运用卫星数据和来自国家森林清查的野外数据进行全国森林变量估计

瑞典约有55%的土地面积被森林所覆盖.目前,瑞典的森林覆盖没有统一的和地理学上明晰的描述.现存的独立性数据源是Landsat TM和SPOT HRV卫星数据、地图蒙片(map mask)和森林清查样地.它们在一起,使森林变量(如材枳和林分年龄)的计算机估计成为可能.这些估计的精确度在像素水平上是低的,但在林分水平上较高.在规划木材资源应如何加以利用或出于监测目的时,这类基于栅格的森林数据对政府来说是有帮助的.本文描述了以有效成本建立森林变量估计全国数据库的生成流程.我们在林分水平上评价了瑞典西南部某地森林变量估计的精确度.结果表明,总材积估计的整体均方根误差为33%,年龄估计的整体均方根误差为23%.     

Reconstruction of centuries-old Daphnia communities in a lake recovering from acidification and metal contamination

Paleolimnological and molecular genetic techniques were combined to reconstruct the long-term patterns in Daphnia community composition in Hannah Lake--a lake recovering from industrial acidification, metal contamination and faunal extirpation. Like many zooplankters, Daphnia produce diapausing eggs that can remain viable for decades and even over a century. Yet, the appearance of D. mendotae in Hannah Lake during the last two decades is likely the outcome of dispersal from other nearby lakes, not by colonization from the sediment egg-bank. Our genetic tests using PCR, SSCP and sequencing indicate that D. mendotae diapausing eggs are absent within the sediment record of the previous 250 years and that, prior to metal smelting operations in the region, the community was dominated by D. pulicaria. This species shift following the lake's chemical restoration is consistent with earlier historical changes in lake acidity. Environmental fluctuations may have governed community composition throughout Hannah Lake's more ancient past. Extending this molecular-paleolimnological approach to other lakes should help develop more accurate formulations of the biological recovery process.     

Comparison of recycling outcomes in three types of recycling collection units

Commercial institutions have many factors to consider when implementing an effective recycling program. This study examined the effectiveness of three different types of recycling bins on recycling accuracy by determining the percent weight of recyclable material placed in the recycling bins, comparing the percent weight of recyclable material by type of container used, and examining whether a change in signage increased recycling accuracy. Data were collected over 6 weeks totaling 30 days from 3 different recycling bin types at a Midwest University medical center. Five bin locations for each bin type were used. Bags from these bins were collected, sorted into recyclable and non-recyclable material, and weighed. The percent recyclable material was calculated using these weights. Common contaminates found in the bins were napkins and paper towels, plastic food wrapping, plastic bags, and coffee cups. The results showed a significant difference in percent recyclable material between bin types and bin locations. Bin type 2 was found to have one bin location to be statistically different (p = 0.048), which may have been due to lack of a trash bin next to the recycling bin in that location. Bin type 3 had significantly lower percent recyclable material (p < 0.001), which may have been due to lack of a trash bin next to the recycling bin and increased contamination due to the combination of commingled and paper into one bag. There was no significant change in percent recyclable material in recycling bins post signage change. These results suggest a signage change may not be an effective way, when used alone, to increase recycling compliance and accuracy. This study showed two or three-compartment bins located next to a trash bin may be the best bin type for recycling accuracy.     

Heuristics and biases in cyber security dilemmas

Cyber security often depends on decisions made by human operators, who are commonly considered a major cause of security failures. We conducted 2 behavioral experiments to explore whether and how cyber security decision-making responses depend on gain–loss framing and salience of a primed recall prior experience. In Experiment I, we employed a 2 × 2 factorial design, manipulating the frame (gain vs. loss) and the presence versus absence of a prior near-miss experience. Results suggest that the experience of a near-miss significantly increased respondents’ endorsement of safer response options under a gain frame. Overall, female respondents were more likely to select a risk averse (safe) response compared with males. Experiment II followed the same general paradigm, framing all consequences in a loss frame and manipulating recall to include one of three possible prior experiences: false alarm, near-miss, or a hit involving a loss of data. Results indicate that the manipulated prior hit experience significantly increased the likelihood of respondents’ endorsement of a safer response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss experience. Conversely, the manipulated prior false-alarm experience significantly decreased respondents’ likelihood of endorsing a safer response relative to the manipulated prior near-miss experience. These results also showed a main effect for age and were moderated by respondent’s income level.     

Decision-support tools for dynamic management

Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxan's functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time.     

Psychological drivers of risk-reducing behaviors to limit human–wildlife conflict

Conflicts between people and wild animals are increasing globally, often with serious consequences for both. Local regulations or ordinances are frequently used to promote human behaviors that minimize these conflicts (risk-reducing behaviors), but compliance with ordinances can be highly variable. While efforts to increase compliance could be improved through applications of conservation psychology, little is known about the relative influence of different factors motivating compliance. Using concepts from psychology and risk theory, we conducted a longitudinal study pairing data from mail surveys with direct observations of compliance with a wildlife ordinance requiring residents to secure residential garbage from black bears (Ursus americanus). We assessed the relative influence of beliefs and attitudes toward bears and bear proofing, perceived behavioral control, perceived risks and benefits assigned to bears, norms, trust in management, previous experience with conflicts, and demographics on compliance behavior (i.e., bear proofing). Data on previous experience were obtained through direct observation and survey reports. We found that higher compliance rates were associated with more observed conflicts on a respondent's block. Counter to expectations, however, residents were less compliant when they were more trusting of the management agency and perceived more benefits from bears. We suggest that messages have the potential to increase compliance when they empower residents by linking successful management of conflicts to individual actions and emphasize how reducing conflicts could maintain benefits provided by wildlife. Modifying existing educational materials to account for these psychological considerations and evaluating their impact on compliance behavior over time are important next steps in changing human behaviors relevant to the globally important problem of human-wildlife conflict.     

A Tale of Two Rivers: Implications of Water Management Practices for Mussel Biodiversity Outcomes During Droughts

Droughts often pose situations where stream water levels are lowest while human demand for water is highest. Here we present results of an observational study documenting changes in freshwater mussel communities in two southern US rivers during a multi-year drought. During a 13-year period water releases into the Kiamichi River from an impoundment were halted during droughts, while minimum releases from an impoundment were maintained in the Little River. The Kiamichi observed nearly twice as many low-flow events known to cause mussel mortality than the Little, and regression tree analyses suggest that this difference was influenced by reduced releases. During this period mussel communities in the Kiamichi declined in species richness and abundance, changes that were not observed in the Little. These results suggest that reduced releases during droughts likely led to mussel declines in one river, while maintaining reservoir releases may have sustained mussel populations in another.     

Perspectives on Disconnects Between Scientific Information and Management Decisions on Post-fire Recovery in Western US

Environmental regulations frequently mandate the use of “best available” science, but ensuring that it is used in decisions around the use and protection of natural resources is often challenging. In the Western US, this relationship between science and management is at the forefront of post-fire land management decisions. Recent fires, post-fire threats (e.g. flooding, erosion), and the role of fire in ecosystem health combine to make post-fire management highly visible and often controversial. This paper uses post-fire management to present a framework for understanding why disconnects between science and management decisions may occur. We argue that attributes of agencies, such as their political or financial incentives, can limit how effectively science is incorporated into decision-making. At the other end of the spectrum, the lack of synthesis or limited data in science can result in disconnects between science-based analysis of post-fire effects and agency policy and decisions. Disconnects also occur because of the interaction between the attributes of agencies and the attributes of science, such as their different spatial and temporal scales of interest. After offering examples of these disconnects in post-fire treatment, the paper concludes with recommendations to reduce disconnects by improving monitoring, increasing synthesis of scientific findings, and directing social-science research toward identifying and deepening understanding of these disconnects.