Age-specific survivorship in relation to clutch size and fledging success in California gulls

Summary Data from a natural population of California gulls (Larus californicus) demonstrated that increasing reproductive effort with age was associated with reduced survivorship. Number of offspring fledged but not clutch size was inversely related to adult survivorhip indicating that reproductively induced mortality resulted from the cumulative effects of the entire breeding season. Agerelated increases in fledging success were correlated with increased adult mortality. Young gulls fledged few offspring and had high survival rates. Old gulls tended to fledge more offspring and had low survival rates. However, those old gulls fledging few offspring survived as well as young gulls. Data also invalidate the assumption that survivorship is age-constant in this species.     

Estimating the complexity of bird song by using capture-recapture approaches from community ecology

Repertoire size, the number of unique song or syllable types in the repertoire, is a widely used measure of song complexity in birds, but it is difficult to calculate this exactly in species with large repertoires. A new method of repertoire size estimation applies species richness estimation procedures from community ecology, but such capture-recapture approaches have not been much tested. Here, we establish standardized sampling schemes and estimation procedures using capture-recapture models for syllable repertoires from 18 bird species, and suggest how these may be used to tackle problems of repertoire estimation. Different models, with different assumptions regarding the heterogeneity of the use of syllable types, performed best for different species with different song organizations. For most species, models assuming heterogeneous probability of occurrence of syllables (so-called detection probability) were selected due to the presence of both rare and frequent syllables. Capture-recapture estimates of syllable repertoire size from our small sample did not differ significantly from previous estimates using larger samples of count data. However, the enumeration of syllables in 15 songs yielded significantly lower estimates than previous reports. Hence, heterogeneity in detection probability of syllables should be addressed when estimating repertoire size. This is neglected using simple enumeration procedures, but is taken into account when repertoire size is estimated by appropriate capture-recapture models adjusted for species-specific song organization characteristics. We suggest that such approaches, in combination with standardized sampling, should be applied in species with potentially large repertoire size. On the other hand, in species with small repertoire size and homogenous syllable usage, enumerations may be satisfactory. Although researchers often use repertoire size as a measure of song complexity, listeners to songs are unlikely to count entire repertoires and they may rely on other cues, such as syllable detection probability.Communicated by A. Cockburn     

Elk decision-making rules are simplified in the presence of wolves

The risk of predation drives many behavioral responses in prey. However, few studies have directly tested whether predation risk alters the way other variables influence prey behavior. Here we use information theory (Akaike’s Information Criterion, AICc) in a novel way to test the hypothesis that the decision-making rules governing elk behavior are simplified by the presence of wolves. With elk habitat use as the dependent variable, we test whether the number of independent variables (i.e., the size of the models) that best predict this behavior differ when wolves are present vs absent. Thus, we use AICc scores simply to determine the number of variables to which elk respond when making decisions. We measured habitat use using 2,288 locations from GPS collars on 14 elk, over two winters (14 elk winters), in the Gallatin Canyon portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that the use of three major habitat components (grass, conifer, sage) was sensitive to many variables on days that wolves were locally absent, with the best models (ΔAICc≤2) averaging 7.4 parameters. In contrast, habitat use was sensitive to few variables on days when wolves were present: the best models averaged only 2.5 parameters. Because fewer variables affect elk behavior in the presence of wolves, we conclude that elk use simpler decision-making rules in the presence of wolves. This simplification of decision-making rules implies that predation risk imposes selection pressures that do not allow prey to respond to other pressures in ways that they otherwise would. If the affected processes are important, then this indirect effect of predation is likely to be important.     

Optimal energy use in a polluted environment

Some of the basic issues involved in the optimal intertemporal use of energy resources when there are environmental spillovers are examined at a macroeconomic level and in a world of certainty. Several scenarios are considered with varying assumptions concerning the depletability of the energy resource stock and the nature of pollution production. In particular, with an accumulating form of pollution it is shown that initially the energy resource should be used more slowly to reduce environmental damage and over the plan the rate of use should be increased—a counter-Hotellian result.     

Preferential incubation positions for different sized eggs and their influence on incubation period and hatching asynchrony in Snares crested (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eudyptes robustus</Emphasis>) and yellow-eyed penguins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Megadyptes antipodes</Emphasis>)

In crested penguins (Eudyptes spp.), second-laid eggs typically hatch before first eggs. Amongst a variety of factors that have been considered as mechanisms underlying this reversal, has been the idea that crested penguins can adjust the degree of hatching asynchrony by manipulating egg positions (i.e. placing the smaller first egg in the supposedly thermally disadvantaged anterior position) during incubation (termed Preferential Incubation Hypothesis). We tested this in the Snares crested penguin (Eudyptes robustus) and the closely related, but synchronously-hatching, yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes). Snares crested penguins were more likely to place their first eggs, which are smaller than second eggs, in the anterior incubation position than were yellow-eyed penguins, which have a clutch of two similar-sized eggs. But when yellow-eyed penguins, a non-brood reducing species, were provided with an artificial size-dimorphic clutch, they also placed smaller eggs more frequently in the anterior position, suggesting that a general preference exists among penguins to place smaller eggs in the anterior position. Egg temperatures of small first eggs of Snares crested penguins were higher in the anterior than in the posterior position. Large first eggs in lesser size-dimorphic clutches experienced high temperature differences in relation to position, while small first eggs in greater size-dimorphic clutches were incubated at similar temperatures. In yellow-eyed penguins, large eggs within clutches generally had higher egg temperatures than small eggs. Incubation periods of second eggs declined with increasing egg size. Egg-size variation, rather than egg positioning behaviour, influenced hatching patterns in Snares crested penguins. In lesser size-dimorphic clutches, second eggs were more likely to hatch first while in greater size-dimorphic clutches, small first eggs were more likely to hatch at the same time or before the second eggs. This was similar in yellow-eyed penguins, where second eggs hatched earlier in clutches with large first eggs. Our data contradicts the Preferential Incubation Hypothesis and we conclude that this hypothesis is unlikely to explain the reversed hatching asynchrony in crested penguins.Communicated by C. Brown     

A comparative study of prognostic MM5 meteorological modeling with aircraft, wind profiler, lidar, tethered balloon and RASS data over Philadelphia during a 1999 summer episode

This study presents a comparative evaluation of the prognostic meteorological Fifth Generation NCAR Pennsylvania State University Mesoscale Model (MM5) using data from the Northeast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS) research program collected over Philadelphia, PA during a summer episode in 1999. A set of model simulations utilizing a nested grid of 36 km, 12 km and 4 km horizontal resolutions with 21 layers in the vertical direction was performed for a period of 101 h from July 15, 1999; 12 UTC to July 19, 1999; 17 UTC. The model predictions obtained with 4 km horizontal grid resolution were compared with the NE-OPS observations. Comparisons of model temperature with aircraft data revealed that the model exhibited slight underestimation as noted by previous investigators. Comparisons of model temperature with aircraft and tethered balloon data indicate that the mean absolute error varied up to 1.5 °C. The comparisons of model relative humidity with aircraft and tethered balloon indicate that the mean relative error varied from –11% to –22% for the tethered balloon and from –5% to –30% for the aircraft data. The mean relative error for water vapor mixing ratio with respect to the lidar data exhibited a negative bias consistent with the humidity bias corresponding to aircraft and tethered balloon data. The tendency of MM5 to produce estimates of very low wind speeds, especially in the early-mid afternoon hours, as noted by earlier investigators, is seen in this study also. It is indeed true that the initial fields as well as the fields utilized in the data assimilation also contribute to some of the differences between the model and observations. Studies such as these which compare the grid averaged mean state variables with observations have inherent difficulties. Despite the above limitations, the results of the present study broadly conform to the general traits of MM5 as noted by earlier investigators.