Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

Total versus inhalable sampler comparison study for the determination of asphalt fume exposures within the road paving industry

Exposure to asphalt fumes has a threshold limit value (TLV of 0.5 mg m(-3) (benzene extractable inhalable particulate) as recommended by the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). This reflects a recent change (2000) whereby two variables are different from the previous recommendation. First is a 10-fold reduction in quantity from 5 mg m(-3) to 0.5 mg m(-3). Secondly, the new TLV specifies the "inhalable" fraction as compared to what is presumed to be total particulate. To assess the impact of these changes, this study compares the differences between measurements of paving asphalt fume exposure in the field using an "inhalable" instrument versus the historically used 'total' sampler. Particle size is also examined to assist in the understanding of the aerodynamic collection differences as related to asphalt fumes and confounders. Results show that when exposures are limited to asphalt fumes, a 1:1 relationship exists between samplers, showing no statistically significant differences in benzene soluble matter (BSM). This means that for the asphalt fume ACGIH TLV, the 'total' 37-mm sampler is an equivalent method to the "inhalable" method, referred to as IOM (Institute of Occupational Medicine), and should be acceptable for use against the TLV. However, the study found that when confounders (dust or old asphalt millings) are present in the workplace, there can be significant differences between the two samplers' reported exposure. The ratio of IOM/Total was 1.37 for milling asphalt sites, 1.41 for asphalt paving over granular base, and 1.02 for asphalt over asphalt pavements.     

健康与快乐:作为可持续农业必要部分之一的动物福利

一个农业系统若要是可持续的,好的动物福利是必不可少的.尽管自从我们一开始驯养动物,对它们的健康和繁殖产生依赖,我们就一直在关注动物福利问题,但本文的焦点主要集中在自20世纪60年代以来围绕动物福利的争论的进展上.它将动物福利作为一门由一个社会关注的动物饲养方式问题演化而来的科学来呈现.而这些道德伦理上的关注使得动物福利的价值架构也必须被考虑在内.随着这一领域研究的不断发展,不同的动物福利的定义和研究实例被提出和讨论.比如,近几年来,消费者对动物友好产品(animal-friendly products)的消费方面的研究兴趣大增,一如过去的环境友好产品(environment friendly products);而这也刺激了研究重点从动物福利的实验研究转移至动物福利在实际中的应用和农场的动物福利监控上.传统上讲,这样的测量是基于资源的,比如计算最小饲养空间或者最大饲养密度,但现在的趋势是趋向于基于动物的测量,比如跛足动物的数量、身体状况等.     

Abundance patterns and foraging activity of ant communities in abandoned,organic and commercial apple orchards in Northern California

The abundance patterns of ant communities were monitored with pitfall traps during 14 weeks in four northern California, dry farmed, apple orchards: an abandoned orchard undisturbed for 25 years, two ‘organically’ managed orchards, one with a cover crop of bell beans (Vicia faba) and grasses and the other kept clean of cover by discing, and a ‘commercial’ clean cultivated orchard sprayed with organophosphate insecticides. Six species of ants coexisted in the abandoned orchard, whereas only two species were found in the managed orchards. In both the organic and sprayed, clean cultivated systems, ants were more abundant in the orchard edges than in the vegetation-free centers. This trend was not apparent in the abandoned or organic cover orchards, where plant diversity in the center was similar to that of the edges. Ant predation on potato tuberworm larvae, Phthorimaea operculella, artificially placed on the orchard floor, declined with the intensity of management and vegetational simplication. A higher incidence of larval removal occurred in the edges than in the centers of the clean cultivated orchards. No noticeable populations of ants were detected on the trees in any of the orchards. Increased vegetational diversity and lack of disturbance appeared to affect ant locomotory activity and foraging efficiency by creating preferred sheltering and feeding sites.     

A Simulation of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Carbon at Landscape Level: A Case Study for Lake Abitibi Model Forest in Ontario,Canada

Using a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF), this study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variability in carbon storage during 1990–2000, and to present a comprehensive estimation of the carbon budget for LAMF's ecosystems. As well, it provided the information needed by local forest managers to develop ecological and carbon-based indicators and monitor the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Temporal and spatial carbon dynamics were simulated at the landscape level using ecosystem model TRIPLEX1.0 and Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulated net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in forest biomass and soil were compared with field data and results from other studies for Canada's boreal forests. The results show that simulated NPP ranged from 3.26 to 3.34 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 1990s and was consistent with the range measured during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Studies (BOREAS) in central Canada. Modeled NPP was also compared with the estimation from remote sensing data. The density of total above-and belowground biomass was 125.3, 111.8, and 106.5 tC ha⁻¹ for black spruce, trembling aspen, and jack pine in the LAMF ecosystem, respectively. The total carbon density of forested land was estimated at 154.4 tC ha⁻¹ with the proportion of 4:6 for total biomass and soil. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest in the 1990s.