Challenges to achieving a successful transition to a low carbon economy in South Africa: examples from poor urban communities

South Africa faces several development challenges including those linked to climate change. Energy usage in South Africa, for example, is already constrained because of a range of development challenges (the dependence on cheap coal as a heating source; energy availability; access; affordability of alternative energy sources; and a range of health impacts, including air pollution). Notwithstanding calls for a transition to a low carbon economy, there have been few, recent assessments in South Africa of the costs associated with such a transition, particularly the social and economic costs for the poor who use energy in a variety of ways. In this paper we focus on trying to unravel some of the complex energy-use behaviour including understanding what drives consumers in resource-poor areas to choose and use persistently risky energy options. Analysis of qualitative data in two township areas, Doornkop and Kwaguqa, shows that township households, whether electrified or not, continue to burn coal. In both study areas, an estimated 80% of electrified households burn coal for space heating and cooking and also make use of multiple fuel sources for a range of activities. Although the major obstacles preventing people from discontinuing domestic coal combustion are poverty, the ready availability and social acceptability of coal together with other social customs cannot be underrated. This paper therefore highlights some of the persistent challenges associated with sustainable energy transitions in South Africa including implications for improved mitigation and adaptation for the energy sector in wider climate change efforts.     

Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management–––Part B: Case study

In this study, a solid waste decision-support system was developed for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada. Interactions among various system components, objectives, and constraints will be analyzed. Issues concerning planning for cost-effective diversion and prolongation of the landfill will be addressed. Decisions of system-capacity expansion and waste allocation within a multi-facility, multi-option, and multi-period context will be obtained. The obtained results would provide useful information and decision-support for the City's solid waste management and planning. In the application, four scenarios are considered. Through the above scenario analyses under different waste-management policies, useful decision support for the City's solid waste managers and decision makers was generated. Analyses for the effects of varied policies (for allowable waste flows to different facilities) under 35 and 50% diversion goals were also undertaken. Tradeoffs among system cost and constraint-violation risk were analyzed.Generally, a policy with lower allowable waste-flow levels corresponded to a lower system cost under advantageous conditions but, at the same time, a higher penalty when such allowances were violated. A policy with higher allowable flow levels corresponded to a higher cost under disadvantageous conditions. The modeling results were useful for (i) scheduling adequate time and capacity for long-term planning of the facility development and/or expansion in the city's waste management system, (ii) adjusting of the existing waste flow allocation patterns to satisfy the city's diversion goal, and (iii) generating of desired policies for managing the city's waste generation, collection and disposal.     

Suppressed recovery of plant community composition and biodiversity on dredged fill of a hurricane-induced inlet through a barrier island

In September 2003, Hurricane Isabel created an inlet over 500 m wide and 10 m deep that connected the Atlantic Ocean and Pamlico Sound. This breach was subsequently filled with sediments dredged from the adjacent sound. The purpose of this study was to determine if the barrier island terrestrial plant communities were naturally re-establishing through primary succession. In 2006–2008, we compared plant communities, soil carbon and nitrogen, and Aeolian transport of sediments in undisturbed back-dunes, undisturbed shrub thickets, putative back-dunes, and putative shrub thickets. We found that species richness and evenness were low on the filled area relative to adjacent plant communities that had persisted through the storm. Plants on the filled area were almost entirely limited to a band of primarily Spartina patens found at the margin of the sound and there were no signs of establishing the typical zonation of back dune grasses, shrubs, and salt marsh. Evaluation of soil quality suggests that nutrients and organic material are not limiting recovery. Aeolian transport, however, was demonstrably higher across the filled area, where no dense stands of taller plants buffered the airflow. Plant re-establishment is suppressed by wind erosion inhibiting deposition of seeds. Recovery of the site will likely depend on the rhizomatous spread of S. patens from the sound shore. S. patens can then potentially facilitate the colonization of other species by buffering the wind and trapping seeds of other plants. Ironically, this slow recovery may benefit federally threatened bird species that require sparse vegetation for nesting success.     

The role of per-capita productivity in the evolution of small colony sizes in ants

The evolution of colony size in social insects is influenced by both extrinsic and colony-intrinsic factors. An important intrinsic trait, per-capita productivity, often declines in larger colonies. This pattern, known as Michener’s paradox, can limit the growth of insect societies. In this study, we first describe this problem, survey its occurrence across different ant species, and present a case study of eight cavity-dwelling ants with very small colony sizes. In these species, colonies might never reach sizes at which per-capita productivity decreases. However, in six out of the eight focal species, per-capita productivity did decline with increasing size, in accordance with other studies on per-capita productivity in ants. Several mechanisms, such as resource availability or nest-site limitation, may explain the decrease in per-capita productivity with increases in colony size in our focal species. In these central-place foragers, the individual foraging mode is expected to lead to an increase in travel time as colonies grow. We suggest that polydomy, the concomitant occupation of several nest sites, could serve as a potential strategy to overcome this limitation. Indeed, for one species, we show that polydomy can help to circumvent the reduction in productivity with increasing colony size, suggesting that limited resource availability causes the observed decrease in per-capita productivity. Finally, we discuss the influence of other factors, such as the nesting ecology and colony homeostasis, on the evolution of colony size in these cavity-dwelling ants.     

核电厂核事故应急疏散研究

根据我国法规、标准与美国核管委对核电厂核事故应急疏散的要求,考虑我国核电厂特殊的厂址条件与社会环境,分析核事故应急疏散的可行性。通过应急疏散行为研究、厂区的交通需求估计和路网分析,对不同情境,考虑核事故应急疏散的特殊问题,分别采用人工容量分析与宏观仿真模拟得到应急疏散时间。针对某核电厂,给出核事故应急疏散分析的一般步骤、方法与计算结果。对宏观仿真模型的主要参数进行灵敏度分析,找出影响应急疏散时间的主要因素,提出缩短应急疏散时间的针对性措施。     

Exposure to inhaled THM: Comparison of continuous and event-specific exposure assessment for epidemiologic purposes

Trihalomethanes (THMs) (chloroform, bromoform, dibromochloromethane, and bromodichloromethane) are the most abundant by-products of chlorination. People are exposed to THMs through ingestion, dermal contact and inhalation. The objective of this study was to compare two methods for assessing THM inhalation: a direct method with personal monitors assessing continuous exposure and an indirect one with microenvironmental sampling and collection of time–activity data during the main event exposures: bathing, showering and swimming. This comparison was conducted to help plan a future epidemiologic study of the effects of THMs on the upper airways of children. 30 children aged from 4 to 10 years were included. They wore a 3M^™ 3520 organic vapor monitor for 7 days. We sampled air in their bathrooms (during baths or showers) and in the indoor swimming pools they visited and recorded their time–activity patterns. We used stainless steel tubes full of Tenax^® to collect air samples. All analyses were performed with Gas Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). Chloroform was the THM with the highest concentrations in the air of both bathrooms and indoor swimming pools. Its continuous and event exposure measurements were significantly correlated (r_s = 0.69 p < 0.001). Continuous exposures were higher than event exposures, suggesting that the event exposure method does not take into account some influential microenvironments. In an epidemiologic study, this might lead to random exposure misclassification, thus underestimation of the risk, and reduced statistical power. The continuous exposure method was difficult to implement because of its poor acceptability and the fragility of the personal monitors. These two points may also reduce the statistical power of an epidemiologic study. It would be useful to test the advantages and disadvantages of a second sample in the home or of modeling the baseline concentration of THM in the home to improve the event exposure method.     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.