Sensitivity of typical Mediterranean crops to past and future evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation in Apulia

The region of Apulia, which is located in the south-east tip of the Italian Peninsula, has a typical Mediterranean climate with mild winters and hot-dry summers. Agriculture, an important sector of its economy, is potentially threatened by future climate change. This study describes the evolution of seasonal temperature and precipitation from the recent past to the next decades and estimates future potential impacts of climate change on three main agricultural products: wine, wheat and olives. Analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking these three agricultural products to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In Apulia, precipitation and temperature time series show trends toward warmer and marginally drier conditions during the whole analyzed (1951–2005) period: 0.18 °C/decade in mean annual minimum temperature and ?14.9 mm/decade in the annual total precipitation. Temperature trends have been progressively increasing and rates of change have become noticeably more intense during the last 25 years of the twentieth century. Model simulations are consistent with observed trends for the period 1951–2000 and show a large acceleration of the warming rate in the period 2001–2050 with respect to the period 1951–2000. Further, in the period 2001–2050, simulations show a decrease in precipitation, which was not present in the previous 50 years. Wine production, wheat and olive harvest records show large inter-annual variability with statistically significant links to seasonal temperature and precipitation, whose strength, however, strongly depends on the considered variables. Linear regression analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation variability explains a small, but not negligible, fraction of the inter-annual variability of these crops (40, 18, 9 % for wine, olives and wheat, respectively). Results (which consider no adaptation of crops and no fertilization effect of CO₂) suggest that evolution of these seasonal climate variables in the first half of the twenty-first century could decrease all considered variables. The most affected is wine production (?20 ÷ ?26 %). The effect is relevant also on harvested olives (?8 ÷ ?19 %) and negligible on harvested wheat (?4 ÷ ?1 %).     

农村税费改革对农业土地利用的影响:一个宏观评价

以取消农业税和加大农业补贴力度为主要特征的农村税费改革，是近年来中国农村地区的一次重大制度改革。为探讨其对农业土地利用的影响，在简要回顾农村税费改革主要历程的基础上，通过构建计量经济模型，从宏观层面分析验证了农村税费改革对农业土地利用规模和利用效率的具体影响。结果表明: 农村税费改革对农业土地利用的影响主要体现为农户行为响应产生的引致效应；无论是农业税的取消还是财政支农政策的加强都对农业土地利用规模的扩大产生了显著影响；而农村税费改革对农业土地利用效率的影响则并不明显。为此，中国政府今后仍需在农业补贴支出结构以及相关配套政策创新方面进一步优化     

Climate change and agricultural vulnerability: a case study of rain-fed wheat in Kairouan,Central Tunisia

In the Maghreb and North African regions, the interannual climate variability causes severe impacts on agriculture through long drought episodes. Impacts are expected to increase due to projected climate change. Decreasing water availability will have a direct impact on the agriculture sector and could endanger the socioeconomic development and social stability in Tunisia where rain-fed agriculture represents the main occupancy and means of subsistence for the large rural population.     

Recent patterns of production for the main cereal grains: implications for food security in China

China’s large population and deteriorating environment have created great concern related to the sustainability of food production, especially since details related to this topic remain poorly studied. Thus, an integrated analysis of both crop yield and cultivated area is essential for gaining a better understanding of cereal grain production in China and for making corresponding policies designed to achieve food security. In this study, we adopt trend analysis of both provincial yield and cultivated area to assess the subsequent provincial-level cereal production sustainability between 1980 and 2011 with the goal of providing a better understanding of regional agricultural development. The results indicate that while maize shows the most promise for yield improvement, rice and wheat production is experiencing substantial yield stagnation among most provinces across mainland China. In addition, the trends in spatial patterns are prominently different from those of yields. The sizes of the main rice- and wheat-growing areas in China have declined greatly, suggesting that the related production of these cereals should attract more attention from land management planners and farmers. Specifically, the south-eastern coastal provinces have largely failed to sustain both crop yield and area, while the north-eastern provinces have witnessed thriving agricultural production during the last three decades. Moreover, we find that cereal production in China is significantly affected by governmental policies related to the agricultural sector. Thus, this analysis of food production in China will help policymakers to better understand how the potential implications of food security in China may be applicable to countries worldwide.     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入－产出”分析方法,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构,预测了未来不同的气候变化情景下,为使经济发展达到预期目标,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入—产出”分析方法 ,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统 ,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时 ,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构 ,预测了未来不同气候变化情景下 ,为使经济发展达到预期目标 ,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化 ,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系 ,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

Assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources and use,food security,and economic welfare in Iran

Climate change influences the agricultural sector by reducing available water resources, thereby influencing income, consumer and producer surplus, and crop prices. So, it is necessary to have a comprehensive integrated method to measure the effects of these changes on natural resources and social conditions. The present study aims to use the positive mathematical programming method to discover the trend and conditions of groundwater resources, agricultural water use, food security, and economic welfare of the agricultural sector in Iran. To this end, data for the period 2000–2015 was used under four different scenarios of normal climate change, climate change, climate variability, and concurrent climate change The results showed that the mean agricultural water use will amount to 35,103.6, 26,533.8, 35,216, and 26,510.7 million m³ and the mean decline in the reserves of aquifers will amount to 4422.22, 11,165.6, 4438.25, and 11,267.4 million m³ under the scenarios, respectively. With respect to food security, the net farm revenue will be 314,560, 248,753, 315,427, and 248,574 billion IRR, respectively. The mean crop price per ton will reach 905.3, 1141.8, 904, and 1142.8 million IRR, respectively. The mean consumer surplus will be 172,107.7, 166,450, 172,024, and 166,403 billion IRR and the mean producer surplus will be 419,959.2, 395,380, 419,751, and 395,204 billion IRR, respectively. Based on the results, to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on different studied aspects, it is necessary to change policymaking in the water and agricultural sectors, especially regarding the shift from traditional agricultural water allocation to its market-based allocation and to change planting pattern.

     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades

We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.     

Multi-stage evolution of social response to flood/drought in the North China Plain during 1644–1911

How the past human society responded to climatic disasters could provide better understanding on the nature of climate–human–ecosystem interactions and the knowledge of the vulnerability for the society in the context of changing climate. In this paper, the North China Plain in the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) is selected as a typical regional social-ecological system; with historical information kept in official documents, social responsive behavior and measures to flood/drought (e.g., reclamation, disaster relief, migration, revolt) are quantitatively described with proxy indicator time-series. It is found that the dominant responsive strategy altered significantly in different stages: (1) stage of cropland expansion (1644–1720); (2) stage of governmental disaster relief (1721–1780); (3) stage of increasing climate refugees (1781–1860); (4) stage of revolt and emigration (1861–1911). The multi-stage evolution of social response was impacted by various natural and social factors: (1) regional population–food balance and governmental finance were the most important limiting factors; (2) the interaction between the governmental policy and refugees’ behavior in disasters affected the social consequences to a certain extent; (3) decadal-to-multi-decadal climate change would also impact the social response measures, even directly trigger the shift of dominant responsive strategy. This study would be helpful for deeper understanding of social resilience and better responding to climate change and extreme events in the present and future.     

An exploration of the interaction between socio-economic productivity and water withdrawal

The term sustainability invites interest in the main factors that affect the deterioration of natural resources. Different hypotheses have been put forward concerning the relationship between water and its effect on different economic sectors. Several questions can be asked here, for example: Does a higher water withdrawal for one sector mean that this sector is adding more to the GDP or is it a sunk cost (it is the cost that should be ignored compared to the benefit of water withdrawal for an individual economic sector) compared with the benefits to the economy? Do social factors affect water withdrawal more than economic factors or are they both impacting equally? We aim to answer these questions and to shed light on different socio-economic factors that affect water withdrawal in different economic sectors. This study investigates, in depth, the interaction between humans and the environment and can be useful in monitoring the direct effect on water withdrawal from agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and on different national economic variables that act as an indicator for economic development and growth. We used simultaneous equation models in our analysis, both the three-stage least squares and the two-stage least squares to explore the relationships. For more credibility, we run the fixed and random effects of 2SLS. Our results showed the influence of trade openness and economic growth on water withdrawal for different economic sectors, and the effect of an increasing demand for water for non-agricultural purposes, which adds pressure on the agricultural sector and eventually may lead to rising food prices.     

Possible future trade-offs between agriculture, energy production, and biodiversity conservation in North Dakota

In this study, we describe a spatially explicit scenario analysis of global change effects on the potential future trade-offs and conflicts between agriculture, energy generation, and grassland and wetland conservation in North Dakota (ND), USA. Integrated scenarios combining global policy, oil security, and climate change were applied to North Dakota using a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell. Spatial data describing climate changes and grassland, wetland, cropland, and energy distributions were used to characterize the geographical environment. The final multi-criteria framework examined the potential trade-offs between climate change, agricultural expansion, and energy generation resulting from global change scenarios on one hand, and the current footprint of wetlands and grasslands for six regions of ND that capture the major climate gradients and differences in land use. The results suggest that the tension between regional climate changes that may limit agricultural expansion, and global changes in food and energy security and commodity prices that favor agricultural expansion, may focus a zone of potential pressure on grasslands and wetland conversion in central ND and the Prairie Pothole Region. The balance between conservation programs, commodity prices, and land parcel productivity may determine grassland conversion, while wetland outcomes may almost totally depend upon regional climate change.     

Climate trends and impacts on crop production in the Koshi River basin of Nepal

Understanding crop responses to climate is essential to cope with anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation. We investigated the climate–crop yield relationship and the impact of historical climate on yields of rice, maize and wheat in the Koshi basin of Nepal. The results show significant impact of growing season temperature and precipitation on crop production in the region. Rice, maize and wheat cultivated at altitudes below 1,100, 1,350 and 1,700 m amsl (above mean sea level), respectively, suffer from stress due to higher temperatures particularly during flowering and yield formation stages. Responses of crop yields to a unitary increment in growing season mean temperature vary from ?6 to 16 %, ?4 to 11 % and ?12 to 3 % for rice, maize and wheat, respectively, depending on the location and elevation in the basin. In most parts of the basin, we observe warming trends in growing season mean temperatures of rice, maize and wheat over the last few decades with clear evidence of negative impacts on yields. However, at some high-elevation areas, positive impacts of warming are also observed on rice and maize yields. If the observed trends in temperature continue in future, the impact is likely to be mostly negative on crop production in the basin. However, crop production may gain from the warming at relatively higher altitudes provided other conditions, e.g., water availability, soil fertility, are favorable.     

Estimation of emission reduction potential in China’s industrial sector

The industrial sector is usually the largest economy sector for carbon emissions in many countries, which made it the sector with greatest potential for carbon reduction although the process duration might be very long. Studying the potential of industrial emission reduction has great significance in estimating the carbon emission peak of China on the one hand, and adjusting its strategy in international climate change negotiations. By employing the economic accounting method, this article estimates the emission reduction potential of China’s Industrial sector for the period of 2010–2050. It reveals that, taking 2030 as the year when the emission reaches the peak, the total reduction can be 8.38 billion tons (bts) for the period of 2010–2030, with 3.12 bts from structural reduction while 5.26 bts from intensity reduction. Afterwards, reduction will continue with a total amount of 6.59 bts for the period of 2030–2050, where the structural reduction accounts for 2.47 bts, and intensity reduction 4.115 bts. If both industrial and energy consumption structures are improved during the above period, the reduction potential can be even greater, e.g. the emission peak can arrive five years earlier (in the year of 2025) and the peak value can decline by about 8% as compared to the original estimation. Reviewing the trajectory of emission changes in developed countries indicates that the industry sector can contribute to the overall reduction targets through the dual wheels of structural reduction and intensity reduction, even beyond the emission peak. This article concludes with the following policy suggestions. (1) Our estimation on the emission peak of the industrial sector suggests that China should avoid any commitment earlier than 2030 on the timeline of the overall emission peak; (2) the great potential of industrial emission reduction can improve the situation of China in climate change negotiation, where the intensity reduction can serve as an important policy option. (3) Reduction potential can be further enhanced through technology advancement, which requires furthering of market oriented reforms and improvement of institutional design. (4) To secure the reduction effects of the industrial structure adjustment, the balanced development among different regions should be encouraged in order to avoid the reverse adjustment caused by industrial transferring. (5) International cooperation promoting the application and development of industrial emission reduction technologies, including carbon capture, utilization and storage, should be encouraged.     

The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.     

Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.     

2011年长江中下游春旱的气候特征分析

利用我国高分辨率逐日降水资料，从降水量、无降水日数、连续无降水日数、气象干旱指数（CI）等指标对2011年春季长江中下游地区发生的气象干旱进行了分析评估。结果表明，2011年春季长江中下游地区降水量为近60 a同期最少，无降水日数、气象干旱影响范围均为近60 a同期最大，重度以上气象干旱日数为近几十年来同期罕见。此次严重气象干旱具有强度强、持续时间长、干旱范围广、影响程度重等特点，为近60 a来长江中下游地区春季发生的最严重的气象干旱，对水资源、水产养殖业、农业生产等造成了重大影响。还从大气环流、水汽输送角度对气象干旱的成因进行了初步分析，认为2011年冬春季北方冷空气势力强大，向南扩张明显，南方热带对流系统不活跃，向长江中下游地区水汽输送弱，是造成此次气象干旱的主要原因     

A “toad’s eye” view of drought: regional socio-natural vulnerability and responses in 2002 in Northwest Colorado

Drought is a part of the normal climate variability and the life and livelihoods of the Western United States. However, drought can also be a high impact or extreme event in some cases, such as the exceptional 2002 drought that had deleterious impacts across the Western United States. Studies of long-term climate variability along with climate change projections indicate that the Western United States should expect much more severe and extended drought episodes than experienced over the last century when most modern water law and policies were developed, such as the 1922 Colorado River Compact. This paper will discuss research examining regional socio-natural climate vulnerability and adaptive response capacities to the 2002 drought in the Yampa–White Basins region of Colorado across sectors and will demonstrate how a bottom-up or “toad’s eye” approach to understanding drought is paramount to complement top-down, instrumental data-driven analyses of drought. The results of empirical observations through interviews and participant observation in combination with analysis of drought indicators will be presented. Implications for adaptation research and planning for climate variability and change will be discussed.     

Subregional differences in Australian climate risk perceptions: coastal versus agricultural areas of the Hunter Valley,NSW

‘Environmental cognitive stress’ a hybrid model combining environmental stress and cognitive determinants of pro-environmental behavior is explored among Australians living in contrasting ‘micro’ climates in the same river catchment system. Peoples’ climate risk perceptions are mediated by their connections to local environment, observations of environmental change and personal weather experiences. A longitudinal study randomly sampled 1,162 Hunter Valley coastal and rural residents in New South Wales. Telephone interviewers (2008) recruited lakeside homeowners ‘at risk’ of sea level rise, nearby ‘control’ residents and a comparable farming area group. Follow-up interviews (2011) located 81.5 % of the original sample. Fifty-six items based on the model asked about climate change observations, concerns, impacts and actions. Statistically significant rural–suburban and time differences were found. The rural sample was attuned to conditions affecting agricultural productivity: They worried about drought and heat, saw trees dying and changes to seasons and natural rhythms. They anticipate the impact of water scarcity, conserve water and value protecting plants and animals. Compared to higher elevation residents, lake dwellers observed marine life loss, worry about sea level rise and predict the decline of property values. Across time, all groups’ perceptions of warming indicators declined. Concerns and impacts were high and generally stayed high, as did actions related to energy use. No differences emerged in beliefs about climate warming. Climate change observations, along with concerns and actions, have important implications for the environmental cognitive stress model. Overall, dynamic changes in residents’ understandings are related to a changing policy environment, the vicissitudes of climate debates and weather experiences, including extreme swings from inundation to drought.     

Usefulness and uses of climate forecasts for agricultural extension in South Carolina,USA

Farmers and extensionists can use forecasts about agro-climatic conditions to reduce risks of agricultural production. Eighteen extension agents, researchers, consultants, and farmers provided feedback about decision support tools that utilize such forecasts during focus groups that were conducted in Florence, South Carolina on January 14, 2011. Climate Risk and County Yield Database were the tools most selected as potentially useful for agricultural extension in South Carolina. An irrigation scheduler was the most frequently mentioned tool to be developed. Also, a survey of Clemson University’s extension personnel was conducted in January and February 2011 to assess interest of South Carolina’s growers and producers in using climate forecasts, eleven potential uses of climate forecasts by extension’s clientele, and potential usefulness to extensionists of twelve specific forecasts. Clemson’s extensionists represent approximately 97 % of the state’s agricultural extensionists. They are more likely than not to agree that growers and producers are interested in using climate forecasts. Most of the state’s extension personnel also think that farmers could use a climate forecast to improve irrigation management and planting schedules. A majority of the state’s extensionists thinks that a freeze alert could be useful to them and the proportion that thinks the forecast could be useful exceeds the proportion that thinks any other forecast could be useful. Most extensionists also think that a forecast of plant moisture stress could be useful to help farmers schedule irrigation. The key survey results are remarkably similar to those from surveys of extension personnel at North Carolina State University in early 2009 and University of Florida in late 2004.