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991.
Sheryl L. Franklin David R. Maidment 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(4):611-621
ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data. 相似文献
992.
Expansion of the distribution of exotic rainbow trout is thought to be a leading cause for the decline of native brook trout since the 1930s in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. An experimental rehabilitation project was conducted from 1976 to 1981 using backpack electrofish shockers on four remnant brook trout populations sympatric with rainbow trout. The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness of the technique to remove the exotic rainbow trout, to determine the population responses by native brook trout, and to evaluate the usefulness of the technique for trout management in the park.Rainbow trout populations were greatly reduced in density after up to six years of electrofishing, but were not eradicated. Rainbow trout recruitment, however, was essentially eliminated. Brook trout populations responded by increasing in density (including young-of-the-year), but rates of recovery differed among streams. The maximum observed densities ir each stream occurred at the end of the project.The findings suggest that electrofishing had a major negative impact on the exotic species, which was followed by positive responses from the native species in the second and third order study streams. The technique would probably be less effective in larger (fourth-order) park streams, but as an eradication tool the technique may have its highest potential in small first order streams. Nonetheless, the technique appears useful for population control without causing undue impacts on native aquatic species, although it is labor intensive, and capture efficiency is greatly influenced by fish size and stream morphology. To completely remove the exotic fish from selected streams, different technologies will have to be explored and developed. 相似文献
993.
Three hundred and three biogas plants, representing a majority of the units installed in Sri Lanka up to 1984, were inspected, and it was found that 280 of these had been put into commission at some time prior to the study. Of the 280 commissioned plants, 170 (61%) were functioning satisfactorily providing biogas for cooking and/or lighting. The remaining 110 (39%) were either not functioning or were supplying very little gas owing to gas leaks, inadequate input of dung, or poor plant management. The most common plant was the 6 m3 , fixed dome, household plant, and the most common raw material used was cattle dung. In the majority of household plants the cost of construction was partly or wholly subsidized. 相似文献
994.
Berton L. Lamb 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(5):811-815
ABSTRACT: Water resource scientists face complex tasks in evaluating aspects of water projects, but relatively few assessment procedures have been applied and accepted as standard applications. Decision-makers often rely on environmental assessments to evaluate the value and operation of projects. There is often confusion about scientists' role in policy decisions. The scientist can affect policy-making as an expert withess, an advocate or a surrogate. By understanding the policy process, scientists can make their work more “policy relevant.” Using the Terror Lake hydro project in Alaska as a guide, three lessons are discussed: (1) not all problems are able to be solved with technology; (2) policy-relevant technology is rarely imposed on a problem; and (3) the scientist need not just react to the policy process, but can have an impact on how that process unfolds. 相似文献
995.
Food habits of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were examined from January to November 1984 via fecal-pellet analysis at Valley Forge National Historical Park (VFNHP), which represents an island habitat for deer surrounded by extensive urbanization, in southeastern Pennsylvania. In addition, use of fields by deer was compared to food habits. Herbaceous vegetation (forbs, leaves of woody plants, and conifer needles) was the predominant food type in all seasons except fall. Acorns and graminoids (grasses and sedges) were important food resources in fall and spring, respectively. Use of woody browse (twigs) was similar among seasons. Field use was relatively high during fall, winter without snow cover (<20 cm), and spring when food resources in fields were readily available. In contrast, use of fields was lowest in summer when preferred woodland foods were available and in winter with snow cover when food in fields was not readily accessible. Patterns of food-type use by deer at VFNHP indicate the year-round importance of nonwoody foods and field habitats to deer populations on public lands such as national parks in the northeastern United States. 相似文献
996.
997.
Opencast coalmining has been undertaken in Britain since 1942, but national policy towards its role in the energy market has fluctuated, and today there is a growing awareness of its detrimental impact on the environment. This paper explores the changing policy background since 1974 and, through an examination of recent planning appeal decisions, assesses the weight placed on the competing factors underlying the present formulation of government policy. It is submitted that at present government has failed to formulate a coherent policy in terms of land‐use and that the cost of this failure is a continued erosion of the environment. 相似文献
998.
999.
1000.
R. L. Shogren 《Journal of Polymers and the Environment》1995,3(2):75-80
Granular cornstarch was coated with several biodegradable polymers in an effort to improve the mechanical properties of starch-poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) composites. Only samples containing poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO)-coated granular starch showed a large improvement in tensile properties over uncoated starch. For example, a 50/50 blend of PEO-coated starch and PHBV had a tensile strength of 19 MPa and an ultimate elongation of 23%, compared to 10 MPa and 11% for a similar blend containing uncoated starch. PEO may act as an adhesive between the starch and the PHBV and/or increase the toughness and resistance to crack growth of PHBV around the starch granules.Paper presented at the Bio/Environmentally Degradable Polymer Society—Third National Meeting, June 6–8, 1994, Boston, Massachusetts.Names are necessary to report factually on available data; however, the USDA neither guarantees nor warrants the standard of the product and the use of the name by the USDA implies no approval of the product to the exclusion of others that may also be suitable. 相似文献