Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

Frequency of multiple paternity varies between two populations of brown smoothhound shark,Mustelus henlei

Multiple paternity was recently observed in a population of the brown smoothhound shark, Mustelus henlei, from Las Barrancas, Baja California Sur, Mexico, with litters demonstrating the greatest percentage of multiple paternity for any shark species (93 % of litters and an average number of sires = 2.3). To determine whether this frequency is consistent elsewhere in the species’ range, 4 polymorphic microsatellite loci were used to determine the frequency of multiple paternity in 18 litters of M. henlei from Santa Catalina Island, CA, sampled in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Multiple paternity varied among sampling years with 2004 demonstrating multiple sires for 40 % of sampled litters (n = 10) with an average of 1.4 sires per litter and 2008/2012 demonstrating a total lack of multiply sired litters (n = 8). Although multiple paternity was detected in this study, the range of frequencies observed is lower than that observed in the Mexican population. Based on these findings, investigators should take location into consideration when assessing the existence of multiple paternity in future studies of elasmobranch species.     

Carbonaceous aerosol over a Pinus taeda forest in Central North Carolina,USA

Organic aerosol is the least understood component of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). In this study, organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) within ambient PM_2.5 over a three-year period at a forested site in the North Carolina Piedmont are presented. EC exhibited significant weekday/weekend effects and less significant seasonal effects, in contrast to OC, which showed strong seasonal differences and smaller weekend/weekday effects. Summer OC concentrations are about twice as high as winter concentrations, while EC was somewhat higher in the winter. OC was highly correlated with EC during cool periods when both were controlled by primary combustion sources. This correlation decreased with increasing temperature, reflecting higher contributions from secondary organic aerosol, likely of biogenic origin. PM_2.5 radiocarbon data from the site confirms that a large fraction of the carbon in PM_2.5 is indeed of biogenic origin, since modern (non-fossil fuel derived) carbon accounted for 80% of the PM_2.5 carbon over the course of a year. OC and EC exhibited distinct diurnal profiles, with summertime OC peaking in late evening and declining until midday. During winter, OC peaked during the early morning hours and again declined until midday. Summertime EC peaked during late morning hours except on weekends. Wintertime EC often peaked in late PM or early AM hours due to local residential wood combustion emissions. The highest short term peaks in OC and EC were associated with wildfire events. These data corroborate recent source apportionment studies conducted within 20 km of our site, where oxidation products of isoprene, α-pinene, and β-caryophyllene were identified as important precursors to organic aerosols. A large fraction of the carbon in rural southeastern ambient PM_2.5 appears to be of biogenic origin, which is probably difficult to reduce by anthropogenic controls.     

Inconsistent temporal changes in the megabenthos of the English Channel

A survey was undertaken of the benthic communities found at ten stations that were sampled by Norman Holme in the 1950s. These stations were selected because Holme recorded the presence of large bivalve species (Glycymeris glycymeris and Paphia rhomboides). Fauna with large body-size are known to be most susceptible to disturbance by human activity, so the presence or absence of these organisms might indicate whether such disturbance has increased at these sites since the 1950s. As expected, differences were detected in the community composition between sites that were located in deeper or shallower water. These differences were consistent for the communities sampled in the present study and for those sampled by Holme. The brittlestar Ophiothrix fragilis was highly abundant at only one site. Nevertheless, long-lived bivalve species still occurred at most of the sites sampled in 1998. G. glycymeris was absent from two sites sampled in 1998 and P. rhomboides was absent from only one site in 1998. Holme suggested that his reported decline in the abundance of O. fragilis might be attributed to the increase in bottom fishing in the English Channel. However, the continued presence of long-lived bivalves at most sites would suggest that other factors could be responsible. A comparison of bivalve and echinoderm species that occurred in the 1950s and in 1998 indicated the occurrence of relatively large temporal changes, as might be expected over a period of more than 40 years. However, this occurred at eight of the ten sites. At two sites, the spatial variation was quantitatively similar to the temporal variation. This suggests that areas of the sea bed exist that have a similar community composition to those found prior to the general increase in bottom-fishing disturbance.     

The Use of Geographic Information Systems for Resource Evaluation: A New Zealand Example

Over the last decade, New Zealand has implemented innovative reforms in respect of natural resource and environmental management. These include the Resource ManagementAct 1991 (RMA), a notable feature of which is the adoption of 'sustainable management' as the key principle guiding resource allocation and use. This and other features of the new administrative context for resource management strongly suggest a prominent role for geographicinformation systems (GIS) and related spatial information technology. In this paper we present an outline of the Regional Resource Evaluation Project (RREP), a project that has been established to explore and demonstrate the capabilities of GIS and related spatial information technology in the context of resource analysis and decision making. To date, the RREP has achieved important outcomes in terms of database design and development. An extensive information base which incorporates data on the physical and natural environment, patterns of human activity, and on social and demographic characteristics has been assembled. We describe the information systems, as well as some of the technical issues that attend to database design and development.We also provide brief reviews of two applications of the GIS to resource evaluation. One relates to the evaluation of changes in regional land use, with a focus on natural habitats. The other is concerned with land suitability assessment for plantation forestry.     

Preparing future engineers for challenges of the 21st century: Sustainable engineering

The field of engineering is changing rapidly as the growing global population puts added demands on the earth's resources: engineering decisions must now account for limitations in materials and energy as well as the need to reduce discharges of wastes. This means educators must revise courses and curricula so engineering graduates are prepared for the new challenges as practicing engineers. The Center for Sustainable Engineering has been established to help faculty members accommodate such changes through workshops and new educational materials, including a free access website with peer-reviewed materials.     

Forging new links between environmental management,information systems,and business processes

This article is excerpted from Chapter 1 of Environmental Management Information Systems, which will be published by McGraw-Hill in 1994. A central theme of the book is that all successful implementations of environmental management information systems (EMIS) are based on the appropriate alignment of goals and procedures from three enterprise domains: business processes, environmental management, and information systems. Environmental managers (EM) and information systems (IS) professionals have each been guilty of seeing their functions as primary, domains of specialized scientific expertise inaccessible to outsiders. In fact, however, the enterprise is the customer for both domains; without successful business strategies and systems the enterprise does not require either EM or IS wizards. This article shows why and how essential it is that each of the three domains understands enough of the other two domains to structure good decisions.