfall ZWTs over low rainfall ZWTs, during the first period, which the opposite is true during the second period. Such an inversion could be partially linked with the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation-positive phase during the last quarter of the twentieth century.     

Trends in landings of fish species potentially affected by climate change in Portuguese fisheries

Fisheries are an important source of food, with a high economic value and social significance. The present worrying situation of the world fisheries is the result of the interaction between different factors (e.g. climatic variations, natural oscillations, technological innovation), but the greatest challenges are overfishing and climate change. The species richness of the Portuguese coast is generally higher than that found in northern Europe and similar to that of the Mediterranean, since many species have their southern or northern distribution limits along the Portuguese coast. The zoogeographic importance of this latitudinal area has long been recognized, representing the transition between north-eastern Atlantic warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions, which makes the Portuguese coast an area of great sensitivity to the detection of climate change. Official landing data for commercial species that have the Portuguese coast as their distribution limit were analysed together with sea surface temperature for the period of 1927–2011. In general, landings of species with affinity for temperate waters presented a decreasing trend, whereas species with affinity for subtropical/tropical waters showed an increasing trend. These variations were associated with variation in temperature: lower landings of temperate species occurred mainly in warm years, whereas landings of subtropical/tropical species presented an opposite trend, with higher landings in warm years. Preparing for the impacts of climate change is crucial for the sustainability of fisheries. Management should take into consideration information about environmental factors that affect species distribution and abundance.     

长江口口门区潮下带水域鱼类群落组成的季节变化

根据2006～2007年对长江口口门区潮下带鱼类的监测数据，分析了该水域鱼类群落组成的季节变化特征。结果表明：本次调查采获鱼类42种，隶属21科。生态类群以海洋鱼类种类最多（27种），其次为河口定居种（10种），而淡水鱼类、溯河产卵洄游鱼类和降海产卵洄游鱼类种类数很低。S1站点和S2站点类似，均以棘头梅童鱼（Collichthys lucidus）、刀鲚（Coilia ectenes）、龙头鱼（Harpodon nehereus）为优势种。两站点鱼类群落在空间上无显著差异，而时间上均有明显的季节变化，冬季和初春的样品聚为一组（Ⅰ组），夏、秋季的样品聚为一组（Ⅱ组）。通过SIMPER分析可知，两组间的平均相异性较高，达7303，共有17种鱼类对组间的贡献超过90%，如日本鳗鲡（Anguilla japonica）、棘头梅童鱼、矛尾虾虎鱼（Chaeturichthys stigmatias）、刀鲚、焦氏舌鳎（Cynoglossus joyneri）、龙头鱼等。     

长江常熟江段近岸小型鱼类群落结构及多样性探析

2009年3月～2010年2月,利用密目插网对长江常熟江段小型鱼类进行了连续监测，首次对该江段的小型鱼类群落组成、优势种组成及生物多样性进行了剖析。结果表明：该江段共有小型鱼类24种，隶属于5目7科，其中鲤形目最多。根据〖WTBX〗IRI〖WTBZ〗指数分析，贝氏〖FK（W1。1〗〖PS餐鱼1.eps〗〖FK）〗、刀鲚、窄体舌鳎、蛇鮈和光泽黄颡鱼为优势种，共占总数量的83.44%，占总重量的8202%；贝氏〖FK（W1。1〗〖PS餐鱼1.eps〗〖FK）〗和窄体舌鳎在各个季节中均为优势种，刀鲚在春、夏、秋3季为优势种。基于渔获数量的分析结果显示，常熟江段各月多样性特征值范围为：Shannon Wiener指数（H’） 118～176, Margalef指数（R）087 ～207,Pielou指数（J’）048～083,McNaughton指数(Dn) 057～086。Margalef指数和McNaughton指数春季最高，冬季最低；Shannon Wiener指数和Pielou指数冬季最高，夏季最低。最后探讨了影响该江段小型鱼类群落结构的各种因素，提出了合理开发和保护小型渔业资源的建议     

Hydrologic response to climate change and human activities in a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China

It is essential to investigate hydrologic responses to climate change and human activities across different physiographic regions so as to formulate sound strategies for water resource management. Mann–Kendall, wavelet and geospatial analyses were coupled in this study, associated with ENSO indicators, flashiness index and baseflow index, in order to explore the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change and human activities in the Jiulong River Basin (JRB), a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China. The results showed that the average annual precipitation presented an increasing trend (Z = 2.263, p = 0.024) and that this tendency has become weaker from estuary to inland in the JRB over the past 50 years. The annual frequency of rainstorm events increased from 3.4 to 5.2 days in the estuary and from 5.1 to 5.6 days in the West River, whereas it decreased from 6.0 to 5.5 days in the North River from 1954 to 2010. The 10-year average streamflow during 2001–2010 in the North River and West River decreased by 9.2 and 6.7 %, respectively, compared to the average annual streamflow during 1967–2000. Annual fluctuations were the most representative signals in streamflow variability for the North River and West River over the period 1967–2010. Human activities including dam construction, land change and socioeconomic development posed increasing influences on hydrologic conditions in the JRB. Seasonal variability of streamflow and sediment discharge changed significantly between the two periods divided by the jumping point (1992), identified when dams were constructed extensively in the North River and West River. This research provided important insights into the hydrologic consequences of climate change and human activities in a subtropical coastal watershed of southeast China.     

洞庭湖通江水道鱼类资源周年动态及其洄游特征研究

为了解洞庭湖通江水道鱼类资源的周年动态及其洄游特征,2017年5月～2018年6月,对洞庭湖通江水道的仔鱼和幼鱼、成鱼进行了逐月调查。(1)共采集仔鱼19种,数量以■(Hemiculter leucisculus)最多(占总数的76. 6%),其次为子陵吻虾虎鱼(Rhinogobius giurinus)(占8. 8%)和似鳊(Pseudobrama simoni)(占4. 3%);仔鱼主要出现在4～9月,密度以6月最高(848. 8 Ind./1 000 m~3)。(2)采集幼鱼、成鱼42种,数量以短颌鲚(Coilia brachygnathus)(占总数的30. 3%)最多,其次为贝氏■(Hemiculter bleekeri)(占15. 3%)和■(占12. 2%);幼鱼、成鱼丰度以8月最高(为729尾/船/日)。(3) 4～7月,江湖洄游型鱼类的运动指数在0. 1～0. 7之间,呈现入湖趋势; 9～次年3月,江湖洄游型鱼类的运动指数在-0. 4～-0. 1之间,呈现出湖趋势;径流量是幼鱼、成鱼出、入湖的主要驱动因子。     

崇明北滩鱼类群落生物多样性初探

对1994~2003年崇明北滩鱼类群落进行了研究,用多种指数对该群落生物多样性进行了描述。该群落共有鱼类33种,分别隶属于10目19科29属。生态类型为江海洄游鱼类、河口鱼类和海水鱼类,小型鱼类占绝对优势。群落优势种为凤鲚、棘头梅童鱼和小黄鱼。多样性特征值年间平均指标为：Margalef指数0.84,Wilhm改进指数1.51,Pielou指数0.63,McNaughton指数0.67。崇明北滩鱼类群落经济鱼类趋于小型化,生物多样性呈下降趋势。水环境污染及工程建设的不利影响应得到重视,无选择性网具的使用应受到严格控制。     

Economic feasibility of autonomous hybrid wind–diesel power systems for residential loads in hot regions: a step to mitigate the implications of fossil fuel depletion

Today, energy occupies a pivotal position around which all socio-economic activities revolve. No energy means no life, and supply of energy in a cheap, plentiful, long-sustainable and environmentally safe form is a boon for everyone. In the light of rising cost of oil and fears of its exhaustion coupled with increased pollution, the governments worldwide are deliberating and making huge strides to promote renewable energy sources such as wind. Integration of wind machines with the diesel plants is pursued widely to reduce dependence on fossil-fuel-produced energy and to reduce the release of carbon gases that cause global climate change. The literature indicates that commercial/residential buildings in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) consume an estimated 10–40% of the total electric energy generated. The aim of this study is to analyse wind-speed data of Dhahran (East-Coast, KSA) to assess the economic feasibility of utilising autonomous hybrid wind–diesel power systems to meet the electrical load of 100 typical residential buildings (with annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh). The monthly average wind speeds range from 3.3 to 5.6 m/s. The hybrid systems simulated consist of different combinations of 600 kW commercial wind machines supplemented with diesel generators. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's hybrid optimisation model for electric renewables software was employed to perform the techno-economic analysis.

The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising 600 kW wind capacity together with a 1.0 MW diesel system (two 500 kW units), the wind penetration (at 50 m hub-height, with 0% annual capacity shortage) is 26%. The cost of generating energy (COE, $/kWh) from this hybrid wind–diesel system was found to be 0.070 $/kWh (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/l). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the number of operational hours of diesel generator sets (gensets) decreases with an increase in the wind-farm capacity. Concurrently, emphasis has also been placed on wind penetration, un-met load, effect of hub-height on energy production and COE, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (relative to diesel-only situation) of different hybrid systems, cost breakdown of wind–diesel systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.     

Analysis of observed and perceived climate change and variability in Arsi Negele District,Ethiopia

Climate change and variability has been detected in Ethiopia. Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and forest-dependent households are the most hit by climate-related hazards. They have to have perception of climate change in order to respond it through making coping and/or adaptation strategies. Local perceptions and coping strategies provide a crucial foundation for community-based climate change adaptation measures. This study was specifically designed to (1) assess households’ perception and knowledge in climate change and/or variability, and (2) establish the observed changes in climate parameters with community perceptions and climate anomalies. Purposive stratified random sampling method has been used to gather information from 355 sample households for individual interviews supplemented by group discussion and key informants interviews. The analysis of observed and satellite climate data for the study district showed that mean maximum and minimum temperature for the period 1983–2014 has increased by 0.047 and 0.028 °C/year, respectively. However, the total rainfall has declined by 10.16 mm per annum. Seasonally, the rainfall has declined by 2.198, 4.541, 1.814 and 1.608 mm per annum for Ethiopian summer, spring, autumn and winter seasons, respectively. Similarly, the mean maximum temperature of the study area had showed an increment of 0.035, 0.049, 0.044 and 0.065 °C per year for spring, winter, autumn and summer seasons, respectively. The observed climate variation has been confirmed by people’s perception. Considering what had been the existed situations before 30 years ago as normal, an increase in temperature, an increase in drought frequency, a decrease in total rainfall, erratic nature of its distribution and the tardiness of its onset had been perceived by 88, 70, 97, 80 and 94% of the respondents, respectively, at current time—2015. Deforestation as a casual factor of climate change and variability had been perceived by 99.7% of the respondents. This had been also confirmed by scientific studies as it emits carbon dioxide and is the main driver of climate change and variability. Indigenous knowledge, including climate predictions, has been used by people to implement their day-to-day agricultural activities. Therefore, science should be integrated with the perception and indigenous knowledge of people to come up with concrete solution for climate change and variability impacts on human livelihoods.     

赤水河赤水段鱼类早期资源调查研究

赤水河是长江上游右岸一级支流，是长江上游珍稀特有鱼类国家级自然保护区的重要组成部分。为了解赤水河鱼类的繁殖情况，为保护区鱼类的相关研究和保护工作提供本底资料，于2007和2008年3~7月在赤水河赤水市江段进行了鱼类早期资源的调查工作。结果显示：至少有34种（亚种）鱼类在赤水市江段繁殖，其中包括长江上游特有鱼类4种，产漂流性卵的鱼类8种。鱼类繁殖期从3月持续到7月，盛期为5~7月。两年调查期间，分别经历了7次和5次繁殖高峰；在4~7月，漂流性鲫的资源量分别为3.26×108粒和5.26×108粒。复兴、丙安和太平3个江段为产漂流性卵鱼类的主要产卵场。鱼类繁殖盛期的水温范围为21℃~245℃，流量的增加可以促进产漂流性卵鱼类的繁殖。     

赣江上游典型流域水沙过程对全球气候变化的响应

剖析太阳活动与全球气候变化对地表水文要素的影响机制,能为区域水资源管理提供科学依据。根据1957～2015年逐月实测水沙资料,综合运用滑动平均、相关性、交叉小波和小波相干分析等方法,探讨了相关的全球气候指数对桃江流域水文要素的影响。结果表明:(1)7个全球气候因子与各水文要素的相关性有所不同。(2)全球气候涛动因子与降水、径流和输沙之间的显著共振周期主要集中在1.33～2.67 a;太阳黑子与降水和输沙之间的显著共振周期主要集中在11.00 a左右;降水与径流之间的显著共振周期主要集中在1.17～2.67 a。(3)太阳黑子活动通过"El Niňo-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)-西北太平洋反气旋/气旋环流-东亚季风"系统实现对研究区降水的影响。(4)南极涛动通过影响东亚季风的强弱来影响研究区的降水。北极涛动通过西太平洋副热带高压影响东亚冬季风,来实现对研究区降水的影响。太平洋-北美涛动和北大西洋涛动通过影响研究区的气流与风的异常来影响研究区的冬季降水。     

Mapping spots: fishing areas or territories among islanders of the Atlantic Forest (Brazil)

This study analyzes the fishing areas or spots used by artisanal fishers of the Atlantic Forest coast. Fishers include inhabitants of islands of the SE Atlantic Forest in Brazil. Data on fish landings were collected for different islands, in 1986 and 1989–1990, for species caught, technology used and fishing time. Fishing spots were marked or rechecked using GPS in 1997–1999. Fishing is performed in paddled, motorized canoes or in small boats with set gillnets or hook and line. Marine animals caught vary from place to place and include fish, shrimp, squid and crab. Spots used are very stable in time, since they did not change for about 10 years. Among other factors, technology limits the range of access of the fishers to the spots. An informal division of fishing areas or spots is observed, based on the locality of residence of the fishers. The mapping and observed division of fishing spots may be used in local management, helping to control the intrusion of industrial fishers in artisanal areas. Local rules and discrimination of spot users may be helpful for artisanal fishers, especially in areas where conflicts with trawlers occur. The observed long-term stability of the use of fishing spots by artisanal fishers and conflicts with other users indicate the urgency of considering local rules for conservation purposes in Atlantic Forest coastal areas. Electronic Publication     

Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and ?14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO₂) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (?20 ÷ ?26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (?8 ÷ ?19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (?4 ÷ ?1 %).