Introducing a common taxonomy to support learning from failure in conservation

Although some sectors have made significant progress in learning from failure, there is currently limited consensus on how a similar transition could best be achieved in conservation and what is required to facilitate this. One of the key enabling conditions for other sectors is a widely accepted and standardized classification system for identifying and analyzing root causes of failure. We devised a comprehensive taxonomy of root causes of failure affecting conservation projects. To develop this, we solicited examples of real-life conservation efforts that were deemed to have failed in some way, identified their underlying root causes of failure, and used these to develop a generic, 3-tier taxonomy of the ways in which projects fail, at the top of which are 6 overarching cause categories that are further divided into midlevel cause categories and specific root causes. We tested the taxonomy by asking conservation practitioners to use it to classify the causes of failure for conservation efforts they had been involved in. No significant gaps or redundancies were identified during this testing phase. We then analyzed the frequency that particular root causes were encountered by projects within this test sample, which suggested that some root causes were more likely to be encountered than others and that a small number of root causes were more likely to be encountered by projects implementing particular types of conservation action. Our taxonomy could be used to improve identification, analysis, and subsequent learning from failed conservation efforts, address some of the barriers that currently limit the ability of conservation practitioners to learn from failure, and contribute to establishing an effective culture of learning from failure within conservation.     

Intersection AEB implementation strategies for left turn across path crashes

Abstract

Objective: Left turn across path with traffic from the opposite direction (LTAP/OD) is the second most frequent car-to-car intersection crash type after straight crossing path (SCP) in Germany and the United States. Intersection automated emergency braking (AEB) for passenger cars can address these crashes.

This study investigates 2 implementation strategies of intersection AEB addressing LTAP/OD crashes: (1) only the turning car is equipped with an intersection AEB and (2) turning and straight-heading cars are equipped with an intersection AEB. For each strategy, the influence of a safety zone around the vehicles that should not be entered is evaluated in terms of accident avoidance, injury mitigation, and change in velocity (delta-V) of remaining accidents. Results are given as a function of market penetration.

Methods: A total of 372 LTAP/OD crashes from the time series precrash matrix (PCM), a subsample of the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS), were resimulated in the PRediction of Accident Evolution by Diversification of Influence factors in COmputer simulation (PRAEDICO) simulation framework. A Kudlich-Slibar rigid-body impact model and an injury risk curve derived from GIDAS were used to predict remaining moderate to fatal (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale [MAIS] 2?+?F) injuries among car occupants.

Results: With a safety zone of 0.2 m, when the turning vehicle only was equipped with an intersection AEB, 59% of the crashes were avoided at a 100% market penetration. With both vehicles equipped the percentage increased to 77%. MAIS 2?+?F injured occupants were reduced by 60 and 76%, respectively. Considering both the turning and the straight-heading vehicles, the delta-V decreased strongly with market penetration in remaining left-side impacts but only slightly in remaining frontal and right-side impacts. Eliminating the safety zone substantially decreases effectiveness in all conditions.

Conclusions: Implementation strategy and safety zone definition strongly influence the real-life performance of intersection AEB. AEB should be applied not only for the turning vehicle but also for the straight-going vehicle to benefit from the full potential. Situationally appropriate safety zone definitions, in line with human hazard perception, need more attention and are a key to balance true positive and false positive performance. Remaining delta-V does not decrease broadly; hence, there is no evidence that future LTAP/OD crashes will be generally of lower severity. This highlights the need for continuous development of in-crash protection.     

Erratum to: Food and feed supply and waste disposal in the industrialising city of Vienna (1830–1913): a special focus on urban nitrogen flows

Regional Environmental Change -     

Ambient air concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in Ohio: Sources and health risk assessment

PCDD and PCDF were measured in air samples collected in Ohio in 1987. No 2,3,7,8-TCDD was detected in any of the samples with a detection limits of less than 240 fg/m³. Using a chemical mass balance model applied to PCDD/PCDF congener group profiles, major potential sources of these compounds to the atmosphere in Ohio were determined to be municipal solid waste combustion, and sewage sludge combustion. Cancer risk calculations for inhalation of PCDD/PCDF in ambient air in Ohio are approximately 10–6. Given the current knowledge of the health effects of exposure to PCDD/PCDF in air, there is no appreciable risk to public health for the levels of these compounds found in ambient air in Ohio.     

Biomonitoring of persistent organochlorine pesticides, PCDD/PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs in blood of children from South West Germany (Baden-Wuerttemberg) from 1993 to 2003

In the context of a monitoring program, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were quantified in the blood of 10 year old children at four different demographic regions in Baden-Wuerttemberg, a highly industrialised federal state in South West Germany. DDE, HCB, PCB 138, PCB 153 and PCB 180 were measured in 1996/1997, 1998/1999, 2000/2001 and 2002/2003 in individual samples of about 400 children per year. PCDD/PCDFs and some relevant coplanar PCBs were determined in pooled samples from children in seven cycles from 1993 to 2003. Blood concentrations of the investigated compounds decreased in that time period by a factor of 2-4 with the exception of most PCDFs. The concentrations of POPs in the blood of the children were distinctly lower than the concentrations reported for adults. Breast feeding was associated with about 30% higher median concentrations of DDE, HCB, PCBs and a 30% increase for mean PCDD/PCDF concentrations. Concerning demographic differences, significant lower concentrations of HCB, PCBs and PCDD/PCDFs could be seen in children from Mannheim compared to the region of Aulendorf. About 10-20% higher concentrations were found in boys compared to girls for HCB, indicator PCBs and PCDD/PCDFs. The pattern of non-ortho and mono-ortho PCBs in the blood of children was similar to the pattern reported for mother's milk, and PCB 126 and PCB 156 contributed about 70% to the toxicity of dioxin-like PCBs and about one-third to total TEQ including PCDD/PCDFs.     

Organochlorine contamination in shorebirds from Washington state and the significance for their falcon predators

Arctic-breeding shorebirds collected in western Washington state during winter and spring, and a comparative sample collected in coastal California during the winter were analyzed for organochlorine contaminants to determine the potential impact of these residues on populations of peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) and merlins (F. columbarius) which prey upon shorebirds in western Washington. Dunlins (Calidris alpina), an important winter prey for falcons in western Washington, were collected between 1975 and 1981. During winter 1980–81, dunlins carried low organochlorine residues; DDE levels ranged from 0.01 to 1.2 ppm, and PCB levels ranged from 0.02 to 0.82 ppm (wet weight). Levels of other organochlorine contaminants (HCB, Chlordane compounds, Dieldrin, and Heptachlor Epoxide), analyzed in a subsample of dunlins, were consistently lower than DDE and PCB levels, and ranged from 0.001 to 0.22 ppm (wet weight). Dunlins in western Washington did not significantly increase their DDE or PCB burdens over the 1980–81 winter. A decline in DDE residues between 1978 and 1981 was noted, and declines in PCB residues from both 1975 and 1978 to 1980–81 were noted. Residues in other wintering shorebirds from western Washington were similar. Wintering sanderlings (Calidris alba) from California, revealed much higher DDE contamination than in Washington (up to 32 ppm, wet weight). Spring migrant shorebirds in western Washington contained both low and very high DDE residues (up to 417 ppm, wet weight). There is evidence suggesting these high DDE concentrations are accumulated along the Pacific coast of North America.     

Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action

Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modem society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed.