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81.
David L. MacIntosh James H. Stewart Theodore A. Myatt Joseph E. Sabato George C. Flowers Kirk W. Brown Dennis J. Hlinka David A. Sullivan 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(2):262-270
CALPUFF is an atmospheric source-receptor model recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use on a case-by-case basis in complex terrain and wind conditions. The ability of the model to provide useful information for exposure assessments in areas with those topographical and meteorological conditions has received little attention. This is an important knowledge gap for use of CALPUFF outside of regulatory applications, such as exposure analyses conducted in support of risk assessments and health studies. We compared deposition of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) calculated with CALPUFF as a result of emissions from a zinc smelter with corresponding concentrations of the metals measured in attic dust and soil samples obtained from the surrounding area. On a point-by-point analysis, predictions from CALPUFF explained 11% (lead) to 53% (zinc) of the variability in concentrations measured in attic dust. Levels of heavy metals in soil interpolated to 100 residential addresses from the distribution of concentrations measured in soil samples also agreed well with deposition predicted with CALPUFF: R2 of 0.46, 0.76, and 079 for Pb, Cd, and Zn, respectively. Community-average concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn measured in soil were significantly (p < 0.0001) and strongly correlated (R2 ranged from 0.77 to 0.98) with predicted deposition rates. These findings demonstrate that CALPUFF can provide reasonably accurate predictions of the patterns of long-term air pollutant deposition in the near-field associated with emissions from a discrete source in complex terrain. Because deposition estimates are calculated as a linear function of air concentrations, CALPUFF is expected to be reliable model for prediction of long-term average, near-field ambient air concentrations in complex terrain as well. 相似文献
82.
For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997‐2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non‐human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth. 相似文献
83.
The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges. 相似文献
84.
David M. Meko Matthew D. Therrell Christopher H. Baisan Malcolm K. Hughes 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2001,37(4):1029-1039
ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought. 相似文献
85.
W.J.F. Standring J.E. Brown M. Dowdall E.M. Korobova V.G. Linnik A.G. Volosov 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2009,100(12):1109
The Mining and Chemical Industrial Combine, Zheleznogorsk (MCIC, previously known as Krasnoyarsk-26) on the River Yenisey has contaminated the surrounding environment with anthropogenic radionuclides as a result of discharges of radioactive wastes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the vertical distribution of anthropogenic contamination (137Cs and plutonium) within floodplain areas at different distances from the discharge point. Sites were chosen that display different characteristics with respect to periodic inundation with river water. Cs-137 activity concentrations were in the range 23–3770 Bq/kg (dry weight, d.w.); Pu-239,240 activity concentrations were in the range <0.01–14.2 Bq/kg (d.w.). Numerous sample cores exhibited sub-surface maxima which may be related to the historical discharges from the MCIC. Possible evidence indicating the deposition of earlier discharges at MCIC in deeper core layers was observed in the 238Pu:239,240Pu activity ratio data: a Pu signal discernible from global fallout could be observed in numerous samples. Cs-137 and Pu-239,240 activity concentrations were correlated with the silt fraction (% by mass <63 μm) though no significant correlation was observed between (grain-size) normalised 137Cs activity concentrations and distance downstream from the MCIC. 相似文献
86.
87.
Patrick L. Witmer Paul M. Stewart Christopher K. Metcalf 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2009,45(3):734-747
Abstract: Unpaved road‐stream crossings increase sediment yields in streams and alter channel morphology and stability. Before restoration and sedimentation reduction strategies can be implemented, a priority listing of unpaved road‐stream crossings must be created. The objectives of this study were to develop a sedimentation risk index (SRI) for unpaved road‐stream crossings and to prioritize 125 sites in the Choctawhatchee watershed (southeastern Alabama) using this model. Field surveys involved qualitative and quantitative observations of 73 metrics related to waterway conditions, crossing structures, road approaches, and roadside soil erosion. The road‐stream crossing risk analyses involved elimination of candidate metrics based on redundancy, skewness, lack of data, professional judgment, lack of nonzero values, unbalanced box plots, and limited ranges of values. A final selection of 12 metrics formed the SRI and weighed factors involving soil erodibility, road sedimentation abatement features, and stream morphology alteration. The SRI was organized into narrative categories (excellent, good, fair, poor, and very poor) based on the distribution of scores. No excellent sites (scores ≥55) were found in this study, 17 (20.7%) were good (low sedimentation risk), 37 (45.1%) were fair (moderate sedimentation risk), 26 (31.7%) were poor (high sedimentation risk), and two (2.5%) were very poor (high sedimentation risk). There was no significant difference in SRI scores among crossing structure type (round culverts, box culverts, and bridges) (H = 4.31, df = 2, p = 0.058). A future study of the Choctawhatchee watershed involving the same study sites could assess the success of restoration plans and activities based on site score improvement or decline. 相似文献
88.
Association of plutonium with sediments from the Ob and Yenisey Rivers and Estuaries 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Lindis Skipperud Justin Brown L. Keith Fifield Deborah H. Oughton Brit Salbu 《Journal of environmental radioactivity》2009
The present study applied sequential extraction techniques to investigate the binding and mobility of plutonium (Pu) in sediments from the rivers and estuaries of the Ob and Yenisey. As a study site, the Ob and Yenisey are particularly interesting as both rivers have weapons-grade Pu sources in their catchment areas, including the Russian Pu production and reprocessing plants at Mayak, Tomsk-7 and Krashnoyarsk, and the Semipalantinsk nuclear weapons testing site in Kazakhstan. Plutonium activity and 240Pu/239Pu ratios were determined using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Sequential extractions showed that between 47 and 80% of the Pu in Yenisey River sediments and 35–53% of the Pu in soils around the Techa River are mobilized with weak oxidising agents, which can indicate that Pu is bound to organic material. In contrast, Pu in Ob and Yenisey Estuarine sediments was more strongly bound, with 60–100% being found in the HNO3-extractable fraction. This change in speciation could reflect either that Pu bound to organic material in the Techa and Yenisey River sediments becomes more fixed to the sediments with time, or that organic-bound Pu is mobilized and released to the water when the sediments encounter the more saline water of the Ob and Yenisey estuaries. In general, 240Pu/239Pu ratios were relatively consistent between different extraction fractions, although, in whole sediments, an increase in ratio was observed with distance from the source. This reflects the increased influence of weapon fallout from catchment runoff within the river systems, as compared to the weapons-grade sources close to the production and reprocessing plants. Knowledge of Pu speciation in the Ob and Yenisey Rivers, and the processes controlling its behaviour in estuarine systems, can improve predictions of its transfer and subsequent environmental impact to Arctic Seas. 相似文献
89.
Benjamin M. Jones Christopher D. Arp Kenneth M. Hinkel Richard A. Beck Joel A. Schmutz Barry Winston 《Environmental management》2009,43(6):1071-1084
Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources.
Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide
an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand
seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter
water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced
Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual
variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation
in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution
aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were
used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent
changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical
areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that
both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding
may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA. 相似文献
90.
William C. Porter M. Aslam K. Khalil Christopher L. Butenhoff Mansour Almazroui Abdulrahman K. Al-Khalaf Mohammed Saleh Al-Sahafi 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2014,64(7):817-826
Air pollution has been an increasing concern within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. In this work the authors present an analysis of daily ozone (O3), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and particulate matter (<10 μm aerodynamic diameter; PM10) concentrations for two years (2010 and 2011) at sites in and around the coastal city of Jeddah, as well as a remote background site for comparison. Monthly and weekly variations, along with their implications and consequences, were also examined. O3 within Jeddah was remarkably low, and exhibited the so-called weekend effect—elevated O3 levels on the weekends, despite reduced emissions of O3 precursors on those days. Weekend O3 increases averaged between 12% and 14% in the city, suggesting that NOx/volatile organic compound (VOC) ratios within cities such as Jeddah may be exceptionally high. Sites upwind or far removed from Jeddah did not display this weekend effect. Based on these results, emission control strategies in and around Jeddah must carefully address NOx/VOC ratios so as to reduce O3 at downwind locations without increasing it within urban locations themselves. PM10 concentrations within Jeddah were elevated compared with North American cites of similar climatology, though comparable to other large cities within the Middle East.
Implications:Daily concentrations of O3, PM10, and NOx in and around the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are analyzed and compared with those of other reference cities. Extremely low O3 levels, along with a significant urban weekend effect (higher weekend O3, despite reduced NOx concentrations), is apparent, along with high levels of PM10 within the city. Urban O3 in Jeddah was found to be lower than that of other comparable cities, but the strong weekend effect suggests that care must be taken to reduce downwind O3 levels without increasing them within the city itself. Further research into the emissions and chemistry contributing to the reduced O3 levels within the city is warranted. 相似文献