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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
Ozone pollution characteristics and sensitivity analysis using an observation-based model in Nanjing, Yangtze River Delta Region of China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ming Wang Wentai Chen Lin Zhang Wei Qin Yong Zhang Xiangzhi Zhang Xin Xie 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2020,32(7):13-22
Ground-level ozone (O3) has become a critical pollutant impeding air quality improvement in Yangtze River Delta region of China. In this study, we present O3 pollution characteristics based on one-year online measurements during 2016 at an urban site in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Then, the sensitivity of O3 to its precursors during 2 O3 pollution episodes in August was analyzed using a box model based on observation (OBM). The relative incremental reactivity (RIR) of hydrocarbons was larger than other precursors, suggesting that hydrocarbons played the dominant role in O3 formation. The RIR values for NOX ranged from –0.41%/% to 0.19%/%. The O3 sensitivity was also analyzed based on relationship of simulated O3 production rates with reductions of VOC and NOX derived from scenario analyses. Simulation results illustrate that O3 formation was between VOCs-limited and transition regime. Xylenes and light alkenes were found to be key species in O3 formation according to RIR values, and their sources were determined using the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model. Paints and solvent use was the largest contributor to xylenes (54%), while petrochemical industry was the most important source to propene (82%). Discussions on VOCs and NOX reduction schemes suggest that the 5% O3 control goal can be achieved by reducing VOCs by 20%. To obtain 10% O3 control goal, VOCs need to be reduced by 30% with VOCs/NOX larger than 3:1. 相似文献
3.
祁连山七一冰川物质平衡的时空变化特征 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明:1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减少0.13 km2(4.5%)。2011-2016年,七一冰川的平均物质平衡为-476 mm w.e.,平均ELA为4941 m a.s.l.,物质平衡梯度为2.9 mm/m。从季节变化看,受风吹雪和冰面升华影响,11月至次年3月冰川呈负平衡;4月和9月物质平衡受降水控制,随海拔变化呈现降水效应;强消融期(6-8月)物质平衡随海拔升高线性增加;消融期末由9月初延后至9月底。敏感性分析结果表明,物质平衡对气温变化的敏感性为-178.7 mm w.e. °C-1 a-1,对降水变化的敏感性为+2.93 mm w.e. mm-1 a-1。即61 mm的降水增加才能弥补暖季气温升高1 °C引起的冰川净物质损失。 相似文献
4.
选择地处苏北平原农区的淮安市所有15510个自然村和872414户农户全样本入户调查数据为分析对象,采用占比统计法和GIS空间分析,对村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿进行研究。主要结论如下:(1)在村落层面,平均规模小,单村独户多且村落分散,多数自然村远离镇区,近一半自然村位居“九靠近一滞洪”区域内。该格局是自然地理条件和人文因素综合影响形成的。(2)在住房层面,农村老旧住房比例高,全市40%农户在城乡同时拥有住房,但在城镇拥有住房率与到城区距离呈负相关,而农村住房空关率则呈现相反的空间格局。(3)在迁居意愿方面,54.1%的农户愿意集中居住且多意向实物安置,较低补偿标准和不便务农是不愿迁居的主要原因;移居城镇是货币安置农户的主要去向,留村和入镇集中居住是实物安置农户的主要去向。在迁居意向农户中,近90%选择政府统建方式,近80%愿意有偿退出宅基地和流转承包地。(4)村民居住空间特征和迁居意愿都存在明显的空间差异,两者之间存有内在联系且均受多种因素影响。 相似文献
5.
Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems. 相似文献
6.
Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
7.
8.
Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process. 相似文献
9.
Sulphate, Nitrogen and Base Cation Budgets at 21 Forested Catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Watmough SA Aherne J Alewell C Arp P Bailey S Clair T Dillon P Duchesne L Eimers C Fernandez I Foster N Larssen T Miller E Mitchell M Page S 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2005,109(1-3):1-36
To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s
average) for sulphate (SO4), inorganic nitrogen (NO3-N; NH4-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada,
the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more
than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO4 deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha−1 per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha−1 per year, of which 41–67% was nitrate (NO3-N). Over the period of record, SO4 concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO4 in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO3-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH4-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff
decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH4-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments
and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations
in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively,
which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at
18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31–100%; median 94%)
was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO3-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha-1 per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at
all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for
18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively.
Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses
at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty
associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium
ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions
in SO4 and H+ deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of
Ca and Mg of primary concern.
The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.
The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright. 相似文献
10.
Wojciech Mniszek 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2001,68(2):197-207
The aim of the study was to develop a sampling method aimed at individual sampling of mercury vapor and subsequent individualexposure assessment of the worker. Hopcalite available fromInowrocawskie Zakady Chemiczne (in Poland) was founduseful for mercury vapor sampling in active and passive individual samplers. However the sampling rate determined forpassive sampler in steady-state laboratory chamber cannot be usedunder fluctuating conditions of mercury vapor concentration andair movement typical for field measurement. In order to check comparativeness of passive and active sampling methods, sampleswere taken in the same time and individual samplers fixed toworker's clothes were used. Mercury vapor concentration wasmeasured at two chloralkali industries in Poland and the resultswere presented. Excessive exposure in both industries wasconfirmed by finding elevated mercury concentration in urinesamples from the workers. 相似文献