Population Ageing and Sustainable Development Research in China

According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.     

A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.     

The importance of different forms of Pb on diminishing biological activities in a calcareous soil

In this experimental study, we evaluated the effect of different lead (Pb) fractions on biological properties in soil spiked with 0, 600, 1200 and 1800 mg kg^?1 Pb, during a 90-day incubation period at 25?28°C. Different Pb fractions were measured by sequential extraction at days 1 and 90 after soil treatment. Diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA)-extractable Pb and soil biological properties at days 1, 5, 15, 45 and 90 were measured. The concentration of Pb in soluble and exchangeable fractions was very high at day 1, but it showed remarkable transfer into carbonate and residual fractions by day 90. Substrate-induced respiration, basal respiration, acid and alkaline phosphatases, microbial populations (bacterial, fungal and actinomycetes) and biomass carbon decreased significantly with soil contamination compared with the control. With Pb ageing, these biological properties increased. Metabolic quotient (qCO₂) increased significantly compared with the control with increasing Pb concentration. The toxicity of various forms of Pb for the biological status of the soil was in the following order: KNO₃ extractable>NaOH extractable>EDTA extractable>HNO ₃ extractable>total content Pb. Thus, the bioavailable fractions are better indicators of Pb pollution in soils.     

Special needs hurricane shelters and the ageing population: development of a methodology and a case study application

Recent experience of hurricanes, particularly in the southeast United States, has heightened awareness of the multifaceted nature of and the challenges to effective disaster relief planning. One key element of this planning is providing adequate shelter at secure locations for people who evacuate. Some of these individuals will have ‘special needs’, yet there is little research on the relationship with shelter space. This study designed a geographic information systems‐based network optimisation methodology for the siting of special needs hurricane relief shelters, with a focus on the transportation component. It sought to find new locations for shelters that maximise accessibility by vulnerable populations, given capacity constraints, concentrating on the ageing population. The framework was implemented in a medium‐sized metropolitan statistical area in the state of Florida where data suggest a possible deficit in special needs shelter space. The study analysed options for increasing special needs shelter capacity, while considering potential uncertainties in transportation network availability.     

Performance of Firefighters’ Protective Clothing After Heat Exposure

Heat and mechanical protection properties of 6 fabric combinations commonly used in firefighters’ protective clothing were assessed before and after different heat treatment. It was shown that after heat exposure, the values obtained were generally lower than in the original state. The mechanical properties of the materials were more affected by heat than by heat protective properties. In 2 cases, degradation started before a visible change in the material could be observed, which might be potentially dangerous for the end user who will not realize the alteration of the material.     

生物炭施用及老化对紫色土中抗生素吸附特征的影响

以长江上游低山丘陵区典型坡耕地石灰性紫色土为研究对象,采用更接近实际田间土壤含水量条件的土水比(1 g∶1 mL,并对比1 g∶10 mL),通过批量平衡吸附实验,系统研究了施用新鲜生物炭(0%、1%和5%,质量分数)及田间老化作用(1 a)对3种抗生素(磺胺嘧啶、磺胺二甲基嘧啶和氟苯尼考)在低浓度条件下(0～5 mg·L~(-1))吸附特征的影响规律.结果表明,5种供试土壤中3种抗生素的吸附等温线均能被线性方程和Freundlich模型较好地拟合,且吸附过程中吸附自由能ΔG~θ在-0. 39～11. 53 kJ·mol~(-1)之间,表明对照土及施炭土对3种抗生素的吸附都以物理吸附为主;生物炭的施用能显著增加紫色土对3种抗生素的吸附,其中对K_(ow)值较小的磺胺二甲基嘧啶和氟苯尼考的增加幅度更大,生物炭施用比例越高则提高幅度越大;生物炭新鲜施用时效果更好,而老化后这种增强作用明显减弱.老化施炭土吸附平衡溶液的荧光峰响应强度均低于新鲜施炭土,故新鲜施炭土和老化施炭土的吸附性能差异可能是由于后者的生物炭所含不稳定、可溶解的有机质组分经老化后减少所致.     

浮萍生物炭的老化作用对其性质及对Cd(Ⅱ)吸附的影响

为了研究老化作用对生物炭性质及其对重金属Cd吸附的影响,将浮萍生物炭(LM)分别进行了高温老化(high temperature aging)、冻融循环老化(freeze-thaw cyclesaging)和自然老化(spontaneous aging),通过SEM-EDS、FTIR和吸附实验探究可能存在的变化机理。结果显示:冻融循环老化和高温老化会使生物炭表面O/C分别增加56.98%和90.14%,自然老化比较缓慢,对生物炭O/C影响不大。高温老化使生物炭表面羟基转化为羧基,为羧基化过程;冻融循环老化会使生物炭表面羟基增加,其他官能团基本不变;自然老化条件下,生物炭表面官能团无明显变化。老化作用增强了生物炭对Cd(Ⅱ)的吸附,冻融循环、高温、自然老化作用使LM最大平衡吸附量分别增加了32.67%,83.17%,15.97%。研究表明生物炭的老化会使生物炭本身性质发生变化,但这一变化有利于生物炭对Cd(Ⅱ)的吸附,生物炭在环境中具有较好的稳定性。     

汽车内饰件的自然暴晒试验

本文主要阐述汽车内饰件自然暴晒试验方法：IP／DP箱试验和整车暴晒试验。汽车内部材料的耐用性是影响使用满意程度的极其重要的因素，所以汽车内饰材料需要一个模拟其在具体使用过程中的自然条件的试验，以便观察汽车内饰件在老化过程中的性能变化。     

Nutritional risk factors for older refugees

This study describes risk factors for poor nutrition among older Rwandan refugees. The most important areas of nutritional risk for older refugees are: physical ability and mobility; income and access to land; access to appropriate food rations; meeting basic needs such as water, fuel, shelter; equal access to essential services (food distribution, health services, mills, feeding programmes); and psycho-social trauma. Women and older elderly (> 70 years) are significantly more often in disadvantaged positions, such as having poor socio-economic status, poor health, poor mobility, lower food intake, diminished social status, respect and social network. Older refugees are at higher risk than younger refugees and at higher risk than older people in stable situations. They should remain in good nutritional and general health for their own well-being and that of their dependants. In addition to an adequate diet, a support network seems to be an important preventive aspect.     

Evaluation of risk and cost using an age-dependent unavailability modelling of test and maintenance for standby components

The improvement of safety in the process industries is related to assessment and reduction of risk in a cost-effective manner. This paper addresses the trade-off between risk and cost related to standby safety systems. An age-dependent unavailability model that integrates the effects of the test and maintenance (T&M) activities as well as component ageing is developed and represents the basis for calculating risk. The repair “same-as-new” process is considered regarding the T&M activities. Costs are expressed as a function of the selected risk measure. The time-averaged function of the selected risk measure is obtained from probabilistic safety assessment, i.e. the fault tree analysis. This function is further extended with inclusion of additional parameters related to T&M activities as well as ageing parameters related to component ageing. In that sense, a new model of system unavailability, incorporating component ageing and T&M costs, is presented. The testing strategy is also addressed. Sequential and staggered testings are compared. The developed approach is applied on a standard safety system in nuclear power plant although the method is applicable to standby safety systems that are tested and maintained in other industries as well. The results show that the risk-informed surveillance requirements differ from existing ones in technical specifications, which are deterministically based. Moreover, the presented approach achieves a significant reduction in system unavailability over a relatively small increase of total T&M costs.