Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.     

A mechanistic study of ciprofloxacin adsorption by goethite in the presence of silver and titanium dioxide nanoparticles

The adsorption behaviors of ciprofloxacin (CIP), a fluoroquinolone antibiotic, onto goethite (Gt) in the presence of silver and titanium dioxide nanoparticles (AgNPs and TiO₂NPs) were investigated. Results showed that CIP adsorption kinetics in Gt with or without NPs both followed the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. The presence of AgNPs or TiO₂NPs inhibited the adsorption of CIP by Gt. The amount of inhibition of CIP sorption due to AgNPs was decreased with an increase of solution pH from 5.0 to 9.0. In contrast, in the presence of TiO₂NPs, CIP adsorption by Gt was almost unchanged at pHs of 5.0∼6.5 but was decreased with an increase of pH from 6.5 to 9.0. The mechanisms of AgNPs and TiO₂NPs in inhibiting CIP adsorption by Gt were different, which was attributed to citrate coating of AgNPs resulting in competition with CIP for adsorption sites on Gt, while TiO₂NPs could compete with Gt for CIP adsorption. Additionally, CIP was adsorbed by Gt or TiO₂NPs through a tridentate complex involving the bidentate inner-sphere coordination of the deprotonated carboxylic group and hydrogen bonding through the adjacent carbonyl group on the quinoline ring. These findings advance our understanding of the environmental behavior and fate of fluoroquinolone antibiotics in the presence of NPs.     

Abundance of the New Zealand subantarctic southern right whale population estimated from photo-identification and genotype mark-recapture

The abundance of New Zealand subantarctic southern right whales (Eubalaena australis) was estimated for the first time using mark-recapture methods based on photo-identification and microsatellite genotyping (13 loci). Individual identification photographs of 383 whales and microsatellite genotypes of 235 whales were collected during annual austral winter field surveys from 1995 to 1998. Given the 4-year survey period and lack of geographic and demographic closure, we estimated super-population abundance using the POPAN Jolly-Seber model implemented in the software programme MARK. Models with constant survivorship but time-varying capture probability and probability of entry into the population were the most suitable due to the survey design. This provided estimates of abundance in 1998 of 908 non-calf whales (95% C.L. = 755, 1,123) for the photo-identification and 910 non-calf whales (95% C.L. = 641, 1,354) for the microsatellite genotype data sets. The current estimate of 900 whales may represent less than 5% of the pre-whaling abundance in New Zealand waters.     

Tropical annual cropping systems: Ant ecology

The ecological role of ants in tropical annual cropping systems is discussed in general and with respect to a specific Mexican agroecosystem Generally, the potential positive contributions of ants to crop yields result from their impact on soil structure, nutrient cycling, and reduction of insect and weed pests In annual wet lowland fields in eastern Mexico, the ant community is simple and dominated by the aggressive fire ant,Solenopsis geminata. The influence of vegetation structure and composition on the ant community and, specifically, on the foraging behavior ofS geminata is discussed     

How percentage-protected targets can support positive biodiversity outcomes

Global targets for the percentage area of land protected, such as 30% by 2030, have gained increasing prominence, but both their scientific basis and likely effectiveness have been questioned. As with emissions-reduction targets based on desired climate outcomes, percentage-protected targets combine values and science by estimating the area over which conservation actions are required to help achieve desired biodiversity outcomes. Protected areas are essential for achieving many biodiversity targets, in part because many species are highly sensitive to human-associated disturbance. However, because the contribution of protected areas to biodiversity outcomes is contingent on their location, management, governance, threats, and what occurs across the broader landscape matrix, global percentage-protected targets are unavoidably empirical generalizations of ecological patterns and processes across diverse geographies. Percentage-protected targets are insufficient in isolation but can complement other actions and contribute to biodiversity outcomes within a framework that balances accuracy and pragmatism in a global context characterized by imperfect biodiversity data. Ideally, percentage-protected targets serve as anchors that strengthen comprehensive national biodiversity strategies by communicating the level of ambition necessary to reverse current trends of biodiversity loss. If such targets are to fulfill this role within the complex societal process by which both values and science impel conservation actions, conservation scientists must clearly communicate the nature of the evidence base supporting percentage-protected targets and how protected areas can function within a broader landscape managed for sustainable coexistence between people and nature. A new paradigm for protected and conserved areas recognizes that national coordination, incentives, and monitoring should support rather than undermine diverse locally led conservation initiatives. However, the definition of a conserved area must retain a strong focus on biodiversity to remain consistent with the evidence base from which percentage-protected targets were originally derived.     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.     

Understanding Social Complexity Within the Wildland–Urban Interface: A New Species of Human Habitation?

The lack of knowledge regarding social diversity in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) or an in-depth understanding of the ways people living there interact to address common problems is concerning, perhaps even dangerous, given that community action is necessary for successful wildland fire preparedness and natural resource management activities. In this article, we lay out the knowledge and preliminary case study evidence needed to begin systematically documenting the differing levels and types of adaptive capacity WUI communities have for addressing collective problems such as wildland fire hazard. In order to achieve this end, we draw from two theoretical perspectives encompassing humans' interactions with their environment, including (1) Kenneth Wilkinson's interactional approach to community, (2) and certain elements of place literature. We also present case study research on wildfire protection planning in two drastically different California communities to illustrate how social diversity influences adaptive capacity to deal with hazards such as wildland fire. These perspectives promote an image of the WUI not as a monolithic entity but a complex mosaic of communities with different needs and existing capacities for wildland fire and natural resource management.     

Wildfire effects on soil nutrients and leaching in a tahoe basin watershed

A wildfire burned through a previously sampled research site, allowing pre- and post-burn measurements of the forest floor, soils, and soil leaching near Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Fire and post-fire erosion caused large and statistically significant (P < or = 0.05) losses of C, N, P, S, Ca, and Mg from the forest floor. There were no statistically significant effects on mineral soils aside from a decrease in total N in the surface (A11) horizon, an increase in pH in the A11 horizon, and increases in water-extractable SO4(2-) in the A11 and A12 horizons. Burning caused consistent but nonsignificant increases in exchangeable Ca2+ in most horizons, but no consistent or statistically significant effects on exchangeable K+ or Mg2+, or on Bray-, bicarbonate-, or water-extractable P concentrations. Before the burn, there were no significant differences in leaching, but during the first winter after the fire, soil solution concentrations of NH4+, NO3-, ortho-P, and (especially) SO4(2-) were elevated in the burned area, and resin lysimeters showed significant increases in the leaching of NH4+ and mineral N. The leaching losses of mineral N were much smaller than the losses from the forest floor and A11 horizons, however. We conclude that the major short-term effects of wildfire were on leaching whereas the major long-term effect was the loss of N from the forest floor and soil during the fire.     

Sedimentary radioactive tracers and diffusive models

This paper examines the underlying assumptions and consequences of applying a steady-state equation to sediment profiles of radioactive tracers in order to deconvolute sedimentation from bioturbation processes modelled as a diffusive type process.Several factors follow immediately from this investigation:

(i)

if the observed radioactive concentration increases with depth over any finite depth range then the proposed steady-state, constant flux equation is not applicable. Any increase in radioactive concentration with depth implies a negative mixing coefficient which is a physical impossibility;

(ii)

when the radioactive concentration systematically decreases with increasing sedimentary depth then solutions to the steady-state conservation equation exist only when either the constant solid state flux to the sediment surface is small enough so that a positive mixing coefficient results or when the mixing coefficient is small enough so that a positive flux results.

If the radioactive concentration, porosity and/or density of the solid phase are such that the proposed equation is inappropriate (because no physically acceptable solution exists) then one must abandon the proposed steady-state equation.Further: if the flux of solid sediment to the sediment surface varies with time then, of course, a steady-state conservation equation is also inappropriate.Simple examples illustrate that the assumption of steady-state restricts the applicability of this modelling approach to a relatively small sub-set of expected situations in the real world.     

Mercury Emissions from a Hazardous Waste Incinerator Equipped with a State-of-the-Art Wet Scrubber

Abstract

Over a six-week period, eleven tests were performed at the U.S. EPA Incineration Research Facility (IRF) in Jefferson, Arkansas to evaluate the fate of trace metals fed to a rotary kiln incinerator equipped with a Calvert Flux-Forcer/Condensation Scrubber pilot plant as the primary air pollution control system (APCS). Test variables were kiln temperature, ranging from 538 °C to 927 °C; waste feed chlorine content, ranging from 0% to 3.4%; and scrubber pressure drop, ranging from 8.2 kPa to 16.9 kPa. Mercury was among the six hazardous constituent trace metals fed to the IRF’s pilotscale rotary kiln incineration system as part of a synthetic waste feed. This paper focuses on the test results solely with respect to mercury.

As expected, mercury behaved as a very volatile metal throughout the tests; it was not detected in any kiln ash samples. Scrubber collection efficiency for mercury ranged from 67% to >99%, averaging 87%; this was somewhat lower than expected and may be attributable to low scrubber loadings.

The ability to collect and analyze representative scrubber water samples appears to have been affected by the waste feed chlorine content; detection of mercury at higher concentrations during high waste-chlorine-content tests is thought to be largely the result of the formation of mercuric chloride, a more water-soluble species, during those tests. As a result, no firm conclusions may be drawn regarding the true impact of waste feed chlorine content on mercury partitioning to the scrubber water. As expected, no significant relationship was observed between kiln exit-gas temperature and mercury partitioning, nor was there a significant relationship with scrubber pressure drop.