Climate change driven plant–metal–microbe interactions

Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico–chemico–biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant–metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant–microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant–metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security.     

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects — the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial–temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.     

An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Greece in the near future

Climate changes in the Mediterranean region, related to a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns, can potentially affect local economies. Agriculture and tourism are undoubtedly the most important economic sources for Greece and these may be more strongly affected by changing future climate conditions. Climate change and their various negative impacts on human life are also detected in their environment; hence this study deals with implications, caused by changing climate, in urban and forest areas. Potential changes for the mid-twenty-first century (2021–2050) are analysed using a high-resolution regional climate model. This paper presents relevant climatic indices, indicative for potential implications which may jeopardise vital economic/environmental sectors of the country. The results provide insights into particular regions of the Greek territory that may undergo substantial impacts due to climate change. It is concluded that the duration of dry days is expected to increase in most of the studied agricultural regions. Winter precipitation generally decreases, whereas an increase in autumn precipitation is projected in most areas. Changing climate conditions associated with increased minimum temperatures (approximately 1.3°C) and decreased winter precipitation by 15% on average suggest that the risk for forest fires is intensified in the future. In urban areas, unpleasantly high temperatures during day and night will increase the feeling of discomfort in the citizens, while flash floods events are expected to occur more frequently. Another impact of climate change in urban regions is the increasing energy demand for cooling in summer. Finally, it was found that continental tourist areas of the Greek mainland will more often face heatwave episodes. In coastal regions, increased temperatures especially at night in combination with high levels of relative humidity can lead to conditions that are nothing less than uncomfortable for foreigners and the local population. In general, projected changes associated with temperature have a higher degree of confidence than those associated with precipitation.     

Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

A critical review of impact of and adaptation to climate change in developed and developing economies

Rapid change in climate is set to alter the delicate balance that exists between man and nature. It is more so for the region which are ecologically fragile. The literature to this effect points out that the poorest countries and communities are likely to suffer the most because of their geographic locations, low income and low institutional capacity, as well as their greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture. Even if climate mitigations plans are implemented properly there will be some degree of warming due to inertia of emissions already released. As such, there is a strong consensus about the need of adaptation to changing climatic conditions. Adaptation is believed to enhance the resilience against increasing climate variability. In this backdrop, the objective of the present paper is, therefore, to systematically and critically review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change and choice of adaptations across countries and draw insights for suggesting a comprehensive policy framework particularly for developing countries in this regard. The paper finds that the role of government and civil society is crucial for enabling efficient adaptation methods. Development policies and programs having synergy effect with climate change initiatives help adapt with the changing climate better. However, the availability of clean technology in developing countries will play the decisive role in controlling their growth rate of emission. This will be made feasible only when there is a better understanding of the problem between the developed and developing world about the eminent danger arising out of climate change.     

Bioclimatic modelling of current and projected climatic suitability of coffee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Coffea arabica</Emphasis>) production in Zimbabwe

Coffee is an important commodity crop in Zimbabwe and many other African countries in terms of its contribution to local and national economies. Coffee production in terms of productivity and quality face severe constraints due to climate change. A study was therefore carried out to understand and quantify the potential impact of climate change on the coffee sector in Zimbabwe using a bioclimatic modelling approach. Current climatically suitable areas were identified and compared with those areas identified to be climatically suitable under projected 2050 climatic conditions. The projected climatic conditions were obtained from climate predictions of two models: CCSM4 model and HadGEM2 model. Coffee production was found to be mostly sensitive to precipitation factors as these were the most important in determining climatic suitability of coffee production in Zimbabwe. The modelling showed that current coffee suitability varies spatially between the four coffee producing districts in Zimbabwe. Chipinge district has the largest area climatically suitable for coffee production followed by Chimanimani district with Mutare district having the smallest. The modelling predicted that there will be a spatial and quantitative change in climatic suitability for coffee production in Zimbabwe by 2050. The greatest changes are projected for Mutare district where over three quarters according to the CCSM4 model and the entire district according to the HadGEM2 model will turn marginal for coffee production. A westward shift in climatic suitability of coffee was observed for Chipinge and Chimanimani district. The models predicted a loss of between 30,000 ha (CCSM4) and 50,000 ha (HadGEM2) in areas climatically suitable for coffee production by 2050 in Zimbabwe. These changes are likely to be driven by changes in the distribution of precipitation received in the coffee areas. The study presents possible adaptation measures that can be adopted by the coffee sector in Zimbabwe and the region to maintain coffee productivity under a changing climate.     

Car free cities: Pathway to healthy urban living

BackgroundMany cities across the world are beginning to shift their mobility solution away from the private cars and towards more environmentally friendly and citizen-focused means. Hamburg, Oslo, Helsinki, and Madrid have recently announced their plans to become (partly) private car free cities. Other cities like Paris, Milan, Chengdu, Masdar, Dublin, Brussels, Copenhagen, Bogota, and Hyderabad have measures that aim at reducing motorized traffic including implementing car free days, investing in cycling infrastructure and pedestrianization, restricting parking spaces and considerable increases in public transport provision. Such plans and measures are particularly implemented with the declared aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These reductions are also likely to benefit public health.AimsWe aimed to describe the plans for private car free cities and its likely effects on public health.MethodsWe reviewed the grey and scientific literature on plans for private car free cities, restricted car use, related exposures and health.ResultsAn increasing number of cities are planning to become (partly) private car free. They mainly focus on the reduction of private car use in city centers. The likely effects of such policies are significant reductions in traffic-related air pollution, noise, and temperature in city centers. For example, up to a 40% reduction in NO₂ levels has been reported on car free days. These reductions are likely to lead to a reduction in premature mortality and morbidity. Furthermore the reduction in the number of cars, and therefore a reduction in the need for parking places and road space, provides opportunities to increase green space and green networks in cities, which in turn can lead to many beneficial health effects. All these measures are likely to lead to higher levels of active mobility and physical activity which may improve public health the most and also provide more opportunities for people to interact with each other in public space. Furthermore, such initiatives, if undertaken at a sufficiently large scale can result in positive distal effects and climate change mitigation through CO₂ reductions. The potential negative effects which may arise due to motorized traffic detouring around car free zone into their destinations also need further evaluation and the areas in which car free zones are introduced need to be given sufficient attention so as not to become an additional way to exacerbate socioeconomic divides. The extent and magnitude of all the above effects is still unclear and needs further research, including full chain health impact assessment modeling to quantify the potential health benefits of such schemes, and exposure and epidemiological studies to measure any changes when such interventions take place.ConclusionsThe introduction of private car free cities is likely to have direct and indirect health benefits, but the exact magnitude and potential conflicting effects are as yet unclear. This paper has overviewed the expected health impacts, which can be useful to underpin policies to reduce car use in cities.     

Canadian Weathercasters’ Current and Potential Role as Climate Change Communicators

ABSTRACT

Climatologists worldwide are calling for urgent action to manage climate change, but public engagement remains a significant challenge. This lack of engagement is often attributed to psychological distance: climate change is perceived as something happening far away, to other people, or in a hypothetical future. TV weathercasters are ideally situated to communicate the geographically and temporally proximate impacts of climate change and increase public engagement. This study explores the status of climate change reporting amongst weathercasters in Canada, where no such research has been conducted. The respondents suggested that many, but not all, weathercasters are engaged with climate change and interested in presenting local, climate-related content; however, their on-air climate change communication behavior is highly limited. This analysis builds on research conducted with American weather broadcaster by indicating that Canadian weathercasters share their potential as effective climate change communicators, but are highly uncertain about their capacity to support this role.     

Assessing suitability of apple cultivation under climate change in mountainous regions of western Nepal

Mustang, a mountainous region in the Kali Gandaki River Basin in western Nepal, has been increasingly experiencing climatic changes (e.g., higher temperatures). Rising temperatures lead to ecological shifts, which, in turn, can lead to the expansion of the lower limit for the cultivation of apple trees in this area. Apple cultivation can provide opportunities for adaptations under climate change through vulnerability reduction, income source diversification, livelihood improvement, and capacity building for farmers. As there is a lack of a strong basis to justify the expansion of apple cultivation in Mustang, this study examines the biophysical and socioeconomic suitability of apple cultivation in the area. Necessary data and information were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Findings of biophysical suitability using variable and equal weights to the indicators showed that 5.2 and 4.1 % of the areas are highly suitable for apple cultivation, respectively. However, not all potential farming areas are currently in use. Thus, there is the possibility to expand apple cultivation into unplanted areas and to integrate apple crops with other crops on cultivated lands. Increasing temperature may increase the suitable areas for the cultivation of apples in the coming years. High, benefit–cost ratio for land use confirmed the economic suitability of apple farming when compared to other land uses. The social suitability assessment showed no social discords, conflicts, or disagreements with apple cultivation, which is a positive indicator for the expansion of apple cultivation in western Nepal.     

Vegetation and climate

Over the last two centuries, man's activities have caused a 30% increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂, with continued increases seeming inevitable. This change in CO₂ concentration will act on vegetation, both directly and indirectly through global climatic change. It is well established that, on a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated. Such correlations indicate that climatic change will cause the distribution of vegetation to change. However, the use of correlations for predicting vegetation responses to climatic change is fundamentally unreliable because correlations have no mechanistic underpinning of causation. This paper outlines a mechanistic model for predicting the equilibrium state between current climate and vegetation. It is also used to indicate the sensitivity of global vegetation to the changed climate associated with a doubled CO₂—greenhouse scenario. The interpretation of this static model is discussed in terms of rates and patterns of vegetation change.     

Holocene fire history from the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area, New South Wales, Australia: the climate, humans and fire nexus

This study presents a reconstruction of the fire activity of the last ~14,200 cal. years BP (before AD 1950) from Gooches Crater Right, located on the Newnes Plateau, approximately 150 km to the west of Sydney (~33°27′S, 150°16′E) within the Blue Mountains National Park. Charcoal analysis and palynology were undertaken with the aim of untangling any inter-relationship between climate, humans and fire. A chronology of the site was provided by radiocarbon dating. The dominant control on fire in this environment during the Holocene appears to be climate. Periods of climate change, identified in previous studies, are associated with higher levels of fire activity. Fire was less ubiquitous between ~9,000 and 6,000 years BP, a period normally described as having a higher effective moisture in south-eastern Australia. The mid-Holocene fluctuations in charcoal may reflect anthropogenic fire, climate forcing or alternatively human responses to any climate change. Coeval changes in palaeoclimatic sequences elsewhere and palynology at the site support a climatic explanation or that Aboriginal people used fire within a climatic framework.     

European winegrowers’ perceptions of climate change impact and options for adaptation

A questionnaire on the perception of climate change and the impact of climate change was distributed among winegrowers in France, Germany, and Italy. These countries are located in three macro-climatic regions that experienced different patterns of climatic change in the twentieth century—Atlantic, transition to Continental and Mediterranean. The majority of winegrowers perceived changing climatic conditions in the last few decades. The characterization of these changes is consistent with results obtained by the analysis of long-term trends in climatic records. The winegrowers noted impacts on harvestable quantities (mainly in Italy), must quality, and risks of pests and diseases. The majority of respondents (66%) indicated an impact on wine quality, which was perceived as quality improvement in 55% of the cases. Perceived impacts on pests and diseases were reported in 56% of the responses. A strong majority of this group (80%) also reported increasing threats. Perceived climatic change and its noticeable impacts has led to growing interest in adaptation options, combined with a need for more information, among winegrowers. Thus, the transfer of technical knowledge from scientific research to practice is necessary for adaptation. Plans for adaptation by a change of wine varieties were reported with substantially different results among the regions. A majority of German growers said they would consider changing varieties to adapt to warming temperatures, while only a minority of the Italian and French growers said they would consider such changes. However, readiness to adopt adaptation measures is correlated with the degree of changes already planned, independent of climatic change.     

Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: key challenges—scales, knowledge, and norms

Statistical data shows that the increase in disasters due to natural hazards over the past 20 years has, for the most part, been caused by meteorological and hydrological events. This increase has been largely assigned to climate change [Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), 2010, http://www.emdat.be/Database/Trends/trends.html], that is, with climate-related hazards being major triggers for the majority of disasters. Consequently, there is obvious concern about how a changing climate will exacerbate the situation in the future (McBean and Ajibade in Curr Opin Environ Sustain 1:179–186, 2009). However, the attribution of a single hazard event or specific losses to climate change is still difficult, if not impossible, due to the complexity of factors that generate disaster losses. Disaster risk is a product of the interaction of the hazard (event) and the vulnerability conditions of the society or elements exposed. As a result, the need for a systematic linkage between disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) to advance sustainable development, and finally human security is being discussed within the ongoing climate change negotiations as well as within the disaster risk community, for example, in the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report on ‘Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation’. However, crucial differences between DRR and CCA exist that have widely limited or hampered their integration in practice. A review of existing literature on the topic and current national and local adaptation strategies, as well as 38 expert interviews conducted between April and May 2009, have led the authors to hypothesise that most of these differences and challenges can be categorised with respect to different spatial and temporal scales, the knowledge base, and norm systems. This paper examines the reasons for the practical barriers when linking CCA and DRR according to these three aspects. Finally, we outline recommendations and measures that need to be adopted in order to overcome existing barriers. In addition, quality criteria are formulated that should be applied in order to constantly monitor and evaluate adaptation strategies designed to simultaneously meet DRR requirements and vice versa.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.     

Compromises of Bali Roadmap

Abstract

The Bali Roadmap, as the breakthrough on inter-governmental negotiation of climate change mitigation, having brought United States on track, is still a result of compromises. The major compromises of the Bali Roadmap are centered around three issues of quantifying emission reduction targets, developing countries’ obligations as well as quantifying developed countries’ financial assistance in developing countries’ capacity building on climate change. It is found that the rationalities behind these compromises are the national interests. Due to the fact, achieving cohesion among all nations in climate change actions is very difficult. Therefore, the Bali Roadmap may lead to a tough way with distant hope. However, technology innovation and well-designed economic instruments would be helpful and supportive for further international negotiation and cooperation.     

Increasing Local Salience of Climate Change: The Un-tapped Impact of the Media-science Interface

ABSTRACT

The media play a vital role in framing the narrative on climate change, however little work exists to assess the extent to which local media outlets increase public engagement on climate change through interaction and engagement with local academics. As temperatures rise and concerns mount that we have passed the tipping point, local media play a potentially critical role in communicating how climate change exacerbates their impact. Based on a review of extant literature on this topic, and a small pilot email survey, this article argues that scientists could be more active in increasing local salience of climate change by building trusted relationships with local media. Coverage of science in the media could benefit from closer engagement with local scientists as environmental stories often get more coverage in local media (compared to national media) which constitute an important source of knowledge on climate change. This would enable constructive discussions between local media and scientists, better translation of science to publics, increased awareness and interest of science production locally, and ultimately creating a trusted intermediary in the science-public interface.     

Role of climate risks and socio-economic factors in influencing the impact of climatic extremes: a normalisation study in the context of Odisha,India

Economic costs imposed by climatic extremes have been increasing over the years and are expected to follow a similar trend in the coming years as well. Such costs are incurred due to two factors: (1) natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change and (2) exposure and vulnerability of socio-economic factors. The impact of these factors as identified separately through a ‘normalisation technique’ is analysed in the existing normalisation studies conducted mostly in developed country contexts; these have produced mixed results. However, one needs to enquire about the influence of the above two factors in a developing country context where the anticipated impacts of climate extremes are significant. This study, therefore, makes an attempt to adjust impact data, in terms of the reported population affected and economic damages of three extreme events, namely cyclones, floods and droughts, together for societal changes between 1972 and 2009 in Odisha in eastern India. Further, the second component is analysed in two ways: (1) assuming that exposed socio-economic factors are equally vulnerable similar to the other normalisation studies, i.e. no adaptation and (2) incorporating adaptation in the existing normalisation methods—which has attracted less attention so far in the literature. The results suggest that: (a) both the natural climate variability and the socio-economic factors influence the increasing damages in the recent decades, and (b) when adaptation is introduced in the normalisation model, economic losses have reduced significantly compared to the estimates using the existing normalisation models.