Net Carbon Exchange Across the Arctic Tundra-Boreal Forest Transition in Alaska 1981–2000

Shifts in the carbon balance of high-latitude ecosystems could result from differential responses of vegetation and soil processes to changing moisture and temperature regimes and to a lengthening of the growing season. Although shrub expansion and northward movement of treeline should increase carbon inputs, the effects of these vegetation changes on net carbon exchange have not been evaluated. We selected low shrub, tall shrub, and forest tundra sites near treeline in northwestern Alaska, representing the major structural transitions expected in response to warming. In these sites, we measured aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and vegetation and soil carbon and nitrogen pools, and used these data to parameterize the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model. We simulated the response of carbon balance components to air temperature and precipitation trends during 1981–2000. In areas experiencing warmer and dryer conditions, Net Primary Production (NPP) decreased and heterotrophic respiration (R _H ) increased, leading to a decrease in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In warmer and wetter conditions NPP increased, but the response was exceeded by an increase in R _H ; therefore, NEP also decreased. Lastly, in colder and wetter regions, the increase in NPP exceeded a small decline in R _H , leading to an increase in NEP. The net effect for the region was a slight gain in ecosystem carbon storage over the 20 year period. This research highlights the potential importance of spatial variability in ecosystem responses to climate change in assessing the response of carbon storage in northern Alaska over the last two decades.     

USE AND MISUSE OF COMPLEX MODELS: EXAMPLES FROM WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The power of computers has increased in recent decades, and one might expect improved management to result because decisions can be made with understanding available only via models. However, there is potential for quite the opposite: poor decisions due to unrealistic model output generated by users without access to appropriate training in the use of models. We discuss and, by reference to water demand models (IWR-MAIN, MWD-MAIN), illustrate three areas in which unintended errors of judgment by untrained personnel may cause difficulty:

• * Attributes of management models; if output from any type of model has no measure of confidence, then results may be over- or undervalued
• * Input data; with complex models, problems here typically will be difficult to detect.
• * Calibration and history-matching (verification); if these steps or data are combined, then users should be less trustful of model output than otherwise.

Because all models have weaknesses and because there always is uncertainty about output from any model, we end with suggestions for coping with complex models. Monitoring programs play a central role in such efforts because they can identify discrepancies between model predictions and actual events and because they can ensure time is available to develop solutions for problems unanticipated in the modeling effort.     

Getting stakeholder participation ‘right’: a discussion of participatory processes and possible pitfalls

The planning step of an ecological risk assessment includes the largest role for public participation in the entire assessment, for it is here that the risk manager must ensure that the assessment will yield the information he needs to make a decision. This essay discusses some general characteristics of public participation in ecological risk assessments, including the ways in which different lifestyles may lead to the establishment of community specific management goals and hence of different endpoints; the type and nature of the input provided by the public to the risk assessment and the ways in which input from the public differs from input from the scientific community; and a discussion of definitions of stakeholders and participatory processes which emphasizes their contextual nature. The essay concludes with a review of some of the challenges facing a risk manager as he designs a participatory process. Six major areas are discussed, each incorporating suggestions that should reduce difficulties in implementation of such a process and increase the likelihood of acceptance of its outcome, and hence the overall quality of the risk assessment.     

Population frequencies of alternative male phenotypes in tree lizards: geographic variation and common-garden rearing studies

Tree lizards (Urosaurus ornatus) vary in throat fan (dewlap) color. Earlier, we described five dewlap types (Orange, Orange-Blue, Yellow, Yellow-Blue, and Blue), and reported that only males had blue in the dewlap and that presence or absence of a discrete blue patch was correlated with male alternative reproductive phenotypes in a central Arizona population. Here, with a modified scheme characterizing two dewlap elements, background color (orange, yellow, blue) and blue patch occurrence, we assessed: (1) sexual, annual, and geographic variation in the frequencies of dewlap elements; (2) simple habitat correlates; and (3) the effects of laboratory rearing regime on dewlap type. Within a population, frequencies of males and females expressing orange or yellow backgrounds did not differ, suggesting that control of background is similar in the sexes. Within several populations, frequencies of the dewlap elements did not differ across years (and probably generations), indicating that phenotype frequencies are relatively stable. Among five populations frequencies of background colors varied, as did frequencies of male types (blue patch present or absent). Dewlap frequencies did not correlate with habitat (boulders or mesquite trees), although few populations were sampled. In male and female offspring reared from eggs to sexual maturity in a common-garden laboratory study, background color frequencies in both sexes and blue patch frequencies in males differed among offspring from different populations. Offspring frequencies matched respective parental population frequencies. Results suggest that among-population variation in frequencies of the two dewlap elements are mediated by differences in genetics, in maternal effects, or both. Thus, differences in male behavior functionally linked to the blue patch also may be controlled by genetic or maternal effects. Received: 17 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 30 August 1997     

Spoil disposal

Summary The colliery spoil problem in existing mining areas requires the same attention as that in the new coalfields. The Yorkshire coalfield has particular problems since so much land near collieries has already been tipped on. Suggested short-term and long-term solutions are outlined. Some will be successful, others may not.The Commission on Energy and the Environment has made many recommendations to improve the existing situation in the coalfields. How many of these will the Government support? The National Coal Board promised a high standard of environmental treatment at the Belvoir public inquiry. Will these high standards be reflected in developments on the existing coalfields?Effective day-to-day management can have beneficial results out of all proportion to expenditure. All collieries should match up to the high standards achieved at the better ones. Is there any reason why lagoons should be features of colliery spoil disposal for the next decade? Can colliery spoil be used more extensively as an alternative material in construction? The National Coal Board and the local authorities need a strategic plan for coal development including spoil disposal and in detail need an agreed plan for short-term spoil disposal at each colliery.Commitment and research is needed to look into methods of backstowage — which tackles the problem at source. Can other European experience help in this matter? Fluidised-bed technology may lead to a reduction in spoil. Maximum use will have to be made of local tipping opportunities, whether quarry, voids, opencast coal sites, new land forms or upgrading agricultural land — but they won't happen on their own. Effort and determination will be needed. Long-distance movement of spoil appears expensive. It cannot be financed under the NCB's present system of accounting and certainly not financed by local authorities. Costs may need to be met nationally. The financing of major spoil solutions may well be the major problem in making and progress in any direction — but a national resource such as coal should be developed through a national approach to overall costs.     

Statistical hypothesis testing formulations for U.S. environmental regulatory standards for ozone

Environmental regulatory standards are intended to protect human health and environmental welfare. Current standards are based on scientific and policy considerations but appear to lack rigorous statistical foundations and may have unintended regulatory consequences. We examine current and proposed U.S. environmental regulatory standards for ozone from the standpoint of their formulation and performance within a statistical hypothesis testing framework. We illustrate that the standards can be regarded as representing constraints on a percentile of the ozone distribution, where the percentile involved depends on the defined length of ozone season and the constraint is stricter in regions with greater variability. A hypothesis testing framework allows consideration of error rates (probability of false declaration of violation and compliance) and we show that the existing statistics on which the standards are based can be improved upon in terms of bias and variance. Our analyses also raise issues relating to network design and the possibilities of defining a regionally based standard that acknowledges and accounts for spatial and temporal variability in the ozone distribution.     

Food availability,intrusion pressure and territory size: an experimental study of Anna's hummingbirds (Calypte anna)

Theoretical considerations implicate food availability and intrusion pressure as important determinants of territory size, but empirical studies have led to contradictory conclusions about cause-and-effect relationships among these three variables. To investigate this problem, we provided patches of electronically controlled artificial flowers, which were defended by male Calypte anna. Food availability was experimentally manipulated, and intrusion rate and territory size were calculated from behavioral observations of the territory owner. Changes in both food availability and intrusion rate were found to be significantly correlated with changes in territory size under certain conditions. Intrusion rate, which was influenced by food availability, was negatively associated with territory size so long as food availability was high. This association persisted even after possible effects of food availability were controlled statistically. Food availability was negatively correlated with territory size only when intrusion rates were high and after owners had been defending territories for 3 days. As food availability and intrusion rate increased, owners increasingly restricted their defense to the patch itself; partial regressions revealed a significant association for intrusion rate but not food availability. When intrusion rate was low and food availability varied from low to high levels, no relationship was observed between food availability and territory size, apparently because of opposing influences of food abundance on territory size. Correspondence to: P.W. Ewald     

Amniotic band syndrome causing fetal head deformity

Amniotic band syndrome is a rare cause of fetal head deformity. We report a case in which antenatal ultrasound in the first half of pregnancy indicated the presence of a fetal cranial deformity, reported as either anencephaly or encephalocele. At assessment autopsy, disruption of the fetal skull was associated with amniotic band formation. Appropriate genetic counselling can be offered to such patients only when detailed pathological examination of the aborted fetus is made. The recurrence rate of amniotic band syndrome does not warrant amniocentesis in a subsequent pregnancy.     

Polycyclic musk compounds in higher trophic level aquatic organisms and humans from the United States

Polycyclic musks, 1,3,4,6,7,8-hexahydro-4,6,6,7,8,8-hexamethylcyclopenta[g]-2-benzopyran (HHCB) and 7-acetyl-1,1,3,4,4,6-hexamethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydronaphthalene (AHTN), are used as fragrance ingredients in numerous consumer products such as cleaning agents and personal care products. Studies have reported the widespread occurrence of these musks in surface waters and fish from western European countries. Nevertheless, little is known about their accumulation in humans and wildlife in the United States. In this study, we measured concentrations of HHCB and AHTN in human adipose fat collected from New York City. Furthermore, tissues from marine mammals, water birds, and fish collected from US waters were analyzed to determine the concentrations of HHCB and AHTN. Concentrations of HHCB and AHTN in human adipose fat samples ranged from 12 to 798 and from <5 to 134 ng/g, on a lipid weight basis, respectively. A significant correlation existed between the concentrations of HHCB and AHTN in human adipose fat. Concentrations of HHCB and AHTN were not positively correlated with age or gender of the donors. HHCB was found in tissues of several wildlife species, but not in the livers of polar bear from the Alaskan Arctic. Among wildlife species analyzed, spinner and bottlenose dolphins collected from Florida coastal waters contained measurable concentrations of HHCB.     

Adsorption and precipitation of tetracycline with struvite.

The interaction of tetracycline with struvite during adsorption and precipitation processes was investigated. Tetracycline removal by adsorption was affected by solution pH, contact time, and struvite concentration. The lowest tetracycline removal (8.4%) was observed at pH 7.7, the dissociation constant (pKa2) of tetracycline. Because of the electrostatic repulsion, the amount of tetracycline adsorbed on the surface was low. The small amount of adsorption was the result of surface complexation between tetracycline ions and metal ions. Calcium (Ca2+) ions in the adsorbent enhanced the binding of tetracycline. Freundlich (KF: 0.04, n: 1.49) and Redlich-Peterson (KR: 0.08, alphaR: 0.98, betaR: 0.49) models best defined the equilibrium data. In the case of struvite precipitation, approximately 22% of tetracycline was removed as a result of binding to struvite alongside struvite formation.