Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Air pollution and forestry in czechoslovakia

One third of the territory of Czechoslovakia is covered by forests. A substantial part of them is damaged in various degrees by air pollution. The air pollution influence on forests developed to a very serious problem during the last 40 years. The main pollutant at present is SO₂ acting directly, but the improtance of soil changes due to acid deposition increases. The consequences are increased mortality and decreased increment in the forests, further consequences are the loss of valuable ecotypes, impact on water management and decreased stability of the landscape. There are limited possibilities of the forest sector to reduce the consequences.Contribution from Fourth World Wilderness Congress—Acid Rain Symposium, Denver (Estes Park), Colorado, September 11–18, 1987.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

Organochlorine contaminant concentrations in caddisfly adults (Trichoptera) collected from great lakes connecting channels

Pennsylvania-style light traps were used to capture adult Trichoptera from the St. Marys, St. Clair, Detroit and Niagara rivers, Canada. Adequate biomass was acquired in single, 2-h collections to permit triplicate gas chromatographic analyses of 1–4 g samples for 36 organochlorine contaminants. Contaminant levels varied unpredictably but relatively little among samples taken at monthly intervals over the summer. Samples collected simultaneously from the two sides of the Detroit R. reflected local sediment contaminant patterns, suggesting limited dispersal by adults. Genus-specific differences in contaminant concentrations within the Hydropsychidae and Leptoceridae probably reflect differences in larval habitats and manner of feeding. Contaminant concentrations and relative composition paralleled published reports of contaminants in sediments from collection locations. St. Marys R. caddisflies contained contaminant levels indistinguishable from samples collected at reference sites. St. Clair R. samples contained high levels of compounds associated with petrochemical industries located in the river's upstream reaches. High levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and most other contaminants in Detroit R. samples reflected industrial loadings near Detroit, Michigan. Niagara R. samples contained elevated concentrations of PCBs and pesticides. Cluster analysis grouped samples into five clusters each with unique contaminant composition. These also corresponded to geographic origin: St. Marys, St. Clair, Detroit and upper and lower Niagara rivers. The relative ease of collection and consistent results obtained render adult Trichoptera potentially valuable candidates for surveys of aquatic contamination over a broad range of geographical and ecological conditions.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Characterization of microbial communities from coastal waters using microarrays

Molecular methods, including DNA probes, were used to identify and enumerate pathogenic Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay; our data indicated that Vibrio vulnificus exhibits seasonal fluctuations in number. Our work included a characterization of total microbial communities from the Bay; development of microarrays that identify and quantify the diversity of those communities; and observation of temporal changes in those communities. To identify members of the microbial community, we amplified the 16S rDNA gene from community DNA isolated from a biofilm sample collected from the Chesapeake Bay in February, 2000. The resultant 75 sequences were 95% or more similar to 7 species including two recently described Shewanella species, baltica and frigidimarina, that have not been previously isolated from the Chesapeake. When the genera of bacteria from biofilm after culturing are compared to those detected by subcloning amplified 16S fragments from community DNA, the cultured sample exhibited a strong bias. In oysters collected in February, the most common bacteria were previously unknown. Based on our 16S findings, we are developing microarrays to detect these and other microbial species in these estuarine communities. The microarrays will detect each species using four distinct loci, with the multiple loci serving as an internal control. The accuracy of the microarray will be measured using sentinel species such as Aeromonas species, Escherichia coli, and Vibrio vulnificus. Using microarrays, it should be possible to determine the annual fluctuations of bacterial species (culturable and non-culturable, pathogenic and non-pathogenic). The data may be applied to understanding patterns of environmental change; assessing the health of the Bay; and evaluating the risk of human illness associated with exposure to and ingestion of water and shellfish.     

Environmental risk assessment of existing chemicals

Most of the existing chemicals of high priority have been released into the environment for many years. Risk assessments for existing chemicals are now conducted within the framework of the German Existing Chemicals Program and by the EC Regulation on Existing Substances. The environmental assessment of a chemical involves:

1. exposure assessment leading to the derivation of a predicted environmental concentration (PEC) of a chemical from releases due to its production, processing, use, and disposal. The calculation of a PEC takes into account the dispersion of a chemical into different environmental compartments, elimination and dilution processes, as well as degradation. Monitoring data are also considered.
2. effects assessment. Data obtained from acute or long-term toxicity tests are used for extrapolation on environmental conditions. In order to calculate the concentration with expectedly no adverse effect on organisms (Predicted No Effect Concentration, PNEC) the effect values are divided by an assessment factor. This assessment factor depends on the quantity and quality of toxicity data available.

In the last step of the initial risk assessment, the measured or estimated PEC is compared with the PNEC. This “risk characterization” is conducted for each compartment separately (water, sediment, soil, and atmosphere). In case PEC > PNEC an attempt should be made to revise data of exposure and/or effects to conduct a refined risk characterization. In case PEC is again larger than PNEC risk reduction measures have to be considered.