中国主要电子废物产生量估算

在分析了电子废物类型及其可能造成的主要环境问题的基础上。根据电子电器产品的销量、社会保有量以及产品寿命期等因子建立模型对我国2000-2010年间的电脑、电视机、冰箱、洗衣机、空调等5大类电子电器产品的年度废弃量进行估算。结果显示到2003年电脑年度废弃量达到447万台，总体呈增长趋势；电视机、冰箱的废弃量在2003年分别达到4229万台和976万台；洗衣机年度废弃量有一定波动。大约在2005年达到一个高峰，废弃量为1521万台；空调废弃量相对于其他家电较少，但一直处于稳步增长期。并在此基础估算了我国2003年主要电子废物中的可回收资源含量。量大而且增长较快的电子废物的处置和资源再生化将是我国电子废物管理面临的一个难题。     

空空导弹定延寿技术应用研究

介绍了国外典型的定延寿方法,以美国为代表采用的跟踪监测法和以俄罗斯为代表采用的加速试验法,之后概述了国内常用的厂内寿命试验法、领先使用法、外场信息法、工程分析法、加速试验法。在此基础上,总结了适用于国内空空导弹开展定延寿工作的方法,最后对深入开展空空导弹定延寿技术研究提出了几点建议。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

我国SO_2和NO_X排放强度地理分布和历史趋势

根据我国燃料消费、燃料的含硫量和硫与氮氧化物排放因子，计算我国各地区ＳＯ_２和ＮＯ_Ｘ排放强度地理分布。结果指出，我国原煤含硫量为１．１２％。１９９０年全国ＳＯ_２和ＮＯ_Ｘ的排放量分别为１７５１．８万ｔ和８４２．２万ｔ，排放强度最大的地区是中东部地区，即辽宁、河北、山东、山西和浙江。这些地区平均排放强度大于７ｔ／ｋｍ￣２·ａ。还估算了全国１９５０～１９９０年ＳＯ_２和ＮＯ_Ｘ历年的排放量。     

水环境模拟中多孔介质非均质性空间变异最优估计模型

在生产实践中,经常要求对含水介质渗透性参数的空间分布数值作出可靠的估计.如何利用已知数据对指定点处的渗透性参数作出令人满意的估计,历来是水文地质工作者和应用数学工作者都关心的问题.文章应用能够刻画区域化变量随机性与结构性特征的地质统计学的理论和方法对能够反映多孔介质非均质特性的参数进行了分析,通过分析结果得出了参数空间变异性局部最优估计模型--普通克里格法.     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

洪水灾害评估体系研究

从系统论的观点出发，提出了洪水灾害系统的概念，并结合洪水灾害评估的特点，设计了洪水灾害评估体系的总体框架。     

重力式码头的震害预测

本文根据重力式码头的结构地震荷载计算和地震破坏的经验，建立了重力式码头的震害预测方法。并用此方法对烟台港的重力式码头进行了震害预测。     

熵法估参在环境监测数据频率分析中的应用

以最大信息熵原理为理论基础的熵法估参方法，是一种具有严格物理和数学意义的新型参数估计方法，本文针对珠江广州河段主要污染物含量长年监测数据，对比熵法与传统方法矩法对四参数Г分布的估参结果，并以频率绝对离盖和最小为准则进行判定，结果表明，熵法估参结果与矩法总体上相当接近，且大部分样本的熵法估计参数优于矩法，在环境监测数据频率分析中具有实用性和推广价值。     

房屋结构损伤及安全性评估实例分析

随着我国部分房屋建筑使用年限接近设计期限,或者说结构进入老化阶段,结构的健康状况和安全性评估逐步引起人们的关注。现代测试技术和计算机信息处理方法的结合,结构工程损伤检测方法、技术的规范化和科学化,基于时域和频域分析的结构参数辨识理论和技术、人工智能技术和专家系统也开始应用于结构健康监测和评估。简要评述了结构损伤检测方法进展和理论分析方法,并结合某体育场馆的结构安全性评估为实例,从结构设计、材料强度检测和实际结构状态进行全面检测和分析,并对其健康状况和安全性进行评估。