公元1600年秘鲁Huaynaputina火山喷发与长江中下游地区的气候异常

公元1600年秘鲁Huaynaputina火山喷发是过去1 000年全球最大规模的火山喷发之一。考察了此次火山喷发在中国长江中下游地区的可能气候效应。经查阅中国历史文献，在《见闻杂记》、《袁宏道集》和明清地方志中发现了有价值的资料。此次火山喷发在长江中下游地区的气候效应可能表现得比较复杂。结合《见闻杂记》和明清地方志，发现1601年长江下游地区夏季降雪，异常寒冷；结合《袁宏道集》和明清地方志，发现1602年年初至春季长江中下游地区异常多雪和寒冷，这些气候异常与欧洲历史文献和北半球树轮序列等比较一致。另外，结合《见闻杂记》和明清地方志，还发现1601年秋季长江下游部分地区异常炎热。上述气候异常未必都能完全归因于Huaynaputina喷发，但Huaynaputina喷发应该是其中的一个重要原因。〖     

公元1600年秘鲁Huaynaputina火山喷发与长江中下游地区的气候异常

公元1600年秘鲁Huaynaputina火山喷发是过去1 000年全球最大规模的火山喷发之一.考察了此次火山喷发在中国长江中下游地区的可能气候效应.经查阅中国历史文献,在<见闻杂记>、<袁宏道集>和明清地方志中发现了有价值的资料.此次火山喷发在长江中下游地区的气候效应可能表现得比较复杂.结合<见闻杂记>和明清地方志,发现1601年长江下游地区夏季降雪,异常寒冷;结合<袁宏道集>和明清地方志,发现1602年年初至春季长江中下游地区异常多雪和寒冷,这些气候异常与欧洲历史文献和北半球树轮序列等比较一致.另外,结合<见闻杂记>和明清地方志,还发现1601年秋季长江下游部分地区异常炎热.上述气候异常未必都能完全归因于Huaynaputina喷发,但Huaynaputina喷发应该是其中的一个重要原因.     

The possible climate impact on the collapse of an ancient urban city in Mu Us Desert, China

Tongwan City is one of the most famous and best-researched archaeological sites in China. By using palaeoclimatology proxy records from China over the last 2,000 years and archaeological/historical documents, we analyse the possible effect of climate on the collapse of Tongwan City, an ancient urban city of the Daxia state (AD 407–427). During Tongwan City’s existence (AD 413–994), two severe cold and drought stages were recorded by both natural proxy data and the synthesis compiled from the historical documents. The first cold and drought stage occurred at about AD 420–550, with the lowest point centred at about AD 500. The second cold and drought stage occurred at about AD 780–950. These periods correspond to the times of climate deterioration, especially weak summer monsoons, which eventually resulted in the intensive desertification and collapse of Tongwan City.     

汉江上游郧县段全新世特大洪水事件光释光测年研究

通过对汉江上游的野外考察,在湖北郧县段河谷发现了含有典型的古洪水滞流沉积物的全新世风成黄土土壤剖面。对该剖面采集样品,进行了沉积学分析,并且应用光释光技术中的单片再生剂量法（SAR）测定获得其OSL年龄,结合地层对比和文化层考古学断代,确定由古洪水滞流沉积层记录的特大洪水事件发生在距今1 800～1 700 a之间,对应于我国历史上的东汉至魏晋时期（A.D. 200～300）。通过与汉江上游地区、国内和世界各地的多种指标气候变化记录的对比分析,揭示出特大洪水事件发生在东汉至南北朝时期的气候恶化期。由于气候状态不稳定,降水变率大,致使严重地干旱和特大洪水皆有发生。该成果对我们深刻理解区域水文系统对于全球变化的响应规律具有重要意义     

江浙沪地区历史重大洪涝灾害情景下的人口和GDP物理暴露量分析

利用江浙沪地区1644～1949年洪涝灾害数据库,基于年受灾县次,对该地区历史重大洪涝灾害年进行了辨识,并以历史重大洪涝灾害为情景,对其重现于2010年的人口和GDP物理暴露量进行分析,得到以下结论：(1）按受灾县次划分,1644～1949年江浙沪地区重大洪涝灾害频率在50～100年一遇的为1670年、1683年、1804年;100～300年一遇的为1823年、1849年;300年一遇的为1931年;（2）重大洪涝灾害暴露区主要集中于长江三角洲地区;（3）6次重大洪涝灾害情景下,人口物理暴露量基本超过2010年该区人口总量的40%,而GDP物理暴露量则几乎超过了其总量的50%;（4）江苏受灾最为明显,上海受灾幅度波动最大,尤其是在100年一遇洪涝灾害前后受灾影响差距很大,浙江受灾影响相对稳定;（5）该区人口、GDP物理暴露量并不一定与受灾县次呈典型的正相关关系,可能与其人口、经济分布格局等因素有关     

Migration and reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters in North China over the past 300?years

Climatic disaster-induced migration and its effects on land exploitation of new settlements is a crucial topic that needs to be researched to better understand the impact of climate change and human adaptation. This paper focuses on the process and mechanism of migrant–reclamation in Northeast China in response to climatic disasters over the past 300 years. The research used comparative analysis of key interlinked factors in this response involving drought/flood events, population, cropland area, farmer revolts, administrations establishment, and land reclamation policies. It draws the following conclusions: (1) seven peaks of migrants–reclamation in Northeast China were evident, most likely when frequent climatic disasters happened in North China, such as the drought–flood in 1851–1859, drought in 1875–1877, and drought 1927–1929; (2) six instances of policy transformation adopted to cope with extreme climatic events, including distinctive examples like changing to a firm policy prohibiting migration in 1740 and a subsequent lifting of that prohibition in 1860; and (3) the fast expansion of the northern agricultural boundary since the middle of the nineteenth century in this area benefited from a climate change trend from a cold period into a warm period. Altogether, over the past 300 years, extreme climatic disasters in North China have deepened the contradiction between the limited land resources and the rapidly increasing population and have resulted in migration and reclamation in Northeast China. Climate, policy, and reclamation constructed an organic chain of response that dominated the land use/cover change process of Northeast China.     

Climate change/variability and food systems: evidence from the Afram Plains,Ghana

While there are many studies of the impacts of climate change and variability on food production, few studies are devoted to a comprehensive assessment of impacts on food systems. Results of a survey of food systems and household adaptation strategies in three communities in the Afram Plains, Ghana, reveal how extreme climatic events affect rural food production, transportation, processing and storage. Adaptation strategies implemented by the three communities during past droughts serve as a foundation for planning responses to future climate change. Results of this study suggest that food security in this region—where droughts and floods are expected to become more severe due to climate change—could be enhanced by increasing farm-based storage facilities; improving the transportation system, especially feeder roads that link food production areas and major markets; providing farmers with early warning systems; extending credit to farmers; and the use of supplementary irrigation. This study also indicates that some cultural practices, particularly those that prohibit the consumption of certain foods, may reduce the resilience of some individuals and ethnic groups to food system disruptions. Understanding the local context and the responses of households is critical to the development of effective strategies for reducing the potential adverse impacts of climatic change on food security in rural Ghana.     

Soil erosion response to climatic change and human activity during the Quaternary on the Loess Plateau, China

We review published stratigraphic, archaeological and pedosedimentary evidence in order to reconstruct the history of soil erosion in China. Documentary evidence of climatic and flood events of the Yellow River and modern hydrological and meteorological data are synthesised to analyse the history of past human activity and its effects on soil erosion intensity during four nested periods of time during the Quaternary. The most intensive period of erosion during the Quaternary was in the Holocene. During the Holocene, intervals of intensive soil erosion occurred at 7500–7000 BP, 200 BCE–0 CE, 1000–1600 CE (Christian era) and during the 1930s, 1950s and the later part of the 1960s of the last century. Large-scale human activity including warfare during early Chinese history, population migration, the inner wars in 1930s, the Cultural Revolution and the recent national campaign to aid soil and water conservation are all closely related to the rate of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau and to sediment loads in the Yellow River. Overall, soil erosion during the transition from dry-cool to wet-warm climates was more intense than during wet-warm and cool-dry climatic episodes, but serious accelerated soil erosion has occurred during the last 2,500 years because of man-induced devastation of vegetation and other anthropogenic disturbance of the environment. Modern rates of soil erosion on the Loess Plateau are a combination of both intensive natural and human-induced erosions and are some four times greater than occurred in the geological past. The recent implementation of soil and water conservation measures has decreased sediment load in the Yellow River by 25%.     

Vulnerability of water discharge of large Chinese rivers to environmental changes: an overview

In an era of rapid environmental change, China is facing increasing problems in the management of its large rivers and water resources. The disastrous 1998 Yangtze floods and the emerging water shortages in north China raised further concerns about the potential impact of environmental change on extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Over the past few decades, increasing water consumption by the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as a number of human activities such as deforestation, agricultural land expansion, wetland reclamation, construction of reservoirs and roads, water diversion, and sand/stone excavation significantly affect hydro-geomorphic processes such as water discharge and sediment flux throughout China. This paper aims to provide an overview of recent research on the water discharge changes occurring in major Chinese rivers and their vulnerability to environmental change. Most of the rivers, notably in north China, have experienced significant changes in water discharge over the last few decades, indicating that they are vulnerable to climatic variations and human activities. In contrast to north China, the rivers in south China have experienced less change, but some of the detected changes displayed similar trends to those in north China, though at a slower pace. These profound changes, in addition to the on-going projects such as the Three Gorges Dam Project and the South-North Water Transfer Project, will completely alter Chinas waterscape.     

Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades

We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.     

Evolutionary ecological analysis of adaptation strategies of rodent populations under extreme conditions

Adaptive strategies of cyclomorphic rodent populations (Rodentia) under extreme conditions of droughts (in 1975 and 2010) have been analyzed on the basis of functional–ontogenetic approach. The following features of these strategies have been revealed: minimization of metabolic processes, block of sexual maturation, intergenerational crossing, prolongation of breeding period, and species-specific features in the dynamics of intrapopulation processes. Profound changes in the level of long-term oscillations of abundance after the drought have been noted in different species. Evidence is provided for the possibility of extremely rapid population rearrangements on an evolutionary scale that are fixed in a series of generations.     

Climatic and environmental change in the Karakoram: making sense of community perceptions and adaptation strategies

In this paper, we investigate how mountain communities perceive and adapt to climatic and environmental change. Primary data were collected at community and household level through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and quantitative questionnaires covering 210 households in six villages of the West Karakoram (Hundur and Darkut in the Yasin Valley; Hussainabad, Altit, Gulmit, and Shiskat in the Hunza valley of Gilgit-Baltistan). The relevance of the area with respect to our scopes is manifold. First, this is one of the most extreme and remote mountainous areas of the world, characterized by complex and fragile institutional and social fabrics. Second, this region is one of the focal points of research for the hydro-meteo-climatological scientific community, because of its relevance in terms of storage and variability of water resources for the whole Indus basin, and for the presence of conflicting signals of climate change with respect to the neighboring regions. Third, the extreme hardships due to a changing environment, as well as to the volatility of the social and economic conditions are putting great stress on the local population. As isolating climate change as a single driver is often not possible, community perceptions of change are analyzed in the livelihood context and confronted with multi-drivers scenarios affecting the lives of mountain people. We compare the collected perceptions with the available hydro-climatological data, trying to answer some key questions such as: how are communities perceiving, coping with, and adapting to climatic and environmental change? Which are the most resorted adaptation strategies? How is their perception of change influencing the decision to undertake certain adaptive measures?     

Environment and sustainability of the Middle Route,South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China: a close look

In many arid and semiarid regions, water scarcity, population increase and frequent droughts are exerting great pressures on water resources. Presently, the Mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (MRSN) was built to mitigate the water crisis in the north of China by long-distance transfer of water from the Yangtze River in southern China. This study investigated the running condition of the MRSN, including operation management, freezing situation and water quality. Water samples were also taken from different sites and then analyzed in laboratory. Results suggest that the project was reasonably designed and the project management was excellent. Closed management was adopted in the project to protect water quality. The sediment concentrations and water turbidities of the water samples were in the range of 0.2–0.8 kg/m³ and 0.8–1.7 NTU, respectively, which met or were close to the standards of drinking water in China. Water freezing is also not a problem, since the thickest ice was only 0.9 cm even in the coldest season as the authors measured the investigation, and at the same time, the ice booms worked well. In the future, it is promising that to effectively integrate the methods of self-rescuing and water importing could fundamentally conquer water shortage, reasonably allocate water resources and finally achieve the harmonious development of economics, ecology and society.     

９６１~２０１０年中国大陆地面气候要素变化特征分析

利用1961~2010年全国大陆地面468个气象台站的气温、降水和日照时数等资料，采用Jones等提出的计算区域平均气候时间序列的方法对全国数据进行加权平均处理，采用线性趋势、反距离加权插值、Morlet小波分析、Mann Kendall法，分析了我国大陆地面近50 a来各气候要素的变化特征。研究表明：年平均气温、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温均呈显著上升趋势，年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数均呈显著减少趋势；年平均气温、年平均降水、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数分别存在14、26、14、14、25、16、26、25和25 a左右的变化主周期；在005的置信度水平下，年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年极端温度差、年平均降水和年平均日照时数均发生突变，其分别在1996、1981、1997、1975、1983和1982年发生突变，其余要素均未发生突变。分析还发现，各气候要素的变化主周期分别存在一定的相似性，突变时间也存在一定联系     

近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析

极端降水具有较强的持续时间不确定性，持续多天的极端降水事件往往具有较大的致灾性，但目前从极端降水持续性角度进行极端降水变化及其环流因素的研究还非常缺乏。利用1961~2018年中国逐日降水格点数据集以及大气环流指数数据，定义持续了2天及以上的极端降水为持续极端降水事件，研究其在中国不同区域发生频次、持续日数以及持续极端降水总量、持续极端降水最大降水量的时空变化和影响因素。结果表明：（1）近60年来，中国持续极端降水事件在较为干旱的地区(蒙新地区、青藏地区)高发且持续时间长，但在较湿润的地区（东部地区）持续极端降水事件强度更高。（2）中国持续极端降水事件的频率和强度均呈现出增加的趋势，但在区域尺度上，东部地区没有明显的变化趋势，越干旱的地区增加趋势越大。各个指数变化趋势的空间分布格局相似。（3）持续极端降水事件对总降水的贡献率呈现出缓慢的增长趋势，东部地区增长趋势不明显。（4）西太平洋副高、南海副高、西太平洋暖池、亚洲区极涡、北半球极涡和中国持续极端降水事件有着显著的相关关系。区域尺度上，西太平洋副高对蒙新地区和青藏地区的影响最大，东部地区则受到西太平洋副高和西太平洋暖池的较大影响。总体上西太平洋副高对于中国持续极端降水事件影响最大，西太平洋副高强度的加强往往会引起中国持续极端降水增多。     

Multi-stage evolution of social response to flood/drought in the North China Plain during 1644–1911

How the past human society responded to climatic disasters could provide better understanding on the nature of climate–human–ecosystem interactions and the knowledge of the vulnerability for the society in the context of changing climate. In this paper, the North China Plain in the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) is selected as a typical regional social-ecological system; with historical information kept in official documents, social responsive behavior and measures to flood/drought (e.g., reclamation, disaster relief, migration, revolt) are quantitatively described with proxy indicator time-series. It is found that the dominant responsive strategy altered significantly in different stages: (1) stage of cropland expansion (1644–1720); (2) stage of governmental disaster relief (1721–1780); (3) stage of increasing climate refugees (1781–1860); (4) stage of revolt and emigration (1861–1911). The multi-stage evolution of social response was impacted by various natural and social factors: (1) regional population–food balance and governmental finance were the most important limiting factors; (2) the interaction between the governmental policy and refugees’ behavior in disasters affected the social consequences to a certain extent; (3) decadal-to-multi-decadal climate change would also impact the social response measures, even directly trigger the shift of dominant responsive strategy. This study would be helpful for deeper understanding of social resilience and better responding to climate change and extreme events in the present and future.     

Assessing the economy-wide effects of climate change adaptation options of land transport systems in Austria

Due to climate change, transport systems are expected to become increasingly stressed by extreme weather and gradual climatic changes, resulting in direct costs within the affected sectors as well as indirect costs from sectoral interlinkages. To reduce these costs, sector-specific climate change adaptation measures are needed, raising the question of the net benefits of adaptation at a macroeconomic level. However, despite their importance such assessments of impacts and adaptation at the macrolevel are scarce and coarse in their implementation. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by analyzing specific adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors in Austria using a computable general equilibrium model. The findings are as follows: First, direct impact costs more than double due to macroeconomic linkages. Hence, the indirect costs are found to be larger than the direct costs. Second, when analyzing adaptation measures for the road and rail sectors, without capturing any indirect effects, benefit–cost ratios imply a clear benefit only for the rail sector. However, when indirect effects via sectoral interlinkages are also captured, adaptation measures in both sectors, road and rail, clearly pay off. Climate change-induced GDP and welfare losses are reduced by 55 and 34% and lead to positive employment effects. Third, even at rather low damage reduction potentials, adaptation leads to a net benefit at the macroeconomic level.

     

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human’s adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China’s efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human’s social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.     

汉江上游晚冰期以来古洪水事件发生的气候背景分析

古洪水事件是地表水文系统对极端性气候突变的响应。通过收集和整理汉江上游古洪水水文学研究成果，发现汉江上游T1阶地前沿的黄土-古土壤沉积剖面中记录了晚冰期以来10期古洪水事件，分别发生在12 600~12 400、11 500~11 400、 9 000~8 500、8 500~8 400、7 500~7 000、5 500~5 000、4 200~4 000、3 200~2 800、1 900~1 700和1 000~900 a BP。与国内外气候变化研究的成果对比分析，表明汉江上游发生的这10期古洪水发生时期，正好对应末次冰期晚冰期以来全球气候突变或转折期，说明汉江上游古洪水事件是对气候突变的响应。此研究结果对深入了解我国半湿润地区河流水文系统与气候变化的相互作用具有重要意义。     

Cyclicity of long-term population dynamics in damselflies of the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Coenagrion</Emphasis> (Odonata,Zygoptera) in the Lake Chany basin

The cyclicity of population dynamics of abundance has been analyzed in sympatric adult populations of three odonate species monitored for long time (1980–2010) in the Lake Chany basin (Western Siberia). The spectra of odonate population dynamics have been constructed for the first time and shown to be species-specific: each species has its own population cycles, and if the cycles are similar, interspecific differences manifest themselves in the relative power of these cycles. These differences provide for separation of species in time, reducing the stress of competition between them. The population rhythms of all studied species show synchronicity with natural rhythms that are important to them, such as fluctuations of climatic parameters (2–3 year cycles) and hydrological parameters of Lake Chany (2–4-year cycles).