Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Exploring Chemical Variables in Ligustrum lucidum Ait. F. Tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in Relation to Air Pollutants and Environmental Conditions

Ligustrum lucidum Ait. f. tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in relation to atmospheric pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina. The study area receives regional pollutants and was categorized taking into account traffic level, industrial density, type of industry, location of the sample point in relation to the street corner, treeless condition, and topographic level. Dried weight/fresh weight ratio (DW/FW) and specific leaf area (SLA) were calculated, and concentrations of chlorophylls, carotenoids, total sulfur, soluble proteins, malondialdehyde (MDA), and hydroperoxy conjugated dienes (HPCD) were determined in leaf samples. Sulfur content correlates positively with traffic density and SLA correlates negatively with some combinations of the categorical variables; MDA correlates positively with topographic level and total protein concentration correlates negatively with treeless condition. On the basis of our results, traffic, location of trees, type of industry, situation of a tree with respect to others, and topographic level are the environmental variables to bear in mind when selecting analogous sampling points in a passive monitoring program. An approximation to predict tree injury may be obtained by measuring DW/FW ratio, proteins, pigments, HPCD, and MDA as they are responsible for the major variability of data.     

脆弱生态环境耦合下的贫困地区可持续发展研究

研究表明，中国贫困地区的分布与脆弱生态环境的分布存在一种地理空间意义上的耦合，这种耦合是一种非良性的耦合，存在着诸多问题并我着当地的社会经济发展，要改变这一现状，实现区域社会经济可持续发展，必须革新现有的贫困人口生存方式和社会经济发展模式，据此，本文提出了实现贫困地区社会经济可持续发展的战略措施应是依托现有的资源优势，推广生态农业技术，发展绿色食品和开展生态旅游。     

草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识的调查研究

根据环境意识结构．设计了旅游管理部门环境意识调查问卷。其主要的指标体系包括：旅游环境知识水平、旅游环境态度、旅游环境评价和旅游环境行为四个方面。对指标体系各部分之间以及每一指标部分的每一题目之间的相对重要性进行权重的确定．而且对各部分的每道题目的各个选项予以赋分。基于权重和赋分．结合调查问卷的实际情况，设计了指标体系各部分评价模型和环境意识总体评价模型。以此来计算草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识水平的综合得分。经过分析得知，旅游管理部门环境意识模式是“环境知识制约型”模式。     

三江平原地貌因子及其主要环境地质问题

地貌因子有其不可替代的作用和功能,是决定环境的主要因子,是生态地质环境中最积极最活跃的主导支力条件;是生态平衡的重中之重;是生态地质环境的基础,并影响其它因子或成份.如地貌因子或成份发生了变化,其它因子或成份就会发生一系列连锁反应;地貌因子发生变化或失去平衡,其它因子也会发生变化或失去平衡.文本论述了三江平原地貌特征,详细地分析了地貌的作用,阐明了有关地貌的主要环境地质问题.     

The evolution of sustainability

Six separate but related strains of thought have emerged prominently since 1950 in discussions of such phenomena as the interrelationships among rates of population growth, resource use, and pressure on the environment. They are the ecological/carrying capacity root, the resources/environment root, the biosphere root, the critique of technology root, the no growth/slow growth root, and the ecodevelopment root.Each of these strains of thought was fully developed before the word sustainable itself was used. Many of the roots are based on fundamentally opposing assessments of the future of mankind. Many of the roots, such as the ecology/carrying capacity root, are based on physical concepts, and they exclude normative values. Others, such as the ecodevelopment root, include such values as equity, broad participation in governance, and decentralized government.When the word sustainability was first used in 1972 in the context of man's future, in a British book,Blueprint for Survival, normative concepts were prominent. This continued to be the case when the word was first used in 1974 in the United States to justify a no growth economy.Sustainability was first used in a United Nations document in 1978. Normative concepts, encapsulated in the term ecodevelopment, were prominent in the United Nations publications.After about 1978, the term sustainability began to be used not only in technological articles and reports but also in policy documents culminating in the use of the term in the report of the summit meeting of the Group of Seven in 1989.The roots of the term sustainability are so deeply embedded in fundamentally different concepts, each of which has valid claims to validity, that a search for a single definition seems futile. The existence of multiple meaning is tolerable if each analyst describes clearly what he means by sustainability.     

不同低碳氮比废水中好氧颗粒污泥的长期运行稳定性

为了研究好氧颗粒污泥系统处理低碳氮比废水的长期运行稳定性,采用低碳氮比（C/N）条件下逐步增加碳氮负荷的进水方法,分别在反应器A和B中接种好氧颗粒污泥,考察其长期运行过程中的理化性质、处理性能及应对冲击负荷的稳定性.其中A反应器的碳氮比一直维持在2,而B则由4逐步降至2.结果表明,在4℃存储30d的好氧颗粒污泥,经过25d的培养,其活性基本恢复,A、B反应器化学需氧量（COD）和氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）的去除效率均达到90%以上.在其后的稳定阶段,B反应器COD和NH₄⁺-N去除率达到90%以上,实现了完全硝化;而A反应器COD去除率仅80%左右,虽然NH₄⁺-N去除率最终也达到90%以上,但仅实现短程硝化.在冲击负荷阶段,A和B反应器COD去除率仍维持在80%以上,但是NH₄⁺-N去除受到很大冲击.A反应器NH₄⁺-N去除效率恶化,B反应器仅实现了部分硝化.整个运行过程,好氧颗粒污泥的物理性质受到的影响不大,A和B反应器的污泥容积指数（SVI₃₀）分别维持在60 mL ·g^-1和75 mL ·g^-1左右,混合液悬浮固体（MLSS）在5g ·L^-1和3.7g ·L^-1左右.颗粒污泥微生物群落分析表明,B反应器相对于A反应器丰富度和多样性更高.同时B反应器具有更高丰度的Zoogloea属,在颗粒中能产生更多的胞外蛋白促使颗粒结构更稳定,保证系统的长期稳定运行.以上结果表明,与C/N为2的好氧颗粒污泥系统相比,C/N为4的系统脱碳硝化效果好,抗冲击负荷能力强,更有利于颗粒污泥的长期稳定运行.     

基于LOADEST和数字滤波的水源地基流氮素输出定量方法应用实例

地表直接径流和基流均是流域非点源氮/磷养分输出的重要水文途径.科学认识和定量模拟基流氮/磷养分输出对于准确解析水源地水体非点源污染来源至关重要.基于Load Estimator模型和数字滤波算法,建立了定量水源地基流氮素输出的方法体系.以浙江省珊溪水源地的玉泉溪流域为例,利用玉泉溪2010-01—2013-12期间逐月总氮(TN)水质监测数据和逐日流量数据,展示了该方法的计算过程.结果表明,本文建立的水源地基流氮素输出定量方法结果合理,模拟精度高,决定系数和纳什系数分别为0.83和0.80;玉泉溪流域2010—2013年TN负荷量为141.21～274.68 t·a~(-1),平均208.63 t·a~(-1),年基流TN负荷量为84.39～168.68 t·a~(-1),平均127.69 t·a~(-1);基流对玉泉溪年均TN负荷量贡献率高达60%以上,流域基流养分输出对地表水体的污染应引起足够重视.     

农闲期城郊农田灌溉水中典型污染物含量与评价——以西北江三角洲为例

摸查了农田灌溉系统水环境经农（夏）闲期降水等外部强干预调理后的环境污染物含量——该值理论上是环境自净作用之后的最不利值,对农田灌溉系统水环境进行水质评价,探究其对农田土壤质量的潜在污染风险.于2019年6月中旬—7月下旬（降雨集中期）,分别在西北江三角洲城市（清远市、佛山市和江门市）实验基地周边筛选研究区,并在雨后对有覆水的水源区域、灌渠、蓄水池和田间水等采集上覆水,共采得水样27×2份,对其pH值、悬浮物（SS）、矿化度、总磷（TP）、氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）、Cd、As、Pb、Cu和Zn的含量进行检测;对各研究区pH值、SS的成因和影响,矿化度的等级,重金属均值分布等进行分析;对全样品TP、NH₄⁺-N、重金属含量进行Pearson相关性分析和描述性特征分析;通过单因子水质标识指数P_i和综合水质标识指数P分别对各采样点、各构成项目和各研究区进行水质评价.研究发现雨后农田灌溉系统水环境构成复杂,物质呈无显著性差异的迁移,灌溉沿程上覆水中大部分物质可能处于动态平衡,受局部环境影响变小,TP、NH₄⁺-N和重金属等迁移物质主要还是灌溉水体中原有的,受外力驱动扰动后在水动力作用下可能以氮磷结合形态沿灌溉系统发生远距离迁移;使用河流水质标识指数法评价农田灌溉系统水环境,发现该法可以刻画局部灌溉的水质态势,对农田灌溉系统水环境的含量特征评价做出科学、合理的解释,也可以做出综合性定量评价.虽然灌溉水系统结构差异较大,但是从整体上可以初步得出农闲期西北江三角洲农田灌溉水的灌溉风险不高的结论,总体综合水质评价级别为Ⅰ类~Ⅱ类,达到水环境功能区的使用要求.     

特殊区域地表水环境背景值表征技术方法研究与应用

选取黑龙江省源头水保护区作为研究对象,根据DEM数据对保护区内随机布设的水质监测点控制单元进行划分并提取单元内的相关指标建立监测点背景特性量化模型,基于量化结果提出地表水环境背景值监测方案,建立背景值数据库.选取研究区自然属性指标与空间属性指标,以空间叠置技术与聚类分析方法对研究区地表水进行背景值分区,最终将黑龙江省分为六大地表水水质背景值地理分区,并计算了各分区地表水环境背景值表征范围.表征范围显示：依据现行标准进行水质评价,保护区内水质背景值已超出Ⅱ类水质标准限值.因此,基于水质背景值研究成果提出了考虑背景值影响下的水环境质量评价方法,并将方法应用于研究区,结果表明方法切实可行且优于单因子评价法.研究成果可为区域制定背景值影响下的水环境评价方法提供科学的数据支撑与理论依据.