Influence of global warming on coastal infrastructural instability

The increasing infrastructure instability is an important issue in relation to the influences of global climate change in urban areas. A serious issue pertaining to this is the dual nature of damage triggered by events combined with climate change and natural hazards. For example, catastrophic damage could result from the combination of global warming with a great earthquake, which is a worst-case scenario. Although this worst-case scenario has rarely occurred and presents a low probability of occurrence, countermeasures must be prepared in advance based on an appropriate response and adaptation strategies. After an overview of possible infrastructural instabilities caused by global warming, methodologies are proposed placing emphasis on the increasing probability of infrastructural instability triggered by natural hazards resulting from groundwater-level (GWL) variations. These effects are expected to be particularly serious in coastal regions because of the influence of the rising sea level resulting from global warming. The influence of sea-level rises (SLR) will become apparent along with land subsidence because groundwater abstraction will become severe in coastal regions. Additionally, the probability of earthquake liquefaction increases if GWL rises in accompaniment with SLR. Using case histories, we examined the possible occurrence of these natural hazards as a result of global warming. Finally, possible countermeasures and adaptation strategies for reducing and mitigating infrastructure damage accelerated by global warming are described for each case in specific regions. In particular, special attention should be paid to adaptation strategies in coastal lowlands, which particularly suffer from the effects of land subsidence.     

Physical basis of coastal adaptation on tropical small islands

Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010–2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from ?0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.     

Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

Sound, cost efficient management strategies in developed coastal zones can be reinforced by a thorough understanding of risks associated with the combination of anthropogenic and natural drivers of change. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in the Tunisian coastal zone of the Gulf of Gabes. It is based on the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques and Geographic Information Systems and is designed to support the development and prioritization of adaptation strategies. The RRA focuses on sea-level rise and storm surge flooding impacts for human and natural systems, i.e., beaches, wetlands, urban areas, agricultural areas, and terrestrial ecosystems. Results suggest that for both of the studied climate change impacts, i.e., sea-level rise and storm surge flooding, the area potentially exposed is limited to a narrow, low elevation region adjacent to the shoreline. However, the exposed areas showed a high relative risk score, obtained by the integration of exposure and susceptibility factors. Beaches have the lowest relative risk scores, while wetlands and terrestrial ecosystems have the higher relative risk scores. The final outputs of the analysis (i.e., exposure, susceptibility, and risk maps) can support end-users in the establishment of relative priorities for intervention and in the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities, thus providing a basis for coastal zoning and land-use planning.     

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.     

大城市应对气候变化的可持续发展研究——以上海为例

在全球气候变化背景下,社会城镇规划与自然气候变化之间的关系越发密切,城镇规划体系需要纳入气候变化的影响并考虑适应气候变化的策略。首先以发达国家及世界著名大城市为参考,对美国、德国和日本在应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展规划方面的成功经验和实践措施分别进行了综述和提炼;然后,以上海为例,对照分析了我国大城市在城镇化过程中面临的气候变化挑战及存在的脆弱性,包括城镇发展规划与气候环境的相容性考虑不够、城镇化过程对气候环境的影响缺乏充分论证、城镇基础设施抵御气象灾害的能力较低、气候变化对城镇人体健康的影响未给予高度关注等;最后,指出了我国大城市应对气候变化的城镇可持续发展思路及重点方向,即充分考虑区域气候容量、大力构建生态绿色通风廊道;深入开展城镇功能布局的气候可行性论证和气象灾害风险评估;加强城市气候变化研究和实验,不断更新城市规划设计参数和标准规范;加大对脆弱人群和外来常住人口生命安全和人体健康监测预警;积极完善城镇化适应气候变化的机制等,以期为城镇发展体系的编制和应用提供参考和借鉴。     

Integrating regional perceptions into climate change adaptation: a transdisciplinary case study from Germany’s North Sea Coast

Coastal protection strategies increasingly have to take into account the effects of climate change. At present, engineering and natural science models that assess the impact of global climatic transformations on regional coastal zones and their protection structures remain rather detached from the knowledge and insights of regional practitioners. The main thesis of this contribution, using a case study from the North Sea Coast of Germany, is that innovative coastal protection requires not only interdisciplinary research but transdisciplinary collaboration in order to develop a viable adaptation strategy. The investigation of the social dimension of climate change and coastal protection strategies, using qualitative interviews with organized regional stakeholders, climate researchers and coastal engineers, as well as a representative public survey, contributes to a comprehensive understanding of regional perceptions with respect to climate change and coastal protection.     

Community-based adaptation in low-lying islands in the Philippines: challenges and lessons learned

Community-based adaptation (CBA) seeks to address climate risks and socio-economic drivers of vulnerability simultaneously. However, as CBA activities appear very similar to standard development work, difficulties in identifying good practices arise. To clarify the role of CBA, this study elucidated how climate change can impact pre-existing development problems by investigating the experiences of four low-lying island communities in central Philippines. The islands currently suffer from frequent and extreme tidal flooding (following an earthquake-induced land subsidence in 2013, with a magnitude that is broadly similar to sea-level rise projections under a 1.5 to 2 °C global warming scenario), and endured a dry spell in 2016. The study also identified various publicly and privately initiated adaptation strategies, and evaluated their resilience against actual biophysical events. The study conducted focus group discussions with local leaders and in-depth interviews with government officials and residents in March 2016. Results show that tidal flooding impacted almost all aspects of daily life on the islands, while the dry spell completely depleted their limited water supplies. The strategies implemented by governments and NGOs (e.g., seawalls, rainwater collectors) were found to be inadequate in preventing tidal flooding and compensating for the dry spell. Also, communities used coral stones and plastic waste for raising the floors of their homes, which have an erosive effect on their capacity to adapt in the long term. Lack of community participation in publicly initiated projects and lack of adaptation funding for community-based strategies were the greatest obstacles to implementing climate-resilient solutions.     

Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland,Australia

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.     

Coastal management, climate change adaptation and sustainability in small coastal communities: leatherback turtles and beach loss

Beaches are frequently subjected to erosion and accretion that are influenced by coastal development interventions and natural variations due to storms and changes in river flow. Climate change may also exacerbate beach erosion and accretion. Natural scientists are concerned with the sustainability of species dependent on the beach ecosystem. Policymakers are pre-occupied with the economic sustainability of coastal communities should species decline and prolonged beach loss occur. The aim of this paper is to explore the linkage between science and policy by reporting the findings of a study of coastal change impacts on leatherback turtle nesting and analysing the socio-economic and adaptation implications of these changes for coastal communities. Grande Riviere, Trinidad, was used as a case study. Primary fieldwork investigated unsustainable coastal management practices. A questionnaire was administered to examine livelihoods, including ecotourism based on leatherback turtle nesting, and knowledge and awareness of climate change. One key finding of the study was that the community’s livelihoods were natural resources dependent, and that natural beach dynamics and unsustainable coastal management practices posed major threats to natural resource and economic sustainability. Another key finding was that, despite these impacts, community knowledge and awareness of climate change in general was low, and there was a perception of state responsibility for climate change adaptation. The research findings have global applicability for coastal communities at risk of exposure and that are highly vulnerable to natural resources damage arising from anthropogenic stress and potential climate change. These communities require policy reforms to strengthen current coastal management practices and adaptation responses aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability.     

Using sustainability science to analyse social–ecological restoration in NE Japan after the great earthquake and tsunami of 2011

In the wake of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that devastated part of northeastern Japan in March 2011, proposals for reconstruction and rehabilitation are still subjects of debate. The claim by many climate scientists that large-scale extreme events can be expected in the future, with similar catastrophic effects in coastal areas, suggests the need for long-term planning that aims at building resilience, the ability for socio-ecological systems to withstand and recover quickly from natural disasters, and continue to develop. We hypothesize that ecosystems and socio-economic resilience will provide affected communities with flexible barriers against future disasters and greater protection in the long run than will hard/engineering solutions such as high seawalls aimed at ensuring only physical security. Building social/ecological resilience in the Tohoku region will increase general security and is anticipated also to contribute to an enhanced quality of life now and for generations to come. This paper argues that building resilience in the affected area requires a transformation to sustainable agriculture, forestry and fisheries and we describe how the links between satoyama and satoumi, traditional rural territorial and coastal landscapes in Japan, can contribute to this revitalization and to strengthening the relationship between local residents and the landscape in the affected communities. Decision makers at local, regional and national levels need to take a holistic approach based on sustainability science to understand the inter-relationships between these landscapes and ecosystems to develop a robust rebuilding plan for the affected communities. Moreover, this paper suggests that building resilient communities in Japan that demonstrate the strategic benefits of satoyama and satoumi linkages can be a model for building resilient rural and urban communities throughout the world.     

Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change

The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation’s health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan.     

Beyond 1.5 °C: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for Caribbean Small Island Developing States

Global warming of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and a commensurate increase in global greenhouse gas emissions pose an unprecedented danger to human settlements, livelihoods and the sustainable development of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), yet these challenges present tremendous opportunities to rethink development pathways. The paper has two objectives. One is to critically review present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies employed by the state, private sector, non-governmental organisations, community-based organisations and households. The other is to discuss vulnerabilities and identify adaptation and resiliency strategies which are considered most applicable beyond the 1.5 °C limit. The Caribbean Region is the focus of the paper. A key finding of the paper is that temperature change above the 1.5 °C limit set by the Paris Conference of the Parties will make the natural and human systems of SIDS even more highly vulnerable than they are already. Another finding is that Caribbean states have implemented various innovative climate change adaptation strategies, but their relevance should the 1.5 °C target be exceeded, requires further exploration. The paper is useful to policymakers, decision-makers and finance agencies in search of practical solutions to avert the implications for Caribbean settlements, economies and ecosystems should the temperature warming exceed 1.5 °C.     

An ecohydrological adaptive approach to a salt lake in the semiarid grasslands of Argentina: future management perspectives

Past extreme hydrological events, future climate change scenarios and approaches for lake management were studied in the Argentinean Pampa. Anthropogenic climate change will impact water bodies and create enormous challenges for water management. Adaptation strategies are needed urgently to deal with the uncertainties originated by climate change on inland or coastal basins. Only a few studies have addressed practical strategies to mitigate global change impacts on lakes and practically none in South America. The purpose of this work was to discuss management options and seek better adaptive alternatives for the nature reserve Lake Chasicó, and to propose future management experiments and actions at a regional level. The ecohydrological approach is likely to increase the ecological resilience of the lake, dampen climate-driven hydrological variations and reduce eutrophication problems. Future projects should include wetland creation, fish management, water quality control, engineering work studies and education programs. Ecohydrology as an integrative natural science should be considered as a water management strategy to build ecological resilience into water bodies. The building of social-ecological resilience is also crucial for the stability of coupled human-ecological systems. The integration of natural and social sciences into sustainability approaches represents a robust strategy for adapting to climate change.     

多重压力下重点生态功能区农户的生计适应性研究——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

重点生态功能区对维护国家和区域生态安全至关重要,农户作为该区最主要的经济活动主体和最基本的生态环境保护单元,其对生计压力的适应性直接关系到重点生态功能区主体功能的发挥。本文以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南黄河水源补给区为例,基于入户调查数据,分析了农户的生计压力、适应能力及适应策略,并利用多元logistic回归模型探明了影响适应策略选择的关键因素。结果表明:①甘南黄河水源补给区有近90%的农户遭受多重生计压力的冲击,其中,“自然+社会+经济”型压力是该区农户面临最多的生计压力组合。②经济示范区农户的适应能力最高,恢复治理区次之,重点保护区最低;遭受“自然+社会”型压力冲击的农户适应能力最高,遭受“自然+社会+经济+政策”型压力冲击的农户适应能力最低。③甘南黄河水源补给区有87.45%的农户采取多种适应策略来应对生计压力,其中,选择“扩张+援助+收缩”型适应策略的农户占比最大。④自然资本、人力资本、社会资本、自然压力的严重程度和生计压力的多样化程度是影响适应策略的关键因素。鉴于此,政府应加大生态环境保护力度,拓宽农户增收渠道,建立多元化信贷机制,加强偏远地区基础设施建设,完善社会保障体系,提高农户在面临生计压力时的适应能力,促进生计可持续发展。     

Socio-economic vulnerability of the megacity of Shanghai (China) to sea-level rise and associated storm surges

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to many coastal areas and will likely have important impacts on socio-economic development in those regions. Located on the eastern coast in China, the megacity of Shanghai is particularly vulnerable to SLR and associated storm surge risks. Using the municipality of Shanghai as a case study, the possible impacts of flooding risks caused by SLR and associated storm surges on socio-economic development in the region were analysed by a Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC) conceptual model. The projections of flooding risk in the study area were simulated by MIKE21 (a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model) for the three time periods of 2030, 2050 and 2100. An index system for vulnerability assessment was devised, in which flooding depth, density of population, GDP per capita, GDP per unit land, loss rate under flooding and fiscal revenue were selected as the key indicators. A quantitative spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating and then grading the vulnerability index. The results showed that in the 2030 projection, 99.3 % of the areas show no vulnerability to SLR and associated storm surges under the present infrastructure. By 2050, the areas with low, moderate and high vulnerabilities change significantly to 5.3, 8.0 and 23.9 %, respectively, while by 2100, the equivalent figures are 12.9, 6.3 and 30.7 %. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology and the results from this study could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the socio-economic vulnerability of other similar coastal regions undergoing the impacts of SLR and associated storm surges. Based on the results of this study, mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, which include the controlling the rate of land subsidence, the reinforcement of coastal defence systems and the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning.     

Planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk: a case study from the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia

Australian coastal areas have been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change, with major projected impacts including sea level rise, extreme weather events, increased erosion, and a change in coastal processes and wave patterns. Such impacts would cause coastal settlements and ecosystems to face increasingly uncertain conditions. In response to increased risk, effective coastal management at local and regional scales is needed, with governing bodies providing significant leadership. This research explores the challenges of applying effective adaptation responses to projected climate change in vulnerable coastal systems on the South Coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia. In particular, the option of planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk is critically examined, with the incorporation of learning from Byron Bay, NSW. A mixed methods approach was undertaken by integrating documentary interrogation with the analysis of interview responses from key coastal managers. It was determined that despite the increase in adaptation planning and development of management strategy options to manage sea level rise on the Fleurieu Peninsula, there is a lack of implementation of adaptation responses. In addition, planning seems to focus largely on the implications of sea level rise on infrastructure, often overlooking other risks and possible ecological impacts. Inconsistencies in governance are reflected at all levels, indicating a need for comprehensive improvements to ensure the incorporation of appropriate risk responses into planning decisions.     

Economic,equitable, and affordable adaptations to protect coastal settlements against storm surge inundation

The distribution of risk of coastal inundation, and the potential benefits of adapting to protect against inundation, vary greatly both within and between coastal communities. This diversity is a result of physical factors, such as the risk of storm surge, sea level rise projections, and the topography of the landscape, as well as socio-economic factors, such as the level of development, and the capacity within the community to adapt. Despite this strong local variation, various communities share common characteristics that constrain or enable different adaptation options in different situations. Understanding these drivers is likely to be important in engaging coastal communities in the discussion around adaptation and may provide new insights into which adaptation options are suitable for each of our at-risk coastal communities. We performed a property-level analysis of 6 suburb-sized case studies distributed along the coast of Queensland, Australia. We assessed the potential economic costs of inundation events now and in the future under sea level rise projections, and the potential avoided costs following adaptation to protect against inundation. We went beyond this to estimate the distribution of risk in each community and compared the potential costs of adaptation with the capacity of the community to pay for their implementation. We used these insights to propose a typology of coastal communities based on their exposure to total inundation risk, the distribution of that risk within the community, and their capacity to adapt.     

长三角地区能源消费与区域发展相互关系及其影响因素

以长三角地区上海、江苏和浙江3省市为研究对象，运用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型（VEC）和Granger因果检验等方法分析能源消费与经济发展的相互关系，并利用LMDI方法对3省市1995~2007年的能源强度进行分解分析，得到能源消费与区域发展关系的影响因素。结果表明：近年来长三角能源消费形势严峻，并较多地受到产业结构调整的影响。上海和江苏的能源消费在一定程度上拉动了经济发展，但是随着产业结构的调整，上海工业结构的调整促进了能源强度降低，而江苏却正好相反。近年来，浙江省的经济发展对能源消费的影响比较显著，随着该省工业规模扩大，能源强度有所升高，但是其产业结构的调整有利于降低能源强度。     

Finding the Teachable Moment: An Analysis of Information-Seeking Behavior on Global Warming Related Websites during the Release of The Day After Tomorrow

This paper investigates how the mass media may influence information-seeking behavior through an analysis of how the release of the movie The Day After Tomorrow, a fictional depiction of global warming causing catastrophic natural disasters, changed the information-seeking behavior of the public on global warming related websites. A “teachable moment” of elevated information-seeking activity was found to extend from 10 days before the release date of The Day After Tomorrow to 19 days after the movie release date. Using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average modeling, a significant positive correlation was found between changes in media coverage of The Day After Tomorrow and changes in information-seeking activity, although the correlation did not support hypothesized time lags. These results are discussed in terms of information-seeking models, and new research directions are proposed to link agenda-setting research with the information-seeking literature.     

海平面上升对长江三角洲地区的影响评价研究

气候变暖导致的全球性海平面加速上升严重威胁着沿海国家和地区的持续发展。作为世界五大三角洲之一的长江三角洲及其邻近地区，其地势低平，人口稠密，经济发达，因而所受海平观上升的威胁更加严重。根据ＩＰＣＣ拟定的方案，对于未来海平面另速上升所造成的沿海地区脆弱性影响评价，取海平面上升３０、６５和１００ｃｍ三种情况进行研究，本地区内岸段是我国海岸侵蚀最为严重的岸段。长江口的潮水上溯使盐水入侵、造成水质恶化，海