Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

Status of the Southern Carpathian forests in the long-term ecological research network

Air pollution, bulk precipitation, throughfall, soil condition, foliar nutrients, as well as forest health and growth were studied in 2006–2009 in a long-term ecological research (LTER) network in the Bucegi Mountains, Romania. Ozone (O₃) was high indicating a potential for phytotoxicity. Ammonia (NH₃) concentrations rose to levels that could contribute to deposition of nutritional nitrogen (N) and could affect biodiversity changes. Higher that 50% contribution of acidic rain (pH?<?5.5) contributed to increased acidity of forest soils. Foliar N concentrations for Norway spruce (Picea abies), Silver fir (Abies alba), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) were normal, phosphorus (P) was high, while those of potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), and especially of manganese (Mn) were significantly below the typical European or Carpathian region levels. The observed nutritional imbalance could have negative effects on forest trees. Health of forests was moderately affected, with damaged trees (crown defoliation >25%) higher than 30%. The observed crown damage was accompanied by the annual volume losses for the entire research forest area up to 25.4%. High diversity and evenness specific to the stand type’s structures and local climate conditions were observed within the herbaceous layer, indicating that biodiversity of the vascular plant communities was not compromised.     

Real-time PCR for detection of the Aspergillus genus

Aspergillus is a genus of mold that has strong indoor sources, including several species capable of acting as opportunistic pathogens. Previous studies suggest that Aspergillus could serve as an indicator for abnormal mold growth or moisture, making it an important genus for environmental monitoring. Here, a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR, or real-time PCR) assay is presented for Aspergillus. The assay shows good specificity for the genus, detecting all Aspergillus species tested, although a few non-Aspergillus species are also amplified. Sensitivity testing demonstrates that DNA representing one conidium can be detected. A validation study compared qPCR results against direct microscopy counts using A. fumigatus conidia aerosolized into a laboratory chamber. The assay was then used to quantify Aspergillus in indoor air samples, demonstrating its utility for environmental monitoring. Analysis of a small number of clinical sputum samples showed complete agreement with culturing results.     

Nitrogen content of food as an index of absorption efficiency in fishes

Gravimetric estimation of absorption efficiency in fishes is a time-consuming process and still subject to technical errors. Available marker methods require no quantitative recovery of feces, but their applicability is limited (e.g. chromic oxide method) or their reliability is questionable (e.g. Conover's ash ratio method). From over 100 values reported for about 50 fish species, it has been observed that nitrogen content of food holds a positive correlation to absorption efficiency; the relation is significantly (P<0.001) correlated (r=>0.9). Hence absorption efficiency (Ae) of fishes is predictable from the nitrogen content of food with less than 8% error, using the equation log Ae=1.3706+0.5807 log N.Dedicated to Professor O. Kinne on his 61st birthday, August 30, 1984     

Environmental exposure to PCBs and cancer incidence in eastern Slovakia

In a population-based cross-sectional study, we compared serum levels of 15 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners and three organochlorine pesticides in residents of two districts in eastern Slovakia, one with extensive environmental contamination from a former PCB production site (Michalovce) and the other matched on geography but with low (background) levels (Svidnik). The age-adjusted geometric means for sum of 15 measured PCB congeners were statistically significantly higher in subjects from the Michalovce district for both sexes: 3327.6 versus 1331.4 ng/g of lipid in males, 2751.8 versus 992.2 ng/g of lipid in females. Levels of DDE and DDT were also significantly higher, although the absolute differences were less pronounced. There was no substantial difference in HCB levels between the districts. We also conducted an ecologic study to compare cancer incidence occurring in these same two districts from 1985 through 1994. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals for each district using indirect standardization and rates from eastern Slovakia. Among males from Michalovce (exposed), but not Svidnik (unexposed), there was an excess of cancer of the tongue (SIR=1.46; 1.06-1.96), stomach (SIR=1.15; 1.00-1.32), lung (SIR=1.14; 1.04-1.24), testis (SIR=1.40; 0.97-1.97), and kidney (SIR=1.23; 0.98-1.52), and lower than expected incidence of prostate cancer (SIR=0.83; 0.69-0.97); in contrast, there was an excess of peritoneal (SIR=3.05; 1.11-6.63) and laryngeal cancer (SIR=1.43; 0.99-1.98) in Svidnik not observed Michalovce. Among females from Michalovce, but not Svidnik, there was an excess of cancer of the lip (SIR=2.54; 1.53-3.96), stomach (SIR=1.22; 1.02-1.44), and lung (SIR=1.17; 0.94-1.45); in contrast, there was an excess of kidney (SIR=1.61; 1.03-2.40) and thyroid (SIR=1.97; 1.12-3.20) cancer in Svidnik not observed in Michalovce. Taken together, these results raise the possibility that high environmental exposure to organochlorines in the Michalovce district may be associated with higher rates of certain cancers, particularly stomach and lung cancer.     

“Are you still driving?” Metasynthesis of patient preferences for communication with health care providers

Aim: The aim of this study was to synthesize published qualitative studies to identify older adults' preferences for communication about driving with health care providers.

Background: Health care providers play a key role in addressing driving safety and driving retirement with older adults, but conversations about driving can be difficult. Guides exist for family members and providers, but to date less is known about the types of communication and messages older drivers want from their health care providers.

Design: A qualitative metasynthesis of studies published on or before October 10, 2014, in databases (PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science) and grey literature was performed.

Review Methods: Twenty-two published studies representing 518 older adult drivers met the following inclusion criteria: the study (1) was about driving; (2) involved older drivers; (3) was qualitative (rather than quantitative or mixed methods); and (4) contained information on older drivers' perspectives about communication with health care providers.

Results: We identified 5 major themes regarding older adults' communication preferences: (1) driving discussions are emotionally charged; (2) context matters; (3) providers are trusted and viewed as authority figures; (4) communication should occur over a period of time rather than suddenly; and (5) older adults desire agency in the decision to stop driving.

Conclusion: Various stakeholders involved in older driver safety should consider older drivers' perspectives regarding discussions about driving. Health care providers can respect and empower older drivers—and support their family members—through tactful communication about driving safety and mobility transitions during the life course.     

Persistent organochlorine pesticides in internal organs of coypu,Myocastor coypus

A highly selective and sensitive method based on gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS) to identify and quantify persistent organochlorine pesticides, (18 compounds including primary compounds and metabolites), in animal internal organs (kidneys, liver, and brain) has been developed. Tandem mass spectrometric conditions were individually optimized for each target compound in Multiple Reaction Monitoring (MRM) mode to obtain maximum sensitivity. Prior to instrumental analysis, a sample preparation method based on matrix solid phase dispersion (MSPD) followed by acidic digestion with sulfuric acid to reduce matrix co-extractives was employed. Analyses of real samples were carried out on coypus (Myocastor coypus) from the autumn slaughter of 19 animals. In the analyzed samples, three of the target compounds, namely DDE-pp′ (DDT metabolite), HCB and lindane, were detected. Their concentration levels fell in the ranges of 0.003–0.007, 0.003–0.025, and 0.003–0.021 mg kg^?1 (0.005, 0.010, and 0.010 mg kg^?1 on average) in the case of DDE-pp′, HCB and lindane, respectively. Although low quantities of organochlorine pesticides do not pose an immediate danger to consumers' health, they should be of public health concern considering long-term, low-dose exposure.