Hedging a Commodity Power Rate

Many of the aluminium smelters in the Pacific Northwest served by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) have become non-competitive and operate in the role of swing producer in the US and world markets. To avoid these cyclical swings in power demand, BPA is presently studying methods designed to link the price of power charged to smelters with the market price of aluminium. A linked-rate system tends to stabilize incomes to smelters, but increases fluctuations to the utility. These, in turn, could be stabilized by a hedging operation on the London Metals Exchange.     

The global greenhouse effect

The global warming caused by emissions of CO₂ and trace gases is expected to cause shifts in climatic zones and rainfall patterns, and possibly thermal expansion of oceans. There are likely to be impacts on global agriculture and the food security of low-income countries, as well as disruptions to major ecosystem complexes such as forests. Rising sea levels will threaten low-lying regions, coastal zones and islands. Policy-makers will therefore have to consider the relative costs and benefits of 'doing nothing', preventive measures and adaptive responses. Economics should play a key and innovative role in this analysis.     

植物修复及强化调控系统根际土壤微生物研究综述

根际土壤微生物是植物修复及其强化修复技术的重要组成部分,了解根际土壤微生物生态效应有助于深入探索修复机制,从而进一步提高修复效率.微生物生态效应反映土壤生态变化,对于有效评估强化调控生态风险具有重要意义.在总结污染土壤植物修复根际微生物生态效应研究的基础上,综述强化调控措施与根际土壤微生物可能存在的相互影响,并分析利用微生物分子生态学技术评估强化调控措施施用风险的可行性.     

On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

Planning,governance and rural futures in Australia and the USA: revisiting the case for rural regional planning

Rural regions in post-industrial countries confront significant new challenges, particularly in relation to climate, biodiversity, unconventional resource development and energy. Yet at a time when the contours of these challenges are still being sketched, and preliminary, planned interventions undertaken, the practice of rural planning finds itself at a low ebb. We examine two ‘critical cases’, one each from Australia and the USA, to explore the issues and options for capacity of rural regional planning to surmount these new challenges. Our examination indicates the urgent need for a renewed discourse on rural regional planning.