Spatial and temporal variability of ambient air toxics data

This paper summarizes information on the spatial and temporal variability of selected air toxics pollutants collected on a national basis primarily for a period encompassing 1990-2003. Spatial information on pollutant concentrations is characterized in terms of within-city and between-city variability. Temporal information is summarized as diurnal and seasonal variability and in multiyear trends. The information on variability is presented in the framework of a larger need for systematic documentation of information on air toxics pollutants to assess progress in air pollution control programs.     

Causal regulations vs. political will: why human zoonotic infections increase despite precautionary bans on animal antibiotics.

Using precautionary principles when facing incomplete facts and causal conjectures raises the possibility of a Faustian bargain. This paper applies systems dynamics based on previously unavailable data to show how well intended precautionary policies for promoting food safety may backfire unless they are informed by quantitative cause-and-effect models of how animal antibiotics affect animal and human health. We focus on European Union and United States formulations of regulatory precaution and then analyze zoonotic infections in terms of the consequences of relying on political will to justify precautionary bans. We do not attempt a political analysis of these issues; rather, we conduct a regulatory analysis of precautionary legal requirements and use Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to assess a set of policy outcomes. Thirty-seven years ago, the Joint Committee on the Use of Antibiotics in Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine (the Swann Report) warned that uncontrolled use of similar antibiotics in humans and food animals could promote the emergence of resistant strains of foodborne bacteria that could endanger human health. Since then, many countries have either banned or restricted antibiotics as feed additives for promoting animal growth. Others, including the United States, have relied on prudent use guidelines and programs that reduce total microbial loads, rather than focusing exclusively on antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In retrospect, the regulatory strategy of banning or restricting animal antibiotic uses has had limited success: it has been followed in many cases by deteriorating animal health and increases in human illnesses and resistance rates. Conversely, a combination of continued prudent use of antibiotics to prevent and control animal infections, together with HACCP and other improvements, has been followed by large improvements in the microbial safety of chickens and other food animals in the United States, leaving both animals and people better off now than they were decades ago. A quantitative risk assessment model of microbiological risks (Campylobacter because of data availability) suggests that these outcomes may be more than coincidental: prudent use of animal antibiotics may actually improve human health, while bans on animal antibiotics, intended to be precautionary, inadvertently may harm human health.     

DECISION PARAMETERS FOR COMBINED USE OF EFFLUENT DISCHARGES,SURFACE FLOWS,AND GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Decision parameters affecting combined use of effluent discharges and surface flows and ground water available at Gillespie Dam on the Gila River in Arizona are identified and analyzed. Hydrologic, economic, legal, and institutional parameters are considered separately and in combination. The interrelationships of irrigation subsystems, water use functions, institutional involvement, economic and legal constraints are illustrated. Recent hydrologic studies indicate that the natural flow of the Gila River will increase with the discharge of Phoenix sewage effluent and then there will be a drastic decline when the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station commences in 1985. Competition for any increases in effluent discharges and surface flows could be ameliorated through the combined efforts of existing or reorganized entities resulting in sharing of costs and benefits. The analysis leads to recommendations concerning joint use of facilities, proration of fixed and variable costs, and creation of a mutual water company.     

COMPLEMENTING OBJECTIVE PROCEDURES WITH SUBJECTIVE PRIORS IN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A procedure is outlined which allows consideration of both objective and subjective indicators to establish priorities in plan implementation of water resource development. The objective procedure utilizes stepwise multiple discriminant analysis to predict community performance regarding planned project implementation, based on previous project implementation in the Northeast. The subjective procedure incorporates prior probabilities developed by the planner, based on observation and experience gained through the planning process. The proposed analysis could eliminate waste through better allocation of planning funds to implementation studies exhibiting higher probability of early implementation.     

Effects of mechanical fracturing and experimental trampling on Hawaiian corals

In situ trampling occurred under experimental conditions to quantify the differences in the responses to anthropogenic trampling in four dominant species of Hawaiian corals, Porites compressa, Porites lobata, Montipora capitata, and Pocillopora meandrina. Trampling was simulated daily for a period of nine days at which time further breakage was minimal. Forty treatment colonies produced 559 fragments. Trampling was followed by an 11-month recovery period. Coral colony and fragment mortality was low. All four species were highly tolerant of inflicted damage, suggesting that some species of corals can withstand limited pulse events that allow time for recovery. Growth rates following trampling were significantly lower in the treatment groups for three of the four species. This study demonstrated that very few trampling events can produce significant changes in growth even after a long recovery period. Survivorship of fragments is clearly size- and species-dependent in M. capitata and P. compressa. Smaller fragments (<5 cm) had higher mortality than larger fragments (>5 cm). High breakage rates for M. capitata and P. compressa are consistent with the nearshore, low-energy regions they inhabit—the same environment frequented by skin divers and waders. Mechanical tests were conducted to determine tensile and compressive strengths. Pocillopora meandrina exhibited the strongest skeletal strength, followed in decreasing order by Porites lobata, Porites compressa, and Montipora capitata. The skeletal strength obtained from the experiments correlate with the wave energy present in the environments in the regions they inhabit, suggesting that structural strength of corals is an adaptive response to hydraulic stress.     

Potential human health benefits of antibiotics used in food animals: a case study of virginiamycin

Risk management of food-animal antibiotics has reached a crucial juncture for public health officials worldwide. While withdrawals of animal antibiotics previously used to control animal bacterial illnesses are being encouraged in many countries, the human health impacts of such withdrawals are only starting to be understood. Increases in animal and human bacterial illness rates and antibiotic resistance levels in humans in Europe despite bans on animal antibiotics there have raised questions about how animal antibiotic use affects human health. This paper presents a quantitative human health risk and benefits assessment for virginiamycin (VM), a streptogramin antibiotic recommended for withdrawal from use in food animals in several countries. It applies a new quantitative Rapid Risk Rating Technique (RRRT) that estimates and multiplies data-driven exposure, dose-response, and consequence factors, as suggested by WHO (2003) to estimate human health impacts from withdrawing virginiamycin. Increased human health risks from more pathogens reaching consumers if VM use is terminated (6660 estimated excess campylobacteriosis cases per year in the base case) are predicted to far outweigh benefits from reduced streptogramin-resistant vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREF) infections in human patients (0.27 estimated excess cases per year in the base case). While lack of information about impacts of VM withdrawal on average human illnesses-per-serving of food animal meat precludes a deterministic conclusion, it appears very probable that such a withdrawal would cause many times more human illnesses than it would prevent. This qualitative conclusion appears to be robust to several scientific and modeling uncertainties.     

Heavy metal distribution and controlling factors within coastal plain sediments, Bells Creek catchment, southeast Queensland, Australia

Bells Creek catchment in southeast Queensland (Australia) is a non-industrialised coastal plain limited to small settlements and agricultural land. A study was initiated to examine elevated metal concentrations and to assess horizontal and vertical distribution of those elements. Ninety-nine samples were analysed for Cr, V, Ni, Cu, Zn, Pb, As, Fe, Mn and Al. Total organic carbon, sulfur content and mineralogy of samples along with land-use practices across the catchment were used to identify processes which influence metal distribution. A comparison between metal concentration within the study area and mean heavy metal content of standard sandstone showed that except for Mn, all other metals showed elevated levels throughout the catchment. When metal concentrations were compared to parent bedrock, however, it was concluded that elevated levels are likely to be natural. A normalisation procedure was applied to the data set and this analysis validated that elevated trace metal concentrations in most samples are not due to artificial contamination. While surficial estuarine sediments were only enriched in V, soils were dominantly enriched in Cr, Zn and V. Overall, geochemistry and mineralogy of the samples show the effect of both natural and anthropogenic inputs to the catchment, however, natural processes are more dominant than anthropogenic inputs in concentrating metals.     

A process-based model designed for filling of large data gaps in tower-based measurements of net ecosystem productivity

In this paper we present a simple hybrid gap-filling model (GFM) designed with a minimum number of parameters necessary to capture the ecological processes important for filling medium-to-large gaps in Flux data. As the model is process-based, the model has potential to be used in filling large gaps exhibiting a broad range of micro-meteorological and site conditions. The GFM performance was evaluated using “Punch hole” and extrapolation experiments based on data collected in west-central New Brunswick. These experiments indicated that the GFM is able to provide acceptable results (r² > 0.80) when >500 data points are used in model parameterization. The GFM was shown to address daytime evolution of NEP reasonably well for a wide range of weather and site conditions. An analysis of residuals indicated that for the most part no obvious trends were evident; although a slight bias was detected in NEP with soil temperature. To explore the portability of the GFM across ecosystem types, a transcontinental validation was conducted using NEP and ancillary data from seven ecosystems along a north-south transect (i.e., temperature–moisture gradient) from northern Europe (Finland) to the Middle East (Israel). The GFM was shown to explain over 75% of the variability in NEP measured at most ecosystems, which strongly suggests that the GFM maybe successfully applied to forest ecosystems outside Canada.