Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND RECEIVING-WATER STANDARDS1

ABSTRACT: An important enforcement question is, “What should be the relationship between ‘Best Management Practices’ (BMP) and receiving-water standards?” Nonpoint pollution dischargers are concerned about implementing a BMP program, only to find themselves in violation because receiving-water standards still have not been met. They are also concerned about the procedures a regulatory agency will utilize to determine the relative success of a BMP program. Successful management of nonpoint pollution requires that these concerns be addressed. Three alternative relationships have been developed. The recommended alternative is to implement the BMP program and use standards as a measure of the effectiveness of the program. Failure to achieve the standards would lead to a reevaluation of the BMP program. Enforcement activities against nonpoint dischargers would be restricted to the failure on their part to implement the previously agreed upon BMP program. Recommendations are also made as to measures regulatory agencies should take if their procedures to judge the relative success of a BMP program are to be technically and politically effective.     

Environmental management of the Colorado River within the Grand Canyon

Irreversible environmental changes are occurring along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon as a result of regulation of the river flow by the Glen Canyon Dam. The questions of primary importance in managing this great natural resource are 1) in what manner and how rapidly are the physical and ecological adjustments taking place, and 2) is the increased use of the river for recreational boating contributing to the degradation? Human use along the Colorado River is limited, for the most part, to the relic, pre-dam fluvial deposits colloquially called “beaches.” With the new river regime these deposits are positioned well above the present high-water stage, 27,000 cubic feet/second (cfs), or 765 cubic meters/second (cms), so they are not replenished periodically as they were prior to construction of the dam in 1963. The dominant natural processes now are aeolian sand transport and mass wasting. The float-trip passengers use the river beaches for hiking, camping, and. lunch stops. At the most desirable sites thirty to forty people camp on the beaches each night over a four to five month season. Human impact includes incorporation of campsite litter, burial of chemically treated waste, and the direct stress associated with people walking on the vegetation and unstable sedimentary deposits. Results of our investigations indicate that the rate of degradation at the most heavily used sites exceeds the capacity of aeolian processes to reestablish natural landscapes. Therefore, careful management of float trjps is needed if these environments are to be maintained in a natural state rather than a “sand-box” state.     

Accretion of Nutrients and Sediment by a Constructed Stormwater Treatment Wetland in the Lake Tahoe Basin

This unique study evaluates the cumulative 16‐year lifetime performance of a wetland retention basin designed to treat stormwater runoff. Sediment cores were extracted prior to basin excavation and restoration to evaluate accretion rates and the origin of materials, retention characteristics of fine particulate matter, and overall pollutant removal efficiency. The sediment and organic layers together accreted 3.2 cm of depth per year, and 7.0 kg/m²/yr of inorganic material. Average annual accretion rates in g/m²/yr were as follows: C, 280; N, 17.7; P, 3.74; S, 3.80; Fe, 194; Mn, 2.68; Ca, 30.8; Mg, 30.7; K, 12.2; Na, 2.54; Zn, 0.858; Cu, 0.203; and B, 0.03. The accretion of C, N, P and sediment was comparable to nonwastewater treatment wetlands, overall, and relatively efficient for stormwater treatment wetlands. Comparison of particle size distribution between sediment cores and suspended solids in stormwater runoff indicated the wetland was effective at removing fine particles, with sediment cores containing 25% clay and 56% silt. A majority of the accretion of most metals and P could be attributed to efficient trapping of allochthonous material, while over half the accretion of C and N could be attributed to accumulation of autochthonous organic matter. Stormwater treatment was shown to be effective when physical properties of a retention basin are combined with the biological processes of a wetland, although sediment accretion can be relatively rapid.     

Simulating Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia

We used the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE-s) model to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in Montane mainland southeast Asia (MMSEA), a region in the midst of transformation due to rapid intensification of agriculture and expansion of regional trade markets. Simulated changes affected approximately 10 % of the MMSEA landscape between 2001 and 2025 and 16 % between 2001 and 2050. Roughly 9 % of the current vegetation, which consists of native species of trees, shrubs, and grasses, is projected to be replaced by tree plantations, tea, and other evergreen shrubs during the 50 years period. Importantly, 4 % of this transition is expected to be due to the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), a tree plantation crop that may have important implications for local-to-regional scale hydrology because of its potentially high water consumption in the dry season.     

Nocturnal boundary layer characteristics and land breeze development in Houston,Texas during TexAQS II

The nocturnal boundary layer in Houston, Texas was studied using a high temporal and vertical resolution tethersonde system on four nights during the Texas Air Quality Study II (TexAQS II) in August and September 2006. The launch site was on the University of Houston campus located approximately 4 km from downtown Houston. Of particular interest was the evolution of the nocturnal surface inversion and the wind flows within the boundary layer. The land–sea breeze oscillation in Houston has important implications for air quality as the cycle can impact ozone concentrations through pollutant advection and recirculation. The results showed that a weakly stable surface inversion averaging in depth between 145 and 200 m AGL formed on each of the experiment nights, typically within 2–3 h after sunset. Tethersonde vertical winds were compared with two other Houston data sets (High Resolution Doppler Lidar and radar wind profiler) from locations near the coastline and good agreement was found, albeit with a temporal lag at the tethersonde site. This comparison revealed development of a land breeze on three nights which began near the coastline and propagated inland both horizontally and vertically with time. The vertical temperature structure was significantly modified on one night at the tethersonde site after the land breeze wind shift, exhibiting near-adiabatic profiles below 100 m AGL.