Replace the NOAEL and LOAEL with the BMDL01 and BMDL10

Although benchmark-dose methodology has existed for more than 20 years, benchmark doses (BMDs) still have not fully supplanted the no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) and lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL) as points of departure from the experimental dose–response range for setting acceptable exposure levels of toxic substances. Among the issues involved in replacing the NOAEL (LOAEL) with a BMD are (1) which added risk level(s) above background risk should be targeted as benchmark responses (BMRs), (2) whether to apply the BMD methodology to both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic toxic effects, and (3) how to model continuous health effects that aren’t observed in a natural risk-based context like dichotomous health effects. This paper addresses these issues and recommends specific BMDs to replace the NOAEL and LOAEL.

Dynamic reserve design with the union-find algorithm

When reserve networks are established over time, there is a risk that sites will be developed in areas planned for future reservation, reducing the effectiveness of reserves. We developed a dynamic reserve design model that maximizes the expected number of species conserved, taking account of the risk of future habitat loss and fragmentation. The model makes use of the union-find algorithm, which is an efficient method for maintaining a list of connected regions in a graph as nodes and edges are inserted. A simple extension of the algorithm allows us to efficiently determine, for each species, when a sequence of site selections results in a reserve in which the species can persist. The extension also allows us to determine when a sequence of deforestation events results in the species becoming non-viable. The dynamic reserve design model is much more effective than commonly used heuristics, particularly when multiple connected sites are required for species persistence. The model also is able to solve much larger problems with greater effectiveness than the only previous dynamic reserve design model that considered site connectivity relationships. The union-find algorithm has much scope for addressing ecological management problems in which dynamic connectivity needs to be considered.     

Colony nutritional status modulates worker responses to foraging recruitment pheromone in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris

Foraging activity in social insects should be regulated by colony nutritional status and food availability, such that both the emission of, and response to, recruitment signals depend on current conditions. Using fully automatic radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to follow the foraging activity of tagged bumblebees (Bombus terrestris) during 16,000 foraging bouts, we tested whether the cue provided by stored food (the number of full honeypots) could modulate the response of workers to the recruitment pheromone signal. Artificial foraging pheromones were applied to colonies with varied levels of food reserves. The response to recruitment pheromones was stronger in colonies with low food, resulting in more workers becoming active and more foraging bouts being performed. In addition to previous reports showing that in colonies with low food successful foragers perform more excited runs during which they release recruitment pheromone and inactive workers are more prone to leave the nest following nectar influx, our results indicate that evolution has shaped a third pathway that modulates bumblebee foraging activity, thus preventing needless energy expenditure and exposure to risk when food stores are already high. This new feedback loop is intriguing since it involves context-dependent response to a signal. It highlights the integration of information from both forager-released pheromones (signal) and nutritional status (cue) that occurs within individual workers before making the decision to start foraging. Our results support the emerging view that responses to pheromones may be less hardwired than commonly acknowledged. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Spatial Scale of Autocorrelation of Assemblages of Benthic Invertebrates in Two Upland Rivers in South-Eastern Australia and Its Implications for Biomonitoring and Impact Assessment in Streams

Spatial autocorrelation in ecological systems is a critical issue for monitoring (and a general understanding of ecological dynamics) yet there are very few data available, especially for riverine systems. Here, we report here on assemblage-level autocorrelation in the benthic-invertebrate assemblages of riffles in two adjacent, relatively pristine rivers in south-eastern Victoria, Australia (40-km reaches of the Wellington [surveys in summers of 1996 and 1997] and Wonnangatta Rivers [survey in summer of 1996 only], with 16 sites in each river). We found that analyses were similar if the data were resolved to family or to species level. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed by using Mantel-tests for the data partitioned into different sets of spatial separations of survey sites (e.g. 0–6 km, 6–12 km, etc.). We found strong small-scale (≤6 km) autocorrelation in the Wellington River, which is consistent with known dispersal abilities of many aquatic invertebrates. Surprisingly, there were strong negative correlations at longer distance classes for the Wellington River in one of the two summers (20–40 km) and the Wonnangatta River (12–20 km). That two largely unimpacted, adjacent rivers should have such different autocorrelation patterns suggests that impact assessment cannot assume dependence or independence of sites a priori. We discuss the implications of these results for use of “reference” sites to assess impacts at nominally affected sites.     

Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation

Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes that affect carbon storage. Using an economic optimization model, we project levels of U.S. forest volumes as indicators of carbon storage for a wide range of private forest investment scenarios. Results show that economic opportunities exist to further intensify timber management on some hectares and reduce the average timber rotation length such that the national volume of standing timber stocks could be reduced relative to projections reflecting historical trends. The national amount of timber volume is projected to increase over the next 50 yr, but then is projected to decline if private owners follow an economic optimization path, such as with more forest type conversions and shorter timber rotations. With perfect foresight, future forest investments can affect current timber harvest levels, with intertemporal linkages based on adjustments through markets. Forest investments that boost regenerated timber yields per hectare would act to enhance ecosystem services (e.g., forest carbon storage) if they are related to the rate of growth and extent of growing stock inventory.     

Balancing ecosystem function,services and disservices resulting from expanding goose populations

As goose populations increase in abundance, their influence on ecological processes is increasing. We review the evidence for key ecological functions of wild goose populations in Eurasia and North America, including aquatic invertebrate and plant propagule transport, nutrient deposition in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the influence of goose populations on vegetation biomass, carbon storage and methane emission, species diversity and disease transmission. To estimate the implications of their growing abundance for humans, we explore how these functions contribute to the provision of ecosystem services and disservices. We assess the weight, extent and trends among such impacts, as well as the balance of their value to society. We examine key unresolved issues to enable a more balanced assessment of the economic costs or benefits of migratory geese along their flyways, including the spatial and temporal variation in services and their contrasting value to different user groups. Many ecological functions of geese are concluded to provide neither services nor disservices and, ecosystem disservices currently appear to outweigh services, although this varies between regions. We consider an improved quantification of ecosystem services and disservices, and how these vary along population flyways with respect to variation in valuing certain cultural services, and under different management scenarios aimed at reducing their disservices, essential for a more balanced management of goose populations.     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

The political economy of certificates for land use in Germany – experimental evidence

Certificate trading schemes have been discussed as a cost-efficient means of reducing urban land consumption in Germany by capping and reallocating permissions to conduct building projects. However, in contrast to the established cap & trade systems for emissions, reputation-seeking politicians would be in charge of buying and trading certificates – an aspect not considered to date. We thus present a laboratory experiment that captures politicians’ incentives connected to electoral cycles in a cap & trade scheme for land consumption, whereby tradable certificates are auctioned and grandfathered in equal shares. We find the cap & trade system to be efficient at large; yet, there are several politically relevant distortions that are aggravated by self-serving incentives. We thus identify potential problems to a cap & trade system for urban land consumption that could substantially reduce both its assumed superior efficiency and its political feasibility.