NitroGenius: a nitrogen decision support system. A game to develop the optimal policy to solve the Dutch nitrogen pollution problem

A nitrogen decision support system in the form of a game (NitroGenius) was developed for the Second International Nitrogen Conference. The aims were to: i) improve understanding among scientists and policy makers about the complexity of nitrogen pollution problems in an area of intensive agricultural, industrial, and transportation activity (The Netherlands); and ii) search for optimal policy solutions to prevent pollution effects at lowest economic and social costs. NitroGenius includes a model of nitrogen flows at relevant spatial and temporal scales including emissions of ammonia and nitrogen oxides and contamination of surface- and groundwaters. NitroGenius also includes an economic model describing relationships for important sectors and impacts of different nitrogen control measures on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment, energy use, and environmental costs. About 50 teams played NitroGenius during the Second International Nitrogen Conference. The results show that careful planning and selection of abatement options can solve Dutch nitrogen problems at reasonable cost.     

The power of simulating experiments

Addressing complex ecological research questions often requires complex empirical experiments. However, due to the logistic constraints of empirical studies there is a trade-off between the complexity of experimental designs and sample size. Here, we explore if the simulation of complex ecological experiments including stochasticity-induced variation can aid in alleviating the sample size limitation of empirical studies. One area where sample size limitations constrain empirical approaches is in studies of the above- and belowground controls of trophic structure. Based on a rule- and individual-based simulation model on the effect of above- and belowground herbivores and their enemies on plant biomass, we evaluate the reliability of biomass estimates, the probability of experimental failure in terms of missing values, and the statistical power of biomass comparisons for a range of sample sizes. As expected, we observed superior performance of setups with sample sizes typical of simulations (n = 1000) as compared to empirical experiments (n = 10). At low sample sizes, simulated standard errors were smaller than expected from statistical theory, indicating that stochastic simulation models may be required in those cases where it is not possible to perform pilot studies for determining sample sizes. To avoid experimental failure, a sample size of n = 30 was required. In conclusion, we propose that the standard tool box of any ecologist should comprise a combination of simulation and empirical approaches to benefit from the realism of empirical experiments as well as the statistical power of simulations.     

Perinatal dioxin exposure, cytochrome P-450 activity, liver functions and thyroid hormones at follow-up after 7-12 years

OBJECTIVES: Prenatal and lactational exposure to Dutch "background" dioxin levels may cause health effects spanning many years. In addition, perinatal studies have shown a relationship between dioxin exposure and thyroid disturbance. To assess the later health effects of prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure on liver function we measured plasma ALAT and ASAT levels amongst our longitudinal cohort, as was done perinatally and at 2(1/2) years. The children underwent a caffeine loading test to determine CYP1A2 activity. To assess the later effects on thyroid function we measured plasma TSH and FT4. STUDY DESIGN: A longitudinal cohort of 37 healthy children (age 7-12, mean 8.2 years), with documented prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure, ingested 3mg caffeine/kg BW 6h prior to blood withdrawal. Paraxanthine/caffeine molar ratio, ALAT, ASAT, TSH and FT4 were determined in venous blood. RESULTS: Linear regression of ASAT and ALAT revealed no relation with prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure. No correlation was found between the paraxanthine/caffeine molar ratio and prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure. Linear regression of TSH and FT4 revealed no relation with prenatal and lactational dioxin exposure. CONCLUSION: This follow-up has shown a normalisation of previously abnormal ALAT and ASAT levels, indicating a transient effect. CYP1A2 activity, measured by means of a caffeine-loading test, revealed no correlation with the prenatal and lactational exposures. A normalisation of previously abnormal thyroid hormone homeostasis was seen, also possibly indicating a transient effect. This study provides new data on long-term follow-up after perinatal dioxin exposure to background levels of dioxins.