Predicting biodiversity change: outside the climate envelope, beyond the species-area curve

Efforts to anticipate threats to biodiversity take the form of species richness predictions (SRPs) based on simple correlations with current climate and habitat area. We review the major approaches that have been used for SRP, species-area curves and climate envelopes, and suggest that alternative research efforts may provide more understanding and guidance for management. Extinction prediction suffers from a number of limitations related to data and the novelty of future environments. We suggest additional attention to (1) identification of variables related to biodiversity that are diagnostic and potentially more predictable than extinction, (2) constraints on species dispersal and reproduction that will determine population persistence and range shifts, including limited sources or potential immigrants for many regions, and (3) changes in biotic interactions and phenology. We suggest combinations of observational and experimental approaches within a framework available for ingesting heterogeneous data sources. Together, these recommendations amount to a shift in emphasis from prediction of extinction numbers to identification of vulnerabilities and leading indicators of change, as well as suggestions for surveillance tools needed to evaluate important variables and the experiments likely to provide most insight.     

Designing the next generation of climate adaptation research for development

Adaptation research has changed significantly in recent years as funders and researchers seek to encourage greater impact, ensure value for money and promote interdisciplinarity across the natural and social sciences. While these developments are inherently positive, they also bring fresh challenges. With this in mind, this paper presents an agenda for the next generation of climate adaptation research for development. The agenda is based on insights from a dialogue session held at the 2016 Adaptation Futures conference as well as drawing on the collective experience of the authors. We propose five key areas that need to be changed in order to meet the needs of future adaptation research, namely: increasing transparency and consultation in research design; encouraging innovation in the design and delivery of adaptation research programmes; demonstrating impact on the ground; addressing incentive structures; and promoting more effective brokering, knowledge management and learning. As new international funding initiatives start to take shape, we underscore the importance of learning from past experiences and scaling-up of successful innovations in research funding models.

     

Inbreeding Depression, Environmental Stress, and Population Size Variation in Scarlet Gilia (Ipomopsis aggregata)

Despite a large body of theory, few studies have directly assessed the effects of variation in population size on fitness components in natural populations of plants. We conducted studies on 10 populations of scarlet gilia, Ipomopsis aggregata , to assess the effects of population size and year-to-year variation in size on the relative fitness of plants. We showed that seed size and germination success are significantly reduced in small populations (those 100 flowering plants) of scarlet gilia. Plants from small populations are also more susceptible to environmental stress. When plants from small and large populations were subjected to an imposed stress (combined effects of transplanting and experimental clipping, simulating ungulate herbivory) in a common garden experiment, plants from small populations suffered higher mortality and were ultimately of smaller size than plants from large populations. In addition, experimental evidence indicates that observed fitness reductions are genetic, due to the effects of genetic drift and/or inbreeding depression. When pollen was introduced from distant populations into two small populations, seed mass and percentage of germination were bolstered, while pollen transferred into a large population had no significant effect. Year-to-year variation in population size and its effects on plant fitness are also discussed. In one small population, for example, a substantial increase in size from within did not introduce sufficient new (archived) genetic material to fully overcome the effects of inbreeding depression.     

Application of ‘Landsat’ data to resource management

Over the past few years, a great deal of interest has been focused on the use of remote sensing for resource management. This paper examines one of the most useful systems — Landsat. Included in this paper is a discussion of this remote-sensing technology, its application and its future as a tool for resources planning and management.     

Use of the song repertoire in intersexual and intrasexual contexts by male red-winged blackbirds

Summary Live and stuffed male and female red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were presented to territorial males in order to study the repertoire organization of males during intersexual and intrasexual encounters. Territorial male red-winged blackbirds switched song types more frequently and sang more song types in response to presentation of a female stimulus than during control periods, but decreased their switching frequency when a male stimulus was presented. Switching frequency in response to the female stimulus was three times that in response to the male stimulus. These results support the hypothesis that song repertoires of male red-winged blackbirds evolved primarily in response to intersexual rather than intrasexual selection. They also suggest that male red-winged blackbirds have been selected to de-emphasize their song repertoires during encounters with conspecific males as a result of some as yet unidentified cost. Offprint requests to: W.A. Searcy     

Distribution of salmon-habitat potential relative to landscape characteristics and implications for conservation.

The geographic distribution of stream reaches with potential to support high-quality habitat for salmonids has bearing on the actual status of habitats and populations over broad spatial extents. As part of the Coastal Landscape Analysis and Modeling Study (CLAMS), we examined how salmon-habitat potential was distributed relative to current and future (+100 years) landscape characteristics in the Coastal Province of Oregon, USA. The intrinsic potential to provide high-quality rearing habitat was modeled for juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and juvenile steelhead (O. mykiss) based on stream flow, valley constraint, and stream gradient. Land ownership, use, and cover were summarized for 100-m analysis buffers on either side of stream reaches with high intrinsic potential and in the overall area encompassing the buffers. Past management seems to have concentrated nonindustrial private ownership, agriculture, and developed uses adjacent to reaches with high intrinsic potential for coho salmon. Thus, of the area in coho salmon buffers, 45% is either nonforested or recently logged, but only 10% is in larger-diameter forests. For the area in steelhead buffers, 21% is either non-forested or recently logged while 20% is in larger-diameter forests. Older forests are most extensive on federal lands but are rare on private lands, highlighting the critical role for public lands in near-term salmon conservation. Agriculture and development are projected to remain focused near high-intrinsic-potential reaches for coho salmon, increasing the importance of effectively addressing nonpoint source pollution from these uses. Percentages of larger-diameter forests are expected to increase throughout the province, but the increase will be only half as much in coho salmon buffers as in steelhead buffers. Most of the increase is projected for public lands, where policies emphasize biodiversity protection. Results suggest that widespread recovery of coho salmon is unlikely unless habitat can be improved in high-intrinsic-potential reaches on private lands. Knowing where high-intrinsic-potential stream reaches occur relative to landscape characteristics can help in evaluating the current and future condition of freshwater habitat, explaining differences between species in population status and risk, and assessing the need for and feasibility of restoration.     

Song repertoires and density assessment in red-winged blackbirds: further tests of the Beau Geste hypothesis

Summary The Beau Geste hypothesis proposes that song repertoires are advantageous in territory defense because nonterritorial males, who are prospecting for territories, use the number of song types they hear to assess the density of territorial males, and then avoid densely-settled areas. A territorial male can then inflate the apparent density of singers on his territory by singing several distinct song type. This hypothesis assumes (1) a positive correlation between the density of song types and the density of territorial males, and (2) a negative correlation between the rate of trespassing and the densities of both song types and territorial males. We studied the behavior of male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) and found support for the first, but not the second, assumption. Results showing a positive correlation between density of song types and density of territorial males show that the proposed method of density assessment is feasible in this species. However, we could find no support for the assumption that nonterritorial male red-winged blackbirds avoid densely settled areas. In contrast to the assumed negative correlation, rate of trespass per territory was not consistently correlated with male density, and trespass rate per unit area was positively correlated with male density. Further, these relationships were retained when we controlled statistically for the effects of territory quality. We conclude that prospecting male red-winged blackbirds to not attempt to avoid densely settled areas, and that, although they do avoid territories defended by many song types, they do not use song type density to assess the density of territorial males. It is thus unlikely that the Beau Geste hypothesis adequately accounts for the evolution of song repertoires in the red-winged blackbird.     

Measurement of photosynthetic production of a marine phytoplankton population using a stable 13C isotope

The use of stable isotope of carbon, ¹³C, for the determination of the photosynthetic rate of a marine phytoplankton population was examined. Particular concern was paid to the effects of non-phytoplanktonic organic carbon and the enrichment of inorganic carbon on the estimation of the photosynthetic rate. Photosynthetic rates determined by the ¹³C method showed a remarkable agreement with those determined by the ¹⁴C method. Insitu determinations of photosynthetic rate were made in three different water types: open ocean, coastal and neritic waters, which included oligo- and mesotrophic waters, by using the ¹³C method established.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.