Simulation experiments comparing alternative process formulations using a factorial design

This paper reviews methods for exploring the differences between alternative equations in complex ecosystem models. A factorial design is proposed as a method for exposing possible interactions between equation forms in their effect on model output as well as to clarify differences between the main candidate equations. A number of display methods arising from statistical analysis are used including normal Q-Q plots, linear rank plots and interaction diagrams. The methods were illustrated using a complex ecosystem model of Lake Ontario. We found the methods effective at illustrating major differences between equations although several difficulties arose due to the complexity of the models and the diffuse nature of the data supporting model validation. Questions of the method for standardization of equation forms so that the compared equations are in some way analogous, are important. These methods are probably most useful in cases where the data are of sufficient quality to indicate not only how different equation forms affect model output but also which are to be preferred.     

Effects of deodorants on treatment of boat holding-tank waste

A literature search and survey of Virginia, USA, campgrounds with RV pump-out stations were used to determine whether boat holding-tank deodorant chemicals would have deleterious effects on marina septic systems or package treatment plants. Laboratory studies reported in the literature indicate that these chemical additives could affect septic system function in three ways: (1) active ingredients in the additives can impair sewage degradation in septic tanks, causing sludge buildup and overflow of solids into the drainfield, (2) additive chemicals might enter the drainfield and, in high enough concentrations, reduce the drainfield's ability to degrade waste, or (3) toxic additive chemicals might migrate from the drainfield to ground or surface water. Laboratory studies also show that some ingredients added to holding tanks interfere with functioning of activated sludge treatment process. Experience in the field and in other laboratory studies suggests that factors such as dilution of treated waste with untreated waste and the characteristics of the sewage to be treated can reduce the possibility of damage to septic and activated sludge systems. The campground owners surveyed indicated that they have few problems with their septic systems in spite of the presence of chemical additives in the RV waste. However, most of them practice good septic system maintenance and have devised other means of ensuring that their systems function efficiently. In addition, the survey indicates that most Virginia campgrounds get only seasonal use (as would marinas in Virginia), allowing their systems to recover between peak seasons.     

恢复力与可持续发展:在瞬息万变的世界中增强适应能力

由于在以往的自然资源政策上逐渐暴露出了两个带根本性的错误,人们开始意识到在环境管理理论和实践方面需要进行一场全球性的重大改革.第一个错误是毫无保留地假定生态系统对人类利用所作出的反应是呈线性关系、是可以预测和控制的.第二个错误是认定人类社会与天然系统可以分别对待,不必联系在一起进行考虑.然而,从世界各地收集到的证据表明,天然系统和人类社会系统是以非线性方式运行的、在其动态运行过程中均有其显著的极限,而且,人类社会与生态系统表现为一种紧密相联的、复杂的且不断演变的综合系统.本文是代表瑞典政府环境咨询委员会编写的一份报告的摘要,这份报告是作为向2002年8月26日～9月4日在南非约翰内斯堡召开的可持续发展世界首脑会议献礼的论文而撰写的.从概念上说,恢复力是一种能缓冲变化所带来的影响、学习知识和求得发展的能力,我们将它作为在一个纷纭复杂、快速变化的世界中,是否真正懂得如何维护和提高适应能力的一种参照标准来使用.在社会、生态综合系统中,有两种有用的工具可用来提高恢复力,一种是结构严谨的工作方案,另一种是积极的适应力管理.这两种工具都需要而且有助于形成这样一种社会环境:具有灵活开放的组织机构和多层次的监管体制,允许学习适应力方面的知识和提高适应力但又不妨碍对未来的发展作出选择.     

The prenatal detection of a familial pericentric inversion of chromosome 19

A familial pericentric inversion of chromosome 19 was detected prenatally in a young primagravida. As far as the authors are aware there are no previous published reports of this rare abnormality being ascertained in this manner. The problems of counselling such a family are considered.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Pseudomosaicism,true mosaicism,and maternal cell contamination in amniotic fluid processed with in situ culture and robotic harvesting

This study was designed to test the usefulness of the common definitions for maternal cell contamination, true mosaicism, and pseudomosaicism for amniotic fluid specimens processed by in situ culture and robotic harvesting. We prospectively studied 4309 consecutive amniotic fluid specimens processed with these methods and found that 0.84 per cent had maternal cell contamination, 0.28 per cent had true mosaicism, and 5.4 per cent had pseudomosaicism. Although the frequencies of maternal cell contamination and true mosaicism were comparable to those in similar published studies, the frequency of pseudomosaicism was more than twice as high as that in previous reports. This finding is most likely not due to the method, but rather to a more accurate estimate of the actual frequency of pseudomosaicism in amniotic fluid cultures than reported heretofore. Follow-up clinical information was available on 72 per cent of the cases. In three cases of true mosaicism involving structural anomalies, the results of cytogenetic follow-up studies on the neonates were normal. None of the pseudomosaic cases involving trisomy 8, 13, 18, or 21; triple X; or monosomy X were associated with newborns who had birth defects.     

How colony growth affects forager intrusion between neighboring harvester ant colonies

Summary Colonies of the harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex barbatus, adjust the direction and length of foraging trails in response to the foraging behavior of their conspecific neighbors. In the absence of any interaction with its neighbor, a mature colony expands its foraging range at a rate of 0.85 ± 0.15 m per day. Exclusion experiments show that if a colony is prevented from using its foraging trails, the neighbors of that colony will enter its foraging range within 10 days. Exclusion experiments were performed with three age classes of colonies: young (1 year old), intermediate (3–4 years old), and old (5 years old or more). Colonies 3–4 years old are most likely to expand foraging ranges, and to retain newly-gained areas. To examine the relation of colony age (in years) and colony size (in numbers of workers), colonies of known age were excavated. Colonies increase greatly in size in years 3 and 4. Foraging area may be of greater current or prospective value for younger, smaller, quickly growing colonies than for older, larger ones of stable size. Correspondence to the second address     

Effects of water motion on propagule release from algae with complex life histories

Reproductive marine algae with complex life histories may respond differently to water motion depending upon whether the spore-producing or gamete-producing phase is considered. Two such species, the kelp Alaria esculenta (L.) Greville (Phaeophyceae) and Ulva lactuca L. (Chlorophyta), were examined experimentally in the laboratory. The kelp was collected in April–June 2000 and U. lactuca was collected in July–August 2000, from four intertidal habitats at Schoodic Point, Maine, USA. Orbital shakers were used to generate water motion. Sporophylls of A. esculenta released more zoospores under shaken versus calm conditions, whereas fewer antheridia on the microscopic male gametophytes released sperm under shaken versus calm conditions when male and female gametophytes were placed together. However, antheridial sperm release was equivalent when male gametophytes were exposed to undiluted media from dense cultures of mature female gametophytes under shaken versus calm conditions. These data suggest that water motion inhibited sperm release by diluting the sperm-releasing pheromone produced by ripe eggs below a threshold required to cause sperm release. Water motion stimulated both gamete and zoospore release from U. lactuca. This is the first report in an alga of stimulation of gamete release by increased water motion, but it is notable that parthenogenesis occurs in Ulva spp.; thus, gametes may develop into gametophytes (1 N) or parthenosporophytes (2 N). This study demonstrates that water motion has strong effects upon algal reproduction, but that the effects may vary between species, possibly due to their different life histories.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Effects of O2, pH and DIC on photosynthetic net-O2 evolution by marine macroalgae

Net photosynthetic O₂ evolution by five marine macroalgae:Ulva lactuca L.,Enteromorpha sp.,Ceramium strictum Harvey,Fucus serratus L., andF. vesiculosus L., collected from Danish waters in the summer of 1983 was followed at increasing O₂ and with pH either fixed close to pH 7, 8 or 9, or drifting upwards during photosynthesis in a closed chamber to determine the effects of changing O₂, pH and DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) on photosynthesis. Increasing O₂, increasing pH and decreasing DIC together limited O₂ evolution. Raising the O₂ concentration with pH and DIC held constant resulted in less inhibition of net-O₂ evolution than when all three factors acted together. The O₂ inhibition of photosynthesis was similar to the reported O₂ inhibition of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase isolated from lower and higher plants. Net-O₂ evolution as a function of the molar ratio of O₂ to HCO^– ₃ + CO₂ in solution provided a general, linear relationship (r ² = 0.72 to 0.84), predicting inhibition of photosynthesis based on O₂ pH and DIC changing together. Slopes of this relationship, representing competition between O₂ and carbon based on external concentrations, were similar for the five taxonomically different algae, suggesting that similar processes act to reduce net-O₂ evolution.