Changing Human Landscapes Under a Changing Climate: Considerations for Climate Assessments

Climate change is a fundamental aspect of the Anthropocene. Climate assessments are frequently undertaken to evaluate climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Assessments are complex endeavors with numerous challenges. Five aspects of a climate assessment that can be particularly challenging are highlighted: choice of assessment strategy, incorporation of spatial linkages and interactions, the constraints of climate observations, interpretation of a climate projection ensemble, uncertainty associated with weather/climate dependency models, and consideration of landscape–climate influences. In addition, a climate assessment strategy that incorporates both traditional “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods is proposed for assessments of adaptation options at the local/regional scale. Uncertainties associated with climate observations and projections and with weather/climate dependency (i.e., response) models are incorporated into the assessment through the “top-down” component, and stakeholder knowledge and experience are included through the “bottom-up” component. Considerable further research is required to improve assessment strategies and the usefulness and usability of assessment findings. In particular, new methods are needed which better incorporate spatial linkages and interactions, yet maintain the fine grain detail needed for decision making at the local and regional scales. Also, new methods are needed which go beyond sensitivity analyses of the relative contribution of land use and land cover changes on local/regional climate to more explicitly consider landscape–climate interactions in the context of uncertain future climates. Assessment teams must clearly communicate the choices made when designing an assessment and recognize the implications of these choices on the interpretation and application of the assessment findings.     

Leptospirosis risk increases with changes in species composition of rat populations

Rats are major reservoirs of leptospirosis and considered as a main threat to biodiversity. A recent introduction of Rattus rattus to the island of Futuna (Western Polynesia) provided the opportunity to test if a possible change in species composition of rat populations would increase the risk of leptospirosis to humans. We trapped rodents on Wallis and Futuna and assessed Leptospira carriage in 357 rodents (Rattus norvegicus, R. rattus, Rattus exulans, and Mus domesticus) from 2008 to 2012. While Leptospira prevalence in rodents and the composition of rat populations on Futuna fluctuated with rainfall, the biomass of Leptospira-carrying rodents has been continuously rising from 2008 to 2012. Our results suggest that the introduction of R. rattus increases the risk to humans being infected with leptospirosis by rats.     

Where the wild things are: predicting hotspots of seabird aggregations in the California Current System

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds ("hotspots"). We developed habitat-association models for 16 species using information from at-sea observations collected over an 11-year period (1997-2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single-species predictive models using a machine-learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single-species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas ("core areas") to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine-scale information for focal areas.     

A Bayesian approach for understanding the role of ship speed in whale-ship encounters

Mandatory or voluntary reductions in ship speed are a common management strategy for reducing deleterious encounters between large ships and large whales. This has produced strong resistance from shipping and marine transportation entities, in part because very few studies have empirically demonstrated whether or to what degree ship speed influences ship-whale encounters. Here we present the results of four years of humpback whale sightings made by observers aboard cruise ships in Alaska, representing 380 cruises and 891 ship-whale encounters. Encounters occurred at distances from 21 m to 1000 m (x = 567 m) with 61 encounters (7%) occurring between 200 m and 100 m, and 19 encounters (2%) within 100 m. Encounters were spatially aggregated and highly variable across all ship speeds. Nevertheless a Bayesian change-point model found that the relationship between whale distance and ship speed changed at 11.8 knots (6.1 m/s) with whales encountering ships, on average, 114 m closer when ship speeds were above 11.8 knots. Binning encounter distances by 1-knot speed increments revealed a clear decrease in encounter distance with increasing ship speed over the range of 7-17 knots (3.6-8.7 m/s). Our results are the first to demonstrate that speed influences the encounter distance between large ships and large whales. Assuming that the closer ships come to whales the more likely they are to be struck, our results suggest that reduced ship speed may be an effective management action in reducing the probability of a collision.     

Same-sex pair-bonds are equivalent to male–female bonds in a life-long socially monogamous songbird

Same-sex sexual behaviors are well documented in both captive and wild animals. In monogamous species, these behaviors are often exclusive, each individual having only one same-sex partner. A bias in sex ratio has been proposed as a social context yielding same-sex pair-bonding, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested. Focusing on a life-long pair-bonding songbird, the zebra finch Taeniopygia guttata, we tested whether same-sex pairing results from a shortage of individuals of the opposite sex. By experimentally skewing the sex ratio towards members of one sex, we observed a greater proportion of same-sex pair-bonds of that sex. Moreover, we assessed whether the quality and stability of social interactions were equivalent in same-sex and male–female pairs. Male–male and female–female same-sex bonds display the same behavioral characteristics as male–female ones: they are intense, highly selective, and stable affinitive relationships involving the same behavioral displays already described in wild birds. Moreover, same-sex male bonds were sufficiently strong not to split up when individuals were given the opportunity to reproduce with females. Because the pair-bond in socially monogamous species represents a partnership that may give advantages for survival (e.g., resources defense, fighting against predators, etc.), we propose that same-sex pairing in the zebra finch may result from the pressure to find a social partner.     

Subhumid pasture plant communities entrained by management

Many annual cropping lands are being converted to perennial pasture in humid and subhumid areas of the USA as the economic, social, and environmental benefits of managed grazing become evident. Recent evidence about the positive effects of plant diversity on productivity is driving farmers towards management for more complex species mixes than were promoted historically for grazed pastures, but this emphasis has highlighted a lack of understanding about plant community management in pastures. To better understand this system we examined sources of variability in the plant community of a subhumid grassland that was subjected to combinations of disturbance (graze or burn), and amendment (nitrogen, carbon, or ambient), and native grass seeding treatments over 3 years (2004 to 2006). We estimated species cover five times during the study period and ordinated these data with nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS). The ordination explained 80% of the variation in the plant community data set. Variance in ordination site scores was ascribed to management (disturbance, soil amendment, and native grass seeding time), the environment (year, season within year, and block), or unexplained (residual) realms with a linear mixed-effects model. The overwhelming source of variability in the plant community (62–99%) was attributed to management. Ordination results illustrated that plant groups sorted out along management gradients: burned plots were shifted towards grasses while forbs and clovers were associated with grazed plots. We demonstrate how a community-level approach can be used to evaluate management regimes in agroecosystems. Our results indicate that disturbance and soil amendments can be used to shape plant communities in subhumid grasslands for specific agronomic and conservation goals.     

Unintentional injuries among infants age 0-12 months

Each year an estimated 328,500 infants age 0-12 months are treated for unintentional injuries in emergency departments (EDs): one infant every minute and a half. The leading cause, overall and by month of age, was fall-related injury. The second leading cause was 'struck by or against.' The majority of patients were injured at home. Younger infants were more likely to be hospitalized than older ones and more males than females were injured. Gender differences suggest that parenting practices may play a role, but ecological approaches should be considered in an effort to understand the connection between injuries and an infant's developmental stage.     

Reconstruction of crashes involving injured child occupants: the risk of serious injuries associated with sub-optimal restraint use may be reduced by better controlling occupant kinematics

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether injuries to sub-optimally restrained child occupants in real-world crashes were likely to be preventable by alternative restraint usage practices and to assess the usefulness of crash reconstruction for exploring injury mechanisms in child occupants. METHODS: Real-world crashes in which child occupants sustained significant injuries were reconstructed on a laboratory crash sled using the Hybrid III family of child dummies. Alternative restraint scenarios and cases in which children were not seriously injured were also simulated to compare dummy kinematics and dynamic responses in optimal restraint configurations. RESULTS: Restraint misuse was associated with greater motion of the dummy torso and head during crashes, often allowing contact between the child and the vehicle interior, resulting in injury. Poor pre-crash posture for a child inappropriately restrained in an adult belt appeared to worsen the geometry of the sash (shoulder) belt, resulting in a cervical injury due to direct interaction with the belt. Dynamic dummy data did not appear to discriminate between injury and non-injury cases. CONCLUSIONS: Dummy kinematics suggest that injuries in which inappropriate use and misuse were a factor were less likely if the most appropriate restraint was used correctly. Adequately controlling the head and upper body of the child occupant was seen to prevent undesirable interactions with the vehicle interior and restraint system, which were associated with injury in the real world. Neck forces and moments and injury criteria calculated from these did not predict injury reliably.     

A novel approach to the sequential extraction of plutonium from oxic and anoxic sediment using sodium citrate to inhibit post-extraction resorption

Sequential extraction has been used extensively to study the solid partitioning of radionuclides in soils and sediments. A difficulty with sequential extraction is that radionuclides released by a particular extractant can be resorbed and artificially redistributed amongst the remaining solid phases. Here, we describe experiments (on selected model phase and natural materials), which were designed to determine whether the inclusion of a chelating agent (sodium citrate) in an established sequential extraction protocol (a) inhibits post-extraction resorption of plutonium, (b) increases non-targeted dissolution of sediment phases, and (c) gives rise to unwanted ligand competition for plutonium. The results clearly demonstrate the capacity of citrate to inhibit the resorption of plutonium from the various extractants, and confirm that there is no discernible increase in non-targeted phase dissolution, but indicate significant ligand competition with the carbonate phase. The merits of using citrate are discussed and an optimised sequential extraction protocol that includes citrate is proposed. Finally, the protocol is applied to oxic and anoxic sediments sampled in the NE Irish Sea and the Roads of Cherbourg, and it is shown that the bulk of the plutonium on these sediments is associated with the more labile geochemical fractions.     

Meadow Restoration Increases Baseflow and Groundwater Storage in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

In mountains of the western United States, channel incision has drawn down the water table across thousands of square kilometers of meadow floodplain. Here climate change is resulting in earlier melt and reduced snowpack and water resource managers are responding by investing in meadow restoration to increase springtime storage and summer flows. The record‐setting California drought (2012–2015) provided an opportunity to evaluate this strategy under the warmer and drier conditions expected to impact mountain water supplies. In 2012, 0.1 km² of meadow floodplain was reconnected by filling an incised channel through Indian Valley in the central Sierra Nevada Mountains of California. Despite sustained drought conditions after restoration, summer baseflow from the meadow increased 5–12 times. Before restoration, the total summer outflow from the meadow was 5% more than the total summer inflow. After restoration, total summer outflow from the meadow was between 35% and 95% more than total summer inflow. In the worst year of the drought (2015), when inflow to the meadow ceased for at least one month, summer baseflow was at least five times greater than before restoration. Groundwater levels also rose at four out of five sites near the stream channel. Filling the incised channel and reconnecting the meadow floodplain increased water availability and streamflow, despite unprecedented drought conditions.