WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

Geometric morphometrics as a tool for improving the comparative study of behavioural postures

Describing postures has always been a central concern when studying behaviour. However, attempts to compare postures objectively at phylogenetical, populational, inter- or intra-individual levels generally either rely upon a few key elements or remain highly subjective. Here, we propose a novel approach, based on well-established geometric morphometrics, to describe and to analyse postures globally (i.e. considering the animal’s body posture in its entirety rather than focusing only on a few salient elements, such as head or tail position). Geometric morphometrics is concerned with describing and comparing variation and changes in the form (size and shape) of organisms using the coordinates of a series of homologous landmarks (i.e. positioned in relation to skeletal or muscular cues that are the same for different species for every variety of form and function and that have derived from a common ancestor, i.e. they have a common evolutionary ancestry, e.g. neck, wings, flipper/hand). We applied this approach to horses, using global postures (1) to characterise behaviours that correspond to different arousal levels, (2) to test potential impact of environmental changes on postures. Our application of geometric morphometrics to horse postures showed that this method can be used to characterise behavioural categories, to evaluate the impact of environmental factors (here human actions) and to compare individuals and groups. Beyond its application to horses, this promising approach could be applied to all questions involving the analysis of postures (evolution of displays, expression of emotions, stress and welfare, behavioural repertoires…) and could lead to a whole new line of research.     

Reducing primary and secondary impact loads on the pelvis during side impact

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine which vehicle factors are significantly related to pelvic injury in side impact collisions. Identification of relevant parameters could aid in the reduction of these injuries. METHOD: Side impact crashes from the CIREN database were separated into those in which the occupant sustained a pelvic fracture and those in which no pelvic fracture occurred, although all occupants had serious injuries. A multibody MADYMO model was created of a USDOT SINCAP (U.S. Department of Transportation Side Impact New Car Assessment Program) test of a vehicle with a large center console. RESULTS: From a study of 113 side impact crashes in the ciren database, nearside occupants with pelvic fractures (n = 78) had (i) more door intrusion (mean, 37 vs. 32 cm, p = 0.02) than those who had serious injuries, but not pelvic fractures (ii) a greater likelihood that the lower border of the door intruded more than the upper part (40% vs. 18%, p < 0.025); and (iii) a greater likelihood that their vehicle had a center console (47 vs. 17%, p < 0.005). Other parameters such as occupant age, weight, gender, vehicle weight, and struck vehicle speed change were not significantly different. MADYMO modeling showed that with a center console, an initial positive pelvic acceleration occurred at about 30 msec, followed at about 45 msec by a second acceleration peak in the opposite direction. Reducing console stiffness reduced the second acceleration but not the initial peak. Allowing the seat to translate laterally when contacted by the door reduced the initial pelvic acceleration by 50% and eliminated the second acceleration peak. CONCLUSIONS: Redesigning the center console using less stiff materials and allowing some lateral translation of the seat could aid in reducing pelvic injuries in side impact collisions.     

On the significance of adult play: what does social play tell us about adult horse welfare?

Play remains a mystery and adult play even more so. More typical of young stages in healthy individuals, it occurs rarely at adult stages but then more often in captive/domestic animals, which can imply spatial, social and/or feeding deprivations or restrictions that are challenging to welfare, than in animals living in natural conditions. Here, we tested the hypothesis that adult play may reflect altered welfare states and chronic stress in horses, in which, as in several species, play rarely occurs at adult stages in natural conditions. We observed the behaviour (in particular, social play) of riding school horses during occasional outings in a paddock and measured several stress indicators when these horses were in their individual home boxes. Our results revealed that (1) the number of horses and rates of adult play appeared very high compared to field report data and (2) most stress indicators measured differed between ‘players’ and ‘non-players’, revealing that most ‘playful’ animals were suffering from more chronic stress than ‘non-playful’ horses. Frequency of play behaviour correlated with a score of chronic stress. This first discovery of a relationship between adult play and altered welfare opens new lines of research that certainly deserves comparative studies in a variety of species.     

Phenotypic assortative mating and genetic population structure in the crab Trapezia digitalis

Colonies of Pocillopora spp. containing the crab Trapezia digitalis were collected from Hawaii in summer of 1979 and of 1980. Individuals of T. digitalis in Hawaii vary extensively in coloration of the carapace: crabs were separated into phenotypic classes by their degree of carapace reticulation. When presented with two females of different phenotype, males preferentially paired with the female which was similar to them in reticulation. The genetic population structure of T. digitalis was unusual by comparison with other species of Trapezia. Previously reported homozygote excesses at esterase-4, hexokinase-1, phosphoglucoseisomerase, and general protein-2 cannot be explained by the single-locus Wahlund effect, since there was not significant genetic differentiation among phenotypic classes, as measured by Wright's F _ST statistic. There was significant variation among classes in allele frequencies at a fifth locus, hexokinase-2. Two pairs of loci were in significant gametic disequilibrium. Gametic disequilibrium was not detected in seven other species of Trapezia. It is suggested that multi-locus genetic analysis and an increased geographic sampling range are needed to determine the genetic population structure of T. digitalis in relation to observed variation in coloration.     

Genetic differentiation among matrilines in social groups of rhesus monkeys

Summary In rhesus monkey populations, animals related by descent to some female comprise a matriline or genealogy. Data on blood protein polymorphisms in the Cayo Santiago rhesus colony indicate that allele frequency variations among matrilines in social groups are large. These variations occur despite high levels of outbreeding. Computer simulation analyses indicate that pedigree or linear effect account for much of the observed genetic differentiation among genealogies. A sampling with correlation model in which genealogy sizes and average kinship levels are parameters predicts among matriline genetic differentiation. This study indicates that substantial genetic substructure is present within rhesus social groups. Our analyses also predict that large variances in allele frequencies should be common among social or trait groups based on kinship relationships.     

Toxic equivalency factors for PAH and their applicability in shellfish pollution monitoring studies

Fish and shellfish are exposed to a wide range of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) following oil spills at sea, and can become contaminated as a result. Finfish have a more effective mixed-function oxidase enzyme system than shellfish, and are therefore able to metabolise and excrete PAH more effectively than the invertebrates. Thus, contamination by high-molecular weight PAH, including those with carcinogenic potential and so of concern with regard to human consumers, is therefore usually observed in shellfish, and particularly in bivalve molluscs. Oil spills are not the sole source of PAH, however, as parent compounds are also generated by a wide range of combustion processes. In this paper, consideration is given to monitoring data gathered following recent oil spills (both of crude oil and diesel fuel), alongside data from other studies. These include studies conducted around a former gasworks site and downstream of an aluminium smelter in the UK, and from mussel monitoring studies undertaken in the UK and the USA (including the Exxon Valdez oil spill and the National Status and Trends programme), and in other countries in Europe. For comparative purposes the PAH concentrations are summed and also expressed as benzo[a]pyrene equivalents, their relative concentrations being weighted in relation to the carcinogenic potential of individual PAH compounds using toxic equivalency factors (TEF). Our aim was to assess the utility of this approach in fishery resource monitoring and control following oil spills. Certainly this approach seems useful from the data assessed in this study. and the relative ranking of the various studies seems to reflect the relative degree of concern for human consumers due to the differing contamination sources. As a simple tool for control purposes it is equally applicable to PAH derived from oil spills, and from industrial and combustion sources.     

Ozone Exposures and Implications for Vegetation in Rural Areas of the Central Appalachian Mountains, U.S.A.

The United States is making the transition from the 1979 1 hr maximum ozone standard to the newly adopted 8 hr ozone standard (3 yr average of the 4th highest maximum 8 hr ozone concentration). Consequently, we analyzed and compared ozone concentrations under both standards from a variety of monitoring sites throughout the central Appalachian region of Kentucky (KY), West Virginia (WV), and Virginia (VA). Data from 1988-1999 were used to determine how ozone exposure between the two metrics compared for remote sites. Most sites exceeded the 1 hr standard in 1988-1990 due to the 3 yr averaging and multiple high ozone concentrations that occurred over the region in 1988. All sites were in compliance with the 1 hr standard every year after 1991. It was much more common for the ozone exposure to exceed the 8 hr standard, particularly from 1997-1999. Many sites showed exceedences beginning in 1995; Big Meadows (VA) exceeded the 8 hr standard all years except 1994 and 1996. Response of vegetation to ozone in these areas was determined using the combination of W126 values (sigmoidally weighted exposure index), the number of hours that average concentrations > or = 0.10 ppm (N100), and the presence of moderate or more extreme droughts. In general, W126 and N100 values suggested that negative vegetation growth responses over most of the 12 yr would have been minimal for most sites, even for those exceeding ozone standards. Drought-induced stomatal closures would have overridden more extreme negative growth responses at all but the Big Meadows site in 1988.     

Organisational socialisation in a crisis context

The objective of this paper is to highlight the dimensions characterising the socialisation process in a crisis context. Based on the definition of organisational socialisation advanced by Van Maanen and Schein (1979) and employed later by Jones (1986), a crisis is presented as a passage from a ‘normal’ situation to an ‘exceptional’ situation. A crisis represents a socialisation context in the sense that it is a novel state in which actors must develop a different way of mobilising their knowledge, utilising their skills, and practicing their trade or profession. The paper discusses certain findings that have emerged from the literature on organisational socialisation, as well as from the testimony of actors who participated in efforts to manage the Quebec ice‐storm crisis of early 1998. It is hoped that this exploratory study's data will give rise to fruitful interaction between the field of organisational socialisation and that of crisis management.