Future intensification of summer hypoxia in the tidal Garonne River (SW France) simulated by a coupled hydro sedimentary-biogeochemical model

Projections for the next 50 years predict a widespread distribution of hypoxic zones in the open and coastal ocean due to environmental and global changes. The Tidal Garonne River (SW France) has already experienced few episodic hypoxic events. However, predicted future climate and demographic changes suggest that summer hypoxia could become more severe and even permanent near the city of Bordeaux in the next few decades. A 3D model, which couples hydrodynamic, sediment transport, and biogeochemical processes, is applied to assess the impact of factors submitted to global and regional climate changes on oxygenation in the turbidity maximum zone (TMZ) of the Tidal Garonne River during low-discharge periods. The model simulates an intensification of summer hypoxia with an increase in temperature, a decrease in river flow or an increase in the local population, but not with sea level rise, which has a negligible impact on dissolved oxygen. Different scenarios were tested by combining these different factors according to the regional projections for 2050 and 2100. All the simulations showed a trend toward a spatial and temporal extension of summer hypoxia that needs to be considered by local water authorities to impose management strategies to protect the ecosystem.     

A conceptual framework for understanding illegal killing of large carnivores

The growing complexity and global nature of wildlife poaching threaten the survival of many species worldwide and are outpacing conservation efforts. Here, we reviewed proximal and distal factors, both social and ecological, driving illegal killing or poaching of large carnivores at sites where it can potentially occur. Through this review, we developed a conceptual social–ecological system framework that ties together many of the factors influencing large carnivore poaching. Unlike most conservation action models, an important attribute of our framework is the integration of multiple factors related to both human motivations and animal vulnerability into feedbacks. We apply our framework to two case studies, tigers in Laos and wolverines in northern Sweden, to demonstrate its utility in disentangling some of the complex features of carnivore poaching that may have hindered effective responses to the current poaching crisis. Our framework offers a common platform to help guide future research on wildlife poaching feedbacks, which has hitherto been lacking, in order to effectively inform policy making and enforcement.     

Nonparametric spatial regression of survival probability: visualization of population sinks in Eurasian woodcock

Both evolutionary ecologists and wildlife managers make inference based on how fitness and demography vary in space. Spatial variation in survival can be difficult to assess in the wild because (1) multisite study designs are not well suited to populations that are continuously distributed across a large area and (2) available statistical models accounting for detectability less than 1.0 do not easily cope with geographical coordinates. Here we use penalized splines within a Bayesian state-space modeling framework to estimate and visualize survival probability in two dimensions. The approach is flexible in that no parametric form for the relationship between survival and coordinates need be specified a priori. To illustrate our method, we study a game species, the Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola, based on band recovery data (5000 individuals) collected over a > 50 000-km2 area in west-central France with contrasted habitats and hunting pressures. We find that spatial variation in survival probability matches an index of hunting pressure and creates a mosaic of population sources and sinks. Such analyses could provide guidance concerning the spatial management of hunting intensity or could be used to identify pathways of spatial variation in fitness, for example, to study adaptation to changing landscape and climate.     

From dummies to animations: a review of computer-animated stimuli used in animal behavior studies

Traditionally, studies that explored animal communication have been directed towards the observation of natural interactions between individuals. Over the years, researchers have long championed the use of artificial stimuli in place of natural ones in behavioral experiments to precisely control what the observers get to see or experience. The employment of diverse techniques to stage animal interactions has provided an alternative to observations and intrusive experimental methods. Technological advances now allow researchers to develop realistic computer animations of social partners that mimic behaviors with a high degree of fidelity for morphological and behavioral characteristics of tutors. The increasing use of the computer-generated animations technique reveals a desire to deliver standardized visual stimuli and to limit the variable behavior of demonstrators across experimental sessions. In the following review, we provide an appraisal of the computer-generated animations efficiency to stage animal interactions, and consider experimental studies in which this technique has been employed to simulate social interactions. We also present alternative methods that are used for designing animation models. Our aim is to evaluate the merits of computer-generated animations and how this technique may be more appropriate for certain types of staged interactions when compared to other classically employed approaches. We advocate that computer-generated animations appear to be the most flexible technique to date, and offers better control of visual cues that are presented, thus allowing researchers to program a large variety of stimuli. Finally, we suggest improvements of this technique, and especially how it may be used to study signal design in multimodal systems.     

Escape migration decisions in Eurasian Woodcocks: insights from survival analyses using large-scale recovery data

During unpredictable adverse conditions, endotherms can engage in emergency behaviors (movement, torpor, hyperphagia) to maintain energy balance and reduce mortality hazards. Bird “escape migration” is one of the most visible of these behaviors. In this study, we focus on a Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola population. Seasonal migrations bring this population from its breeding grounds in Eastern and Northern Europe to its wintering grounds in France. A varying number of these birds are also regularly reported from Spain, supposedly during additional escape movements that occur in winter. Using models that account for the imperfect detection rate of individuals and a large (>44,000 individuals) dataset combining information from the wintering and breeding ranges, we show that severe winters significantly reduced survival probability, but that migration to Spain increased only during the most intense cold spell that occurred over the 20-year study period. This suggests that the decision to resume migration during the winter is submitted to a threshold mechanism, which we discuss in the light of current models of migratory behavior.     

Load Estimation Method Using Distributions with Covariates: A Comparison with Commonly Used Estimation Methods

Load estimates obtained using an approach based on statistical distributions with parameters expressed as a function of covariates (e.g., streamflow) (distribution with covariates hereafter called DC method) were compared to four load estimation methods: (1) flow‐weighted mean concentration; (2) integral regression; (3) segmented regression (the last two with Ferguson's correction factor); and (4) hydrograph separation methods. A total of 25 datasets (from 19 stations) of daily concentrations of total dissolved solids, nutrients, or suspended particulate matter were used. The selected stations represented a wide range of hydrological conditions. Annual flux errors were determined by randomly generating 50 monthly sample series from daily series. Annual and interannual biases and dispersions were evaluated and compared. The impact of sampling frequency was investigated through the generation of bimonthly and weekly surveys. Interannual uncertainty analysis showed that the performance of the DC method was comparable with those of the other methods, except for stations showing high hydrological variability. In this case, the DC method performed better, with annual biases lower than those characterizing the other methods. Results show that the DC method generated the smallest pollutant load errors when considering a monthly sampling frequency for rivers showing high variability in hydrological conditions and contaminant concentrations.     

Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists

Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.     

Bird disturbance on conservation sites in Brittany (France): the standpoint of geographers

Bird disturbance by human activities is one of the impacts related to human presence at conservation sites in Brittany (France). This paper is an attempt at reviewing this relatively unknown problem through the results of an international bibliographical review and of a regional inquiry conducted in close collaboration with managers of the conservation areas in Brittany. These two approaches will help to demonstrate the extent and complexity of the human / fauna interactions, as well as to take stock of the state of research in this field and, last but not least, to highlight the difficulties managers of conservation sites are facing to deal with this new issue. For the managers, bird disturbance is indeed the most important impact related to human attendance on conservation sites in Brittany.     

Coregionalization analysis with a drift for multi-scale assessment of spatial relationships between ecological variables 1. Estimation of drift and random components

In two articles, we present ‘coregionalization analysis with a drift’ (CRAD), a method to assess the multi-scale variability of and relationships between ecological variables from a multivariate spatial data set. In phase I of CRAD (the first article), a deterministic drift component representing the large-scale pattern and a random component modeled as a second-order stationary process are estimated for each variable separately. In phase II (this article), a linear model of coregionalization (LMC) is fitted by estimated generalized least squares to the direct and cross experimental variograms of residuals (i.e., after the removal of estimated drifts). Structural correlations and coefficients of determination at smaller scales are then computed from the estimated coregionalization matrices, while the estimated drifts are used to calculate pseudo coefficients at large scale. The performance of five procedures in estimating correlations and coefficients of determination was compared using a Monte Carlo study. In four CRAD procedures, drift estimation was based on local polynomials of order 0, 1, 2 (L₀, L₁, L₂) or a global polynomial with forward selection of the basis functions; the fifth procedure was coregionalization analysis (CRA), in which large-scale patterns were modeled as a supplemental component in the LMC. In bivariate and multivariate analyses, the uncertainty in the estimation of correlations and coefficients of determination could be related to the interference between spatial components within a bounded sampling domain. In the bivariate case, most procedures provided acceptable estimates of correlations. In regionalized redundancy analysis, uncertainty was highest for CRA, while L₁ provided the best results overall. In a forest ecology example, the identification of scale-specific correlations between plant species diversity and soil and topographical variables illustrated the potential of CRAD to provide unique insight into the functioning of complex ecosystems.