What shall we teach in environmental statistics?

The need for statistical methodology in environmental and ecological applications has grown dramatically over the past few decades, to where targeted and/or specialized courses in environmental statistics are necessary at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. We discuss here the construction of such courses, and pose questions on the course development process for the statistical and environmental community. Our exposition is based upon our own experience with the design of a graduate environmental statistics course.     

Price expectations and the supply of wastepaper

For some time the price response of the supply of wastepaper has been analyzed in terms of either static simultaneous equation models, or by the use of fairly ad hoc distributed lag models. This paper suggests that a model based on the price expectations of wastepaper suppliers is capable of explaining certain anomalies in earlier empirical work, and confirms the view that purely price-based policies to stimulate wastepaper recycling are likely to be ineffective. Not only is the supply of wastepaper insensitive to changes in price expectations, but the latter are themselves very slow to adjust to changes in actual prices.     

False elevation of amniotic fluid enzymes of relevance for prenatal diagnosis: Creatine kinase measurement in relation to duchenne muscular dystrophy

The creatine kinase activity of amniotic fluid was measured in samples collected at fetoscopy. In our first study, the control sample range was 0-25 IU/1, although four samples had activities of 35–85 IU/1. Elevated values did not correlate with the activities in the fetal or maternal circulations. Electrophoresis revealed the presence of the BB isozyme of creatine kinase rather than just the MM form as expected. This suggested that the source of the elevated enzyme activity was from the myometrium, damaged by insertion of the trocar and cannula. In a further series the first 2 ml of amniotic fluid withdrawn yielded a much higher creatine kinase activity than a second aliquot. A control series of such second samples (first 2 ml discarded) gave an activity range of 0–7 IU/1 with no spuriously high values. This compares favourably with a series from single samplings taken by amniocentesis. Normal creatine kinase activities were found in the amniotic fluids from 20 pregnancies at risk for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. We conclude that for accurate measurement of amniotic fluid enzyme activity the first portion withdrawn should be discarded. Amniotic fluid creatine kinase activity is of no value for the prenatal diagnosis of Duchenne muscular dystrophy.     

The challenges of marine spatial planning in the Arctic: Results from the ACCESS programme

Marine spatial planning is increasingly used to manage the demands on marine areas, both spatially and temporally, where several different users may compete for resources or space, to ensure that development is as sustainable as possible. Diminishing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic will allow for potential increases in economic exploitation, and failure to plan for cross-sectoral management could have negative economic and environmental results. During the ACCESS programme, a marine spatial planning tool was developed for the Arctic, enabling the integrated study of human activities related to hydrocarbon exploitation, shipping and fisheries, and the possible environmental impacts, within the context of the next 30 years of climate change. In addition to areas under national jurisdiction, the Arctic Ocean contains a large area of high seas. Resources and ecosystems extend across political boundaries. We use three examples to highlight the need for transboundary planning and governance to be developed at a regional level.     

Early wheezing phenotypes and severity of respiratory illness in very early childhood: Study on intrauterine exposure to fine particle matter

The main goal of the paper was to assess the pattern of risk factors having an impact on the onset of early wheezing phenotypes in the birth cohort of 468 two-year olds and to investigate the severity of respiratory illness in the two-year olds in relation to both wheezing phenotypes, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and personal PM_2.5 exposure over pregnancy period (fine particulate matter). The secondary goal of the paper was to assess possible association of early persistent wheezing with the length of the baby at birth. Pregnant women were recruited from ambulatory prenatal clinics in the first and second trimester of pregnancy. Only women 18–35 years of age, who claimed to be non-smokers, with singleton pregnancies, without illicit drug use and HIV infection, free from chronic diseases were eligible for the study. In the statistical analysis of respiratory health of children multinomial logistic regression and zero-inflated Poisson regression models were used. Approximately one third of the children in the study sample experienced wheezing in the first 2 years of life and in about two third of cases (67%) the symptom developed already in the first year of life. The early wheezing was easily reversible and in about 70% of infants with wheezing the symptom receded in the second year of life. The adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) of persistent wheezing increased with maternal atopy (RRR = 3.05; 95%CI: 1.30–7.15), older siblings (RRR = 3.05; 95%CI: 1.67–5.58) and prenatal ETS exposure (RRR = 1.13; 95%CI: 1.04–1.23), but was inversely associated with the length of baby at birth (RRR = 0.88; 95%CI: 0.76–1.01). The adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) of coughing, difficult breathing, runny/stuffy nose and pharyngitis/tonsillitis in wheezers were much higher than that observed among non-wheezers and significantly depended on prenatal PM_2.5 exposure, older siblings and maternal atopy. The study shows a clear inverse association between maternal age or maternal education and respiratory illnesses and calls for more research efforts aiming at the explanation of factors hidden behind proxy measures of quality of maternal care of babies. The data support the hypothesis that burden of respiratory symptoms in early childhood and possibly in later life may be programmed already in prenatal period when the respiratory system is completing its growth and maturation.     

Lead (Pb) quantification in potable water samples: implications for regulatory compliance and assessment of human exposure

Assessing the health risk from lead (Pb) in potable water requires accurate quantification of the Pb concentration. Under worst-case scenarios of highly contaminated water samples, representative of public health concerns, up to 71–98 % of the total Pb was not quantified if water samples were not mixed thoroughly after standard preservation (i.e., addition of 0.15 % (v/v) HNO₃). Thorough mixing after standard preservation improved recovery in all samples, but 35–81 % of the total Pb was still un-quantified in some samples. Transfer of samples from one bottle to another also created high errors (40–100 % of the total Pb was un-quantified in transferred samples). Although the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s standard protocol avoids most of these errors, certain methods considered EPA-equivalent allow these errors for regulatory compliance sampling. Moreover, routine monitoring for assessment of human Pb exposure in the USA has no standardized protocols for water sample handling and pre-treatment. Overall, while there is no reason to believe that sample handling and pre-treatment dramatically skew regulatory compliance with the US Pb action level, slight variations from one approved protocol to another may cause Pb-in-water health risks to be significantly underestimated, especially for unusual situations of “worst case” individual exposure to highly contaminated water.     

Pharmaceutical and personal care products in groundwater, subsurface drainage, soil, and wheat grain, following a high single application of municipal biosolids to a field

Dewatered municipal biosolids (DMBs) were applied to a field at a rate of ~22 Mg dw ha(-1) in October 2008. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) were monitored in groundwater, tile drainage, soil, DMB aggregates incorporated into the soil post-land application, and in the grain of wheat grown on the field for a period of ~1 year following application. Over 80 PPCPs were analyzed in the source DMB. PPCPs selected for in-depth monitoring included: antibiotics (tetracyclines, fluoroquinolones), bacteriocides (triclosan, triclocarban), beta-blockers (atenolol, propranolol, metaprolol), antidepressants (fluoxetine, citalopram, venlafaxine, sertraline), antifungals (miconazole), analgesics (acetaminophen, ibuprofen) and anticonvulsants (carbamazepine). PPCPs in tile were observed twice, ~3 weeks and 2 months post-application. Of all PPCPs measured in tile drainage, only carbamazepine, ibuprofen, acetaminophen, triclosan, triclocarban, venlafaxine, and citalopram were detected (5-74 ng L(-1)). PPCPs were not detected in groundwater >2 m depth below the soil surface, and concentrations above detection limits at 2 m depth were only observed once just after the first rain event post-application. In groundwater, all compounds found in tile, except carbamazepine, acetaminophen and citalopram, were detected (10-19 ng L(-1)). PPCPs were detected in DMB aggregates incorporated in soil up to 1 year post-application, with miconazole and fluoxetine having the lowest percent reductions over 1 year (~50%). For several compounds in these aggregates, concentration declines were of exponential decay form. No PPCPs were detected in the grain of wheat planted post-application on the field. No PPCPs were ever detected in water, soil or grain samples from the reference plot, where no DMB was applied.     

Adoption of sustainable agriculture practices: Evidence from a semi-arid region of Ethiopia

In the wake of the resource constraints for external farm inputs faced by farmers in developing countries, sustainable agriculture practices that rely on renewable local or farm resources present desirable options for enhancing agriculture productivity. In this study, plot-level data from the semi-arid region of Ethiopia, Tigray are used to investigate the factors influencing farmers' decisions to adopt agriculture practices, with a particular focus on conservation tillage, compost and chemical fertilizer. A trivariate probit model is used to analyze the determinants of adoption of these practices. In addition, stochastic dominance analysis is used to compare the productivity impacts of compost with that of chemical fertilizer based on a six-year cross-sectional farm-level dataset. Our results indicate heterogeneity with regard to the factors that influence adoption decisions of the three practices and the importance of both plot and household characteristics on influencing adoption decisions. In particular, we found that household endowments and access to information, among other factors, impact the choice of sustainable farming practices significantly. Furthermore, the use of stochastic dominance analysis supported the contention that sustainable farming practices enhance productivity. They even proved to be superior to the use of chemical fertilizers — justifying the need to investigate factors that influence adoption of these practices and to use this knowledge to formulate policies that encourage adoption.     

A study of gas-phase mercury speciation using detailed chemical kinetics.

Mercury speciation in combustion-generated flue gas was modeled using a detailed chemical mechanism consisting of 60 reactions and 21 species. This speciation model accounts for the chlorination and oxidation of key flue-gas components, including elemental mercury (Hg0). Results indicated that the performance of the model is very sensitive to temperature. Starting with pure HCl, for lower reactor temperatures (less than approximately 630 degrees C), the model produced only trace amounts of atomic and molecular chlorine (Cl and Cl2), leading to a drastic underprediction of Hg chlorination compared with experimental data. For higher reactor temperatures, model predictions were in good accord with experimental data. For conditions that produce an excess of Cl and Cl2 relative to Hg, chlorination of Hg is determined by the competing influences of the initiation step, Hg + Cl = HgCl, and the Cl recombination reaction, 2Cl = Cl2. If the Cl recombination reaction is faster, Hg chlorination will eventually be dictated by the slower pathway Hg + Cl2 = HgCl2.