Model correlation in stochastic forest simulators—A case of multilevel multivariate model for seedling establishment

Forest development can be predicted by the use of forest simulators based on various statistical models describing the forest and its dynamics. One potential approach to study the reliability of the simulators is to utilise Monte Carlo simulation techniques to generate a predictive distribution of a forest characteristic. One problem in examining the effect of model uncertainty in forestry decision making, however, is correlation between the models. If this is not taken into account, predictions of the model systems may become biased, and the effect of errors on decision making may be underestimated. In reality, the models often are interdependent, but the correlations usually are not known because the models have been estimated in separate studies. The aim of this paper is to study the impacts of between-model dependencies on the predictive distribution of forest characteristics by Monte Carlo simulation techniques. We utilise a case of predicting seedling establishment of planted Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands as an example with multivariate multilevel model structures. Regardless of low cross-correlations between the models, ignoring them led to significant underestimation of the amount of competing broadleaves to be removed in pre-commercial thinning. Therefore, we recommend that between-model dependencies are clarified and considered in stochastic simulations. In our case, between-model interdependencies can be reliably estimated with a limited dataset. In addition, estimating the models separately and using the model residuals to estimate interdependencies between models were also sufficient to take the between-model dependencies into account when producing stochastic predictions for silvicultural decision making.     

Has long-term metal exposure induced changes in life history traits and genetic diversity of the enchytraeid worm Cognettia sphagnetorum (Vejd.)?

We studied whether long-term metal exposure has affected life history traits, population growth patterns and genetic diversity of the asexual enchytraeid worm Cognettia sphagnetorum (Vejd.). Enchytraeids from metal contaminated and uncontaminated forest soil were compared by growing them individually in the laboratory and by following their population development in patchily Cu contaminated microcosms. Genetic differences between the two native populations were studied using allozyme electrophoresis. Individuals from the contaminated site had slower growth rate and they produced fewer fragments of larger size when compared to individuals from the uncontaminated site. In patchily Cu contaminated microcosms, C. sphagnetorum from the contaminated site had a slower population growth rate. Most alleles were shared by the two native populations, but there was greater diversity and more unique genotypes in the population living in the uncontaminated site. Overall, long-term exposure to metals has induced only slight changes in life history properties and clonal diversity of C. sphagnetorum.     

Characterization of bioactive plant ellagitannins by chromatographic, spectroscopic and mass spectrometric methods

Ellagitannins are widely distributed plant polyphenols showing potent anti-herbivore activities, but rather complex chemical structures. Here we show how ellagitannins with different structures can be efficiently characterized from plant extracts by utilizing the information obtained from four universal methods used for ellagitannin analysis: Sephadex LH-20 gel chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography, ultraviolet spectroscopy, and mass spectrometry. We show that by combining the information obtained from the ellagitannins’ chromatographic elution order, specific shapes of the ultraviolet spectra, molecular masses and characteristic mass spectral fragmentations, it is possible to classify these polyphenols into different ellagitannin sub-groups, and even characterize the structures within the sub-groups. These findings aid in the fast screening of complex plant samples for their ellagitannin composition without having to isolate compounds for individual characterization.     

Protected forests in Europe approaches-harmonising the definitions for international comparison and forest policy making

Comparison of forest protection between regions in Europe is extremely difficult, because there is such wide variation of strategies, procedures and constraints; the way forests have been used historically and their present closeness to nature also varies, and furthermore so does the definition of what constitutes a forest. For the European Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE) in 2003, forest protection has been harmonised into three categories for the sake of comparison: protection to safeguard biodiversity, protection of landscape and specific natural features, and protective forest functions.There is no single, uniform and universal model and no internationally agreed target with respect to the percentage of forests which should be protected. What is more important than a fixed percentage level of forested area (e.g. 5 or 10%) is that the protection network should be biogeographically and ecologically representative and accordingly distributed on a regional basis. Long-term practical experience and research have proved that conservation of different species of organisms can be assured by appropriate silvicultural management of multifunctional production forests. Consequently, the focus of debate in Europe appears to shift more and more from total protection in segregated areas to 'precision protection' and to combining protection and timber production in the holistic, integrated concept of modern management of forest areas.Advances in regional ecological planning and the growing adoption of naturalistic forest management practices have slowed the decline of the biological diversity in the multifunctional production forests. However, this fact is not yet widely and sufficiently acknowledged and appreciated. There is consequently a political and scientific need for continued study of the effects of naturalistic silvicultural management on the biodiversity of forests. Information from such research is crucially needed before new and additional protection networks and schemes are set up on a large-scale. Protection by voluntary contracts between parties is a workable model concept for European forestry based on private forest ownership. In small private forests, patches of forest worth protecting are often small and located within production forests.Forest certification can contribute to the efforts of maintaining biodiversity in multifunctional production forests and offers an instrument of independently monitoring and verifying that forests are managed according to the agreed criteria. Forest certification is not an alternative or a means of increasing forest protection, because as a voluntary process it cannot guarantee the permanence of protected areas or deal with issues of finance and compensation.     

Contribution of winter to the annual CH4 emission from a eutrophied boreal lake

The springtime methane (CH4) emission from a small, eutrophied boreal lake was assessed during the winter ice-cover by measurement of gas ebullition and CH4 accumulation in the water column in association with the development of oxygen depletion after ice formation. The winter CH4 production was estimated to result in a loss of 3.6-7.9 g CH4 m(-2) from the lake to the atmosphere during the short period of ice melt. This could account for 22-48% of the annual CH4 emission from the pelagic zone of the lake. The contribution of winter to the annual CH4 release can be similar or even higher in seasonally ice-covered northern aquatic ecosystems than in northern terrestrial wetlands, thus winter must be considered in any studies into the aquatic CH4 emissions. The trophic state and wintertime oxygen conditions, linked to the changes in land-use in the catchments and climate, are important factors controlling the springtime lake CH4 emissions.     

Mainstreaming climate policy: the role of media coverage in Finland

Integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures into other policies is considered to be a precondition for effective climate policies. This paper explores the role of mass media coverage as a potential obstacle or enhancing factor in relation to this mainstreaming of climate policies. The paper presents a quantitative content analysis of the national-level press coverage of climate change from 1990 to 2010, focusing on Finland. The empirical results indicate four major phases of Finnish media coverage of climate change: a definition phase before the Kyoto meeting in 1997, a maturation phase after the Kyoto meeting, climate hype in 2006–2008, and a phase of levelling off that started in late 2008. The results suggest that climate issues have widely permeated various fields of newspaper coverage. This broad-based debate may create and sustain a public agenda potentially favourable to attempts to bring climate policies into the mainstream of other policy domains. However, it also may open doors for unexpected initiatives by various activists and lobbyists that employ climate concern as a tool to advance other interests. The role of mass media has received little attention in studies focusing on the mainstreaming of climate policies. This paper highlights the importance of taking media coverage into account as a key factor in the formulation and implementation of environmental policies aimed at broad-based actions.