Are automatic systems the future of motorcycle safety? A novel methodology to prioritize potential safety solutions based on their projected effectiveness

Objective: Motorcycle riders are involved in significantly more crashes per kilometer driven than passenger car drivers. Nonetheless, the development and implementation of motorcycle safety systems lags far behind that of passenger cars. This research addresses the identification of the most effective motorcycle safety solutions in the context of different countries.

Methods: A knowledge-based system of motorcycle safety (KBMS) was developed to assess the potential for various safety solutions to mitigate or avoid motorcycle crashes. First, a set of 26 common crash scenarios was identified from the analysis of multiple crash databases. Second, the relative effectiveness of 10 safety solutions was assessed for the 26 crash scenarios by a panel of experts. Third, relevant information about crashes was used to weigh the importance of each crash scenario in the region studied. The KBMS method was applied with an Italian database, with a total of more than 1 million motorcycle crashes in the period 2000–2012.

Results: When applied to the Italian context, the KBMS suggested that automatic systems designed to compensate for riders' or drivers' errors of commission or omission are the potentially most effective safety solution. The KBMS method showed an effective way to compare the potential of various safety solutions, through a scored list with the expected effectiveness of each safety solution for the region to which the crash data belong. A comparison of our results with a previous study that attempted a systematic prioritization of safety systems for motorcycles (PISa project) showed an encouraging agreement.

Conclusions: Current results revealed that automatic systems have the greatest potential to improve motorcycle safety. Accumulating and encoding expertise in crash analysis from a range of disciplines into a scalable and reusable analytical tool, as proposed with the use of KBMS, has the potential to guide research and development of effective safety systems. As the expert assessment of the crash scenarios is decoupled from the regional crash database, the expert assessment may be reutilized, thereby allowing rapid reanalysis when new crash data become available. In addition, the KBMS methodology has potential application to injury forecasting, driver/rider training strategies, and redesign of existing road infrastructure.     

Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research

The first step in planning the actions for climate change adaptation involves performing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) to vulnerable populations and ecological systems. The study aims to perform a bibliometric analysis on the CCVA research field to identify how it was structured in terms of the mostly occurring research terms and their citation impact. A set of scientific papers related to CCVA (n?=?8941) were retrieved via Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1996–2016 using specific keywords. The search was carried out in February 2017. The number of yearly papers published in CCVA research field increased after 2006, increasing more than six times in 2016. Our co-occurrences term analysis grouped four clusters related to (i) exposure, sensitivity, and quantitative methods for assessing CCVA, (ii) adaptive capacity and qualitative approaches, (iii) CCVA integrated approaches by combining participatory methods to quantitative ones, and (iv) collaboration and participation issues related to global change. The co-citation analysis showed that highly cited research terms were related to adaptation, exposure factors, and related changes and global change. This bibliometric analysis has provided an overall picture on the CCVA research field, particularly highlighting its utility for climate change adaptation.     

Analytical evaluation of mesoscale fluxes and pressure field

Terrain in natural areas is never homogeneous: there may be a variety of vegetation types and patches of vegetated and unvegetated areas which can modify the mesoscale atmospheric flow. Moreover, horizontal thermal inhomogeneities in the planetary boundary layer are a well known source of mesoscale circulation systems such as land and sea breezes, mountain-valley winds, and urban heat island circulations. Since those phenomena are not resolved in regional scale numerical models, therefore an analytic procedure able to evaluate the relative importance of mesoscale and turbulent heat fluxes associated with surface thermal heterogeneities is of crucial importance in the optic of developing a parameterization of mesoscale effects generated by these heterogeneities for use in larger scale models. In the present paper we analyze how small a horizontal variation in surface heating can be and still produce a significant mesoscale circulation, how the heat and momentum fluxes associated to mesoscale flows can penetrate deeply into the mid-troposphere, and how they modify tropospheric relevant climate parameters, such as the atmospheric static stability. In addition, we evaluate the terms of the pressure gradient force, nonlinear and linear, non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic, as function of time and space scales of the mesoscale flow. The present paper is mainly a review of analytical results, the numerical comparison and verification using RAMS is in progress.     

Air and soil dioxin levels at three sites in Italy in proximity to MSW incineration plants

Levels of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) in both air and soil samples were measured at three different sites in Italy, in proximity to three municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) to determine baseline contamination and the contributory role of incinerator emissions. At the first site, located in an agricultural, cattle-breeding, typically flattish area of the Po Valley, the dioxin concentrations had already been measured before the start-up of the new MSWI. These dioxin concentrations were then again measured after two years of continual operation of the incinerator. Despite the presence of the plant, the PCDD/Fs concentrations appear not to have been affected and were found to be in a range of 22-125 fg I-TEQ m(-3) in the air samples and 0.7-1.5 pg I-TEQ g(-1) in the soil samples. The second site is located in an industrial district of the Veneto Region, in the surroundings of an old MSWI that is not equipped with Best Available Technology (BAT) dioxin removal system. The PCDD/Fs concentrations in the air samples were between 144 and 337 fg I-TEQ m(-3). This is a typical range of values for industrial areas, while the soil samples showed contamination levels between 1.1 and 1.4 pg I-TEQ g(-1). The third site lies in the Adige Valley, near a MSWI that has been equipped with BAT for flue gas cleaning. The observed values ranged from 10 to 67 fg I-TEQ m(-3) for the air samples and 0.08-1.2 pg I-TEQ g(-1) for the soil samples. The contributory factors of the varying characteristics of the different areas together with the types of technology adopted at each MSWI plant are discussed. The PCDD/Fs levels are subsequently compared with established values from previous studies.     

Prenatal diagnosis of β-thalassaemia by second-trimester chorionic villus sampling

In this study we evaluated the feasibility of second-trimester transabdominal chorionic villus sampling for prenatal diagnosis of β-thalassaemia in 80 pregnancies at risk presenting in the second trimester at the Antenatal Service. Sampling was carried out from 13 to 20 weeks and was successful in all cases. The amount of chorionic villi obtained varied from 10 to 40 mg, which was sufficient to make fetal diagnosis by oligonucleotide analysis within 10 days from sampling in all cases. No fetal losses occurred. From these results we conclude that transabdominal chorionic villus sampling is a useful procedure for prenatal diagnosis of β-thalassaemia in those couples presenting after the first trimester.     

Psychological reactions to fetoscopy: A controlled study

Twenty woman at risk of carrying a fetus with homozygous beta-thalassemia who underwent fetoscopy and a matched control group of pregnant women were administered the Symptom Questionnaire to evaluate changes in distress. Women who were offered fetoscopy had significantly more anxiety, depression, somatic symptoms and hostility than the control group. Psychological distress significantly decreased after the results of fetoscopy were communicated to the patient, and the decrease was similar in normal control women. Five other patients had a diagnosis of homozygous beta-thalassaemia and their pregnancies were terminated. Their psychological distress increased when they learned the outcome of fetoscopy, but decreased again after termination. Psychological reactions to fetoscopy and amniocentesis appear to be similar, yet women who undergo fetoscopy suffer from more psychological distress.     

(<Emphasis Type="Italic">Z</Emphasis>)-9-tricosene identified in rectal gland extracts of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bactrocera oleae</Emphasis> males: first evidence of a male-produced female attractant in olive fruit fly

It is well-known that Bactrocera oleae (olive fruit fly) females attract conspecific males by using 1,7-dioxaspiro[5,5]undecane (1) as the main component of their sex pheromone, and that 1 is produced in the female rectal gland. Although some authors have claimed that B. oleae males also attract females, to date no male-produced female attractants have been found in this species. In this paper, we report the first identification of a substance unique to males and able to attract females. The findings of the study include the following: (1) females responded in a bioassay to hexane extracts obtained from rectal glands of 15-day-old B. oleae males, (2) the presence of (Z)-9-tricosene (2) was consistently and unambiguously identified in these extracts using gas chromatography (GC) and GC-mass spectrometry methods, (3) in preliminary bioactivity tests, low doses (equivalent to a few males) of chemically and stereoisomerically pure synthetic (Z)-9-tricosene (2) attracted olive fruit fly females. Interestingly, compound 2, commonly called muscalure, is also a well-known component of the house fly (Musca domestica) sex pheromone.     

Lagrangian models of dispersion in marine environment

Turbulent dispersion can be studied successfully by using Lagrangian particle models. In general, the prediction of correct concentration fields is a complex issue when the turbulent field is inhomogeneous and non-stationary. Two classes of Lagrangian dispersion models have been considered in this work, which are based on the Wiener process and the so called “well-mixed” criterion. In order to test the performances of these models and shed light on the underlying physical processes and modeling assumptions, four different numerical models have been compared and tested by means of their long time behavior by considering several study cases concerning idealized marine environment. Furthermore, the coupling of the community model Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with the Lagrangian model LASEMOD (LAgrangian SEa MODel) is used to investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of a passive pollutant released in the vicinity of the coast in the Tyrrhenian Sea basin. The simulation shows with reasonable accuracy the time evolution of both the hydrodynamic and the concentration fields and provides a useful insight into the evaluation of the environmental impact of pollutant releases along the coast.