WORLD PETROLEUM RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND PRODUCTION FORECASTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT POLICY

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines. Des prévisions de ressources à elles seules ne constituent pas des signes précurseurs de difficultés croissantes de production. Une analyse des étapes générales marquant l'evolution de la découverte et de la production du pétrole ainsi que des statistiques industrielles nous permet de prévoir l'époque à laquelle prendra fin la phase de production accrue dans les pays à économie de marché en dehors des Etats-Unis et du Canada. Cette analyse révèle que l'année de production maximale se situera dans les années 90. La croissance économique accentue les difficultés qui accompagnent le déclin de la production de pétrole en avancant la date à laquelle cell-ci atteindra son plafond et en augmentant le nombre d'ajustements qui s'avèrent nécessaires au fur et à mesure qu'elle baisse. Las evaluaciones de recursos no dan por si solas un aviso anticipado de las dificultades de producción. Un análisis de las etapas principales en la evolución del descubrimiento y producción de petróleo y de las estadísticas industriales provee un estimado de cuando va a terminar la etapa caracterizada por un crecimiento de producción en los paises de economias de mercado otros que Estados Unidos y Canada. El análisis indica que el año de producción máxima se hallará en la década del 90. El crecimiento económico agrava las dificultades debidas a la declinación de la producción al adelantar la fecha de máxima producción (pico) y al aumentar los ajustes que deven hacerse cuando la producción de petróleos disminuye.     

Evidence for biodegradation and volatilisation of dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons during in situ air sparging in large laboratory columns

Laboratory column experiments run for up to 13 days compared air sparging of groundwater contaminated by dissolved petroleum hydrocarbons in sterile and non-sterile aquifer sediments as well as uncontaminated sediments and groundwater. Loss of dissolved BTEX compounds in the contaminated columns was very rapid, occurring through volatilisation. The majority of the dissolved total organic carbon (TOC) persisted for much longer periods however. A direct comparison between losses from sterile and non-sterile columns suggested a negligible contribution of biodegradation to the removal of TOC. This was difficult to confirm through examination of O₂ utilisation because oxidation of a small amount of reduced sulphur in the aquifer materials was the dominant sink for O₂. Despite this, it was possible to conclude that less than 22% of the removal of TOC was through biodegradation during the first three days of air sparging.     

A New Modus Operandi for the Agricultural Economics Profession

Agricultural economics has, until the 1990s, enjoyeda reputation for relevance and usefulness to theagri-food industry and policy-makers. Thatreputation has been jeopardized by a growinginfatuation with models and quantification, and aconcomitant underemphasis placed on many complexproblems and issues of society. An illustrativeexample is explored, using agriculturalactivity-related damage to the natural resourcebase, environment and ecology. Agriculturaleconomists are urged to respond by broadening theirterms of reference and joining forces with otherdisciplines.     

Integration of Environmental Assessment into the Regional Development Planning Process of the Galilee

/ The Galilee region on the northern edge of Israel constitutes more than 15% of the state's territory, supplies more than half of its drinking water needs, and is an important recreational resource and destination for Israelis. One of the main objectives of the plan for the Galilee was to devise a regional physical and economic development strategy for the years 1992-2007 that would arrest the trend of emigration of its residents, attract newly arrived immigrants to the region, and at the same time protect natural resources and environmental quality. This paper is limited to discussion of the environmental aspects of the plan. It analyzes spatial concepts for distribution of projected population growth, evaluates environmental impacts of alternative plans, and proposes a decision-making framework and tools for minimizing natural resources loss from development at the local level. Assessment of potential environmental impacts generated quantitative data of natural resources areas. Application of the data in the plan evaluation stage showed that the alternative that concentrated most of the new development in central Galilee was the second-best choice environmentally, but was preferred as the best choice for overall qualities. The planning study offers an alternative environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to the one presently used in Israel by incorporating environmental considerations at the initial plan-making stage and not at the plan-approval stage. It demonstrated that in order to be effective, environmental assessment and land-use planning should be seen as one effort that is integrated from the start and in each stage of the plan-making process.KEY WORDS: Environmental assessment; Development planning; Galilee     

Review of information on pesticide residues in the Canadian environment

Summary Pesticide residues in soil, water, food, wildlife and other media have been analysed in several monitoring studies. The purpose was to establish the distribution of these residues across a defined area, ascertain their trend over a specific period and use the results to assess environmental compliance and safety. In the present review the availability of information on pesticide residues in various Canadian environmental components was sought. With the possible exception of localized pesticide contamination of some private water supply wells, ground and surface water, most analyses revealed concentrations below guideline limits. Only a few cases were reported of mishandling, misuse and poisoning from pesticides. Continuing surveillance programmes and in-depth and well-organized monitoring studies, with special focus on areas that are vulnerable to contamination, by both provincial and federal governments, are largely responsible for the encouraging results. This experience in the control of pesticide use and monitoring of residues in the environment should be of particular interest in developing countries.Dr A.Y. Sangodoyin is a senior lecturer in the Department of Agricultural Engineering at the University of Ibadan. He was recently involved in a study visit to the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2G7, where his co-author Dr D.W. Smith is a member of staff in the Department of Civil-Engineering.     

HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.