COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

尖点突变模型在研究洪水引起环境突变中的应用

以1998年霍林河特大洪水为例，在进行洪水对环境影响作用分析的基础上，将洪水发生的危险系数、地面高程、地形坡度、降雨影响程度、土地盐碱率和草地开垦率6个控制变量划分为两个主分量。由于洪水引起的环境突变可以归纳为一种耦合突变，我们采用尖点突变模型进行求解，得出各主分量的数学表达式和水环境突变区域边界，绘制了该流域环境突变分区图，论证了应用尖点突变模型研究环境突变的合理性。     

混凝土简支梁设计基准期内的可靠度

根据统计资料对不同类型建筑在不同防火措施下发生火灾的概率研究,得出了各类建筑达到轰燃的概率.基于蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法,引入材料高温本构关系、截面尺寸和计算模型系数等的变异性,按照ISO标准升温曲线升温,给出了单构件轰燃下的失效概率计算方法.最后,将设计基准期内建筑物达到轰燃的概率与单构件轰燃下的失效概率组合,给出了设计基准期内建筑构件在火灾下的失效概率公式.     

基于非概率可靠性的离散变量结构优化设计

目的针对工程结构设计中因材料供应规范限制使得设计变量不能连续取值以及材料性能波动、外界载荷偏差等不确定性问题,探索研究非概率可靠性在离散变量结构优化设计中的应用。方法以桁架结构杆件截面直径为设计变量、结构质量极小化为目标,考虑材料强度极限与外部载荷的不确定性,建立具有非概率可靠性指标约束的离散变量结构可靠性优化模型,并采用遗传算法求解离散变量结构优化设计问题。结果求解获得了三杆、十杆超静定桁架杆件截面直径最优组合,得到的优化结果相较确定性优化结果更具鲁棒性。结论非概率可靠性模型对于解决工程中设计变量具有离散性和不确定性的优化设计问题具有可行性。     

渤海湾大型底栖生物群落结构变化及原因探讨

根据近6年来的渤海湾大型底栖生物群落的资料,以及2011年的现场调查数据,从渤海湾底栖生物群落结构的变化特征出发,分析了其变化的过程和规律.同时结合渤海湾水域近几年来的水动力条件以及营养盐、溶解氧等水质特征变化,探讨底栖生物群落变化的原因.结果表明,渤海湾大型底栖生物的物种数、生物量、丰度、丰富度指数、多样性指数的高值区皆集中分布在海河口北侧离岸较远的海域,而低值区则基本集中分布近岸海域,且呈现由近岸向外海逐渐增加的趋势.渤海湾大型底栖生物群落变化可大体分为3个明显的时间节点:第一个时间节点为2005年和2008年,底栖生物群落无论总物种数、生物量和丰度都较高;第二个时间节点为2009年和2010年,底栖生物群落的上述指标值最低,表明这两年渤海湾受自然变化和人为因素干扰的程度加剧;2011年,由于渤海湾水域的各项强有力的环保措施的实施,底栖生物群落的上述指标值最高,说明其得到一定程度的恢复.渤海湾水域底栖生物群落变化受到该区域的物理因素、化学因素和生物因素的共同影响,变化特征也与各环境因素的变化基本吻合.     

Robustness of Meteorological Droughts in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations

We examine the robustness of a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating meteorological droughts and associated metrics in present‐day climate (1971‐2003) over the conterminous United States (U.S.). The RCMs that are part of North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations are compared with multiple observations over the climatologically homogeneous regions of the U.S. The seasonal precipitation, climatology, drought attributes, and trends have been assessed. The reanalysis‐based multi‐model median RCM reasonably simulates observed statistical attributes of drought and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. However, models fail to simulate significant drying trend over the Southwest and West. Further, reanalysis‐based NARCCAP runs underestimate the observed drought frequency overall, with the exception of the Southwest; whereas they underestimate persistence in the drought‐affected areas over the Southwest and West‐North Central regions. However, global climate model‐driven NARCCAP ensembles tend to overestimate regional drought frequencies. Models exhibit considerable uncertainties while reproducing meteorological drought statistics, as evidenced by a general lack of agreement in the Hurst exponent, which in turn controls drought persistence. Water resources managers need to be aware of the limitations of current climate models, while regional climate modelers may want to fine‐tune their parameters to address impact‐relevant metrics.     

中国经济发展方式的转变动力及其作用途径

以全要素生产率增长动力作为经济发展方式的转变动力,本文采用1989-2013年4组省际面板数据经由可行广义最小二乘法实证估计了10个动力因素对全要素生产率增长率的贡献水平与作用途径。研究发现:技术创新水平、市场化水平、人力资本存量水平、异质性企业集聚水平和对外开放度的综合指数对中国全要素生产率增长率的回归估计系数分别为0.575 7,0.212 5,0.136 8,0.064 4和0.018,表明技术创新、市场化改革、人力资本积累、异质性企业集聚和对外开放是促进中国经济发展方式转变的直接动力因素。进一步的研究结果显示:技术创新和异质性企业集聚通过提高前沿技术进步率和生产效率变化率以及规模报酬收益率途径,市场化改革通过提高前沿技术进步率途径,人力资本积累与对外开放通过提高前沿技术进步率和规模报酬收益率途径,促进了中国全要素生产率增长。虽然产业结构变迁、城市化、基础设施建设、区域经济政策实施和金融发展对中国全要素生产率的增长表现为负向或拖累作用,但是,产业结构变迁与城市化能够提高前沿技术进步率,基础设施建设和区域经济政策能够提高规模报酬收益率,金融发展能够提高生产效率增长率和规模报酬收益率,这5项动力因素对促进中国全要素生产率增长的正向贡献有待提高。依据上述研究结论,本文提出尽快攻克制约生产率增长的核心技术,统筹考虑产业结构升级、城市化、基础设施建设和区域经济政策实施以及加快金融领域改革等政策建议,以期加快我国经济发展方式转变进程。     

基于Petri网的铁路车站安全防护系统建模及可靠性分析

采用单一的随机Petri网对车站线路结构、列车运行过程及车站防护系统建模,基于欧洲电工标准委员会定义的安全目标,确定车站安全防护系统的可靠性需求。对无防护系统的列车入站进行建模和分析,然后基于防护系统功能及可靠性特性,结合列车入站动态特性,对防护系统的功能和可靠性进行建模,并根据安全目标与车站事故率之间的数学关系进行系统的安全分析和可用性分析。其结果表明,车站防护系统的可靠性与乘客的个人风险存在着定量的关系,从而可以依据个人风险的标准来确定防护系统可靠性需求。     

基于Monte-Carlo方法的静电除尘器除尘效率

针对经典除尘效率未考虑诸多随机因素影响的问题,提出了基于Monte-Carlo方法的效率分析模型,并通过实验数据验证其可靠性。通过该模型分析了粒径大小、电场气流速度、电晕电压、两极间距、粒子浓度等因素对收尘效率的影响规律,结果表明:基于Monte-Carlo方法的仿真结果精度更高,能有效预测静电除尘器的收尘效率,对于改进静电除尘器设计具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。     

Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5‰, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2 m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5 m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2‰.