Economic aspects of global change impacts and response strategies in the coastal zone of The Netherlands

Economic aspects of possible land use strategies and protection measures in coastal zones as a response to global environmental change are examined. First, some key elements are mentioned that are of critical importance for water and land management in coastal zones. Next, various socio-economic repercussions are discussed. In this context, research needs will be addressed. Subsequently, these issues are considered for the case of The Netherlands. It is concluded that integrated modelling and analysis is just starting and needs to receive more attention in order to study long run economic costs, benefits and changes in coastal zones.     

Dependence of home outdoor particulate mass and number concentrations on residential and traffic features in urban areas

The associations between residential outdoor and ambient particle mass, fine particle absorbance, particle number (PN) concentrations, and residential and traffic determinants were investigated in four European urban areas (Helsinki, Athens, Amsterdam, and Birmingham). A total of 152 nonsmoking participants with respiratory diseases, not exposed to occupational pollution, were included in the study, which comprised a 7-day intensive exposure monitoring period of both indoor and home outdoor particle mass and number concentrations. The same pollutants were also continuously measured at ambient fixed sites centrally located to the studied areas (fixed ambient sites). Relationships between concentrations measured directly outside the homes (residential outdoor) and at the fixed ambient sites were pollutant-specific, with substantial variations among the urban areas. Differences were more pronounced for coarse particles due to resuspension of road dust and PN, which is strongly related to traffic emissions. Less significant outdoor-to-fixed variation for particle mass was observed for Amsterdam and Birmingham, predominantly due to regional secondary aerosol. On the contrary, a strong spatial variation was observed for Athens and to a lesser extent for Helsinki. This was attributed to the overwhelming and time-varied inputs from traffic and other local sources. The location of the residence and traffic volume and distance to street and traffic light were important determinants of residential outdoor particle concentrations. On average, particle mass levels in suburban areas were less than 30% of those measured for residences located in the city center. Residences located less than 10 m from a street experienced 133% higher PN concentrations than residences located further away. Overall, the findings of this multi-city study, indicated that (1) spatial variation was larger for PN than for fine particulate matter (PM) mass and varied between the cities, (2) vehicular emissions in the residential street and location in the center of the city were significant predictors of spatial variation, and (3) the impact of traffic and location in the city was much larger for PN than for fine particle mass.     

Uncertainty from Model Calibration: Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. Here, an automated model calibration procedure was developed and tested for transport sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model describes energy use on the basis of activity levels, structural change and autonomous and price-induced energy efficiency improvements. We found that the model could reasonably reproduce historic data under different sets of parameter values, leading to different projections of future energy demand levels. Projected energy use for 2030 shows a range of 44–95% around the best-fit projection. Two different model interpretations of the past can generally be distinguished: (1) high useful energy intensity and major energy efficiency improvements or (2) low useful energy intensity and little efficiency improvement. Generally, the first lead to higher future energy demand levels than the second, but model and insights do not provide decisive arguments to attribute a higher likelihood to one of the alternatives.     

Closure of Disputes in Assessments of Climate Change in The Netherlands

2 greenhouse gases in assessment studies. For the cases studied, we identify variability in the assessment reports in the Netherlands during the pre-IPCC period. In the Netherlands arena, the assessments in this period can be seen as exponents of two different lines, a Netherlands line and an international line. We seek to identify what factors were decisive in the selection processes that resulted in the closure of visible disputes (visible in or across the assessment reports) for both cases. Our analysis reveals a remarkable difference in the adoption behavior of two Dutch assessment groups despite a large overlap in membership. We provide evidence that it is not the paradigmatic predisposition of the experts in the committee that was decisive for the closure of visible disputes, but it was the context in which the experts operated and the commitments they had made in each setting.     

Relationship between different size classes of particulate matter and meteorology in three European cities

Evidence on the correlation between particle mass and (ultrafine) particle number concentrations is limited. Winter- and spring-time measurements of urban background air pollution were performed in Amsterdam (The Netherlands), Erfurt (Germany) and Helsinki (Finland), within the framework of the EU funded ULTRA study. Daily average concentrations of ambient particulate matter with a 50% cut off of 2.5 microm (PM2.5), total particle number concentrations and particle number concentrations in different size classes were collected at fixed monitoring sites. The aim of this paper is to assess differences in particle concentrations in several size classes across cities, the correlation between different particle fractions and to assess the differential impact of meteorological factors on their concentrations. The medians of ultrafine particle number concentrations were similar across the three cities (range 15.1 x 10(3)-18.3 x 10(3) counts cm(-3)). Within the ultrafine particle fraction, the sub fraction (10-30 nm) made a higher contribution to particle number concentrations in Erfurt than in Helsinki and Amsterdam. Larger differences across the cities were found for PM2.5(range 11-17 microg m(-3)). PM2.5 and ultrafine particle concentrations were weakly (Amsterdam, Helsinki) to moderately (Erfurt) correlated. The inconsistent correlation for PM2.5 and ultrafine particle concentrations between the three cities was partly explained by the larger impact of more local sources from the city on ultrafine particle concentrations than on PM2.5, suggesting that the upwind or downwind location of the measuring site in regard to potential particle sources has to be considered. Also, relationship with wind direction and meteorological data differed, suggesting that particle number and particle mass are two separate indicators of airborne particulate matter. Both decreased with increasing wind speed, but ultrafine particle number counts consistently decreased with increasing relative humidity, whereas PM2.5 increased with increasing barometric pressure. Within the ultrafine particle mode, nucleation mode (10-30 nm) and Aitken mode (30-100 nm) had distinctly different relationships with accumulation mode particles and weather conditions. Since the composition of these particle fractions also differs, it is of interest to test in future epidemiological studies whether they have different health effects.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

From leaders to majority: a frontrunner paradox in built-environment climate governance experimentation

This paper seeks to better understand the possible paradox of frontrunners in experimental climate governance. This paradox refers to the situation where frontrunners are required to push boundaries in terms of developing governance innovations and to experiment with these, but where, at the same time, a too strong focus on frontrunners may result in a situation where lessons from these experiments and the innovations developed do not resonate with the majority. In such a situation, an innovation may not be capable of being scaled up or of being transferred to another context. This paper draws lessons from a series of nine experimental and innovative governance instruments for low-carbon building development and transformation in Australia. It points out that for these instruments the frontrunners paradox provides a partial explanation as to why they have not yet been able to scale up from a small group of industry leaders to the large majority.     

The tenth dragon: controlled seasonal flooding in long-term policy plans for the Vietnamese Mekong delta

Recently the Vietnamese government has endorsed a long-term policy plan in which it is proposed to restore controlled seasonal flooding in the upper regions of the Vietnamese part of the Mekong delta. Restoring controlled flooding would contrast a period of several decades characterized by a dominant flood prevention approach to enable intensive rice production in the delta. This article investigates a series of long-term policy plans, which have been developed for the Mekong delta since the 1960s, on their take on flood control sensu flood prevention, or the opposite, controlled seasonal flooding. By doing so it is demonstrated how perspectives on flood management have gradually evolved and, in the specific case of suggesting controlled flooding, have been framed in various ways by various actors. Contemporary proposals for controlled seasonal flooding are supported by actors ranging from governmental institutes to environmental NGOs, and connect to on-going debates about environmental challenges and sustainable development of the Mekong delta. We adopt a systems approach to analyze social, environmental and technological dynamics in the Mekong delta, and discuss whether the different interpretations of controlled flooding may contribute to the long-term sustainability of the delta.