NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN OREGON WELL WATER: GEOLOGIC VARIABILITY AND THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION1

ABSTRACT: Approximately 4.5 million people in the United States who rely on well water are exposed to nitrate‐N concentrations exceeding the 10 mg/l standard. In this study in the Southern Willamette Valley in Oregon we reassessed nitrate‐N in rural wells sampled in 2000–2001, compared nitrate‐N concentrations among geological units, and surveyed residents about their perceptions of well water quality. Nitrate‐N concentrations were again sampled in 2002 and found to have increased significantly from the previous period. With rapid population growth in the area, the potential health risk in drinking well water that exceeds 10 mg/l nitrate‐N warrants continued public education. Nitrate‐N concentrations were found to be higher in the Holocene alluvium of the Willamette River and the Pleistocene sand and gravel post‐Missoula Flood deposits. Researchers conducting future studies may choose to stratify and monitor wells by geologic unit and by other parameters that estimate input of nutrients to the environment. Opinions differed between agricultural landowners and nonagricultural landowners with regard to the impact that agricultural fertilizers may have on water quality. Participants were supportive of a range of regulatory actions that might be used by homeowners or landowners to address ground water contamination. Given that the area is now designated a Groundwater Management Area, understanding local stakeholders’perceptions is critical and strategic and has the potential to help public agencies manage potential conflicts of opinion among stakeholders, build consensus, and help guide the approach to restoring ground water quality.     

Conservation Opportunities for Securing In-Stream Flows in the Platte River Basin: A Case Study Drawing on Casper,Wyoming’s MunicipalWater Strategy

The Platte River Basin consists of tributaries largely in Wyoming, Colorado and Western Nebraska, with the main stem in Central Nebraska. Critical wildlife habitat on the main stem requires additional in-stream flows. The watershed is one hosting multiple resources, a variety of users, and managed by an array of state and federal agencies. This study proposes a basis for securing in-stream flows for the Platte River. Candidate water supply mechanisms are suggested based on the way in which Casper, Wyoming secured water for its municipal needs. Canal lining is compared to a dam project, increasing reservoir storage, and purchasing water rights, with consideration also made for water pricing to reduce municipal use. Comparisons are based on economic efficiency, potential water conservation, and property rights criteria. Canal lining, coupled with demand management, is shown to conserve water best, given the set of efficiency and cost criteria for in-stream flow enhancement. The approach offers an opportunity to organize the water supply choice context in a transboundary watershed when quantitative information is limited.     

Dendrochemical record of historical lead contamination sources, Wells G&H Superfund site, Woburn, Massachusetts

Laser-ablation inductively coupled-plasma mass-spectrometry analysis of red oak (Quercus rubra) from a well documented heavy metal contaminated United States Environmental Protection Agency superfund site in Woburn, Massachusetts reveals decade-long trends in Pb contaminant sources. Lead isotope ratios (207Pb/206Pb and 208Pb/206Pb) in tree rings plot along a linear trend bracketed by several local and regional contamination sources. Statistically significant interannual variations in 207Pb/206Pb suggest that atmospheric Pb is rapidly incorporated into wood, with minimal mobility subsequent to deposition in annual growth rings. We interpret the decadal trends in our record as a changing mixture of local pollution sources and gasoline-derived Pb. Between 1940 and 1970, Pb was predominantly derived from remobilization of local industrial Pb sources. An abrupt shift in 207Pb/206Pb may indicate that local Pb sources were overwhelmed by gasoline-derived Pb during the peak of leaded gasoline emissions in the late 1960s and early 1970s.     

Applicability of the Transient Storage Model to the hyporheic exchange of metals

Stream-subsurface exchange results from a complex ensemble of transport mechanisms that require different modeling approaches. Field and laboratory experiments show that advective exchange through the underlying sediments is an important mechanism of solutes transport and storage in riverine systems. Here, Transient Storage Model parameters are obtained for reactive solute exchange driven by bedform-induced advection. Consideration of exchange induced by this single mechanism allows specific relationships between model parameters and system properties like solute reactivity to be identified. This work shows that when a simplified model like the Transient Storage Model is applied to analyze metal storage in river sediments, particular attention must be devoted to the choice of modeling parameters.     

Temporal variation in total phosphorus concentrations revealed from a multidecadal monitoring program on Big Platte Lake,Michigan

Effective water quality management depends on enactment of appropriately designed monitoring programs to reveal current and forecasted conditions. Because water quality conditions are influenced by numerous factors, commonly measured attributes such as total phosphorus (TP) can be highly temporally varying. For highly varying processes, monitoring programs should be long-term and periodic quantitative analyses are needed so that temporal trends can be distinguished from stochastic variation, which can yield insights into potential modifications to the program. Using generalized additive mixed modeling, we assessed temporal (yearly and monthly) trends and quantified other sources of variation (daily and subsampling) in TP concentrations from a multidecadal depth-specific monitoring program on Big Platte Lake, Michigan. Yearly TP concentrations decreased from the late 1980s to late 1990s before rebounding through the early 2000s. At depths of 2.29 to 13.72 m, TP concentrations have cycled around stationary points since the early 2000s, while at the surface and depths ≥?18.29 concentrations have continued declining. Summer and fall peaks in TP concentrations were observed at most depths, with the fall peak at deeper depths occurring 1 month earlier than shallower depths. Daily sampling variation (i.e., variation within a given month and year) was greatest at shallowest and deepest depths. Variation in subsamples collected from depth-specific water samples constituted a small fraction of total variation. Based on model results, cost-saving measures to consider for the monitoring program include reducing subsampling of depth-specific concentrations and reducing the number of sampling depths given observed consistencies across the program period.     

Non-compliance and the quota price in an ITQ fishery

This paper examines the effects of non-compliance on quota demands and the equilibrium quota price in an ITQ fishery. I show that whereas lower quota prices are implied unambiguously by expected penalties which are a function of the absolute violation size, the expectation of penalties based upon relative violations of quota demands can, under certain conditions, produce higher quota prices than in a compliant quota market. If there are both compliant and non-compliant firms in the fishery, the result would then be a shift in quota demand from compliant to non-compliant firms, rather than the reverse. The findings are generally applicable to quota markets in other industries, including pollution permit markets.     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) abundance and growth in a subtropical embayment: evidence from 7 years of standardized fishing effort

The tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier Peron and Lesueur 1822) is a widely distributed predator with a broad diet and the potential to affect marine community structure, yet information on local patterns of abundance for this species is lacking. Tiger shark catch data were gathered over 7 years of tag and release research fishing (1991–2000, 2002–2004) in Shark Bay, Western Australia (25°45′S, 113°44′E). Sharks were caught using drumlines deployed in six permanent zones (~3 km² in area). Fishing effort was standardized across days and months, and catch rates on hooks were expressed as the number of sharks caught h⁻¹. A total of 449 individual tiger sharks was captured; 29 were recaptured. Tiger shark catch rate showed seasonal periodicity, being higher during the warm season (Sep–May) than during the cold season (Jun–Aug), and was marked by inter-annual variability. The most striking feature of the catch data was a consistent pattern of slow, continuous variation within each year from a peak during the height of the warm season (February) to a trough in the cold season (July). Annual growth rates of recaptured individuals were generally consistent with estimates from other regions, but exceeded those for populations elsewhere for sharks >275 cm fork length (FL), perhaps because mature sharks in the study area rely heavily on large prey. The data suggest that (1) the threat of predation faced by animals consumed by tiger sharks fluctuates dramatically within and between years, and (2) efforts to monitor large shark abundance should be extensive enough to detect inter-annual variation and sufficiently intensive to account for intra-annual trends.     

Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.