Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Assessment of atmospheric metallic pollution in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil, employing Tillandsia usneoides L. as biomonitor

Tillandsia usneoides L. is an epiphytic bromeliad plant able to absorb water and nutrients directly from the air. For this reason this species was selected to carry out a monitoring study of air pollution in the metropolitan region of S?o Paulo, Brazil. Five consecutive transplantation experiments (8 weeks each) were performed in 10 sites of the city, submitted to different sources of air pollution (industrial, vehicular), using plants collected from an unpolluted area. After exposure, trace metals were analyzed in the plant by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Traffic-related elements such as Zn and Ba presented high concentrations in exposure sites near to heavy traffic avenues (cars, buses and trucks) and may be associated to vehicular sources. For Zn and Co the highest contents were related to industrial zones and can be associated to the presence of anthropogenic emission sources. The rare earth elements, Fe and Rb, probably have soil particles as main source.     

Preliminary assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Scottish aquatic environment, including the Firth of Clyde

This paper presents preliminary data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Scottish aquatic environment. Sediment and biota (fish liver, fish muscle and mussels) from a number of locations around Scotland were analysed for PBDEs with samples being from both remote and from potentially contaminated areas such as the former sewage sludge dump site at Garroch Head in the Clyde. PBDEs were measured in both cultivated, rope grown mussels and wild mussels collected from 5 sites around Scotland in 2006. Total PBDE concentrations (sum of tri- to hepta-BDEs) ranged from 相似文献   

Effect of nitrogen fertilizer application on growing season soil carbon dioxide emission in a corn-soybean rotation

Nitrogen application can have a significant effect on soil carbon (C) pools, plant biomass production, and microbial biomass C processing. The focus of this study was to investigate the short-term effect of N fertilization on soil CO(2) emission and microbial biomass C. The study was conducted from 2001 to 2003 at four field sites in Iowa representing major soil associations and with a corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max L. Merr.) rotation. The experimental design was a randomized complete block with four replications of four N rates (0, 90, 180, and 225 kg ha(-1)). In the corn year, season-long cumulative soil CO(2) emission was greatest with the zero N application. There was no effect of N applied in the prior year on CO(2) emission in the soybean year, except at one of three sites, where greater applied N decreased CO(2) emission. Soil microbial biomass C (MBC) and net mineralization in soil collected during the corn year was not significantly increased with increase in N rate in two out of three sites. At all sites, soil CO(2) emission from aerobically incubated soil showed a more consistent declining trend with increase in N rate than found in the field. Nitrogen fertilization of corn reduced the soil CO(2) emission rate and seasonal cumulative loss in two out of three sites, and increased MBC at only one site with the highest N rate. Nitrogen application resulted in a reduction of both emission rate and season-long cumulative emission of CO(2)-C from soil.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

Investigations of ash fouling with cattle wastes as reburn fuel in a small-scale boiler burner under transient conditions

Fouling behavior under reburn conditions was investigated with cattle wastes (termed as feedlot biomass [FB]) and coal as reburn fuels under a transient condition and short-time operation. A small-scale (30 kW or 100,000 Btu/hr) boiler burner research facility was used for the reburn experiments. The fuels considered for these experiments were natural gas (NG) for the ashless case, pure coal, pure FB, and blends of coal and FB. Two parameters that were used to characterize the ash "fouling" were (1) the overall heat-transfer coefficient (OHTC) when burning NG and solid fuels as reburn fuels, and (2) the combustible loss through ash deposited on the surfaces of heat exchanger tubes and the bottom ash in the ash port. A new methodology is presented for determining ash-fouling behavior under transient conditions. Results on the OHTCs for solid reburn fuels are compared with the OHTCs for NG. It was found that the growth of the layer of ash depositions over longer periods typically lowers OHTC, and the increased concentration of ash in gas phase promotes radiation in high-temperature zones during initial periods while decreasing the heat transfer in low-temperature zones. The ash analyses indicated that the bottom ash in the ash port contained a smaller percentage of combustibles with a higher FB percentage in the fuels, indicating better performance compared with coal because small particles in FB burn faster and the FB has higher volatile matter on a dry ash-free basis promoting more burn out.     

A synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assay as an improved tool to detect thyroid hormone disturbance by endocrine disruptors and apolar sediment extracts

Amphibian metamorphosis assays are used to evaluate potential effects of endocrine disrupting compounds on the thyroid hormone axis. In this study, Xenopus laevis tadpoles are kept in a solution of 0.2% thiourea (TU) to arrest and synchronise them in their development. The advantage of this synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assays is that synchronised tadpoles are available at any time to start metamorphosis experiments, and experimental groups are much more homogenous at the start of experimental exposure compared with groups selected from an untreated pool of animals. The water volume per animal was kept constant throughout the experimental period to overcome the influence of declining numbers of animals per aquarium due to metamorphosis and mortality on the density dependent development of the remaining tadpoles. Clophen A50 (a technical PCB mixture), the single congener 3,3',4,4'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 77) and apolar sediment extracts that were previously tested positive in the T-Screen, an in vitro proliferation assay for thyroid hormone disruption, were tested in the Synchronized Amphibian Metamorphosis Assay. Endpoints studied were mortality, malformations, body weight, and percentage of metamorphosed froglets at the end of the 60-day experimental period, percentage of tadpoles in different developmental stages, and developmental stage-dependent awarded penalty points. Dietary exposure to Clophen A50 (0.2-50mg/kg food) resulted in a significant increased percentage of tadpoles that did not pass metamorphosis at concentrations higher than 2mg/kg food. Time until metamorphosis in those animals that were able to metamorphose after the 60-days experimental period was significantly decreased. Dietary exposure to PCB 77, a congener that can be readily metabolised, did not result in significant effects in any exposure group (2-500 microg/kg food). Apolar sediment extracts from two of the three sites that are contaminated with a wide variety of chemicals significantly decreased the percentage of metamorphosed animals and significantly increased the number of tadpoles that remained in early and late metamorphic stages. These effects already occurred when the extracts where diluted more than 1000 times (on an organic carbon base) compared to environmental concentrations. The rank of potency was comparable to results obtained with the T-screen. This suggests the presence of thyroid hormone disrupting compounds in the aquatic environment and possible effects of such compounds on animal development in the wild.