A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

湘南地区杂柑天草高接换冠关键技术

天草杂柑的高接换冠的关键技术主要是：注意选择母树并适当修剪；合理采穗和保湿；科学嫁接；嫁接后精心管理．     

基于边介数的省域生态廊道构建方法优化

我国城市建设和生态保护工作均对土地资源有大量需求,二者之间的矛盾在经济优先发展区表现尤为明显.为了有效地改善生态环境,管控土地利用并引导其变化发展,需要建设具备不可替代特征的省域生态廊道.最小累积阻力模型（minimum cumulative resistance,MCR）是识别生态廊道最常用、有效的模型,但在应用于省域尺度时,MCR模型识别的潜在廊道路由存在冗余的问题.因此,通过引入网络科学中的边介数指数（edge-betweenness）对MCR模型进行优化,计算潜在廊道路由的边介数指数值,选取出其中最为重要和简明的结构来连通生态源地,即提取潜在路由中的骨干路由（backbone route）和关键战略点（key strategic point）作为不可替代的结构来指导省域生态廊道建设.将优化后的MCR模型应用于广东省,构建了全长5 493 km的省域生态廊道,其中包含生态源地20处,关键战略点11个,骨干生态廊道29条.骨干路由与关键战略点构成的不可替代省域生态廊道（irreplaceable provincial corridor）能够实现"廊道数量和占地面积最少、连通性基本不变"的目标.研究显示,边介数能够对潜在路由进行优化筛选,识别出维护省域生态安全的关键结构;不可替代生态廊道能够指导省域生态规划和土地空间的发展利用,并为更高水平的生态安全环境提供了演进的基础;同时也为土地资源紧张的地区提供了建设生态廊道的参考与依据.      

45,X/46,XY chromosome mosaicism detected by midtrimester amniocentesis in amniocyte clones

Amniocyte clones from a mid-trimester pregnancy disclosed 45,X/46,XY sex chromosome mosaicism. Because of the uncertainty concerning the phenotype of the fetus, the parents elected to terminate the pregnancy. Mixed (asymmetrical) gonadal dysgenesis was not found. The fetus appeared to have a normal male uro-genital system. No malformations of any type were detected, although as expected, the fetus did have 45,X/46,XY mosaicism.     

TOPHAZOP: a knowledge-based software tool for conducting HAZOP in a rapid, efficient yet inexpensive manner

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies constitute an essential step in the risk analysis of any chemical process industry and involve systematic identification of every conceivable abnormal process deviation, its causes and abnormal consequences. These authors have recently proposed optHAZOP as an alternative procedure for conducting HAZOP studies in a shorter span of time than taken by conventional HAZOP procedure, with greater accuracy and effectiveness [Khan, F. I. and Abassi, S. A., optHAZOP. An effective and efficient technique for hazard identification and assessment Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 1997, 10, 191–204]. optHAZOP consists of several steps, the most crucial one requires use of a knowledge-based software tool which would significantly reduce the requirement of expert man-hours and speed up the work of the study team. TOPHAZOP (Tool for OPTmizing HAZOP) has been developed to fulfil this need.

The TOPHAZOP knowledge-base consists of two main branches: process-specific and general. The TOPHAZOP framework allows these two branches to interact during the analysis to address the process-specific aspects of HAZOP analysis while maintaining the generality of the system. The system is open-ended and modular in structure to make easy implementation and/or expansion of knowledge. The important features of TOPHAZOP and its performance on an industrial case study are described.     

电子商务安全的探讨

介绍电子商务的发展规模以及可能会遇到的安全问题,分析电子商务安全的基本技术加密算法。根据对称加密算法和非对称加密算法的安全特点进行组合,从而提出电子商务交易的一般安全控制结构图,针对各个环节的优缺点,提出有效解决安全问题的方案,同时重点突出了各种相关新技术的特点;电子商务交易的发展,互联网的普及,网络上交易及其信息的安全性已经对人们的经济活动及日常生活产生了重要的影响,为此,提出的电子商务安全方案最大限度地降低了人们的风险;进一步探讨和展望电子商务的前景:随着电子商务的发展,电子交易的手段也更加多样化,安全问题也会变得重要和突出;同时,电子商务又是一个复杂的系统工程,它的安全还要依赖许多社会问题的解决。     

舰面设备可靠性试验工程实践

目的开展舰面设备可靠性试验工程实践。方法在舰面设备研制阶段,策划提出关键单机与系统相结合的可靠性试验方案。结果快速提高舰面设备的系统可靠性。结论近几年多个型号舰面设备的可靠性试验工程实践,有效促进了海军导弹武器系统的整体可靠性水平的提高,为其他舰面设备的可靠性工程提供参考。     

酸雨区不同用地类型土壤有效态Cd含量季节变化及关键影响因子

探明污染土壤重金属有效态含量的季节变化特征及其敏感影响因子,对农业生产过程中减低重金属生态风险具有重要的参考价值.研究于湘江中下游典型Cd超标农业小流域中选取稻田、旱作蔬菜地、丘陵林地这3类主要用地类型,分析不同用地类型Cd活性的季节变化特征及其与土壤基本理化参数的关联.为期1 a的原位监测结果显示,研究区为典型酸雨区,雨水p H值呈现冬、春季节低于夏、秋季.稻田土壤总Cd含量显著高于旱作蔬菜地,菜地显著高于林地,3种用地类型土壤总Cd含量季节特征相似,均为夏秋季节略低于冬春两季.3种用地类型Cd有效态季节变化与总Cd含量无明显的相关性,稻田土壤有效态Cd含量在5~9月的作物生长季明显低于其他月份,而菜地和林地则恰好相反.稻田土壤Cd有效性的最关键影响因子为Eh,呈显著正相关,与土壤p H负相关,菜地土壤与土壤TOC明显负相关,而林地土壤Cd有效性与水溶性有机碳、TOC呈现明显的正相关关系.研究可为Cd超标土壤污染阻控与农业安全生产提供一定的数据参考.     

重点产业源增长对北部湾地区气态污染物模拟的影响

根据污染源普查资料制作北部湾地区2007年人为排放源清单,以及中期/远期参比情景(REF15/REF20)和远期调控情景(SCEi20)下的排放源清单.采用WRF-Chem模拟北部湾地区空气质量现状及未来变化.2007年SO2和NO2月平均质量浓度模拟值与监测值比较吻合.广东、广西(海南)地区污染物质量浓度较高(低)....     

京津冀区域生产和消费CO2排放的时空特点分析

区分消费和生产二氧化碳排放是对开放的经济区域进行排放责任划分的基础,日渐受到政策制定者的关注.利用经济投入产出-生命周期分析模型,对京津冀区域1997年、2002年和2007年的消费和生产二氧化碳排放时空特征及二氧化碳排放平衡进行分析.结果表明,京津冀区域消费和生产二氧化碳排放呈约4%的年均增长;贸易隐含二氧化碳排放比例为30%~83%,并以国内贸易隐含二氧化碳排放为主;河北的消费和生产二氧化碳排放占区域主导,增速和二氧化碳排放强度高于北京和天津;京津冀区域为二氧化碳排放净流入区域,存在部分排放责任转移;京津为二氧化碳排放净转入地区,冀为二氧化碳排放净转出地区;京津冀三地二氧化碳排放关键部门分布集中且相似度较高,可以考虑区域联合控制.其中,电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业和金属冶炼及压延加工业对二氧化碳排放的依赖性最大,承担较大的其他部门的二氧化碳排放责任.投入产出分析解析了地区生产和消费二氧化碳排放情况,有利于区域减排的精细化管理和制定相应对策,并促进区域减排合作.