Precursor-based hierarchical Bayesian approach for rare event frequency estimation: A case of oil spill accidents

Due to a scarcity of data, the estimate of the frequency of a rare event is a consistently challenging problem in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). However, the use of precursor data has been shown to help in obtaining more accurate estimates. Moreover, the use of hyper-priors to represent prior parameters in the hierarchical Bayesian approach (HBA) generates more consistent results in comparison to the conventional Bayesian method. This study proposes a framework that uses a precursor-based HBA for rare event frequency estimation. The proposed method is demonstrated using the recent BP Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico. The conventional Bayesian method is also applied to the same case study. The results show that the proposed approach is more effective with regards to the following perspectives: (a) using the HBA in the proposed framework provides an opportunity to take full advantage of the sparse data available and add information from indirect but relevant data; (b) the HBA is more sensitive to changes in precursor data than the conventional Bayesian method; and (c) using hyper-priors to represent prior parameters, the HBA is able to model the variability that can exist among different sources of data.     

Mobilisation and protest: environmental justice in Durban,South Africa

This paper examines the ability of civil society actors to champion environmental justice in an industrial risk society in South Africa by way of mobilisation and protest action. This paper presents viewpoints from key stakeholders at the Durban city level and three local case study sites to examine social capital relations to achieve environmental justice. It explores how civil society engages in social capital for mobilisation with itself and subsequent protest actions to engage with government and industry. The paper highlights that social actor response to engage in social capital for mobilisation and protests is best understood in relation to the socio-economic and political positioning of individuals or organisations.     

Does juvenile helping enhance breeder reproductive success?

Summary Helping-at-the-nest has been studied in a number of avian species. In many cases helping appears to enhance the reproductive success of the breeders. Because assistance is often provided to kin, this help also indirectly affects the success of the helper. In our study we examined the ways in which juvenile moorhens (Gallinula chloropus) assist their parents. We also conducted a removal experiment to determine whether the help provided increases reproductive success independently of parental and territory quality. Juvenile moorhens assist their parents by feeding younger sibs and by territory and predator defense. However, the results of our removal experiment suggest that this help has little effect on reproductive success (Table 2). Thus the helping effect originally reported in this population may be confounded by parental and territory quality.     

Feeling interrupted—Being responsive: How online messages relate to affect at work

Being constantly connected to others via e‐mail and other online messages is increasingly typical for many employees. In this paper, we develop and test a model that specifies how interruptions by online messages relate to negative and positive affect. We hypothesize that perceived interruptions by online messages predict state negative affect via time pressure and that perceived interruptions predict state positive affect via responsiveness to these online messages and perceived task accomplishment. A daily survey study with 174 employees (a total of 811 day‐level observations) provided support for our hypotheses at the between‐person and within‐person level. In addition, perceived interruptions showed a negative direct association with perceived task accomplishment. Our study highlights the importance of being responsive to online messages and shows that addressing only the negative effects of perceived interruptions does not suffice to understand the full impact of interruptions by online messages in modern jobs.     

Investigating the role of smartness for sustainability: insights from the Smart Grid domain

Over the past decades, information and communication technologies (ICT) established themselves as the key force towards more effective and efficient usage of resources in our society, namely via better use of available information, automation, stakeholder involvement, and decision support. By analyzing recent advancements in knowledge offered by ICT, it is possible to identify their strong correlation with the principles, aims, and interests of sustainability science, which can be highly inspired by ICT-intensive domains. In this paper, we study the theoretical background on system thinking as an interpretative lens able to support better understanding of dimensions and dynamics involved in the domain of sustainability, and examine the role of ICT in advancing sustainability goals. Then, we analyze the domain of the Smart Grid as a prominent example of complex technological contribution in face of the challenges of sustainability, and present the insights from this domain, which are turned into sustainability guidelines for other domains, linking smartness, and sustainability in the light of systems thinking and Smart Grid experience. In summary, the core recommendation of this work is the employment of information technology to widen the scope of the sustainability “game” by sliding activities in time and space, and in engaging more “players” in the game, which is now made possible thanks to the advancement in ICT.     

Community vulnerability to changes in the winter road viability and longevity in the western James Bay region of Ontario’s Far North

Regional Environmental Change - A network of winter roads that consists of snow-ice roads over land, muskeg, and frozen lakes and rivers has been and continues to be a critical seasonal lifeline in...     

Preliminary Studies on the Population Genetics of the Central Stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum) from the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio

Molecular approaches are particularly useful for measuring genetic diversity and were applied to samples of central stonerollers obtained from sites along tributaries to the Great Miami River in Ohio. We used Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis to assess the level of genetic diversity within and among these populations. RAPD analysis generates genetic profiles that were used to develop indices of genetic similarity. The RAPD method provides a cost effective means of generating an arbitrary sample of anonymous loci across the genome and generate a virtually unlimited set of loci for use in genetic analysis in the absence of specific sequence information. These attributes make RAPDs well suited for use in evaluating the diversity and assessing the potential vulnerability to exposure of populations across multiple spatial scales. The results demonstrate that a significant amount of structuring exists among populations analyzed to date and that a trend exists towards genetic diversity being an inverse function of site distance from the main stem as well as a being directly related to stream order. This indicates that populations farthest from main conduits or in lower order streams, and thereby most isolated, may be the most vulnerable populations to stressor exposure. It is hoped that information pertaining to genetic diversity, when integrated with other metrics of resource condition, will aid in making scientifically grounded decisions on resource management that enhance the probability of population survival and preserve natural evolutionary processes.     

Predicting Sustained Fire Spread in Tasmanian Native Grasslands

Fire is widely used in conservation management of native grasslands. Burning is often carried out under conditions that are marginal for sustained fire spread, and therefore it would be useful to be able to predict fire sustainability. There is currently no model allowing such prediction in temperate grasslands. This study aims to identify the environmental variables that determine whether fires will sustain in native grasslands in Tasmania, Australia, and develop a model for predicting fire sustainability in this vegetation. Fuel characteristics and weather conditions were recorded for 111 test fires. Logistic regression modeling identified dead fuel moisture content, fuel load, and percentage dead fuel as predictors of fire sustainability. Classification tree modeling identified dead fuel moisture and fuel load threshold values for sustaining fires. There was also evidence indicating a percentage dead fuel threshold. The logistic regression model and a model combining the results of the classification tree and the percentage dead fuel threshold accurately predicted the outcomes of a small set of experimental fires. These models are likely to have utility in predicting fire sustainability in Tasmanian grasslands and are also likely to be applicable to similar grasslands elsewhere.     

Arsenic and thallium data in environmental samples: Fact or fiction?

Matrix effects may increasingly lead to erroneous environmental decisions as regulatory limits or risk‐based concentrations of concern for trace metals move lower toward the limits of analytical detection. A U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Technical Standards Alert estimated that environmental data reported using inductively coupled plasma spectrometry (ICP‐AES) has a false‐positive rate for thallium of 99.9 percent and for arsenic of 25 to 50 percent. Although this does not seem to be widely known in the environmental community, using three case studies, this article presents data in environmental samples that demonstrate severe matrix effects on the accuracy of arsenic and thallium results. Case Study 1 involves soil results with concentrations that approached or exceeded the applicable regulatory soil cleanup objectives of 13 mg/kg for arsenic and 2 mg/kg for thallium. Reanalysis using ICP coupled with a mass spectrometer (ICP‐MS) confirmed all thallium results were false positives and all arsenic results were biased high, concluding no action was required for soil remediation. Case Study 2 involves groundwater results for thallium at a Superfund site, where thallium was detected in groundwater up to 21.6 μ g/L using ICP‐AES. Reanalysis by ICP‐MS reported thallium as nondetect below the applicable regulatory level in all samples. ICP‐MS is usually a more definitive and accurate method of analysis compared to ICP‐AES; however, this is not always the case, as we demonstrate in Case Study 3, using data from groundwater samples at an industrial site. Through a weight‐of‐evidence approach, it is demonstrated that although method quality control results were acceptable, interferences in some groundwater samples caused biased high results for arsenic using ICP‐MS, which were significantly lower when reanalyzed using hydride generation atomic fluorescence spectrometry. Causes of these interference effects and conclusions from the three case studies to obtain accurate metal data for site assessment, risk characterization, and remedy selection are discussed. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.