Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

VOC Emission Controls for Can End Sealing Compounds

Regulations require that emissions of VOC from the application of can end sealing compounds be limited to 440 grams per liter. One can manufacturer has investigated the cost and feasibility of a VOC capture/control system and the availability and efficacy of water-based and high solids end sealing compounds. After characterizing and optimizing VOC evaporation rates, a prototype VOC containment system was tested on one can end sealing compound line. An 83 percent VOC capture efficiency was obtained at approximately 950 acfm. A cost analysis for a full facility capture and control system gave cost-effectiveness values of $1.21 to $2.36 per pound of VOC controlled. An evaluation oflow-VOC end sealing compounds, including long term pack tests, produced a water-based compound that could be implemented on pet food can ends by early 1986. Continuation of pack tests could allow full facility conversion to zero VOC water-based compounds by mid- to late-1987. Using an innovative averaging technique, the can manufacturer has achieved equivalent compliance with the 440 grams per liter standard.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

Population structure of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Pacific Ocean, inferred from microsatellite loci

Five polymorphic microsatellite loci were examined in 1391 yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) from eight regions of the western (Coral Sea, eastern Australia, Fiji, Indonesia, Philippines and Solomon Islands) and eastern (California and Mexico ) Pacific Ocean. Across all samples, numbers of alleles per locus ranged from 7 to 30 (mean: 17.0), and observed heterozygosities per locus ranged from 0.223 to 0.955 (mean: 0.593). Temporal collections were available for three areas: no significant temporal heterogeneity was observed for the Coral Sea (1991/1992 and 1995/1996 collections) or eastern Australia (1994/1995, 1995/1996, 1996/1997 and 1997/1998), but there was slight but significant heterogeneity at one locus (cmrTa-161) between the two Philippines collections (1994/1995 and 1996/1997). Genotypes generally showed a good fit to Hardy-Weinberg expectations within populations; only cmrTa-208 in the pooled Coral Sea population gave a significant deviation after Bonferroni correction for 40 tests, with a small but significant excess of homozygotes. Four loci showed no evidence of population differentiation following contingency Chi-squared and F_ST analyses. The fifth locus, cmrTa-161, showed small but significant differentiation (F_ST=0.002, P<0.001). This heterogeneity was largely a result of the Philippines 1994/1995 and Fiji collections; there was no correlation with geographic distance. The average F_ST across all five loci was very low (F_ST=0.002), but it was significant (P<0.001). It is unclear whether this low but significant differentiation reflects noise in the dataset, perhaps arising from experimental error, or real population differentiation. The finding of very limited population heterogeneity accords with most of the earlier allozyme and mitochondrial DNA studies of yellowfin tuna in the Pacific Ocean.     

An assessment of fluoride in the coastal aquifer of the Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat (India)

The fluoride (F) concentration in the coastal aquifers of Bara tract in Bharuch district, Gujarat was determined by potentiometric method using an ion-selective electrode. The fluoride concentration in these aquifers varies between 0.060 to 3.51 mg/L. It was also found that F has a positive correlation with pH and HCO(3)(-) whereas negatively correlated with Ca(2+), indicating that high fluoride in ground water is associated with low calcium content. This suggests that the higher pH of water promotes the leaching of fluoride and thus affects the concentration of fluoride in the ground water. It was also found that there exists no relationship between F, EC, and ground water table from surface in the ground water.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Natural Weathering Studies of Polypropylene

Polypropylene (PP) has achieved a dominating position and hence, their consumption increases thereby littering, which lead to environmental pollution. Photodegradation seems to be a better choice because of naturally available sunlight as energy source for degradation. The present work involves the study of the variation of degradation behavior of PP film during tropical summer and winter seasons. The photodegradation is followed by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic technique. Various indices like hydroxyl, carbonyl, vinylidene, lactones, ester, carboxylic acid and crystallinity are calculated and these values increased after a brief induction period. The variation in the mechanical properties like tensile strength and elongation at break percentages are determined. The scanning electron microscopic (SEM) images of weathered PP showed surface cracks when carbonyl index value increases sharply and the mechanical properties show a sudden decrease. Attempted life time prediction using mathematical models showed that the carbonyl growth is more affected by ultraviolet (UV) and cumulative total solar radiation for PP weathered during summer. The loss in tensile strength of PP weathered during summer is more dependent on the average temperature and the UV portion of the total solar radiation whereas, intensity of UV radiation has profound effect on the tensile strength of PP weathered during winter.     

Collective work and resilience of complex systems

This article aims to describe the characteristics of collective working situations in complex systems – especially those in nuclear power plants – related to common forms of cooperation, in order to improve systems resilience. In addition, we will try to detail some aspects of collective working situations, emphasizing the differences between various forms of control. The similarities between work activities (multi-addressed messages, linkage to regulation, central and peripheral information) are nonetheless exposed. We conclude by proposing a contribution to support systems design, thus facilitating cooperation in teamwork activities.     

Evaluation of a classification method for biodegradable solid wastes using anaerobic degradation parameters

We studied the biochemical and anaerobic degradation characteristics of 29 types of materials to evaluate the effects of a physical composition classification method for degradable solid waste on the computation of anaerobic degradation parameters, including the methane yield potential (L₀), anaerobic decay rate (k), and carbon sequestration factor (CSF). Biochemical methane potential tests were conducted to determine the anaerobic degradation parameters of each material. The results indicated that the anaerobic degradation parameters of nut waste were quite different from those of other food waste and nut waste was classified separately. Paper was subdivided into two categories according to its lignin content: degradable paper with lignin content of <0.05 g g VS^?1, and refractory paper with lignin content >0.15 g g VS^?1. The L₀, k, and CSF parameters of leaves, a type of garden waste, were similar to those of grass. This classification method for degradable solid waste may provide a theoretical basis that facilitates the more accurate calculation of anaerobic degradation parameters.